riptides
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Posts posted by riptides
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2 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:
Interesting economic news here, not really sure I totally understand it. Would love for someone with more knowledge to come in and add something. Some are suggesting that the US allowed Russia to do this from a dollar denominated account despite the sanctions to shore up US investors.
Temporary sanction loophole?
More like draining Russian reserves. Faster.
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4 minutes ago, LukeFF said:
RSD75 is still live right now on FR24. It's taken a really weird flight path - up to the northeast over Siberia, then southeast towards the direction of Kharyyalakh, then southwest again towards Yekaterinburg (where the Czar and his family was killed).
With all this activity, I think I will eat a good meal tonight, tell my family and friends I love them. Earmark some new monies to Battlefront, get drunk and hope I wake up in the AM.
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At this rate the Russian Federation and alignment of countries will go to the EU or China.
Yikes!
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
Actually, saying so strongly that no NATO country is going to put forces into NATO has been quite helpful IMHO. Took a lot of possible wind out of Putin's propaganda sails. Imagine his people having video of a White House Briefing where someone was asked "will we deploy our troops into Ukraine now that Russia has attacked?" Any answer other than "No, that's not going to happen" would be spun into "yes, we're going to do exactly that".
It also is needed to reassure the domestic population that we're not going to actively tempt WW3. That allows the domestic Western population to instead focus on REAL help to Ukraine instead of worrying about it spiraling out of control.
I also think Putin went into this war assuming NATO would not put forces into Ukraine. It is the logical thing for him to conclude with good reason.
Don't bluff if you're not willing to be called on it. That's the lesson here.
Steve
Very astute.
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2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Sorry, coming a bit late to the discussion.
It seems that Russia's negotiations are finally showing evidence they know they've lost the war. But obviously Putin is still looking to have something to show for this fiasco. I think Ukraine can definitely get better terms very soon if they keep fighting.
If I were in Zelensky's shoes I would keep the war going if my military commanders were confident of victory. Russia stole two big chunks of territory and killed at least 14,000 Ukrainians the last time and Putin still came back for more. This won't end until Russia is in turmoil so badly that it questions ever fighting Ukraine ever again. It should already be clear, but I think Ukraine needs to press home that point more than it already has.
In any case, for sure The_Capt's point a few pages ago that Zelensky has to weigh a lot of very tough decisions. In particular the amount of suffering of citizens and infrastructure. This is the primary reason Ukraine agreed to Minsk 1 and 2, and for the most part Ukraine got what it wanted out of it short term. But long term... it got this war.
Let's keep in mind that what's being discussed between Russia and Ukraine is a cease fire, as far as I can tell, and not a peace deal. The two are not necessarily the same thing.
Steve
Zelensky and the Ukrainian people are fighting for their children's future. I think they know the sacrifices they are making now set the tone for generations.
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re -.1 40th artillery brigade strike...
I for one am dumbstruck at the distance between vehicles. And if I was in a BMP, no way would I get next to a truck.
Maybe they were on the move?
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40 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
Any ideas about why Russia would spend so many cruise missiles to attack that training base close to Lviv? They caused casualties, but also spent around 30 missiles.. that's a lot for what exactly? Some barracks blown up?
They were sending a message.
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I think with Belarus joining the fray militarily, this opens the door for other nations to pick sides and go at it.
NATO and the Russian Federation, not withstanding.
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11 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:
re: China
I personally don't think we can draw that many parallel with the current crisis. Despite the rhetoric, I doubt China has serious plans to invade Taiwan.
1. Taiwan has been independent for 70 years;
2. Taiwan has few natural resources. China is resource poor and a major aim of its foreign policy for the past 20 years has been to develop access to more natural resources;
3. The Chinese leadership is more risk adverse than Russia. Xi Jinping does not rule China, the Communist Party rules China. Xi does not have the same freedom of action that Putin has. One wrong move, like an invasion of Taiwan that does not work and he would be out.
What China wants to do, it is already doing, namely gaining control of the South China Seas and its natural resources.
You have to wonder if China steps in to "help" the Russians, in Russia.
Vladivostok, parts of Siberia. China has a long memory too.
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2 hours ago, Erwin said:
That sort of strategy takes a long time - and it was tried vs Japan and more recently Venezuela etc.
American economic "experts" expect a complete economic crash in Russia by April 15th.
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15 minutes ago, Erwin said:
If the Russians are ordered into urban combat then they would be "crazy". We all know how bloody MOUT is and how many troops are required. Population of Mosul: 1.8M Pop of Kviv: 2.8M.
