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Erwin

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Posts posted by Erwin

  1. https://www.wsj.com/world/a-shortage-of-men-is-forcing-women-into-ukraines-mines-427824af?mod=world_lead_pos5

    Re: Challenges of male shortage in Ukraine:

    With the war in its third year, some women are moving into traditionally male-dominated sectors of the economy to make up for a growing shortage of men. Businesses have lobbied the government to exempt more of their workers from military service, arguing that a strong economy is essential to sustaining the war effort. But with threadbare Ukrainian troops now losing ground in the east and north of the country, Kyiv has little choice. A new mobilization law came into force last week obliging all men eligible for military service between the ages of 26 and 60 to register with the authorities.

    Even before the government expanded the draft, between 10% and 15% of firms’ payrolls were mobilized, according to Anna Derevyanko, head of the Kyiv-based European Business Association. 

    https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-faces-an-acute-manpower-shortage-with-young-men-dodging-the-draft/

    Draft-dodging plagues Ukraine as Kyiv faces acute soldier shortage

    The BBC recently reported that 650,000 Ukrainian men of fighting age have fled the country in the past two years, most slipping across its borders with Poland and Slovakia, some with false exemption papers allowing them to exit Ukraine despite a ban on fighting-age men leaving the country.

     

    Moscow’s troop strength inside Ukraine currently exceeds 400,000 soldiers, with another 100,000 near Ukrainian territory. Overall Kyiv has around 680,000 active military personnel with around 200,000 on the frontlines; Russia, meanwhile, has 1.2 million, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Ukrainian army general staff said last year they feared Russia could be considering mobilizing 400,000 to 700,000 additional troops.

    In December Zelenskyy said 450,000 to 500,000 extra soldiers would be needed to resist Russia in 2024. The Ukrainian parliament has for weeks been considering fresh mobilization legislation, which would see the minimum conscription age lowered from 27 to 25. 

    Prolonged time on the frontlines is also drawing bitter complaints from battle-weary Ukrainian combatants demanding to be demobilized or rotated out with lengthy recuperation time. Their relatives want the same thing: On Sunday, dozens of families of frontline soldiers crowded into Kyiv’s Maidan Square to demand their husbands, fathers and boyfriends be relieved from combat, arguing they’ve done their bit and now must be demobilized or given considerable rest and relaxation.  

     

  2. Fwd: Dive into the World of Wargaming this June: Earn Your Certificate in Wargaming!

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    Meet two of our expert instructors:

     
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    Dr. Ed McGrady is a renowned expert in the design and application of professional games, with a vast array of experience and accomplishments in the field. Serving as an adjunct senior fellow in gaming at CNAS and teaching game design courses for MORS, he brings a wealth of knowledge to his endeavors. Dr. McGrady's passion for leveraging games and innovative techniques is evident in his role as the founder of a business dedicated to pioneering gaming experiences in new domains. Additionally, his recent publication, "Roll to Save: Gaming Disease Response," delves into the intricacies of designing games to support public health professionals. With a background in chemical engineering and extensive experience in various sectors, including domestic response operations and military deployments, Dr. McGrady's expertise is unparalleled, making him a leading figure in the realm of professional gaming and strategic analysis.

     
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    With over 30 years of experience in military operations, operations research, and wargaming, Mr. Paul Vebber specializes in designing, executing, and analyzing wargames to support the development of undersea warfare capabilities. Grounded in the disciplined application of analytic and synthetic methods within the "Cycle of Research" (Perla 1990) framework, he advocates for research and development initiatives aimed at enhancing wargaming processes. Mr. Vebber emphasizes integrating manual kriegspiel-style wargaming with cutting-edge technology to facilitate player communication and decision-making, ensuring effective communication of decision rationale to analysts for deeper understanding of gaming outcomes.

     

     

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    Website: https://www.mors.org/Events/Certificates/Certificate-in-Wargaming

     

     

    CERTIFICATE DETAILS

    Date: 3-7 June 2024

    Location: Online

    Time: 1000-1800 ET

    Instructors: Mr. Matthew Caffrey, Mr. Scott Chambers, Lt Col James "Pigeon" Fielder, Ms. Elizabeth "Betsy" Joslyn, Mr. Michael Markowitz, Dr. Roger Mason, Dr. Ed McGrady, Mr. Phil Pournelle, Mr. Paul Vebber

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  3.  

     

    "The Silicon Valley company Skydio sent hundreds of its best drones to Ukraine to help fight the Russians. Things didn’t go well. 

    Skydio’s drones flew off course and were lost, victims of Russia’s electronic warfare. The company has since gone back to the drawing board to build a new fleet.

    Most small drones from U.S. startups have failed to perform in combat, dashing companies’ hopes that a badge of being battle-tested would bring the startups sales and attention. It is also bad news for the Pentagon, which needs a reliable supply of thousands of small, unmanned aircraft.

