Sarjen
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Posts posted by Sarjen
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I still cant get my mind straight to get a reason why Putin began the war now.
Nordstream2 was built and ready to transfer in short notice natural gas to Germany and the EU. Europe ignored for too long the consequences a possible cessation of all Russian natural gas transit through Ukraine to the EU would cause. Both in social as well as technical terms it would have heavily affected Ukraine. The upkeep for the pipeline in Ukraine is high and could have become financially unviable to operate once Russia would have ceased all gas transit. The pipeline is vital to Ukraine's chemical and heavy industry. And for Russia the geo-economic leverage the Ukraine had over them through its control of a share of Russian gas exports would have been gone. A subversion of the economic and social life of the brother nation may, in fact, be a main function of the entire logistically and economically, in fact, unnecessary Nordstream2 project.
So why by all means did Putin rush to the war? And with a bad start too? Why did he not wait a bit longer for the economic downfall of Ukraine. Why didn't he use the normal way of subterfuge and propaganda to get a more cheap victory?
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And Belarus won't join Russian war in Ukraine? Could that be true?
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And now to something to get a smile on your face:
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So the consensus here is that Putin will up the weight and contribute the next 1/4 of his forces to get Kyiv and Charkiw. He will start to attack the cities with artilley and cruise missiles while sending the army of Belarus to the west of Ukraine to cut them from supplies of the west.
What do you think will the West do, once the civilian casualties of the population become intolerable? Do you think NATO, EU or independent nations that border to Ukraine will act to hold a relief corridor open? Or declare the western half of Ukraine as a NOFLY-zone to protect the evacuees? Or do you think they will do nothing in fear of nuclear retaliation?
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2 hours ago, Andy_101 said:
Very interesting twitter thread here relating to Aleksandra Dugin who has apparently been a big influence on Putin's ideology/philosophy .
https://twitter.com/TobyVenables/status/14979163#22469928960?s=20&t=KzqCcXBuSmZk5cIOLfX35w
Thanks for the link. That is really important to know. Putins ideology is in its core fascism and he is willing to do everyhting to get what Dugin detailed in his book "foundations of geopolitics". Putin is not a rationalist anymore but purely driven by ideology.
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The ruble, which was already at a historic low, down almost 30% so far. Russia's central bank is pushing back trading several hours ahead of what is likely an even bigger crash. We are truly in uncharted territory here.
I can't overstate how unprecedented this is. The ruble was at 25 to the dollar pre-2014 and 60 after the oil crash that year.
Most Russians don't have savings. 20m are in poverty. Migrants send remittances to Central Asia. It's ordinary people who will really suffer.
Russian bank is offering dollars at the rate of 166 rubles. The 120 ruble rate they had last night, or 130 ruble rate they had 45 minutes ago, was a steal by comparison
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3 hours ago, Sarjen said:
A good move for the EU would be now to announce an EU membership perspective for Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. Thus they dont have to be invited into the NATO and still be under the EU mutual aid guarantee. Furthermore it challenges the neo-imperialist Russian elite. In view of the high popularity of Europe in Russia, it would suggest to ordinary Russians that the future of post-Soviet states is not predetermined by their common past as parts of the Tsarist and Soviet empires. And conjuring up an image of an allegedly existential security threat to the Russian nation would not easily work regarding a possible enlargement of the EU to the east.
Well. I think I got that right. Ukraine is "one of us and we want them in the European Union,” Ursula von der Leyen has told Euronews.
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There is a rumor in german armor ongoing, that 50 decommissioned Gepard Air Defense tanks, which are now at the manufacturers garage, could be reactivated and sent to Ukraine. A former Gepard commander has volunteered to be the instructor for the ukrainian soldiers as the Gepard is a tad more complicated as a NLAW ...
I dont like to spread rumor but i like the Gepard. So take it with a grain of hope from my side that the old cats are back in action soon.
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20 minutes ago, borg said:
So - asking for myself, in all sincerity - what does it mean to the average Russian living in Russia ? Can they work, buy food and goods ? What happens to cost of living ?
Well. The true major hit the economy will take is from the frozen assets of the Central Bank. I found the following explanation very helpful to understand the whole sanctioning:
"Russia currently holds about $640 billion in reserves. About 32% held in euros, 22% in gold, 16% in dollars, and 13% in Yuan. Most of that gold is held domestically and beyond the reach of sanctions. But about $300 billion in reserves are held abroad. Freezing those will prevent the Bank of Russia from using them for things like currency interventions or transfers to the Russian Treasury to spend. We're already seeing the ruble fall to its lowest levels ever as holders of rubles rush to exchange them for other currencies they think are safer stores of wealth. This is typical in crises - people trust dollars more than rubles to hold value.
Currencies are bought and sold on international foreign exchange markets. Like any traded good, their price (or exchange rate) is a function of supply and demand. Demand for the ruble is plummeting: people are selling them in exchange for dollars/euros. This means that the market is being flooded with rubles that nobody really wants, so supply is increasing. Falling demand and rising supply means the "price" of the ruble is dropping, or weakening.
