Elmar Bijlsma
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Posts posted by Elmar Bijlsma
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39 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:
This seems staged, almost like actors in a high school play. Why this--why such a public announcement? Have we seen situations like this being broadcast by the Russians previously? Maybe it's just me, but this just seems like another BS poorly executed Russian video for some as yet to be known Russian ploy. That will fail.
My guess? No-one wants to have to order the pull out only to find out afterwards he is the one this defeat is being pinned on. So we get this song and dance where everyone is shown to be on the same page.
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20 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:
There is a hatch in the bottom of the tank, but the driver might have been injured or disabled.
If he isn't exiting via the fighting compartment for some reason, the bottom is probably off the list of available options, too. And that's assuming the bottom hatch isn't welded shut. A notoriously bothersome bit of kit, I am told.
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3 hours ago, Haiduk said:
Two points of view (ATGM operator and drone) of the same episode - Stugna-P hit Russian or DPR tank near Pavlivka, Donetsk oblast, where Russians try to attack:
Enemy tank got a missile, but was lucky - the crew could extinguish fire, but the second missile has exploded the tank - throwing into the flight enemy driver
So if r/CombatFootage has informed me correctly, the driver has controls to make the turret clear his hatch. Is this accurate? Seemingly the driver was unaware of it, as it looks like the other guy dipped back in to do it. Absolute nightmare fuel for the driver to be trapped in a burning tank. And just when he thinks he is saved, his lifeless corpse gets ragdolled some 20m across the field.
With luck like that, I bet his wife's new Lada is going to break down a lot too.
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2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
You, sir, are going to lose your Grognard Membership Card if you keep this up.
Steve
I'll be sure to complain about that, too.
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10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Yeah, but there are none of those. They all are chambered to use 12.7×108mm
Steve
It might not be .50 BMG, it's still .50 cal.
Just for that, I am going to start calling KPVs DShKs too.
*edit*
From the video it looked like the fire didn't come from the breech. And the yeeting shortly afterwards of the bin increases my faith the description was correct. HOWEVER, I will concede it can be called an out of battery if the excitement happens in the bin. It's 'out of battery+'.
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13 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:
T-80 uses an NSVT, not DShK, but it is a good video.
You are correct, but sadly this will not stop me calling every Russian .50 a DShK.
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
Good footage of Ukrainian T-80 moving around and shooting. Montage with unrelated soundtrack. At one point the commander's gun appears to have a round go off out of battery (fireball flash):
There's a better cut of it on reddit that shows the ammo bin eating a round, the TC chucks it soon after. btw, keep watching that DShK until the end. TC owes his life to that hunk off metal twice over.
Oh, and I've been holding on to a video clip for the last few weeks. Seems now is the time to post it:
"I am giving up,
I've had enough,
I can't keep this up,
you've got Mylove".
Pretty much the thinking of the Russians at Kherson, I'll bet.
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1 hour ago, Seminole said:
I believe the phrase you’re looking for is Potemkin Army…
Not at all. That, to my knowledge, implies a fancy facade where the the actuality is much less impressive. But it's still a military, just weaker then expected.
Cargo cults, for those that don't know, are a Pacific island phenomenon where the natives build imitation airfields and the like in the hopes of inviting back the bountiful supplies the US Army, Navy and Air Force dumped on their islands during WW2, who built similar bases. They don't really understand what airfields do, but they build something shaped like one.
And that is why I prefer to use cargo cult.
The Russian Armed Forces seem to have build something akin to what won them the Great Patriotic War in the quasi-religious hopes that victory returns to them, without fully understanding what it is they are supposed to do with it. Push onwards to Kiev, because that is what Zhukov would have done. Mass artillery bombardments because it worked for Rokossovsky. Logistics? Stalin never paid attention to that either.
They have this thing called an army but they don't really understand how it works and how to use it. Hence, cargo cult.
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9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
As I said when this was first brought to our attention... Russians are half assing this because they half *** everything.
I've said it before, and I enjoyed saying it sufficiently that I will repeat myself:
The Russian army is less a military and more a cargo cult. They do things that look military if not examined too closely, but is mostly them going through the motions to make the victory in The Great Patriotic War manifest itself again.
From these lizard teeth (not so much dragon now, I think) to dumping bewildered Mobniks at the front without giving them so much as a clue as to what to do next. It is all seemingly about appearance more than capability.
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Ukrainians enjoying some back and forth between Russian arty and spotter.
Half a kilometre off. Yeah... I'd be a bit upset too, as there's no telling which 500m it's going to be off by next time.
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In the category of "we are very lucky they are so F-ing stupid" (not a category designed to narrow things down, I admit) we have this:
Yes, those do appear to be ERA blocks attached to the cab of a truck.
Not entirely sure what he thinks it will do for him.
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A question on the dragon's teeth we've been seeing.
If they really want to adopt that along the front, what does that look like, logistically? Where are they getting them in the first place? And then they still need to get the hefty buggers trucked around to where they are needed. That is a big task for a logistical system not exactly wow-ing anyone.
It seems an awful lot of trouble to go to to get a low rent Maginot Line that the Russians cannot adequately man and that the Ukrainian artillery can systematically dismantle the strong-points of whenever they please. And that is assuming the Ukrainians won't simply drive through the "Ardennes".
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34 minutes ago, Zeleban said:
Video of HIMARS strike on Russian military convoy
Worth noting that a good chunk of the vehicles were towing others.
One more sign that the Russian army is largely dysfunctional.