    In the first war to feature small drones prominently, American companies still have no meaningful presence. Made-in-America drones tend to be expensive, glitchy and hard to repair, said drone company executives, Ukrainians on the front lines, Ukrainian government officials and former U.S. defense officials. 

    Absent solutions from the West, Ukraine has turned to cheaper Chinese products to fill its drone arsenal.

    “The general reputation for every class of U.S. drone in Ukraine is that they don’t work as well as other systems,” Skydio Chief Executive Adam Bry said, calling his own drone “not a very successful platform on the front lines.”

    Ukrainian officials have found U.S.-made drones fragile and unable to overcome Russian jamming and GPS blackout technology. At times, they couldn’t take off, complete missions or return home. American drones often fail to fly at the distances advertised or carry substantial payloads.

    Small American drones for the battlefield “have been underdeveloped,” said Mykola Bielieskov, a senior analyst at Ukraine’s Come Back Alive, a charity that has supplied more than 30,000 drones to the military.

    American drone company executives say they didn’t anticipate the electronic warfare in Ukraine. 

    The innovation cycle in this war is very short.”

    Using Chinese drones

    Ukraine has found ways to get tens of thousands of drones as well as drone parts from China. The military is using off-the-shelf Chinese drones, primarily from SZ DJI Technology.

    Ukraine has also developed a domestic drone industry that relies on Chinese components. Ukrainian factories are churning out hundreds of thousands of small, cheap drones that can carry explosives. It also produces larger drones that can strike deep into enemy territory and reach Russian ships on the Black Sea

    Dubynskyi said Ukraine wants to test and use more U.S. drones. “Nevertheless, we are looking for cost-effective solutions,” he said.

    Ukrainian forces are burning through about 10,000 drones a month, which they couldn’t afford if they had to buy expensive U.S. drones. Many American commercial drones cost tens of thousands of dollars more each than a Chinese model.
     
    The U.S. is racing to assemble a fleet of next-generation drones to stay competitive with China, as concerns rise about a potential conflict over Taiwan. WSJ explores whether the U.S. can work fast enough to deter its adversary in the South China Sea."

     

  4. And another timely one on Ukraine graft:

    https://www.wsj.com/world/eggs-ammo-and-underwear-inside-ukraines-new-push-against-military-graft-8b47b6d9?mod=world_lead_pos2

     KYIV, Ukraine—Masked Ukrainian security officers have raided properties, seized wads of cash and detained suspects in a recent crackdown on graft in the purchase of goods for the military ranging from eggs to artillery shells. 

    As Ukraine faces setbacks on the battlefield in the third year of Russia’s invasion, attention has turned to corruption that is corroding support for the war effort at home and abroad.

    The appointment of Bezrukova follows a series of procurement scandals that erupted after Ukrainian investigative journalists revealed the Defense Ministry had purchased eggs at more than twice their market price. President Volodymyr Zelensky fired the country’s defense minister in an effort to quell a furor in Ukraine and disquiet among Western allies.

    Since then, law enforcement has carried out a number of corruption-related arrests. Among the most high-profile cases is that of businessman Ihor Hrynkevych, whose companies won contracts to supply clothing and underwear to the armed forces despite previously being involved in construction.

    The companies weren’t able to meet the standards outlined in the contracts, resulting in losses of more than $30 million, according to Ukrainian law enforcement. Hrynkevych was detained in December while trying to pay a $500,000 bribe to a security official. His lawyer didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    A separate investigation by Ukrainian law enforcement implicated senior defense ministry officials in embezzling $40 million meant to purchase artillery shells for the army.

  5. And here is a timely WSJ article about it all:

    https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-and-china-double-down-on-defying-u-s-446f5f7f?mod=latest_headlines

    Russia and China Double Down on Defying U.S.

    Moscow and Beijing are pulling closer after Washington warned China to avoid strengthening Russia’s military capacity as the war in Ukraine drags on

    Russia and China have pledged to deepen their growing alliance and shared opposition to what they describe as the U.S.’s attempts to dominate the world order, with Moscow again seeking to boost trade with Beijing as it looks for new ways to bypass the Western sanctions imposed for its war on Ukraine.

    Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing on Tuesday after the U.S. increased the volume of warnings that China should step back from helping the Russians pursue the war against their smaller neighbor. The meeting, which followed separate talks with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, also came against a backdrop of a growing tussle for influence in the global south between the West on one hand, and China and Russia and their partners on the other.

    Lavrov echoed some of the language of the Cold War in his remarks following the discussions, and again criticized what he called the West’s proclivity for falling in behind Washington, and the U.S.’s attempts to get the rest of the world to follow the same line.

    “There is no place for dictatorship, hegemony, neocolonial and colonial practices, which are now being applied by the United States and all the rest of the collective West unquestioningly submitting to the will of Washington,” Lavrov said.