Am still predicting that if the Russians can't get a knock out blow, they will go on the strategic defensive holding strategically important items like power plants and the "land bridge" linking Crimea to Russia. It's hard to see Ukraine being viable with some cities surrounded and large swathes of the country under Russian control. We can't kick them out like we did to ISIS. Can't see being able to conduct another "Berlin airlift" operation to supply cities like Kviv.
In addition, attacking Russians who are just trying to defend themselves will also greatly increase Ukrainian casualties and play into Russian propaganda akin rousing patriotic passions akin to those seen in the "Great Patriotic War" of WW2.
In any case the west keeps sending "defensive" weapons". The Polish plan offer seems to be falling apart. US spokesman says "...will not add much to Ukrainian power..." which sounds like a cop out.
What military forces does Ukraine have to go on the offensive with?
If the Russians can just sit there long enough Putin would get a "win" from the perspective of his Russian audience.
I think we are focused on Russian military staying power that does not take into account a Russian economy that is ceasing to exist.
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1 hour ago, DesertFox said:
In 100 metres turn left...
More like, in 500 metres make a U Turn.
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For some odd reason I am drawn to the Russian Generals who must be hearing something similar about their battle groups.
"General, I have no division..."-Major General George Edward Pickett to General Lee at Gettysburg July 3, 1863 -
Arms delivery and Western sanctions.
With businesses pulling out of Russia, and the financial system closed off, I give the Russian people a month before they start really getting PO'd.
The economic impact of Putins war has yet to be fully realized on the average Russian.
It's a race to the bottom, militarily and financially,
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7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
From Steve's keyboard to God's ears.
So what does this russian military collapse look like do you think?
I think it looks like current events. Shocked, beaten demoralized troops returning to Russia with the truth.
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4 minutes ago, keas66 said:
Saw some unconfirmed report about dozens of helicopters being destroyed on the ground by Ukrainian Navy around Kherson .
OSint has claims of 30-49 destroyed on the ground. Awaiting confirmation. Multiple sources.
If true, that would be a rather massive loss, and what kind of commander parks that much equipment in such a small area?
I guess reports of strategy, tactics and logistics are true too. IF the above is validated.
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21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
OK, now Russia's military is in big trouble! Microsoft just cut Russia off from new product releases, which includes PowerPoint. Since it is apparent PowerPoint is the only tool they used to create their invasion plans, how are they going to plan future operations?
Steve
Last I checked, I saw a detailed muster and battle plan written on paper. So I think they are one step ahead of MS in that regard.
That is another reason that convoy is stalled. You have to go to each vehicle for write off and status.
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17 minutes ago, dan/california said:
Military failure on an incomprehensible world historic scale.
FOUR of them. Four. That speaks volumes.
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27 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:
150 billion rubles? Gee...
I guess they are not keeping up with the Ruble value in todays market.
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The EU effort on transferring aircraft to Ukrainian pilots came and went a few days ago.
Getting US aircraft into the mix is a non-starter.
And those were surplus aircraft the Ukrainians are familiar with.
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The change in Russia attitude will happen in the coming days. When they go to the bank, when they try to go shopping, when they try to communicate to their families abroad. When their vacation plans have been interrupted and lastly when they go on social media and either cannot, or get redirected in some fashion.
The next few days are critical for the average urban Russian.
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6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Yes, and we have at least $400b in looted Russian treasure that could be used to make that peace work better.
Steve
I wonder if someone in the EU is running a cost/benefit analysis right now of going to war with Russia.
- The Russian army is stretched, looks logistically and geographically challenged
- The influx of refugees will stretch humanitarian relief efforts
- The Russian economic condition is collapsing
- Russian assets have been identified
- The cost of rebuilding Ukraine goes up my the minute
- The mood of the EU is galvanized on a threat
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5 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:
As far as i know this hasn't been mentioned before. Paranoid as I am, I expect the Russians to launch a wave of cyberattacks against the West any day now. I even took the precaution of taking some extra cash, in order to be able to pay the groceries when the bank systems go down.
For those of you that know about these things. Why hasn't this happened yet? I mean some time ago they could even make the whole system of Rotterdam Harbor crash, so what's holding/stopping them?
And equally important, would such a wave of cyberattacks be seen as an act of war against NATO?
I thought I saw an announcement from Russia that cyberattacks against its satellites would be considered an act of war. I can imagine that there is a whole list of infrastructures that have been talked of that are considered crossing the line.
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28 minutes ago, db_zero said:
Former NATO commander Wesley Clark-an American general wrote an opinion piece today saying if things continue and get really bad NATO will have to respond even if it means risking a confrontation with Russia. I disagree 100%. Any US or NATO direct involvement is off the table.
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Bosnia comes to mind. Will that change your stance?
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
I found this to be a good read. Especially on the food part.
https://newlinesmag.com/first-person/putins-killing-machine-that-isnt-working/