dan/california

BRILLIANT! If Ukraine can get memes like this bouncing around the Russian info sphere it will do real damage to Putin's regime. As we just saw in Bangladesh, autocratic regimes have a tipping point. Once the center of political gravity gets pushed to far over, the whole thing comes down. I am being excessive, but can we get one or two trucks of washing machines shipped to the biggest population area the Ukrainians have seized? Preferably in blue and yellow paint colors with Zelensky's picture on them?

Armored Top Hat wins a round... Edit: Of course great deal of what is happening comes down to Ukraine gaining at least temporary superiority in the drone battle. As we have speculated a number of times, the side whose bubble collapses just gets WRECKED.

The Russians may not be doing much fighting, but dying and surrendering both seem to be happening in some quantity. The Russians seem to be completely dislocated, at least for now. How long before they get organized, and some EW countermeasures worked out?

As much fun as that would be, Ukraine is better off taking the high road on anything clearly civilian. Honestly just starting this rumor about a referendum is probably the most effective thing they could have possibly done. I mean obviously they will wreck the fuel infrastructure, the railroads, and any bridge they have have time to rig on the way out. Oh, and the FSB offices and such. Otherwise I think it would be far more effective to leave some carefully done leaflets in Russian, and maybe USB keys that let them access the internet outside of Russia, if that is possible.

Of course it is even more effective propaganda if the video itself is real. The guys face is in it clear as day, it ought to be verifiable one way or another. In fact he is so recognizable that he ought to be asking for Ukrainian residency regardless. The FSB might take a dim view of his performance/rant.

We are having to much fun with this, MORE PLEASE!

Lucky I wasn't holding any liquid when I read this, it is LOL funny. It would take a brave apparatchik to show this to Putin.

We will check back in a week...

ISW says they don't know anything about the Kursk operation, and what they do know, they aren't telling. They seem to want the Russians to figure it out all own their lonesome.

It works right for me, can someone else check? I will take it down if it is a bad link.

Artistic building disassembly...

And if they could take all of it the wedge in question they would not be defending meaningfully more frontage than they are now.

The level of effort the opsec must have taken to make this work is just staggering. Already seen one by somebody...

ISW only updates once a day, But last evenings is still worth your time. Separately, I would like to renew a previous question. Assuming Ukraine in fact has control of this gas junction at Suzdha, what can they do with it? I mean obviously they could blow it up, but can they do anything else? Shift gas to Ukraine and a away from whaterver portion of Russia this thing serves?

Well at a minimum they are faking this guy.

And if the Russians have any reserves...?

Ukrainian forces are approaching this rail line on a broad front. If the goal is to break stuff and leave, utterly trashing a few kilometers of this line would be a rational goal. If they are trying to be insanely ambitious it is about the same distance to Kursk, and Belgorod. Belgorod would seem to have more short term military utility given how important it is as a logistics hub. Faking towardsKkursk before swinging southwest towards Belgorod would certainly be artistic. Of course it is only insanely ambitious if they don't have the forces...

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/war-on-the-rocks/id682478916?i=1000664607929 A really good podcast about the difficulties of adapting to a world where few , expensive, and exquisite is just not going to work. A lot of it is theoretical and cyber focused, but not all off it. Cyber, EW, an a lot of other things in Ukraine work on two week cycle, or LESS. The rest of the world is not ready for this, not even a little bit.

Is it possible that either the Ukrainian deep strike campaign has truly disrupted the supply of of glide bombs? Or has someone finally figured out how to jam whatever they are using for a guidance signal? If either of these things are true? and I really don't think we know that, yet? How long will it hold for?

I really would like someone to explain what Ukraine can and cannot do with the gas junction, if in fact they have it. I find it interesting that the Russians are not threatening to blow it up. What this really proves is tha the Russians are on the limit, in terms of both physical, and cognitive, resources. Someone knew the defenses here were very thin, someone almost certainly knew the Ukrainians were preparing for something. Russia couldn't shift away from other commitments fast enough to stop it. whether the Ukrainians will gain or lose in the end from this effort is simply not known yet, but it is never bad to make the other side scramble. Two larger scale issues. We keep saying that Ukraine needs to fight this war politely, with zero risky moves of various sorts. Yet we send them about half the equipment they need, and tell them that they can shoot some weapons at some airbases, but not other weapons at other airbases. I don't think they will do anything crazy with the Kursk nuclear plant, and I don't think they should. But it is a very bad assumption that Ukraine won't do SOMETHING, if their situation gets desperate enough. So maybe we should not let that happen. This is also a useful corrective for Jake Sullivans conviction that he can control the entire glide path of this conflict at will. The safe thing to do is WIN, and always has been. Last but not least you mentioned a while back that "The West" has forgotten about how to deal with a real enemy, as opposed to a severe annoyance. Somewhere in this discussion is more proof of that.

Yes it would!

This is the first thing I have read from this guy, but he almost seems to condense the threads (sort of) consensus, in slightly different language.

Are there any of those left? It just so happens Iran has also started screaming for advanced SAM systems. The Russians have a break point too, and autocratic regimes are more likely to go over the cliff without so much as tapping the brake. At least that is my reading of history.