dan/california

All of the above is just one example of how even medium budget purpose built military drones with significant AI, even for targeting in the last kilometer, will turn the volume up to 11 as soon as someone builds a real automated line to build the things. Of course the way Russian oil refineries are bursting into flames the Ukrainians seem to have taken this thought to heart. Among other things it seems like longer range drones could move "back" to the terrain following guidance the U.S. used for its cruise missiles before GPS, with image recognition for the last bit.

You are quite right that the election was simply a bad joke. Putins cronies put numbers from 75 to 100 percent on a wall, or perhaps a handy political prisoner, an threw darts at them. Unless of course the Czar himself had a preference. Having said that, expecting our Ukrainian friends to be entirely rational about Russia two years into an existential war is perhaps more than can reasonably be asked for. And that "party" outside of the Russian embassy is exhibit one on why we STILL need a visa ban.

Another take on the same basic thing. He seems to think Putin is at least considering changing out some of his top people for younger models that can that can be relied on for the rests of Putin's presidency/life. In part this seems to be an attempt to forestall anyone developing anything resembling an power base. Let us hope he chooses poorly.

Caesar felt the same way about his German bodyguard/calvary. The more things change....

The more forward looking U.S. military stuff is starting to refer to the FLOS, and the FLOR. The forward line of sensors, and the forward line of robots. This would seem to be case study.

We really missed the boat not getting Afghans who were not on the Taliban's good side set up in Ukraine with their whole families. It worked really well with the Chechen exiles.

It is amazing what happens when you pay cash in hard currency. Edit: And the Czech President deserves a top job at NATO or the EU for getting this one edit: done! In midst of and endless blathering panic he has gotten shells on trains and headed to the front.

There is at least some evidence that DARPA is working on an MHD drive. Apparently one of the biggest problem is that the electrodes wear out, that matters a lot less when it only has to work for ten kilometers, once.

But there no reason at all the UUVs can't come in slow and quiet. That is why I agree with The_Capt about big ships, unless somebody makes a major breakthrough. On the plus side if Taiwan gets on this bandwagon the way it should, the bill the Chinese would have to pay to invade would be astronomically higher. Naval dolphins may become a MUCH bigger thing.

A couple of years from now I expect that anything we now consider a major surface combatant will have a continuous circuit of drones somewhere between two and ten kilometers out. I suspect that looking for the wakes of the USVs might be one of the more effective strategies, at least until they start to operate underwater full time. Barring a full bore physics/engineering miracle I am not sure underwater USVs are a solvable problem. And a tech break thru that size would be truly world shaking since I suspect it could https://www.threads.net/@meme.lawd.kenya/post/C4kOhTDs1VO In this interview I referenced earlier about Russia's nuclear threats, Koffman states that he didn't think the Russians have been all that close to using nukes yet. But he also thinks it IS a real risk if regime survival is at stake. It will be very interesting to see what the Kremlin says about the campaign against its refining capacity once it is done with its fake election silliness. I can see at least a possibility that Putin goes all in threatening nuclear retaliation over them once it doesn't interfere with the everything is fine theme he has been pushing for this so called campaign.

Burn baby burn! Is there a good source for Russias daily/weekly production of refined petroleum products? I vaguely remember something about a commodities firm that tried to track the level of more or less every large storage tank on earth by satellite? If Ukraine can really dent Russian refining capacity it will be as big a success as they have had in this war.

An interview with Koffman about the risk of Russian nuclear escalation. He makes some good points. He also unintentionally makes an excellent, though unintentional, case that Poland needs its own nukes.

You can go to Siberia for a PR stunt, or you can go to Siberia for railroad sabotage. Choose wisely.

Rarely is the karma for asking a stupid question quite this fast, and quite this harsh.

If Bil H was a general on the Russian side they would be in Lviv... We deeply appreciate the opportunity to audit staff college for free! I suspect the thing that is not being talked up is some level of support from some portion of the Chinese military industrial complex. But this is also more proof of the basic fact that cell phone tech makes drones so easy ANYBODY can do it. As The_Capt keeps saying, that is simply world changing. I also think it implies the Burmese Junta is bleeped...

There are a number of MLRS and artillery delivered mining systems now, and we have seen individual mines delivered by drones. Given the sheer size of something like the standard Soviet antitank mine I think it would take a fairly large glider/parachute to deliver it. I think The_Capt's vision of them marching the last kilometer on insectoid legs, and then looking for just the right clump of weeds to hide under is more doable. My new rule of modern warfare is never do anything with an expensive airplane, if it can be done with a cheap pick up truck.

The several trillion dollar question is whether changes in technology have made Iraq War levels of air dominance unachievable. Especially since small drones have pretty much punctured the concept of perfect air defenses that are at least as important to the modern version of blitzkrieg as offensive side. We have built an enormous tower of military assumptions on the basis of air dominance, without it it is well and truly back to the drawing board. And even if we could utterly cleanse the sky of Russian anything now? Can we do it to the Chinese in five or ten years?

It is real progress, and I expect them to get the rest of the way there Elon doesn't flame out in some spectacular fashion. At a 100kg to orbit a LOT of things become economic that just are not now. I agree with this in theory, but rail guns, and that is essentially what this is, have been a little bit like laser weapons and fusion power. They are a decade or two out, and always will be. That said you never know when some materials science guy will crack the critical part of the problem, and AI is moving materials science right along.

Almost.... They are clearly making progress.

The part about Russia being better coordinated seems to contradict most of the other information we get. The NYT seems to consistently be talking to the most unhappy Ukrainian it can find.

They seem to be a couple of dozen hoses short.

My first thought is that member from states that have a top two primary, as opposed to the more common partisan variety might be more vulnerable to pressure on this, although Jayapul seems unmovable in WA-7.

Oil refineries are the thing that Russia can't fix, can't move, and probably can't buy enough refined products on the world market to replace. Ukraine needs to keep the hammering on this. The Russian Orlan/Zala operational class UAVs have been a problem since the beginning of the war, it needs solving. Much more so than smaller drones it seems like they could be engaged by other drones of the same general performance level. I still don't have a good idea why this hasn't happened. And if any of the laser widgets work they ought be in Ukraine demonstrating it in this same role. You don't even have to shoot them down, just fry the camera sensor. Edit: Would F-16s be better at this than the Soviet ere stuff Ukraine currently has, or would the have to fly to high, to close to the front? It isn't nearly as flashy as launching cruise missiles at Sebastopol, but it might be more important.

The resources in this post are extremely useful. My rep has signed, but there is enough information to really look at which Dems haven't, and might be moveable. Then get started on the most likely Republicans.