The_Capt

Compounding this is that the RA not only needs to melt...it needs to stay melted if a military solution is going to work. If Russia holds grudges or some political extremists uses this as a rallying point, we will be back at this again in a few years. The odds of a total RA collapse without Russia itself collapsing are very low. As to resistance...the bar is also extremely low for that these days. One screw up by "liberating forces" and the situation could go very sideways quickly. Maybe LNR/DPR roll over but a lot of their people died in this war and I am betting they also know how to hold a grudge. It is a pipe dream to think the locals in these regions are simply going to shrug their shoulders, especially if Russia continues to make trouble and provide support. Crimea is even worse, that one has bloody insurgency written all over it. Unless we are talking about ethnically cleansing the area and then we can say "so long" to western support. We can bat it back and forth all day but I would bet money the UA is already planning for counter-insurgency operations in some areas. The problem is there really is no other choice right now. Ukraine has to keep pushing and we all hope there is some sort of off-ramp that pops up. If Ukraine somehow manages to push Russia all the way back to 2014 borders then 1) the RA will likely regroup and start making trouble in short order because Russia "cannot lose this war" and there is no viable way to destroy its ability to wage war, or 2) Russia will fall apart completely and that has "worse" written all over it. What we need is 3) Russia accepts defeat just enough, somehow holds it together, regime change and gives the West a window to throw a blanket over Ukraine. And then as you note - fantasy. If we are in an era of Denial primacy, then this war could take a very long time and get extremely expensive for all involved. Western support will start to flag and the damn thing could wind up frozen. We then lag on reconstruction investment because of risk. We go back to 2014-2022 era of long conflict while both sides reload, but the backers of one side may have already moved on.

You mean how the Russians underestimated the readiness of Ukrainian local to “resist with their own hands”? Here is something the first month of this war taught us, and we should not forget…it doesn’t take too many enabled and empowered locals to really mess up a conventional military day. And it will be deeply in Russia’s interest to enable and empower them. I think this assumption that the LNR/DPR citizenry are sheeple who will simply bow to whoever is extremely shortsighted and not supported by the 8 year war that happened before this one. Hey if they do roll over and happily accept reintegration that is great, but to bet the bank on that is not a risk, it is a gamble. We can debate this round and round, but I simply do not agree that retaking Crimea and Donbas automatically lead to a Ukrainian total victory. In fact retaking would only happen after the decisive collapse of the entire RA in the theatre. Further, at that point the idea that Russia would 1) stop holding a grudge and 2) somehow be incapable of violent action within Ukraine in order to convince itself that the war was still on…are both very weak assumptions. Finally, the root of this war is not addressed by either retaking land or failure of the RA. That resides deeply in Russian conative frameworks that need to be re-wired completely and won’t be under the current regime. The reason why this thinking on Crimea and Donbas is so wrong, in my opinion, is that if Ukraine does not retake these regions then the narrative quickly becomes one of defeat for Ukraine and that is toxic in western circles because we have backed so many losers in the last 30 years we are spooked by the very idea of it happening again. Russia needs to negotiate with its own defeat, no one is going to be able to do it for them in this war. We are not in a war where force of arms will get Russia to accept anything. Force of the Russian people is another thing but as we can all see, we are not there yet. My greatest concern is that we are likely going to need a Plan B that includes rebuilding Ukraine and somehow pulling it into a security mechanism even if this war is still going on, which means real risk for the west…something we are not very good at right now. We took them all in the last two decades and got burned.

So your theory is that the BRICS (who just welcomed Putin with open arms) is going to sacrifice their own energy security and stop buying Russian oil and gas because Russia loses Crimea and Donbas? This, after we can barely get the West to stop buying Russian cheap gas. Also, somehow the Russian arms industry which is the second largest on the planet, is going to also simple shut down and grind to a halt? Finally, you are only talking about means here, the overall Russian Will for revenge/retribution/whatever they come up with likely goes up after a humiliating defeat in Ukraine. Please point out a case in history where Russia does not hold a grudge. Russia won’t just be lobbing missiles, it will be providing direct support to all those people in the Donbas and Crimea who still sees themselves as Russian and want to make trouble. The entire region will likely be an open wound for decades unless something fundamentally changes inside Russia to which Donbas and Crimea are not decisive, they are not the only ways Russian Will can break. The break of Russian willpower needs to collapse somewhere else on something else with a western engineered/assisted soft landing. You appear to have what I tell my students is “scope eye”. A narrow solution - a theory of victory with single points of failure. By this logic if Ukraine cannot retake Crimea and Donbas they have lost the war? This is also false as they too can freeze a conflict. The rub in all this is not Ukrainian or Russian ability to wage war, it is in western risk acceptance. So far we have been cautious and extremely deliberate in escalation and support. If this conflict freezes we may actually have to take some serious risks in reconstruction and invest in Ukraine, as well as redefining risk calculus of military alliances. And that is frankly far more serious and challenging than the military problem set.

