Candadian MPP

[SeaMonkey]

An interesting "what if" for SC's campaign editor?

I'm talking the current SC.

[JerseyJohn]

Kelly,

I was joking about the laughing, and I understand what you're saying. If FDR could have gotten the U. S. A. into the war in 1939 I'm sure he would have! True, the United States was already gearing up even before the invasion of Poland -- if it hadn't been the first Iowa Class BBs wouldn't have been available till 1944 or 45!

But the American public was dead set against getting involved.

So, from there we've got speculation as to which way it would have gone with an imponderable happening like the fall of the British Isles --?

It really is an interesting speculation. It's more a question of what the average American thought the Nazi Regime was at that point in history. From our vantage point today it's difficult to tell but I doubt the American public of 1940 saw Germany as the antichrist regime it was seen as being with wartime propaganda.

Few Americans knew about the true nature of nazi racism and, in late 1942 even the American League of Rabbis considered the tales of mass executions and deportations to be dubious at best!

My own guess is the United States would have remained neutral, Canada and the rest of the Common Wealth would have made peace and Germany would readily have accepted it. Germany would have been open once more to free trade through the Atlantic and it would have been quick to turn on the USSR and European Russia would have fallen quickly.

Beyond that it's a whole new range of speculations.

[Michael Dorosh]

I agree with Jersey John's analysis; don't forget Hitler didn't want war with England - he preferred to have them as Allies. Certainly if he had to invade the UK, he would have preferred to be friendly with the CW, though he could probably have waged war by proxy through Japan...

[JerseyJohn]

Michael,

Germany fighting the CM by proxy through the Japanese leads to even more speculations that I think are very interesting.

What happens with places like the Dutch East Indies and Belgian Congo?

I think Germany could have fairly easily sent a force to wrest control of the Congo. With the A-bomb not having been developed I doubt the United States would have been overly concerned, not realizing the significance of it's uranium deposits, or even that they existed at all.

But Indonesia would have been a different matter. Would Germany or Italy control the Suez Canal? If not, would Germany send troops pretty much around the world to take possession of it?

And what would Japan's attitude be? Would Germany have transferred possession to the Japanese -- making it their responsibility to take care of the Dutch garrison and colonial navy (destroyers).

Which leads back to the United States and the Phillipines. Does Japan take possession of the East Indies with the United States having army, navy and air bases at the Phillipines?

If Japan attacks the U. S. as it did historically, thinking it needed to in order to establish it's colonial empire do we suddenly have two related but separated wars:

Germany vs the USSR and

Japan vs the USA and Commonwealth?

[Michael Dorosh]

The problem with games like SC is that you can't simulate or game out these kinds of questions, simply because in real life, so much hung on intangibles.

At Midway, the US knew to have forces in the area because the Japanese broadcast radio messages about the fresh water plant on the island. What a tiny detail, and yet the war in the Pacific hung on it. The Americans knew with some precision to expect an attack at a specific location. They got even luckier with the timing of their dive bombers, and the guts it took for the squadrons to continue the search rather than turn home - which would have been an acceptable thing for them to have done.

How do you recreate that in a game on the scale of SC, without simply using random numbers to represent them?

So we can say all we want that Canada might have done this, or done that, but there is no way to predict what the smallest little detail might have done. A German patrol plane leaves northern Scotland half an hour late, and by so doing, manages to catch sight of KH's Canadian-American task force coming to invade the UK. Bismarck and Tirpitz sortie, and the fleet is wiped out....all because a German pilot had a broken zipper on his flight boots and had to borrow another pair from someone else...

[SeaMonkey]

Well everyone has implied it, so I'm going to say it. I think ultimately it would have been Japan's attack on PH that rings in the USA and German conflict. As was historical, I believe Hitler would have honored the stipulations of the Tripartite Treaty and DoWed the USA. And yes Canada would have been an ally, as well as China, Australia, NZ, India, SA, and any surviving FF, UK/CW elements, not to mention the USSR. Now the hypothesis is, would the USA have been swayed to emphasize the European theatre over the Pacific? That is the 64 thousand dollar question.

[Michael Dorosh]

Originally posted by SeaMonkey:

Now the hypothesis is, would the USA have been swayed to emphasize the European theatre over the Pacific? That is the 64 thousand dollar question.

They only did so in reality because England was in peril. With England out of the equation...

[SeaMonkey]

Michael, I must digress, the war in the Pacific didn't hang on those little intangibles, it was a foregone conclusion. I believe Yamamoto himself reflected on that basic fact.