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6 minutes ago, dan/california said:
Does Russian have a word for plan? Not much evidence of it.
I just realized that the famous '5 year plans' are not referring to the duration of the plan but the maximum limit on plans.
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Remind me not to play hide and seek with Ukrainians.
I wonder what that guy's plan was. Didn't leave himself too many options.
*edit*
I appreciate the Vincent Vega reference in the comments.
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4 minutes ago, sburke said:
I think that is actually from Dilbert
Elbonia | Dilbert Wiki | Fandom
Elbonia is an impoverished Eastern European country in the Dilbert universe. In the comic strip, and originally in the TV show, its major commerce was mud. There are also mentions of a currency called the Eye-Crud. Path-E-Tech Management often outsources work there, and has a factory for their subsidiary ElboCo.
Thanks for that. I did not know the origin story of Elbonia, though their mud exports were briefly mentioned.
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1 hour ago, Cogust said:
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/10/01/russiandraft
One newly mobilized Russian shares his experience, he is not impressed with the amount of training or the equipment issued.
This reads like mobilization, Elbonia style.
For those that don't know. YT channels like Forgotten Weapons and The Chieftain have this fictional country Elbonia as a meme. The idea is to sabotage the Elbonian military by giving it gear that on surface level looks useable but actually is a liability.
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7 minutes ago, dan/california said:
Ukraine seems to want to make a rather emphatic point about the annexation. Specifically that they absolutely couldn't care less. Or could be 100% based on the alignment of military factors, but I m guessing the the annexation had a lLittle weight on the timing. It doesn't hurt that the Russian forces in the northern Donbas are all but folding. So pushing in Kherson now creates the maximum amount of command stress and bad choices. Putin may be willing to give away Luhansk, but I am fairly sure he didn't want to give it away by Thanksgiving.
Politically the fall of Kherson would indeed make a very pointed reply to the annexation. It would also dramatically undermine Putin, but whether that is good or bad is up for debate, as it has been here.
Sure, taking the pocket would be a good thing, all in all. But is it the best thing?
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3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
Note that the benefits of removing Kherson Kessel (aka Putler's Pocket) would greatly increase UKR capability to attack on Melitopol front or elsewhere. While RU loses all the units on Kherson front, UKR has all its units to redeploy. If RU is given time to remove units from Kherson then both sides would get shortened front w ~same # of men, though RU would have lost a lot of kit & supplies. Advantage to removing kessel is disproportionately in favor to UKR if they can act soon.
Picture the situation post-Kherson. UKR will be able to very thinly defend right bank since there no way RU could mount a an offensive there even after a successful river crossing. But RU will still need to fear a UKR river crossing and so would need to keep up more of a defense along that line. If RU has long stretches of left bank left undefended, UKR might sneak forces into the area and cross to form a significant and threatening beachhead. Given Putler's obsession w Crimea he can't afford to have UKR on left bank where it could threaten an advance toward Crimea.
I am not at all sure that Putin is willing to pull back across the Dnipr. Putin want his PP big and strong. Aside from him ideologically not wanting to let go of that piece of Greater Russia (as he sees it) it might dawn on him that it would be politically dangerous to fail even more right now.
Even if a withdrawal is attempted, it would be exceedingly costly for the russians at little cost to Ukr, especially if they can get 155mm arty in range of the crossings. I don't think Ukr should try too hard to take what will be given soon enough.
You do have a point with freeing up manpower. But it does remove an area where Ukraine finds Russia at a distinct disadvantage. Ru artillery in the pocket itself was reported to be on its last legs so it's practically a free shoot for Ukr. I think long term a greater price can be extracted from the Russians by letting them hold it.
Also, the pocket's removal might allow Russian reserves, if any, to be stationed closer to hand in the (south) east and south.
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12 minutes ago, akd said:
Most of the rounds are bursting in tree branches, but some make it through to the UKR BTR-4.
It's the other way around, BTR in the bottom left seems to be doing all the shooting.
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Is it even militarily wise to roll up Cherson pocket right now? I mean, it is complete arse for the Russians to supply. It seems worth it to let the Russians "enjoy" their self inflicted wound some more. Squeeze it to a more manageable area to give arty more options but otherwise I would leave it in place.
I still fancy Melitopol as an axis of advance worth trying. Perhaps too obvious a route and too strongly held, but surely the past few weeks the area has been thinned of defenders some? Perhaps it is too late now, with the autumn mud upon us.
TBH, I was a little surprised by the Lyman operation. I didn't think it would improve the strategic outlook all that much. Initially, it definitely was, with the local defences in disarray. But the initial progress seemed slow and grinding that I really doubted it was going to go anywhere worthwhile.
But second guessing the Ukrainian General Staff really isn't the smart thing to do, I realize.
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37 minutes ago, Offshoot said:
Nah, that's just Ukraine's new 'cross now' sound.
These five fellows seem to be taking on the entirety of Kyiv's traffic control system by themselves.
Is it me, or does a lot of the sound in the video of our favourite TikTok warriors sound like it was lifted from Call of Duty or somesuch?
No way was that a phone or Go Pro picking up actual combat sounds.
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13 minutes ago, RockinHarry said:
Looks like their looting columns didn´t make it out in time. Too many washers inside I´d guess.
Some russian wifes must be very sad not getting their christmas presents this year.
From footage I've seen, a fair few traded up. Lada instead of a washing machine.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Twitter is its usual deranged self and calling for Article 5 which is of course disproportional. But the bar for supplying ATACMS just dropped, I think.