dan/california

Interesting thread. The short version, their systems integration is lousy, and the designers assume vastly better trained operators than they actually have.

The systems thus far are not incorporating real vaguely neuro-simulating AI systems, among other things these systems, like human being are very hard to completely verify. I still think the long term value is worth the effort, cars kill a LOT of people.

The_Capn I am only on page four of this paper but I am absolutely sure you want to read. So does Steve.

I suspect this eagle and the Russian army could have a long conversation about biting off more than you can chew.

What he said, exactly, What they need to protect is a war winning offensive. It will take years to produce enough to cover most of the high density civilian areas, unless the Norwegians have four or five separate miracles up their sleeves. At least here will be ammo.

At least Steves sense of humor is holding up and he hasn't said that the next version will be national security customers only. That is something, I guess. Did you ever try to get ahold of the Ukrainian MOD. I mean you already have maps built for a fair bit of the place.

Yes, but if Ukraine had enough mobile systems to cover one decently sized offensive effort they would already have besieged Nova Khahova and cut the Russian forces on the west side in half. And short of my rather extreme suggestion above the best thing for every civilian in Ukraine is to win the bleeping war.

Even the tiniest of bones about the next game you might want to share?

If anybody involved has any sense it will be for as much of both as they can get, and as fast as they can get them. Does anybody know if the missiles themselves have to be modified from the air launched versions? If not They could be pulled Existing NATO stocks, This is another factory that needs to be copied four times over, and run 24/7. It is looking like Taiwan will need an infinity of them, too.

The following is an utterly ruthless suggestion I do not endorse. If the Russians get fifty thousand troops in the flood zone of the Nova Khahova dam. What happens if the Ukrainians blow the bleeping thing and leave all of them trapped in a sea of mud? I realize that this would have huge implications for both Ukrainian civilians and the world food situation. But would it win the war in a day? A couple of thousand Russian tanks and AFVs trapped in mud to the turrets just waiting to be collected for scrap. Troops trying to walk out through hip deep mud with no supplies? What little I can find on the Hydrology implies the flooding would be infinitely worse in Russian held ares than Ukrainian ones.

Any clue what that works out too in actual manpower? The definition of a battlegroup has gotten sort of flexible lately. Also any indication of the number of guns and AFVs? I am just trying to get an approximate idea of how much tonnage has to cross the Dnipro every day to keep those forces functional. I realize that this may not be available from public sources.

This sort sums up the conundrum of the Russian position in Kherson. The Russians can't hold any ground outside of artillery coverage, But if they pull their guns back to the East/South side Then Ukrainian guns will very shortly be in range of the river crossings with 155, and the minute Ukrainians can range the river with regular 155 rounds as opposed to the expensive rocket assisted ones, and GMLRS The Russians go from a bad supply situation, to NO supply situation. No supplies means they get to just leave. So they have to try and hold well on the OTHER side of the river or just leave.

I wonder if you could do a thermite warhead for GMLRS that would just melt a three to five foot hole through a bridge. I doubt the project would ever get traction because the U.S. uses other things to drop bridges.

Translation says he was a sergeant in command of Motor Rifle company. Either google is a little off, or Russias war is just going that well. I wonder who is in charge now?

If you want to think about how hard complicated human activities are to predict, look back at economic projections in 1960. It was not , I mean NOT, generally accepted that Taiwan and South Korea would become wildly prosperous and vital pillars of the world economy. There are elements of both chaos and path dependency that may limit what prediction can do.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1553149093454684162/photo/1 great set of maps of Kherson situation.

The question is can data be massaged to enable some nice curve fits with massaging it too uselessness. Or is the vastly more ambitious idea below necessary, So on the off chance some ambitious soul with a security clearance is looking a subject for his computer science/AI phd, has natural language programming reached the point where it could basically digest the thread and turn it into code, and then feed it all the data the classified date that is sitting on NATO hard drives? Does anything useful result from this exercise? actually it would be logical for them to be 40 or 50 km further back, and well dispersed. That seems to be beyond the Russians though, and they are going to lose this war as a result. Tanks without APS being obsolete is a given, this war has proven it more or less beyond question. The thing that remains undecided is whether or not tanks WITH good APS are obsolete, or at least uneconomic. There have been four basic categories of things killing tanks in this war, ATGMs, other tanks, land mines, and artillery. Even an M1A3 SEP only really helps with two of those categories. Even if it is 95% better at dealing with ATGMs, and other tanks, is worth the total cost and logistical burden if it is still vulnerable to the other two? This is a very real question, and the next twenty years of ground warfare procurement depends on what you think the answer is. My personnel opinion is that a really high tech multispectral ghillie suit is the next big thing. https://www.google.com/search?q=f+ukraine+quits+fighting+there+is+no+more.+ukraine&sxsrf=ALiCzsY4-IFlJRPxspO6knZOU02AUQTBbQ:1659134807554&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj2vNrmlp_5AhWxGTQIHRv6D5wQ_AUoAnoECAEQBA&biw=1393&bih=730&dpr=2#imgrc=55PkUlt4L312xM And one last thought, each sides will is heavily affected by what it perceives as the stakes, see the photo above.

The Russian regime literally amoral. they don't even understand what the word means. The only available way to educate them is sending back CARGO 200 until the Russians run out of zinc and have to switch to wooden coffins. Hopefully these BLATANT warcrimes will get ATACMS and the state sponsorship of terrorism done.

My personal opinion: Kherson proper, and the bridge close to it are already in the outer limits of 155 range. If the Ukrainians can get within 155 range of Nova Khakova the Russian position on the west/north side of the Dnipro will just disintegrate as the supply situation goes from bad too non existent. My read mk1 eyeball map read is that the Ukr need to make 15k from their current Inhulet's crossing. Thoughts?

HURRAY! Ukrainian city names are not easy. Can I make one tiny extra request? Please put a scale on the maps? It really helps.

https://www.mriyaaid.org/ my personal choice, there many others. The intelligence in the run up to THIS war shows how hard it is to judge this. Exactly nothing has gone according to expectations. We have to remember that in trying to look forward. In Ukraine, as in many wars, the motivations of the two sides are wildly asymmetric, that just makes assessing the whole thing even harder.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/27/ukraine-win-war-us-stronger-weapons-russia/ What he said!

Forgive me but I am going to refer back to Lenin again. Lenin came to power through a vanishingly unlikely series of events, but he managed somehow not to get messily dead, and seized the reins with both hands when the chance came. Specifically he realized that the only people whose opinion mattered were those of the military forces around St Petersburg. Those forces wanted peace with Germany at any price, because they believed that being sent to the front was a death sentence. So in complete defiance of elite public opinion, that is what Lenin promised them, and they made him Czar. I realize this is a gross simplification but it isn't wrong. Now I don't really have a deep understanding of what the people with guns in and around Moscow count as their hearts desire. I will however bet a case of VERY good whiskey that Girkin at least thinks that he does. If he is correct he is a very dangerous man.

Except you just described Lenin perfectly....

https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/special-focus/ukraine-crisis/yale-study-russian-economy-hit-sanctions If even half of this report is true Putin is going to have an attack of playing nice soon.