[SeaMonkey]

Once again Michael I will differ with your opinion, simply it was basic recognition of the greatest threat.

[Michael Dorosh]

Originally posted by SeaMonkey:

Once again Michael I will differ with your opinion, simply it was basic recognition of the greatest threat.

Yes, of course. But to whom. At that point, to England. Again, with England out of the equation...

Or do you think America adopted a "Germany First" policy because of the threat to the Continental 48?

[Michael Dorosh]

Originally posted by SeaMonkey:

Michael, I must digress, the war in the Pacific didn't hang on those little intangibles, it was a foregone conclusion. I believe Yamamoto himself reflected on that basic fact.

But we're not talking about the war in the Pacific - that was an example of an intangible. Do you really think the US-Canadian invasion of an occupied England would be a "foregone conclusion?" You only make my point for me - that point being that Canadian prosecution of a war against Germany in a situation where England has fallen is anything but foregone.

[SeaMonkey]

I'll agree in the context of an Allied re-entry of the European theatre, by no means a foregone conclusion, especially if it were in the British Isles.

As far as the summation of factors leading to the conclusion of Germany as the greatest threat, I believe it was Einstein and his group(for one example) that warned of the potential developing catastrophic condition for the world that Germany represented. The world includes the 48, although not so imminent as the European theatre. Again I'm not so sure that a USA return to the European theatre would have originated in the British Isles, but more likely in the African/Mideast sectors developing to more easily invaded areas of southern Europe. As far as the Canadians contribution to the return, I'm sure the USA led force would have greatly appreciated their involvement as well as the other allies, but to assume they had any chance on their own even with CW help doesn't make for a viable scenario or discussion. I had assumed this discussion had evolved beyond that missconception, although I highly believe that their resolve would have not been in anyway diminished, just unrealistic.

[JerseyJohn]

Get a reliable guide the world of the late thirties.

Add

Germany

+Poland

+France

+Britain

+Norway

+Sweden

+Denmark

+Belgium

+Holland

+Yugoslavia

+Hungary

+Rumania

+Bulgaria

+Greece

+Spain

+Portugal

+Switzerland

+European Russia

+Assorted Colonies.

(we won't count Italy as it was tied in with Afrcan colonies and largely underveloped)

= Lands controled by Germany

Then Add

Japan

+China

+Phillipines

+Manchuria

+Korea

+Formosa

+East Indiea

+IndoChina

+Burma

+miscellaneous

= Lands controled by Japan

And I don't think there would be much doubt where the greatest threat would be coming from.

Japan would have needed twenty years to even begin utilizing their conquests and every step of the way would have required increased shipping capabilities.

Germany would have needed perhaps three years to five years to fully repair the primary war damages and after that it's much more powerful than the United States.

[Michael Dorosh]

Originally posted by SeaMonkey:

I'll agree in the context of an Allied re-entry of the European theatre, by no means a foregone conclusion, especially if it were in the British Isles.

You make some good points below.

As far as the summation of factors leading to the conclusion of Germany as the greatest threat, I believe it was Einstein and his group(for one example) that warned of the potential developing catastrophic condition for the world that Germany represented. The world includes the 48, although not so imminent as the European theatre. Again I'm not so sure that a USA return to the European theatre would have originated in the British Isles, but more likely in the African/Mideast sectors developing to more easily invaded areas of southern Europe.

I agree.

As far as the Canadians contribution to the return, I'm sure the USA led force would have greatly appreciated their involvement as well as the other allies, but to assume they had any chance on their own even with CW help doesn't make for a viable scenario or discussion.

Exactly - and vice versa, I must say, which was an alternate viewpoint put forth by Jersey John and myself - ie that the States may very well have remained in "splendid isolation" leaving Canada with little to do against a victorious Germany.

I had assumed this discussion had evolved beyond that missconception, although I highly believe that their resolve would have not been in anyway diminished, just unrealistic.

Yup.

[SeaMonkey]

Alrighty then! Shall we proceed? Here's where I'm going; A what if, probably a human as the Allies against the Axis AI. UK has surrendered, British Isles occupied. Start time? Barbarossa or before...perhaps afterward? I think we all agree that Germany would have led the assault on the USSR eventually...when...given the invasion of UK?

Now some questions

1. Given the occupation of UK, would Germany have pursued Uboats or an inclination towards a surface navy or a mix?

2. Would we have seen research into SBs or the historical path of rocket developments by Germany and what about LR tech.?

