James Dunnigan on Casualties (in 1982)

[MajorH TacOps Developer]

James Dunnigan has a good chapter on attrition (casualties) in his book 'How To Make War'.

Below are some paraphrased excerpts/bullets from Chapter 24 of that book. It should be noted that my copy of this book is dated 1982 so Mr. Dunnigan's comments must be taken as based on data that can no longer be described as 'contemporary'.

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According to Mr. Dunnigan ....

The types of casualties are combat, noncombat, and troops taken prisoner.

The forms of combat casualties are fatal, wounded, and mental.

Historical experience suggests there will be one fatality for every three wounded troops. About 80 percent of these injuries will be caused by fragments (i.e. not bullets).

During WWII, the U.S. Army had three combat fatigue cases for every two combat wounded troops. For every 100 men killed, 125 men were discharged because of mental breakdown.

Historically all men who surrender are not captured alive by the enemy. Up to 50 percent of those surrendering do not survive the process. They are either killed on the spot or die in captivity. Troops in combat quickly learn this, which explains why surrenders are not more common. When they do occur, they tend to be in large numbers or by negotiation.

Once in combat, a soldier is effective for about 200 days of action. After that point if he hasn't become a physical casualty, he will be a psychological one.

Generally 60 percent of combat wounded who eventually recover return to duty within three months. 85 percent return within 6 months and over 95 percent within a year. Fifty percent of non combat casualties return within a month, 85 percent within three months and nearly all by six months.

At division level, one day of heavy combat or several days of light action usually results in 10 percent combat losses. [That is 10 percent of the division - the percentage is several orders of magnitude higher in the front line armor and infantry units.] At 30 percent most divisions show serious signs of disintegration. [Again that is 30 percent of the division - at that level 60% to 70% of the front line units may be gone or ineffective.] Combat beyond this point will practically wipe out a division's combat power. Once the 50 percent level is reached there is little left in the division except support troops and artillery. Continuing the fight past the 50 percent level quickly results in the complete destruction of the division.

Historical casualty rate for WWII, US infantry battalions [theater unspecified]. D = defending, A = attacking. Inactive (not in contact with the enemy): 2.6% per day. Meeting engagement: D4.9% to A7.5% per day. Attack of position (1st day): D6.1% to A11.5%. Attack fortifications (1st day): D9.8% to A18.7%.

Mr. Dunnigan speculated that future casualty rates could double or triple due to enhanced artillery ammunition and due to an expected general increases in infantry firepower (spread of personal grenade launchers, greater numbers of automatic weapons at lower levels, and greater linkage of infantry squads to the heavy weapons of AFVs).

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[Wiggum]

Very interesting, thanks !

[ZBrisk]

Historical experience suggests there will be one fatality for every three wounded troops. About 80 percent of these injuries will be caused by fragments (i.e. not bullets).

Is that 80% of non-fatal injuries or 80% of all?

[MajorH TacOps Developer]

My interpretation is that his analysis was that 80% of all combat wounds were caused by fragments rather than by bullets. I have read similar percentages before for that time period.

If I remember correctly, the flak jacket that I was issued in the Marine Corps in the mid 70s had a little tag sewn inside that stated that "75% of all combat casualties were caused by fragmentation weapons". The purpose of the tag was undoubtedly to encourage us to wear our flak jackets despite the common knowledge that the jackets of the Vietnam era and the decade after would only rarely stop bullets but might stop grenade, arty, and mortar fragments. I personally put a .45 pistol round through the front plate of such a jacket at about 15 yards during a trip to the range.