acrashb

Fox News' take is quite different, but here's CNN's take: By passing Ukraine aid, the accidental speaker became an unlikely Churchill | CNN Politics

That's partly why I posted it. The "right" isn't a monolith any more than the "left" is. Shapiro in particular, while generally aligned with the "right", thinks independently. In any event, the fact that, as you say, someone influential on that side of the line is making supportive statements - backed up with obvious logic and some obvious emotion (never bring facts to a feelings fight)- is significant, and that's the main reason I posted. Very hopeful that a meaningful Ukraine (and others) bill is passed, and I see Shapiro's support as indicative that it will. There is clearly bipartisan support, and that's what's needed to get this through. I would say "tripartisan", but is it just as obvious that a faction, including MGT and similar, will not be onboard.

Because there is so much talk about US support and the bills being presented to Congress:

More concrete indications that the West is waking up:

Since we're been talking about the efficacy of sanctions, here is an eye-watering example of evasion. Sanctions have an effect, and they need to be enforced. Looks like some people are going to jail. https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/12/05/finnish-firms-smuggling-drones-russia/

Another interesting drone in development. This one can intercept aircraft, other drones, can be one-shot or re-usable, does VTOL and is fast. Yikes.

Not me. I see at relatively close range (I live in the country and pay attention) the omnishambles that is the Canadian Armed Forces - lots of good intentions and not enough stuff. Partly it's money (a hard limiting factor) and partly it's competence, which can be improved with will (and time, and money). It's a travesty, and Canada has been free-riding on the US taxpayer for years, with respect to defense. Just because we can doesn't mean we should. In a practical sense, it erodes a team when some members are feigning sprained ankles while others move the ball down the field. If NATO is for mutual defence - and it is - then Canada (and others) are lagging in 'mutual'.

Which is why the world has gotten away with free-riding for so long. It isn't fair, and it weakens the alliance. If the US wants to continue to spend ~4.5% of GDP and in so doing get the side benefits, great, as long as countries like Canada step up and meet their 2% commitment (and ultimately do something smart with the money). Motives are one thing, results another. Ideally they align, but if they don't and the results are okay, well let's carry on. Our system is designed so that results are generally good even when motives are suspect - for example, many of the politicians I've known had very poor motives, and yet produced results because that's how they got re-elected. Having said that, I acknowledge that poor motives have a corrosive effect, given time. Not everything DT produced was evil, even when the methods were disturbing. Check the chart, steady growth in NATO spending as a percentage of GDP.

So some war porn is instructive. Again, slaughterbots. Also, the drone operator has the personality of a cat playing with its food. Good or bad is an exercise for the reader - and here's a really good thought experiment: when this is done autonomously, should the AI play with its food as well for purposes of Schrecklichkeit? He uses bull-in-a-china-shop tactics to get results, sometimes it works (often not). On NATO, he was saying the obvious: most of the free world, including my country, free rides on the US taxpayer. I think his various threats were a way to scare other states into stepping up (at least I hope so). Result: NATO defense spending as a share of GDP 2023 | Statista Looks like the bluster did have the desired (or a desirable) effect. Hard to be sure, but the chart is persuasive, as he was inaugurated in Jan 2017.

Budanov's wife poisoned: Ukraine military intelligence chief’s wife has been poisoned, reports say (foxnews.com) Whoever arranged this, and the entire chain of command that executed it, now has a target on their foreheads.

With multi-partisan support. Only Elizabeth May abstained.

1) if you're referring to The Donald, unless the Democrats field a viable candidate pretty soon, The Donald will be the 47th President of the United States. So whatever preparations you deem necessary, I'd start them now... 2) It truly is. Sweeping statements like "the Plague of Justinian hastened the end of the Roman Empire" sweep enormous suffering to the side. In the immortal words of Heinlein, talking about ordinary people, "Perhaps their lives have no cosmic significance, but they have feelings. They can hurt." 3) I had not intended to take advancement in social and physical technologies for granted - "past performance is no guarantee of future results" - these advancements and the relatively recent radical upturn in their pace are not an accident. I just wanted to take some wind out of the doomsayer's sails, because the only sure way to lose is to give up - it is the sufficient condition. Anyway, Human Progress is a sure antidote to the drumbeat of negativity from legacy media. Regarding the future, given that we appear to be the only sentient life in at least the Milky Way, a) we may be about to be challenged by The Great Filter and b) it is important both to us (for obvious reasons) and everything else (because sentience gives meaning to the universe) that we overcome it. One of the clear steps is avoiding nuclear escalation due to the Russo-Ukraine war (see how cunningly I brought this back on-topic?), and as the_capt often says, this isn't a given, even in peacetime ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls ).