3. Given the pursuit of Q#1 or 2, what would the consequence be for Barbarossa?

4. Will the SC editor allow us to accumulate MPPs for UK application in Africa/Canada/Mideast when UK has surrendered? Should we just color in UK as owned by Germany or apply surrender? The idea is to keep the UK afloat with the Commonwealth, rather than make all USA administered.

5. USA will start at war, probably with level 5 IT, depending on start date what should the USA force OOB look like?

6. What naval and ground forces would have logically escaped the German invasion other than what is in Africa/Mideast?

7. Would Spain or Turkey have joined the Axis at this point, what's the status of Gibraltar, Malta?

8. Does Sweden and Switzerland dare to remain neutral?

My preliminary thoughts on USA OOB are lots of units at strength 1 and 3 HQs, Bradley, Patton and Eisenhower to represent a build up if we have to go USA administered? How many tech chits to distribute?

Anyone interested?

[JerseyJohn]

SeaMonkey and Michael,

Enjoying this discussion very much.

Before going into those interesting questions I'll tell about some experiments I've done with SC1 last year that are relevent.

As we all know, the AI won't stir out of the United States if England has already fallen. Nor will the AI send troops around the horn to Egypt, ever, nor will it send troops through Gibraltar to the Mediteranean although it will transport HQs from Alexandria back to England.

If you want to use our starting premise, that the UK has fallen and the United States takes it back, and you want to be the Axis, leave the UK ungarrisoned and color Manchester and it's port Green (American). The United States will transport a unit to occupy the place, and the rest of it's units will follow. After a while it will liberate both Liverpool and London, at which time the UK comes back into existence!

In the experiment I conducted, a scenario I never made known because it was only something I was piddling around with, I started with the basic NEW scenario layout, had the United States in the War and the UK and France surrendered. I put no German units in either Britain or France. Poland was fighting; the premise was that Germany had gone west first, fought and defeated the two local enemies leaving Canada and the United States beyond reach, but not an immediate threat. Now it was turning east. Add Leeb in Poland with Bock and Rundstedt in their normal places (NEW doesn't have HQs, only troops.

It's Sept 1939. What you call the year isn't important but the point is with the normal game starting units Germany needs to build up before it can invade the USSR.

Having it invade Poland will provide some plunder and also require the Axis to determine how it's going to distribute it's existing and new units while the U. S. is taking the UK back and Germany is taking Poland.

I had the following other settings.

Axis Allies:

Norway, Denmark and Low Countries -- this is to have their units, representing ersatz garrison corps. House Rule, the Axis can't move those units out of their starting countries.

Spain, Portugal and Italy By the time France and the UK would have fallen all three would have been in the Axis.

Minor Allies Setting Historical -- otherwise the Balkan countries will never enter the game.

Neutrals Vichy France, Switzerland, Ireland, Sweden, Iraq, Turkey, Yugoslavia and Greece. -- Hungary, Rumania and Bulgaria set to join Axis historically if not attacked.

Added Units (U. S.) Four aircraft carriers, three battleships, four cruisers and three submarines.

House Rules:

Germany can't send units to UK or till after the Allies attempt to invade France.

An Axis corps must garrison Gibraltar at all times and another must garrison Alexandria at all times.

US and USSR recieve 10 research chits, Germany 3, UK 2, France and Italy 1 each.

Victory Conditions:

Axis Conquer or Ally with every country on the map (includes USA and Canada) by the 1947 cutoff, other than Switzerland, which it doesn't need to conquer.

Allies Liberate both UK and France.

Draw Any condition falling short of victory for either side, with marginal vicotory going to the side that has come closest to winning by the cutoff.

I've never played this scenario past the point of the USA liberating the UK, which was the main item I was interested in. Essentially it's a solitaire idea.

Hope some of that helps and perhaps provides an idea or two.

[JerseyJohn]

Please See my Experimental Scenario Idea in post above.

Originally posted by SeaMonkey:

Alrighty then! Shall we proceed? Here's where I'm going; A what if, probably a human as the Allies against the Axis AI. UK has surrendered, British Isles occupied. Start time? Barbarossa or before...perhaps afterward? I think we all agree that Germany would have led the assault on the USSR eventually...when...given the invasion of UK?

Now some questions

1. Given the occupation of UK, would Germany have pursued Uboats or an inclination towards a surface navy or a mix?

A mix.

Hitler's plans called for a massive Atlantic Navy after the conquest of the USSR. This included 4 to 6 Hindenburgh Class Battleships that would have been along the lines of the Yamato! He also told Raeder that he would have several large aircraft carriers after the USSR had been defeated.

