chris talpas
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Posts posted by chris talpas
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8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Heh... yours was just about the only recent post I wasn't speaking too
Yes, this is one of the biggest lessons coming out of the war. Not only are Western concepts of stockpiles for "the next conflict" not holding up so well, apparently nobody thought of the possibility that replacement rates for depleted stockpiles might not be quick enough to be ready for the next conflict.
This is why I keep returning to my pet peeve about not seeing the necessary mindset shift in Western weapons procurement yet. It is very, very, VERY clear that fast production at mass scale is needed. If a threat can be made for $1000 in a few days, then the counter to it should be as well. Either that or a much more expensive system needs to be realistically capable of returning that sort of value over time.
I'm a proponent of keeping my country and my allied friends safe. In the past spending lots of money tended to achieve that goal. Now? It seems the opposite is true in that the more that is spent on big, expensive systems is likely making us less safe rather than more.
Steve
Sounds like Perun is listening
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Guidance will certainly be the challenge. Not only detection and target discrimination but how do you prevent fratricide? Does that then require some IFF since you aren’t going to launch singletons against a swarm. The aforementioned bats have solved the target discrimination problem in a swarm setting.
Do different models of drones have significantly different acoustic signatures? If so, could they home on that?
Then again a bunch of dpicm armed drones sent into a swarm to explode could do substantial damage. All depends on how dispersed the swarm is. Widely dispersed until final targets probably makes sense.
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12 hours ago, The_Capt said:
I strongly suspect - even thought it is still quoted as a mantra - that this war is demonstrating that the best thing to kill a tank is not another tank. It would appear that artillery, ATGMs and FPVs are winning that particular argument quite well on their own.
I’m hoping that our own government will consider the lessons of this war before it spends what little money money is allocated to the military on replacing tanks.
i hope your voice is heard and heeded.
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Very timely in light of recent discussion on drone technology
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2 hours ago, chrisl said:
And the lead tank was basically screaming "shoot me first! shoot me first!" on every frequency. Anything using its radio for target homing instead of communication will make a beeline toward it. So if it wasn't an optical/AI drone, it could have been an anti-radiation drone.
The rate drone warfare is evolving is astounding. Who was seriously envisioning the variety of offensive capabilities that exist today?
And it continues to evolve…
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8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Any aircraft Russia loses are good to see, but Tu-95MS are the real prize. A quick search shows that Russia may have as few as 60 of these in total. They probably have some older mothballed airframes they can put back into service, but even 2 or 3 represents a statistically meaningful decrease in readiness levels.
Steve
They are important indeed since they are a heavy bomber able to carry a significant missile payload. Essentially their B52 equivalent.
Smart strategy that pushes back their safe basing. Wonder if the AWACS take down was preparation for this increased drone warfare? -
9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
It's especially tricky because it's not clear cut as to the intentions. For the most part I think the Republicans are actively opposing Ukraine support for the simple reason that the Democrats want it. This has been a problem with the GOP for some time now, and it's getting worse. Look at what they did to the border security compromise. Just about everything the Democrats offered up was something the GOP has been demanding. Did they get everything? No, and nor should they since they don't speak for 100% of America. But what happened? They torpedoed something they claimed was their top priority. Which indicates to me that it was never a real priority to solve, it was just a vehicle to win elections.
There's also the problem that the GOP's core agenda is, for its own domestic reasons, in concert with many of Moscow's aims. Cutting back foreign assistance has always been favored by the populist wing of the GOP, even though up until now arms packages were usually exempted. Catering to Joe Sixpack's short term interests is also a strong tradition within the GOP, so railing against anything that might be perceived as filling up a gas guzzling truck is on their agenda. And let's not forget isolationism. A huge and long standing force in American politics that comes from deep seated emotions which, sadly, people like Hitler and Putin take full advantage of.