A crashing ruble is bad for consumers: they get fewer imported goods for their rubles AND fewer domestic goods (reduced purchasing power). Put another way, it takes more rubles to buy the same stuff as before. That's called inflation, and it can get quite severe. high inflation is generally bad for economic growth, and hyperinflation is historically associated with severe recession/depression. That's bad for ordinary folks and, say, governments who are waging costly wars with their neighbors.
This is why central banks often intervene in currency markets to stabilize their currency: spend your reserves (dollars, euros, gold, etc) and buy up rubles to reduce the supply and prop up the exchange rate. But what happens when you burn through your reserves? You can't support your exchange rate by buying up excess rubles, and the currency crashes. That's what we saw in Russia in 1998, and that's what precipitated a major economic meltdown.
What happens if you have reserves but you can't access most of them for currency interventions? Or you're not allowed to exchange your dollars and euros for rubles? That's what sanctioning the Bank of Russia could do, and it would have the same effect: unchecked freefall. Rubles could (in theory) become close to worthless, with ordinary citizens conducting exchange in dollars. That would have to be on the black market, since it's technically illegal to pay for things with dollars/euros directly. Dollars will be scarce & precious on the street.
But many Russians will probably continue to get paid in rubles, which won't be worth much for basic necessities. Remember those pictures from Weimar Germany of folks with carts full of worthless cash? It wouldn't look like that today, but the effect could be the same."
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A good move for the EU would be now to announce an EU membership perspective for Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. Thus they dont have to be invited into the NATO and still be under the EU mutual aid guarantee. Furthermore it challenges the neo-imperialist Russian elite. In view of the high popularity of Europe in Russia, it would suggest to ordinary Russians that the future of post-Soviet states is not predetermined by their common past as parts of the Tsarist and Soviet empires. And conjuring up an image of an allegedly existential security threat to the Russian nation would not easily work regarding a possible enlargement of the EU to the east.
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Netherlands contribution to Ukraine is on the way.
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Regarding the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia: the Donets Basin is only a means to an end. Unlike Crimea, the Donbass does not play a military or geostrategic role for the Kremlin. Moscow does not need the Donbass; it serves only as a lever to destabilize and influence Ukraine. A compromise on the Donbass would therefore not satisfy Moscow's real interests. But it would show Moscow, that the western nations are still weak.
The Kremlin might infer that further concessions would be possible: For example, it could calculate that if the West were willing to ignore international law to resolve the Donbass conflict, something could be derived from this for the Transnistria conflict. Could Biden, von der Leyen, Scholz and Macron talk to Selensky about reopening the North Crimean Canal and restoring fresh water supplies to Crimea? Could Washington and Brussels not lobby Kiev to respect the multicultural history of Odessa and Bessarabia and support Moscow in creating two autonomous regions in southern Ukraine? And so on and so forth. Putin will not end until he has the whole of Ukraine.
But all in all i think the people of Ukraine won't allow an agreement with abandonment of the Donbass. And then there are the reparations payments Russia has to do. Ukraine won't allow Russia to not pay for the damage.
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4 hours ago, John Kettler said:
DesertFox,
The caption on the Molotov cocktail video is incorrect. Those are not tanks. For sure, the first is a VDV BMD-D, a command vehicle. The other one appears to be another BMD-D, but the degree of obscuration is so high there that it's a likely correct, rather than a certainty.
All,
Wonder if Bellingcat, OSINTtechnical or similar is tallying the various destroyed or abandoned Russian AFVs, artillery, AD and MT? Believe much could be learned that way.
Regards,
John. KettlerThis guy is trying it.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
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3 minutes ago, db_zero said:
Hearing that large contingents of Chechen fighters are heading to Ukraine to assist Russia. These include "shock troops"
Doesn't surprise me. There are reports of supply and morale issues with Russian units. Don't know how good these Chechen fighters are, but I would guess they have some combat experience.
They are already fighting.
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1 hour ago, DesertFox said:
Not really. They only allow the Netherlands to hand over 300 Panzerfausts out of german production to Ukraine.
No. This time Germany will deliver 1000 Panzerfaust3 and 400 Stinger Manpads.
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15 hours ago, Lucky_Strike said:
Nice! Do I detect a bit of ReShade goodness?
Its just a bit of Post-Production.
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Campaign "Conrath`s Counterattack" in full swing.
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On 5/6/2021 at 2:39 AM, 111thGameBn said:
Has anyone else had the camera just randomly start spinning uncontrollably?
Yes. I explored the problem a bit more and found it related to NVidia settings in the graphics menu. Once i set the MFAA to off i got no more spinning and lagging mouse. Using an old Geforce GTX 1070. 3D Model Quality is set to improved.
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I assume that DoF has been added afterwards?
Yes, indeed.
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Ukranian infantry advancing across the battlefield.
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Dont hunt with a Priest ....
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As always .. outstanding effort and quality. Really enhances my gameplay.
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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by Sarjen
Democracy is working as long as every one can participate and the population is fed and get money. If a part of this is missing democracy is susceptible for populists and propaganda. And Russia is good at this.