He seems to have had plans for either dominating the Atlantic, or perhaps even crossing it. This part is vague.

As the war progressed up till 1942, he changed his attitude several times about both Africa and South America. At first he regarded them as Untemenschen Lands that were fine for Italy, but not for Germany. Later he changed his mind and even established a colonial office that never got off the ground.

2. Would we have seen research into SBs or the historical path of rocket developments by Germany and what about LR tech.?

SBs. Hitler's thoughts on transatlantic rockets were mainly fanciful and thought up with the idea that the UK was occupied by Allied units too powerful to be dislodged. The rockets, carrying wonder weapons, would have convinced the US to leave the war after Boston, NYC and Philidelphia had been destroyed. At that point Britain would finally see reason and become Germany's Ally.

With the UK conquered, subs would have been much more practical and useful in shielding Europe and the British Isles from American invasion attempts.[/QB]

[JerseyJohn]

SeaMonkey and Michael

I've put the above ideas into a scenario and used the basic houserules I've described.

As the ALLIES , the AI used it's large fleet to immediately chase the two German U-boats out of the Atlantic, sinking one of them near Scapa Flow, which was an American port along with Manchester Port and City.

The AI also sent troops to Manchester from the start and liberated Liverpool first, then London, liberating the UK on March 1st 1940 (the scenario starts game time @Sept 1, 1939 to have the full seven years playing time).

I sent a copy of this scenario to each of you, hope you receivied it without a glitch and looking forward to your opinions.

This isn't a competitive scenario, it might be completely out of balance, it's only purpose is to test some ideas in connection with the discussion we've been having.

-- I have an Italian corps on Malta, a Spanish corps on Gibraltar, and an Italian corps in Alexandria, so unfortunately I screwed up and don't know whether those places would have reverted to the UK. However, neither the Alexandria port nor the Suez port were under direct Axis control, and neither of them went back to the UK.

If either of you play this thing as a test you may want to leave Malta, Alexandria and Gibraltar unoccupied till after London is liberated to see whether those places got back to the UK.

If anyone else would like a copy of this experimental scenario (working title is UKFallen) please let me know and I'll email it to you.

[Curry]

Great discussion!

But I still want those Canadian MPP points going to the the war cause.

In the current game Canada can't even build a corps to defend Canada. (After the UK falls) She gets the points but cant even use them to defend herself. The USA has to defend Canada even though Canada has her own MPP points.

[SeaMonkey]

Sorry Curry, this is for SC2, but you did prompt some good "what if" conjecture.

JJ...got it, set it up and am doing a couple of turns hotseat to get a feel...looks interesting. Now is this for H to H or solitaire....which side? I know you mentioned that the human player could be Axis, as long as you abide by house rules.

I've started "Return of the Allies" campaign to be played by a Human Allied player against Axis AI, because of the reasons you stated of the AI incompetency. To keep UK producing/reinforcing I have a UK entrenched(4) 10 strength corps, experience 4 in Manchester. The AI is attacking it but without success so it allows for CW playability. My only house rule is that the UK cannot build or operate any units to the British Isles until an invasion has captured both London and Manchester.

Here's the premise of the scenario. Hitler has convinced Stalin that they need to prosecute a simultaneous invasion of Iraq(Allied owned) and Turkey(neutral). Stalins primary responsibility is to attack Iraq and make diversionary raids into eastern Turkey(Erzurum) and has deployed a sizeable army group to the area(Caucasus). The main Turkish attack will be made by German and Hungarian forces on Istanbul crossing the Bosporus straits and capturing Ankara, Operation Rayah Freedom. All is ready in early May 1942 for the two pronged dagger into Muslim lands, but instead just before the jump off date, Hitler directs the treacherous surprise attack of the Soviet Union...you can never trust a despot. All of Europe is Axis except the neutrals, Sweden, Switzerland, Vichy France and Finland. The Allies retain a presence in Egypt and Iraq. UK/Canadian forces, strong but meager, have reorganized in Canada after the UK capitulation in October 1940. Pearl Harbor has brought the USA to the side of the Commonwealth, but only cadres of the gigantic future force the US will field have been organized.

[Curry]

You have hijacked my thread. Just kidding, really have enjoyed it. This has turned into a good thread (for a somewhat nice change around here).

[Shaka of Carthage]

Well, now that we have moved into the "what if" realm, I'd like to bring up another possible alternative what if.

Assume Germany/Italy and Japan "won" WWII as has been proposed.