    China has officially maintained a position of neutrality over the Ukraine war, but it has remained an economic lifeline for Russia, deepening trade ties that have helped Russian President Vladimir Putin stabilize his economy despite Western sanctions. 

    Beijing has also sought to position itself as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine, and dispatched an envoy to Moscow, Kyiv and other capitals. Its proposal last year aimed at ending the conflict was discounted by European officials who saw China as hewing too closely to Russia’s position.

    Wang said China “hopes to see a cease-fire and an end to the war as soon as possible,” while Lavrov said Moscow was “grateful to our Chinese friends for their objective, balanced position, and for their willingness to play a positive role in the matter of a political and diplomatic settlement.”

    During a call last week, President Biden warned Xi about U.S. concerns that Beijing is supporting Russia’s defense industry.

    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen repeated those concerns during a visit to China this week, telling officials that Chinese companies that aid in Russia’s military procurement “will face significant consequences.”

    …a trilateral summit this week that is expected to include talks on countering China’s increasingly aggressive efforts to stake its claims to much of the South China Sea.

    Chinese companies have sold microchips, jamming equipment and jet-fighter parts to Russian entities, The Wall Street Journal has reported. Chinese exports of earth moving equipment to Russia have also shot up since the start of the war, which analysts say may be aiding the construction efforts of Russian forces in Ukraine.

    During a visit to China, the Treasury Secretary also raised concerns about Chinese firms and financial institutions helping provide goods to Russia that Moscow is using in its invasion of Ukraine. Photo: Florence

     Trade between Russia and China grew last year by more than 26% to $240 billion.

    Energy was a key component of Russian exports, and China—which doesn’t observe the Western price cap—has been a leading buyer. Last month, China received a record volume of Russian crude as Indian purchases fell over concerns about sanctions, shipping-data company Vortexa reported.

    Xi and Putin declared a friendship with “no limits” between their two countries in early 2022, shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. While Beijing has sought at times to play down that declaration, it has never condemned Putin’s war, or even called it a war, instead describing it as the “Ukraine crisis.”

    Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Tuesday that Lavrov’s visit to Beijing could be considered to be preparation for “upcoming contacts at the highest level,” between the two nations, but he declined to confirm whether the Kremlin leader was planning another trip to China this year.

  6. I agree.  It is vital that aggression by a foreign country is punished.  However I don't see anything positive happening in Ukraine so long as China is basically bankrolling Russia. 

    FWIW: My dad was born in Ukraine, but sent to Poland cos the Russians/Soviets were massacring Ukrainians at that time and as a result of the Holodor he lost his entire family and was orphaned shortly after.  My mother's family come from the Baltics and they lost family members to the Russians/Soviets and most survivors were made refugees to Finland, Sweden and the UK.  One relative more recently married a Russian (didn't work out).  So, I have a better than most concept of the Russia character and what the Russians are capable of.  

    I have also been in the USSR, then Russia, and more recently (per my first post) several of the satellite nations to see what they are thinking.  My experience tells me that the only realistic plan to get a positive result in Ukraine is to first degrade China to the point that we can pressure China to pressure Russia.  

    The current thread on Ukraine beautifully illustrates Philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer's saying, “All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.”  

    The other one that is pertinent:  George Orwell — '...reject the evidence of your eyes and ears.'

    Anyhow... am off to Africa next.  See you end of May.  :)

  7. 2 minutes ago, Holien said:

    Yep, Ukraine to win just has to stay in the fight...

    What game plan does Russia have to win this?

    Time is on the Ukrainian side, they just have to keep fighting.

    Am sorry to point out that it is the opposite.  Russia already controls large swathes of Ukraine with valuable minerals (primarily needed for EV's) which with China gives them a huge longterm strategic advantage (assuming that we do not switch from EV's to a better source of power like hydrogen).  All Russia has to do is sit on that land and hold out.  

    Meanwhile, the west has growing economic and social problems and can ill afford a longterm commitment to keep the Ukraine govt financed (currently we are paying for all the govt salaries) and the military reinforcements.  As in Vietnam and Afghanistan, vast sums of aid/cash are being stolen by the Ukrainian oligarchs who are about as corrupt as the Russian ones.

    What game plan does Ulraine have to win this other than the forlorn hope that Russia will self-destruct.  Per my own research last year that is very unlikely to happen:

    It's debatable whether we in the west are exhausting Russia and China or if they are exhausting us (depleting our weapons reserves).  China is the main foe.  China is akin to Nazi Germany in the 1930's with Russia playing the hapless Italians bogged down in Albania.  The Ukraine war is giving China (and others) excellent training on how the west fights and what weapons systems we deploy.  That is a major reason imo why we are understandably reluctant and slow to provide the best weapons to Ukraine.  

     

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