This is why how the coup went down made zero sense. How did Prog think this was going to end? He chases Putin out of Moscow and nearly made it to the gates. No way he gets to live after that. Some weird Belarusian drug deal with a Putin puppet was never going to work and everyone knew it. I am back to the love affair theory. Putin helped Prig fake his death so they could get him out of the game. Putin knows Prig is really at the lake house and they plan to retire together there…kinda sweet except for the part of killing 10 other people.

Man that is convoluted logic. So Ukraine taking back Crimea and Donbas is somehow directly linked to the entire Russian federations means, motive and opportunities to continue this war…and somehow also stay together as a functioning nation? That makes no sense. Russia is a large power that could lob missiles and drones at Ukraine while sponsoring all sorts of terror and insurgent action for decades. They don’t need “worldwide sentiment” anymore than North Korea does. In fact given the ridiculous insecurity of the Russian mindset I suspect they will keep the war going just to avoid turning on each other, “A long struggle against NATO in Ukraine to keep us safe”. If you honestly believe that retaking those 2014 borders is going to magically end this thing and peace will simply emerge, well I think you may be disappointed. The only way to get Russia to stop and adopt peace is to either remove Russian Will to wage the war entirely, or increase the deterrence (eg NATO membership). The trick with killing Will is that it cannot completely collapse the state itself.

This is a major problem with this war. Ukraine cannot get "that" (as you outline) as it would take invading Russia itself. Or the complete collapse of Russia at which point no one knows who to sign what and thing will likely get much worse for Ukraine. Total victory for Ukraine is nearly impossible under these circumstances no matter how much hardware and money gets sent in. Best case is to retake the lost terrain - or enough of it to send a clear message - a regime change in Russia that can 1) hold that dumpster fire of nation in one piece, 2) be far enough from Putin so that we can convince ourselves to deal with them, and 3) is able to start down the road to re-normalization (war crimes, reparations etc). More likely will be a frozen conflict - hopefully as close to the 2014 borders as possible. If it can get frozen enough, we can pull Ukraine into NATO and box up Russia until they sort themselves out...if ever. A "forced peace agreement" onto Russia is a long ask as it would basically take WW3 to enforce, and I am not sure how realistic that expectation is.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russian-warlord-who-defied-putin-was-on-passenger-list-of-jet-that-crashed-officials-1.6531330 Hitting mainstream. If Prig just got slagged...well he should have not been surprised in the least on the way down. Mafia rules - when you take a shot at the boss, do not miss.

Now the Falklands is a very good analogy for this war…lead with that one. As to morale, well here we get into human collective certainty again. Most wars are really collisions of human collective fiction, not based in physical reality. “They are Muslim, we are Christian.” “That is our land.” “Our Sky Chicken told us to”. These may be total fiction but they still have tremendous power. If we give up on certainty it means we have to live with uncertainty and we do not like that at all. Morale is really as much about clinging to a certainty as anything else. For Russia they definitely are clinging to certainty and talked themselves into this whole thing. As to RA morale, well something is holding it together, I will give them that.

I never bought this parallel analogy. Germany knew that the USSR was going to go all the way to Berlin, so they were fighting for their nation in an existential conflict. Russia was in the same place in 41-43. Russia today is not, at least not in a "Hey NATO/Ukraine is going to destroy us." Russian political noise keeps trying to sell this but I honestly doubt the average Russian buys it. For Russia this is a discretionary war. It is not for Putin or his cronies but for Russia as a nation this war is entirely voluntary. So the question of "what the hell keeps them going?" is a valid one. This is one hell of an expensive "non-existential" war.

