dan/california

That implies they can't even attempt a troop rotation.

one of the guys looks to be at least 40, too.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/27/opinion/ukraine-russia-us-diplomacy.html It is stunning that two major figures in the national security establishment can publish something this bad. Doubly so when we are on the verge of sending home the army that has been the bogey man of the last 80 years in little tiny broken pieces.

There is also a large open question about how much of the very abused, very unhappy, periphery either faction will be able to hold. For the record I think the ultra nationalist urge to draft every male between 15 and 55 will be met with a shocking lack of enthusiasm. Doubly so when any poor fools the recruiters catch realize they are going into battle with bolt action rifles and 70 year old helmets.

Kessel de Kherson, it will be the new national dish. Whole restaurant chains will be built around it.

I have hade that thought a number of times in the last months. He learned a great deal in the Great War, and distilled it masterfully. Scholz would benefit from watching this bit thirty or forty times

Peace to their families Glory to Ukraine Napalm to the Russians

There will be an after war accounting soon enough, I suspect there won't be a single living Russian soldier In Ukraine outside of a POW camp when final tally gets counted up.

I am, slightly, worried that the UKR is being too cute by half and letting the Russians accumulate too much combat power on the west bank of the River. They need to COMPLETELY drop the bridges and take the bird in hand instead of trying to win the war in a single stroke. Hopefully I am wrong and the UKR general staff are doing their usual brilliant job, but this feels risky.

HIMARS has Russian losses back up in the range of a battlegroup per day. Kherson is a trap for one side or the other. My bet is Putin is playing General, and the Russian army is going to be very sorry.

A brilliant plan for a short victorious war almost never works out. Doubling down until 80% of your army is drawn in and still losing has a poor prognosis. Grigb your stuff is priceless as always. I also hope someone, more like several someones, at the relevant three letter agencies is keeping as good an eye on these wanna be Genocidaires as you are. I don't know if the outside world has much ability to influence a Russian civil war, but I suspect we will not have much choice about trying. Ukraine still needs to be supported all the way to victory, winning might be scary but I guarantee that losing is much worse. I do think this reinforces my theory that most of the Russian moves in Ukraine are now positioning for the after Putin power struggle. Whoever gets the blame for the defeat loses the civil war.

This is the latest map I have seen. It is my vague understanding that the Ukrainians can bring most or all of the access too the salient under fire. There was a lot of chatter, and then none at all. The situation may be very fluid. The number of Russian troops in the village has been quoted as anywhere between two hundred and two thousand.

We couldn't put anything in. naval base there we didn't want to lose in the first five minutes of hostilities. I am advocating Marines instead of army because they are more inclined to small unit dispersed action. The basing would need to be spread out to give the most difficult possible first strike target. And their logistical support likewise. Hide HIMARS and other missile systems all over the Island.

We will see if that opinion survives France having a warm and comfortable winter.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/25/us/politics/china-taiwan-biden-pelosi.html Put a Marine division on the Island, now, TODAY. Ukraine happened because we were afraid to commit before the start of hostilities. Let's not make the same mistake twice. Absolutely NONE of the pre 2./24 questions about Ukraines government, or governance apply here. Indeed I would argue it is one of the better run and most democratic countries in the world. Oh yeah, and a war there will wreck the global economy COMPLETELY. So maybe we want to get ahead of the problem this time.

The alternative theory is that Germany will have a NEW political elite by spring. The greens have a golden opportunity to become the biggest party in Germany by going 100% anti-Putin and pro nuclear, While branding Scholz's party as outright traitors. Schroder is in Berlin doing the heavy lifting for them as I type. There is no need to lie when the truth is damning. And yes the pro nuclear bit is huge reversal for the greens, but they can lay out the actual facts. Global warming and Vladimir Putin are a LOT more dangerous than nuclear power. Just look at how much better off the French are in this mess with an ~80% nuclear grid.

They have been using some of them all the way along, I suspect they have worn out the barrels and need to draw new ones just maintain current units. There is a post of one with a burst barrel a few pages back. I also suspect this new draw is in crap shape if they have been stored outdoors.

Kherson is a trap for one side or the other. Those nice neat lines of holes in the bridges argue pretty strongly that it is Russians sticking their unmentionables in a meat grinder. Another of attack of Putin playing general?

And he is as credible a source as exists in war zone.

MAybe they have rigged some NATO hardpoints to their Su-25s, but they have been really quiet about it.

Does someone have a ground launched one besides the Israelis? or is this a subtle way of saying that Ukraine is getting a NATO aircraft of some description.

Putin understands that going nuclear is not going to make anything better. If he forgets NATO planes should just start killing every Russian soldier in Ukraine, a no fly zone is insufficient. Steve can spend the next one hundred years pointing out that the AI may be awful, but it is better than actual Russian officers. This might be the most revealing anecdote yet of how the RU armed forces reached their current state of pitiful disarray.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/24/world/europe/ukraine-war-mariupol-azovstal.html I don't love the tone, but it has a LOT of details.

I really want to know what the measurement was at the other end. I guess we already knew what Russian quality control was....

https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2022/07/20/software-developers-aspire-to-forecast-who-will-win-a-battle A rundown of various military sim and simulation software. I am quite peeved Combat Mission did not make the list. Also it specifically mentions that the Ukrainian military is asking for more help than it is getting in this regard, they specifically mentioned mission planning and simulation software would save lives. Steve might want to see if Haiduk can get somebody on the phone.