The result of all of this is it's not very easy to point a finger as to why the GOP is behaving the way it is. Some members are clearly pro-Putin, others are just anti-Democrat, and others still are generally anti-democracy. Even if an individual is all three, they should be allow to speak. That's not the problem with our society. The problem is a large percentage of the population isn't able or capable of understanding that speech, yet are perfectly happy to go along with it because it makes them feel good.
Steve
Oh for principled leaders like this today… certainly not a loser in my opinion
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10 hours ago, The_Capt said:
I get the need to vent and all, but you are kinda yelling at the church choir here. Steve either banned or we chased off the right wing twits (and I mean MAGA-types, not honest Republicans who's biggest crime is simply losing control of their party).
To paraphrase Kofman, Ukraine will never run out of ammunition, they can simply chose to "fire less" (The_Capt rolls his eyes).
This war is in an odd place right now. Ukraine is under strain and suffering but also appear to have upped their strategic strike game significantly. Russia, is also suffering but is showing improvements in some disturbing areas, like ISR. No one has solved for the operational stalemate that has evolved. Hard to really say what is going to happen but I am getting a strange sense that something is going to give one way or the other soon.
I would love to see our country up their game in the Czechia ammunition initiative. Our $30M CDN (22M US) looks a bit anemic against Norway’s 143 M €. Although I realize their finances are in better order.
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9 hours ago, FancyCat said:
For all the gripping about Europe, at least they are holding strong after some tepidness. Sure Germany isn't giving Tartus the fools but by God, artillery shells are flowing. France, God bless Macron, when we have Putin and co spouting bull**** about concessions needed for peace, rhetoric it may be, warnings about NATO in Ukraine, a line where Ukraine will always remain free, meanwhile in action, in rhetoric, we have a Republican Party doing this ****.
Nice to see France supporting another fledgling democracy as they fight for their independence.
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The one thing I worry about as we march towards autonomous systems is that we could be sowing the seeds of our destruction by our AI overlords. I’m sure they will thank us for the proof of concept.
Of course one would be foolish to not develop this technology while one’s enemies do.
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3 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:
Impressive video.
Now imagine the Bradley able to view the drone footage in real time giving themselves real time BDA. In this fully illuminated space, any EM signature downsides would be more than offset by the better situational awareness. Suddenly vehicles get to see the map in overhead view with all the benefits that those weak willed among us who don’t play on ironman.
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2 hours ago, Twisk said:
What I've picked up is that they can't admit that the Ukrainian "Untermenschen" have the capability to do this so the next best thing is to blame their own AD. I also sorta suspect its the nature of the authoritarian system. You can blame the AD network all day and no one is going to come out swinging about incompetency unless they want to see the inside of a prison and possibly find themselves on the next train to the western front. However, by crediting Ukraine you are creating a situation where people might start taking actions driven by fear.
I wonder if that however demotivates and creates resentment in the air defence forces?
Could that contribute to their low levels of effectiveness? Compared to Ukraine’s relative rate of success in shooting down drones, for example, the Russians have been rather abysmal. Not to imply that their air defence isn’t to be trifled with. -
9 hours ago, Tux said:
I just mean the code (not to diminish how complicated that is), not step-by-step following the rationale behind each actual decision it has made. But point well taken - emergent AI may be emerging as we speak.
It isn’t code in the classical sense. You have the mathematical construct of a neuron which you code for and then have a vast interconnected web of these. You then train it where the strength of those interconnections is adjusted during training. It is analogous to our own brain where as we learn certain neural pathways are strengthened while others are pared away. It is almost a black box.
The rate of improvement in AI both in narrow and broad applications is nothing short of astounding. I just worry the we are racing to develop the tools of our own demise with autonomous kill drones coupled with LLM AI that are becoming increasingly capable and closer to sentience.