All of the above. If you are asking for there is a magic hat that erases minefields or perhaps some sort of nano-tech that can simply turn all those mines into turnips…well no. Western equipment is not going to solve for this, nor will our wonderful doctrine or training. We in the west have not done an opposed obstacle belt breaching operation since the Gulf War and we had complete air supremacy in that fight. The last time we did without air superiority..well WW2? So we really have no idea if our way would even work right now either. So we are back to continually hammering RA C4ISR and logistics, artillery and other key capability that is making those obstacles so beastly. The only other idea I can see is to dismount a lot of infantry and infiltrate but I am sure the UA is trying that. It goes slow until it goes fast…or not at all. But at this point there is no other Plan B. Both sides are far to along to try and talk/buy/bargain. This whole thing must either break or come to an exhausted end state. And whichever of those become true then we will have to be prepared to deal with it. Given the level of just outright destruction the RA has suffered I am surprised they had this much left in the tank to be honest. After last Fall and a winter of throwing troops away the RA was (and is) in pretty poor shape. But if the price point for Denial has become too low, then the RA can fight and impose friction with relatively few troops as well. My money is that the UA has not fully committed. We have not seen a significant concentrated push by the UA yet that matches their reported troop capacity. But they have maybe 2 months left to do something, or the entire western support world is going to start asking “are we done?”

Ukrainian manpower has been at “a breaking point” for about 18 months now. Do we have any actual evidence of the state of Ukraine force generation, or are we seeing doom and gloom? The obstacle dynamic is interesting. Minefields are supposed to be useless unless “covered”. What appears to have changed is what it takes to “cover” a given obstacle. It used to be dug in troop organizations, now it is UAS and ATGMs linked to artillery. So the bill for effective coverage has gone down significantly. This is all starting to add up to the blindingly obvious - this is not a shift to Defence Primacy, it is a shift to Denial Primacy. We have been seeing denial in the air and on land (now projected onto the sea). Denial effectively raises the cost of action to a level that is unsustainable. One does not “hold ground” one simply makes the cost per foot too high. We appear to be entering into an age of denial. Closely linked to corrosive warfare concepts as Denial essentially is very expensive friction, the question remains whether or not the UA can overcome and project its own level of friction back onto the RA at a rate higher than the RA can sustain. It has been a summer of slow grinding and not many signs of success but remember the metrics are not territory as much as they are systemic erosion. Which side is eroding faster? I do not know if the UA can reach a tipping point that leads to major advances. We have until about Nov and then the whole thing will peeter out, if last Fall is an indication. If the UA cannot achieve a major breakout by then, well there will have to be some difficult conversations I expect.

Fair point, and I am not saying language skills are a bad idea. It is the self-righteous BS of judging a volunteer in the middle of this war because he does not speak enough Ukrainian for some plug sitting at home at a computer terminal that gets me going. The guys will pick it up as stuff like “Excuse me I think my legs was just blown off and I need assistance” gets picked up pretty quickly. Been on this thread from the start but this is a bit of a low point in my opinion.

So US C4ISR is highly integrated with UA ops at this point, and has been noted many times is integral in the prosecution of this war…what language do you suppose that is being spoke in? And the UA training support, I personally know guys doing this and the working language is English. All this HIMARs, what language do you suppose the manuals are written in?There is no doubt translator support but English is all over this thing as it is the language of the support that is keeping Ukraine in this freakin war. And as I have pointed out repeatedly…this is not solely Ukraines war. As to our track record of lack of local language skills - of course it is an issue but what do you suggest? Adding on a year of language training to already overloaded force generation systems. “A few simple phrases”? Which ones? And then there is context because a few simple phrases can start a gunfight in the wrong context. My overall point is that if a guy wants to go overseas and fight for Ukrainian freedoms, putting his life on the line everyday; a bunch of armchair generals on this forum getting huffy because his Ukrainian is not “up to snuff” is disrespectful and self-inflated. It is also ignorant of 1) the extent English is employed in the theatre and 2) the realties of warfare. Lack of language skills is going to limit the individuals utility and of course it would be great if everyone was fluent, but this is dire straits and harsh times - if he can freakin shoot Russians he is good enough for the job. Frankly the level of discourse on this entire forum is sinking if we honestly want to pick apart a volunteers willingness to serve in the cause of greater freedom because of some latent anti-Anglo/US -insecurities. For all those that think this volunteer is “doing it wrong”. Well go learn a bunch of Ukrainian and then go over and join the fight…then you might have a leg to stand on.

All the support and guns are coming from an English speaking alliance. The fact that English will dominate operations and permeate throughout should not be a surprise to anyone…would be my point. And the simple fact that putting language barriers to foreign people who want to fight for what is right in the middle of an existential war is monumentally stupid…that would be another point. Dude, seriously where have you been the last 30 or so years? We have been sent all over the freakin planet to fight (and die) for “our guys” in one steaming sh#thole after another…and now it is dawning that we did not learn all their local lingo?! How dare we?!