You may then enjoy this article from Human Progress: How Dignity-First Development Can Spread Liberal Democracy Better - Human Progress And for all of the numerous doomsayers here, with the exception of human freedom (which has taken a hit in the last decade or so, as measured by Freedom House), everything gets better all the time. Just open your eyes to evidence vs. media trying to terrify you. I suggest skimming the stats found in Human Progress. While one should not expect results when bringing facts to a feelings fight - I think the people here can do better than that.

More signs of Russian stress: "...Russia has likely moved strategic air defence systems from ... Kalingrad, to backfil recent losses..."

Looks like the BTR backs into a ditch and gets stuck. Then it gets droned. So Russia continues to put crappy drivers in its crappy vehicles. I speak no Ukrainian, but I do understand "motha****a"

Meanwhile, drones continue their steady move towards being one of two things on the battlefield: drones, and targets. "Drone pilots have become increasingly valuable—and are targets for both sides" Note that Russia is learning too, and in some ways outpacing the UA - especially in EW to disrupt the final phase of an attack run. https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/10/29/trenches-and-tech-on-ukraines-southern-front

One can get, and I have used, shotshell ammo in many calibers. The challenge is spin, as the rifled barrel results in as much as 300000RPM from a rifle (vs much less in handguns) which _very_ quickly scatters the shot. And then there are the logistics issues and the "holy crap, I loaded shot to try and hit that guy 100m away" factor when someone grabs the wrong mag. I think C-UAS is a platoon / squad level thing with anti-UAV UAVs and / or netting devices.

Closer and closer to slaughterbots. Those who enjoy war porn (i've had my fill) will be engaged by the bradley shooting up the town - but wait for the end where the drone flies into the shelter entrance and blows it up. So make that a small swarm with some autonomy, and fly instead through the shelter with communications relay drone remaining at each corner to allow the mini-swarm to act as a unit and send BDA back to headquarters. Then the shelter isn't a shelter, it's a pre-dug graveyard. This is right around the corner. With the current rate of AI development and drone innovation (driven by the Russo-Ukraine war) I say eighteen months or so. Can't tell you how glad I am to be living in a mostly-peaceful country with a friendly neighbour.

What are the remaining 10%, assuming they can be neatly summarized?

So, instead of being an Esquire, you're an Arsquire. Interesting career choise.

Ukraine is taking a long and wide view of the war. Long as in war criminals will be hunted until they are gone. Wide as in not just on the Russo-Ukraine front: Somehow this type of action will interact with any formal pause in hostilities - can they keep killing their enemies globally if Ukraine and Russia cease fighting on the front lines? And how on earth did they insert forces into Sudan? Which leads to understanding of how they will do it in future. Edit: squeaked in on 3000

It may take a while for that reality to sink in at NATO, based on this post touting an MBT and not drone infrastructure. My concern is that it will remain a fringe view for too long, due to inertia, group-think and the sunk-cost fallacy. Police can use tear gas, armed forces cannot.

Because a crisis is the moment when extended and/or complex supply chains, particularly ones with a seaborne components, are most likely to be severely degraded. While I don't doubt that Russian culture is materially different from Western culture, this particular picture could be emblematic of the Russian mind or, since we have also seen pictures of mothers / wives mourning more conventionally, it could be that Dimitry, in spite of his winning smile, was a son of a bitch and his wife is glad to start over with his cousin Mikhail.

Lots of doom and gloom here. Also, every once in a while someone complains about their X feed not providing sufficient coverage of the war. Both issues may be solved by following the Ukrainian Front account. This will help to drive more relevant posts to your account, as well as getting you the daily 'good morning world' posts followed by the equally marvellous 'good night world' posts:

It won't be decades, it's already in the funnel: https://www.wired.com/2007/01/military-builds-robotic-insects/ And my favourite, the Black Hornet Nano. Add a mere 3gr of C4, and you have a short-range (which is enough), slaughterbot: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Hornet_Nano