I would rather hope for Kurzweil symbiosis instead. -
12 hours ago, The_Capt said:
And we are back to human irrationality. You are correct, we would rather cling to the chaos and uncertainty of "freedom." If an AI economy could guarantee an end to poverty and unpredictable recessions/depressions, completely predictable growth and wealth distribution that made sure we never saw class friction (we are basically talking Star Trek) - I have zero doubt we would march in the street to reject it completely...now that is irrational (or perhaps relatively rational is a better term)
We are such an odd species. Uncertainty can become a certainty we cling onto and will fight for. But here is the thing...no one out there is crying for "electricity freedom!!". We have already shifted enormous level infrastructure management to autonomous AI - you know, the stuff that really freakin matters? So we are comfortable with that, but "God help you if you touch my money".
It is a miracle we made it this far....
Isn’t a sizeable amount of trading in the market driven by AI trading algorithms?
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9 hours ago, cesmonkey said:
After reading this, I think Zelensky would be a fool to dismiss him.
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Latest drop from Perun and certainly relevant to this discussion:
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14 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:
How did you come to the conclusion that Wagner is out of the fight? Perhaps the name doesn't mean as much as it did, but there are still loads of "Wagnerian" Russian troops/specops in Africa, and they most likely haven't turned into "people-loving-softies".
Ukraine army high command is smart enough to not let snipers "dick around" anywhere, I think.
Russia is still a serious presence in Africa, and they're trying to get even more influence. And in some cases with - for us, probably - surprising succes. This is Wagner in CAR, for instance:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67625139
And recent Russian influence in Burkina Faso:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67833215
Seems to me there's still some work to do for Ukrainian snipers.
Maybe taking some inspiration from the British in ww2 going after their numerically stronger enemy in Africa where they could press their logistical advantage, albeit at a much smaller scale. Has the strategic benefit of introducing friction into Russia’s African operations.
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13 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:
Even if RU Air Force mechanics will be able to get this SU-34 running again. The idea that a Ukrainian "James Bondko" is running around in Russia setting fires to RU aircraft in Chelyabinsk of all places, while giving out heavy metal salutes will not help morale inside the RU Air Force at all. This is priceless.
For the record I had to look up where this part of Russia is. Wow you were not kidding that is deep Russia.
Chelyabinsk most famous for the large meteor back in 2013 injuring over a thousand people with an explosive yield of half a megaton.
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Would giving the Ukrainians the ability to cause some hurt to the Rostov on Don logistics hubs and infrastructure of a military nature (HQ, ammo or fuel dumps) be too escalatory?
Bringing the war to the home front might apply some needed domestic pressure as well as muck up supply efforts to the occupation forces.
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25 minutes ago, paxromana said:
Teenage Mutant Ninja ... Badgers!
Bring 'em on I say!
Aren’t those critters called Wolverines?
Hmmm
swarms of cyber implanted mind controlled wolverines- zerglings
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7 hours ago, JonS said:
The state of Russian civil aviation suggests that sanctions are being rather effective.
I think the fact that the civil aviation industry (Boeing, AirBus, engine manufacturers, for instance) also do a fair amount of business with Western governments strongly influences their desire to be seen as complying with sanctions
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39 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:
And jet engines. Not gonna have a long flight time.
Depending on what it’s real world kill probability turns out to be as well as its cost, it could be quite cost effective against aircraft. Carbon fibre may be to reduce RCS. Might be much harder to detect than SAMs or opposing fighters. Never knew what hit him
i can see it supplementing AD.
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Not to digress too much but continuing the 80’s commercial with a Soviet theme
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8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
My guess, and it is just that, is Ukraine was waiting for the shiny new kit because it wasn't confident it could get through the defenses it believed were in front of it. My sense is that during the "hurry up and wait" period in June Russia was reinforcing positions that Ukraine didn't even get to. In other words, the positions Ukraine struggled to breach were largely that way before the campaign season was viable.
Steve
That is a good perspective. Makes one wonder about how much more mines have been put in place further back. Given the near impossibility of significant breaching operations in this new age of drones and drone directed high precision artillery, how do you avoid stalemate?
Could a concerted effort on the logistics chain using longer ranged Atacams and friendly ISR assets over the winter cause forces to wither on the vine?
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Perun discussing the new US aid package