Working language in NATO is English. Further, all US C4ISR support will be in English, as will most of the instruction going on outside of Ukraine. Equipment manuals, English. It is a US world, we only live here. Beyond that warfare does not need a lot of flowery discourse, pretty blunt and simply stuff really.

Any professional worth their salt would 1) not have access to enough information to outline recommendations in any detail, or 2) if they did have access to enough information would not say anything as it would likely violate security. So what that major caveat up front; generally (and not pulling on anything but open sources/unclass) I would recommend: 1. Continue shaping until major RA cracks form. 2. Widen those cracks with pressure to the point the RA are forced into dilemma. 3. Exploit that dilemma into a collapse and take enough ground to keep the West happy without over extending. While at the same time pushing hard enough to put RA back into a position where you can repeat the process. More simply put: Corrosion - Cracking - Concussion. Do not stop until you hit a point where you cannot sustain defensive superiority against extant RA capability (which is a pretty low bar) as this would also be over extension. Tactically I would recommend to continue with what works - Infiltration, Isolation, Annihilation, Exploitation, along the entire RA operational system. Last point - when do we know when to stop? If nothing is working we likely have to admit Defensive Primacy and either wait for a development to break that, or start thinking about a frozen conflict. If massive C4ISR superiority, deep strike and infantry are not enough to break the RA defence - then admit we are in a new ballgame and start playing it.

So there have been wars sparked by lack of resources or competition for resources; however, the idea that all wars or conflict can be reduced to this cause is a myth. Many wars were about social uncertainties or in some cases downright fantasy (e.g. The Crusades). Lack of resources can be a powerful driver but a lot of time the most uncertain thing is what another group of people may or may not do, if we do not know/trust them. Take this war. This was not about resources in the least. It was about power, social power. Russia wanted to demonstrate power, Ukraine did not want to give its own up. Neither side could live with the uncertainty of the loss of power and were driven to act in response. We have gone to war over the dumbest and most irrational things. We have gone to war when it was going to make things much worse resource-wise (see Pre-WW1). We go to war over ideals and identity, grudges and vengeance, rumours and fears. In many ways humans are always afraid, we just need a reason to let it out. Sometime we just hate the other guy for no rational reason and will kill our selves just to take them with us - two people stabbing each other as they both fall off a building. And that animal has the bomb and AI, what could possibly go wrong?

It is because of who we were…middle of the food chain. Prey animals are driven by fear because it is necessary programming to survive. We were right in the middle until we figured out how to 1) leverage energy, 2) communicate, and 3) lie to each other and ourselves. Our big juicy brains allowed us to do this at an evolutionary escape velocity rate. Good/bad, altruistic/selfish have no real scientific meaning - an eagle swooping in to kill another animal is not being anything morally, it is simply surviving. We built social frameworks that allowed us to create social metrics such as good and evil…which are basically metrics of relative behaviours. We are in fact both and will leverage them based on context. In frames of certainty and safety we will act altruistically and “good”. Pump in enough uncertainty and fear and we will start to eat each other in a surprisingly short period of time - see Hurricane Katrina. People want to believe we are good because their sky-god or whatever made us that way but in reality “being good or evil” is an artificial set of conditions. The role of government is to sustain frameworks of order and certainty so we stay within a “good” frame. War is a collision of two or more social frameworks that creates a completely new environment along with a new set of social metrics. “Being good” is killing other people. Being good is committing suicide to save others so they can kill other people. Being evil is to not kill other people and run away, or kill the wrong people. War is also a state of massive uncertainty so we often see devolution happen very quickly. Of course that is what military machines are all about - sustaining violence through order in a massive environment of fear and uncertainty.

Of course in this one the US is supporting the not-terrible-regime, so there is that. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_support_for_Iraq_during_the_Iran–Iraq_War I dunno, I do not believe that Russia or the RA are some monolithic juggernaught that can keep taking punishment indefinitely - hell, we came within inches of a freakin coup, even if it was more likely an accidental one, in Jun. Russia has basically torn off the steering wheel but there will be a point when economic ruin and dead Russians will stack up. Beyond that a ZOS or some other UN BS might be an option but it won't stop the missiles or UAVs. So to answer your question the best way to make Russia fail faster is what we did not do in the 80 - stop buying the oil and gas. Hell we can't even agree to kick them out of the Olympics. But in order to do any of this we would have to negotiate with a new reality ourselves. The one where hard power and war are going to be at the forefront of diplomacy instead of sweeping up the "dust of empires". I think it is still too soon to call the UA offensive a bust. We have been here before, pecking and pinching, then one morning "whammie." If it completely fails then there will definitely be some tough conversations.

