dan/california

I am not entirely clear on the total payload required. I also assume it works better if everything but the antenna is hidden in a basement, or an irrigation culvert. But in terms of a system I would be actively trying to develop, doing it by drone would be high on my list.

This was REALLY interesting yesterday. A think tank guy who specializes in EW and comms had a fascinating suggestion. The way the Ukrainians completely bleeped Russian communications in Kursk was by sending special forces behind Russian lines to set up jammers BETWEEN the front line units and their commanders. That gave them the effective signal strength to cut off Russian frontline units more or less completely. He also made the point that the force density in Donestk makes things like tis more or less impossible.

This how Ukraine wins the war, surrendering needs to be the least scary option for Russian soldiers. Work backwards from this, on more or less everything. In an ideal world shooting the blocking troops would be their next option, but I am not even sure how often that happened in 1917. I think it is more or less unheard of since.

I am thinking those nifty 70mm rockets with laser guidance will work just fine.

The Russians are systematically awful from the top down, as a matter of state policy, and far to many of them seem to enjoy it. Having said that, and looking back at the end of WW2, we hung about one percent of the Germans that deserved it, may be less. But eighty years on it is hard to argue that mercy, even undeserved mercy, was the wrong course. Even bad people mostly behave if you build a good system. So you have to start by asking what will let you build a decent system. I don't know how to fix Russia, not a clue, other than the old joke about I wouldn't start from here. But I do know what Ukraine needs first and worst. They need to the Russians to quit and leave. Now there are two sides of that coin. One is that every Russian soldier that is still fighting needs to think every minute, of every day, that he is going to die miserably and soon, without so much a grave marker for the burnt and scattered pieces. But the other side of that coin is encouraging mass surrenders, because that, and/or a coup in Moscow, is what will make it STOP.

They meant to say they hid in some farmers cellar until the food and booze were gone. But if they are going to get exchanged I give them full points for playing the game well.

https://www.threads.net/?xmt=AQGzY9l78sum5bvc-2KJFaU8Rrl9q-3l7DyQ5gdZzx-ZR8U Daily casualty report on the Russians 1300 +personnel, and 59 guns. Russia has to run out of one or te other eventually, right?

Cool vid of breaching operation.

The Russians seem to be stuck between bad choices in Kursk. They can try to push forces forward under the all seeing eye, or give ground.

Saractosaurus is usually a pessimist. This update is uhm NOT pessimistic.

The Russians think that being utterly awful will terrify people into submission. But that only works on people that can't shoot back. When you can shoot back it simply convinces you there is no other choice than shooting.

A real increase in surrenders is how Ukraine wins this war. Russian POWS need to be eating good borscht, and watching soccer games. It seems wrong, but that is the winning play here. If I can be forgiven an attack of overwhelming optimism...Russian POWs going back to Russia with memories of relatively positive treatment might be of at least some help with the post war situation, maybe, if the dominoes fell just right.

If Ukraine is feeling ambitious? And they can cause the Russian troops on the wrong side of that river to panic? Two big ifs to be sure, that river would make a fantastic place to anchor a new front line. Edit: Also, who else thinks that bridge was hit by something much bigger than a GMLRS?

Russian SPGs getting deleted, the video gives me the feeling that some of these hits were done with something higher grade than the usual modified civilian stuff.

Several Russian supply trucks meeting bad ends. The Kursk incursion seems to have forced the Russians to move a lot of stuff in a much more exposed manner. it appears the Ukrainians were prepared to make that expensive.

I am pretty sure this thing would go through both sides of any battle ship ever built.

They are clearly desperate enough to throw virtually anything into this in the hopes of being able to stop it before they have to start pulling real combat power out of Donetsk. But given that previous analysis of Russian missile parts in Ukraine implies things are going from the factory to expended in a month it seems like the are at great risk of completely depleting their supply. That might be realy good for the Ukrainian power system come winter, among other things. Also this tape does not make it at all clear they got the tank. It is one thing to shoot at a whole platoon that has parked to do whatever. Shooting this kind of missile at a tank that is rapidly maneuvering just doesn't seem like a high percentage shot. They probably hit the road the tank had been on, it is not at all clear it was still there.

Has there EVER been a fair trial in Russia? Once in the last thousand years?

I think this guy gets spotted because he doesn't have gloves or camo paint on his hands. War under the gaze of the all seeing eye is harsh. Also, being the EW guys entitles you to special attention.

The one thing we haven't seen mucH of on Kursk is killed or captured Russian officers, not yet at least. How much of that is them simply running away like they mean it? And how much of it is the Russian's learning at least a few lessons about communications security and so on.

If HIMARS are so effective that Russia feels the need to hunt them with Iskanders, well all I can say is send more HIMARS. Send ALL the HIMARS!

An excellent example of how effective FPV use depends on higher flying recon drones.

The successes capturing POWs in Kursk are unlikely to be repeated in the areas to the south that been fought over for years. In addition to the extraordinarily poor quality of the troops themselves in Kursk, the entire coercive apparatus of the "new model" Russian military hasn't been emplaced behind the lines for tens of kilometers. The people who will shoot you for retreating, the artillery that will shell you for trying to surrender, and, and, and...Kursk apparently had none of that, or almost none of it anyway. So the only way these kind of large scale surrenders can happen in Donestk is if the Russian military system truly breaks. Now if that did happen I would hazard to speculate the Ukraine wins the war about a day later. Then we can all move on to whether there is a clean and organized coup in Moscow, or whether the Grand Duchy of Uralstan eventually gets a UN seat. Sadly we aren't there yet.

True....