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riptides

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by riptides

    So it was started.

    How do you not view this as civil war?

    PMC Wagner Commanders’ Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped. They neglect the lives of soldiers. They forgot the word “justice”, and we will bring it back. Those, who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I’m asking: no one resist. Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads. I’m asking everyone to remain calm, do not succumb to provocations, and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way, do not go outside. After we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland. Presidential authority, Government, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Rosgvardia, and other departments will continue operating as before. We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers. And we will return to the frontline. Justice in the Army will be restored. And after this, justice for the whole of Russia."

     

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    2 hours ago, sross112 said:

    Just my thoughts. I think Prig is working to save Putin and in doing so creating further opportunity for himself. He is telling the people that Putin was lied to by the FSB and MOD. This gives Putin the out that he needs. When stuff is terminally sideways Putin can ruthlessly purge the MOD and any rogue FSB elements left as well as anyone else he wants to tie to the conspiracy. Then he can pull what is left of the RA back into Russia and announce how he was misled and fooled by the bad actors he just had shot against the Kremlin walls. How they were responsible and did it because of whatever reason (greed, hate, or even a planned military failure that would dethrone him) and that he figured it out and is now, once again, saving the Russian people from a horrible mistake. 

    Prig and Kadryov are close supporters of Putin and both have been naysaying the MOD for awhile now. My vote for the main scape goat is the MOD with a splash of FSB. I could see this all happening as a play to save Crimea, so possibly this summer. Putin announces withdrawal from Donetsk and Luhansk as well as any other occupied territories, except Crimea. He will use all his tankies to put pressure on the west and therefore Ukraine to cease hostilities. If we see an uptick in the propaganda when the RA really starts losing it will be a good sign that something along these lines is being prepared. 

    His hopes are that the Russian people will believe his lies and he will remain in power, his well funded supporters in the west will parrot his lies and have a cooling affect on Ukraine, and that his apology for the schemes of others, not him, will allow the war to end with Crimea still Russian. 

    So who strikes first? Putin or the MOD? The MOD have to realize they are the in the cross hairs and if they don't act first it will be all over. Will it happen after the first large scale collapse, or will it be when the RA has totally collapsed? 

    A good case for internally within Russia.

    Everyone else sees Putin, his cronies and his brain dead followers of "mother russia" as the issue. Putin may save face internally, externally dealing with "russia" will never, ever be the same so long as he holds some influence or power.

     

     

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

    Delicate situation:

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/06/14/nato-stoltenberg-ukraine-membership-vilnius-summit/70317400007/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d4

    The NATO chief said the alliance is working on a multi-year package that is likely to be agreed upon at the summit. The support package will help Ukraine meet the organization's standards for membership, he said.

    From what I remember, NATO membership requires the new entry not to be in an active war. 

    Well one party considers the action to be a Special Military Operation.

    Therefor I see no hold up with membership for Ukraine.

    3

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

    So I expect we are can look forward to all the "totally not pro-Russian" mouthpieces in the western media to start up the line of "Russia is willing to have a cease fire and negotiate. Why are we supporting Ukrainian warmongers who want to keep the war going rather than have peace?"

    I wonder how long it will take for similar sounding comments to start turning up all over the Web.

    Well.... a negotiated cease fire on Ukraine's terms is welcome.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

    Don't know if he is in russian payroll as many claim, but each of his points are sound. Especially these ones:

    1.The russian fortified left bank is more affected. Minefields are gone, trenches are gone, fortifications are gone... Why they would blow a dam *after* they have fortified those positions and flood them with water? They must have already killed some of their troops.

    2. Once the water dries out( and the hot summer is ideal for that) Ukraine will have much better chances to reach and reinforce breakthroughs to the south. 

    3.Ukraine has targeted the dam before with high precision weapons like HIMARS. 

    I'm sorry, also the Nord Stream latest reveals contradicts the belief the Russians did that in the first place. 

    So, I'm being more than skeptical now...

    re: 3. - I doubt a high precision weapon could cause that breech and destruction.

    Sounds like a more internal placement.

    re: 1. - Seriously doubt if certain Russians care about "their own" troops. These are people that shoot "their own". What's               to say the order to start swimming was not given?

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Bearstronaut said:

    Graham is a weasel but he's also not an idiot. He spent over 30 years in the Air Force and Air Force Reserves and was on the Armed Forces Committee from 2003 to 2019. He's always been a foreign policy hawk and I think Zelensky probably told him the truth about their upcoming offensive.

    He is on the right side of this crisis.

    It's the best money we've ever spent," apparently in reference to U.S. aid to help Ukraine fight Russia in general. And after some back-and-forth with Zelenskyy, he said, "And the Russians are dying."

    Graham speaking to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a visit to the country on May 26.

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

    Prigozhin is talking about revolution, the preponderant power of the Ukrainian state, confirming that tens of thousands of casualties, etc. And he is quite specifically pointing at Russian elites being the cause. There may be an argument that this sort of talk helps Putin on some level but I have yet to see it.

    Blame shift, elites are the issue. Now go grab their wealth. He is still protecting Putin.

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    Ukraine MOD has done a pretty good job of keeping its card players holding their hands. This Belgorod situation strikes me as part of a much bigger plan than just the vaunted counter offensive. Surely those in the know must have something cooking, and I think it to be one of turning the wolves loose on Putin himself.

    The action, the timing, THE place, and especially the force makeup, I think turns the tables as it now forces Putin to react to the political reality of fighting not only his deputies, but now his "country men" themselves.

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    59 minutes ago, chrisl said:

    For TS and higher, they are.  When people are getting their clearances renewed the investigators make appointments and then come around and interview both the person given as a reference on the SF-86 and anybody else that person refers to as familiar with person under investigation.  If they come looking for someone who they didn't have an appointment with they'll even ask random people in the area "hey, do you interact much with X?  I'm here reviewing their clearance, do you have a few minutes?"

    Getting clearances vs. reviewing.

     

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