Not going to throw stones, however, this is what happens when one adopts an extreme definition of “winning”. It has been a problem going way back to last summer. To even suggest a half measure of victory for Ukraine was to admit defeat…which is simply not true. For some, yes even on this board, victory for Ukraine is 1) regaining every inch of the pre-2014 borders, 2) a completely defeated and dismantled Russian state and 3) regional security for Ukraine from now until the end of time. I can clearly recall this narrative being promoted here and used as justification as to why we need to give the UA every weapon under creation yesterday. Well 1) how realistic are these criteria given realities of modern warfare? 2) items #2 and #3 on that list are in strategic tension with each other? And 3) so if Ukraine (or the West for that matter) fail to achieve these goals, does that equal Ukrainian defeat? Grown ups do not talk in terms of absolutes. They talk in terms of negotiation. How can Ukraine negotiate the best outcome it can out of this war? As to victory, Ukraine is already there because the actual core objective of remaining an independent state has been met. The rest is negotiation; violent and bloody negotiations. Everyone wants Ukraine to succeed as much as possible but “what winning looks like” is a moving target. If the UA cannot break the strategic corridor and set conditions for retaking the Crimea then this conflict will likely freeze. Ok, so what? How does Ukraine still achieve its strategic objectives if this happens?

I gotta be honest, I have kinda lost the bubble on what we are talking about in this sidebar. Training and experience are part of a learning cycle. E.g. experience is captured, codified and then taught to incoming troops so that they do not need to make the same mistakes. Do it long enough and it becomes doctrine. So I suspect the UA has a significant advantage in this learning cycle, again we are supporting them here as well; however, it is not something we can really do for them. We do not have the experience of this war, beyond support, and so they are the ones that are collecting the lessons learned etc and translating into training. We do not own either end of that spectrum, so beyond the basics of warfare - which still apply - we can only support this cycle and take a lot of notes as our own doctrine and training will be in need of revisions based on some of what we have seen. My overall point at the beginning of this discussion was that there is no magic US/western training silver bullet. Nor is the UA "simply not getting 'it'", which seems to be some of the narrative coming out of online commentators. We don't get "it" in many ways and as such can only support the UA in learning about their own war, faster better.

Well I would not write off quality entirely. Compared to what an average conscript in the RA receives I suspect that UA at the ground level are getting much higher quality training. But this is more than content, it is stuff like resources and facilities. As to staff level, well I am sure there is some training support happening here as well but 1) we do not really have experience in running Div/Corp level operations in a high intensity conventional war - we have theory and doctrine, but how well that is working right now remains to be seen. And 2) Staffs need more than individual training, they need time to gel and click, that is not something we can really "do" for someone without going in and taking over. This is all part of a much larger force generation problem that the UA is supported by the west in solving. But it is not like we are wizards who are teaching them magic. More like running a bunch of basic training courses that will allow them to stay alive longer than their RA counter-parts.

The primary challenge, as I understand it, with the UA is mobilizing a bunch of civilians and turning them into coherent fighting forces. So we are really talking Company and below. Basic stuff like weapons handling and drills. Fieldcraft and hygiene. Patrolling, offensive and defensive drills. In short, “the basics”. That is an enormous challenge, let alone more advanced stuff like crews for vehicles, specialist and weapons crews. Above this is stuff like staff at formation level - we normally get people at 15-20 years in their careers before we teach them operational level staff stuff, obviously the UA does not have that time. The whole “bottom up initiative” culture is great in a professional force but much harder to manage in a group that were civies 20 mins ago. In some ways the genius of the Soviet template is that it could churn out millions of troops all dancing to the same tune. We always tout “initiative” and good ole “gumpshin” but in reality a bunch of inexperienced people doing their own thing under fire is in reality bad. Military machines work very hard to beat uniformity into people to get them to fight as a unit…in the old days we called it “discipline”.

Gawd, who wants them? Expensive and likely useless. Last military to try old-school Soviet mass in the modern context was Iraq, and we all know how that worked out.

I do not use the Ignore function often but in this case may I recommend it. “Real men do not fear the bomb” is just dumb. It was during the Cold War and dumber now. If some people want to wrap themselves in dumb and feel all safe and warm, well there are entire social media platforms dedicated to that.