In the 1980's in Japan, there was a alternative history writer (ala Harry Turtledove) who wrote a series of books that were quite popular. He also happend to be a wargame designer, and developed something called "Red Sun, Black Cross" ... a "what if" post WWII scenario (roughly 1948) where Japan and Germany went to war against each other, and the US supported Japan.

Germany and Japan were never the closest of allies. So if the UK did fall, it is possible that the US and Japan could have thier own version of the Molotov-Ribbentrop(?) agreement, which would allow the US to concentrate on Germany without having to deal with a two front war.

[JerseyJohn]

Curry

You've only now noticed that your thread's been hijacked? That happened days ago!

Yes, I think we've all agreed for at least two years now that Canada should not only be allowed to build units, but also that they should benefit from UK tech advances.

The only problem I can see is in the number of units Canada would be able to build.

-- This whole part of the thread, since the great hijacking, the part about an SC scenario simulating the war after the fall of the UK, ought to really to be split off and in the SC-1 section as it's own thread.

[JerseyJohn]

SeaMonkey,

This particular experimental scenario is meant to be played solitaire with the AI as the Allies. The U. S. will take undisputed control of the Atlantic and land troops at the American controled port and city of Manchester. From there it will take Liverpool first and afterwards London. Unopposed it takes from Sept thru March to accomplish. Scapa Flow must also be assigned to the Americans or it will never be retaken even if there's nothing defending it!

The AI never makes a move on Iberia, Gibraltar or the Mediteranean. If you want it to you'll need to make Gibraltar port and fortress American and even then I'm not sure it will as I've never tried that. So, you'll need house rules there as well. I suggest requiring 1 Spanish corps in each of Gibraltar-Madrid-Bilbao while the Portuguese corps must remain in Lisbon. This leaves the 2 Spanish armies free to be deployed elsewhere, which is probably not unreasonable as Franco sent 60,000 volunteers to fight in Russia.

If you want to simulate the Commonwealth presence in Egypt, put American troops and an HQ there and you may as well give the US Iraq -- set it up as Axis but with an overwhelming American force + HQ nearby to conquer it in a few turns. This will give the U. S. a good MPP boost. You'll also need house rules here, no point having Germany send ten armies to the Middle East and wiping out the Americans. A good house rule would be that they can't be attack till the Axis either captures / allies with Turkey, or conquers the USSR.

In my experimental scenario Italy gets Egypt and Malta. This can be done after choosing UK Surrenders to Axis by coloring all the involved hexes Italian.

As I said earlier, this is all in the spirit of experimentation and not a competitive scenario.

[JerseyJohn]

Shaka,

Some time back at a defunct website, I had the Axis in an AAR that ended with Germany successfully invading the UK.

My hypothetical continuation was very similar to what you've stated.

Germany and Japan have a parting of the ways when Japan makes a grab for the German East Indies which has been recently garrisoned incorporating existing Dutch units converted to Reich colonial forces reinforced with regular German army and air units.

With Japan having attacked Germany to grab former European colonies, the United States allies itself with the USSR and Japan!

A year later a combined Axis fleet including the first few H-Class BBs (never built but believed comparable to the Japanese Yamato-Class along with elements of the Royal Navy, pass through the Mediteranean and Italian controled Suez Canal to fight an indecisive naval engagement with the Imperial Navy near Ceylon.

The Axis fleet afterwards withdraws to Italian ports for repairs and Japan gradually settles in as master of Indochina and Indonesia with future actions moving to Africa or India (Germans v Japanese) and South America (Germans v U. S.).

Final result, Germany established from Manchester (west) to the Urals (east) and the Arctic Circle south to the Mediteranean. Possessing vast oil and mineral resources as well as European industry and agriculture.

Japan, fully backed by the United States, coexists with Commonwealth nations India, Australia and New Zealand while absorbing former Dutch and French colonies; seen in American as the great ally against Nazism, given the propaganda treatment the USSR received vrom Hollywood historically.

USSR, pushed east of the Urals, doomed to on again off again warfare with either Germany or it's protectorare states in the former Soviet Union's European territory.

United States, The chief rival of Axis controlled Europe occupied mainly in combat to determine control of the North Atlantic and South America -- military, diplomatic and economic -- vs Axis influences and probing.

Similar actions in Africa trying to prevent Axis absorption of former Dutch, Belgian and French possessions. In those territories American policy would no doubt havt been the guaranto of independence, depriving Germany of those territories.

== I've often said that SC is probably not suitable to be a global game. But I'd love to see the above sort of scenario on some sort of huge scroll map; the problem being it would be very difficult to try and keep track of all the things taking place all over the globe.