Variable Turn Games - My Guess on How It Works

[Lady Roxanne]

At the end of the designer chosen number of turns, the program decides how many turns to add within the limitations (10 turns or 25% of game length max, whichever is less). There is no check after each additional turn to see if the game goes for another turn. This explains the results we see.

In a 40 turn variable ending game the max possible extra turns is 10. At the end of turn 40 a random number is chosen between 1 and 10 inclusive. This number is the number of extra turns applied.

The reason we don't see many variable ending games going just one or two extra turns is because, in a 40 turn game, there's an 80% chance the game will go three or more additional turns. There's a 50% chance the game will go at least six more turns.

If a designer wants a battle to go 45 turns +/-5 he should set the turns to 40. Contrary to the manual, flags changing hands in no way affect variable ending games.

Just a realization that came to me that might interest some of you. I could be wrong, but I doubt it.

[ July 28, 2003, 04:18 PM: Message edited by: CrankyKris ]

[SirReal]

I was under the impression that you got extra turns while one or more victory flags were in contention? Or did I totally misunderstand what you were talking about?

[Lady Roxanne]

The manual is incorrect. Experimentation shows that variable endings will always have extra turns regardless of contested flags, or flags changing hands. Flag status at any point in the game means nothing when it comes to variable endings.

A 32 turn variable ending game will always be 33-40 turns. I like to think of it as 36 turns +/-4.

I could be wrong about all this; but I've yet to see a variable ending game stop at the turn specified by the designer. Also, I'm 99.9% certain that flag status changes mean nothing regardless of what the manual says.

[Lady Roxanne]

I just had a variable ending game finish on the designer-specified turn! I've never seen that happen before. I watched the movie and the AAR screen popped up. Maybe at the end of the specified number of turns the program chooses a random number between zero and nine for the extra turns, rather than one to ten for a 40 turn game.

Or maybe the range is 0-10. Yeah, that's it I'll bet.

This would mean a 40 turn game could be 40-50 complete turns with the odds being 1/11 that the game will end at the designer-specified time.

[SFJaykey]

I think your fromula is a little off. I am playing an op right now that consists of games of 15+ turns. So far the number of extra turns added to each game have been 0, 2, 4, and IIRC 8....that one seemed to drag on forever. Nothing was being contested; my opponent and I had both pulled back to ensure resupply and we just kept clicking Go and emailing files back and forth. Pretty dull.

[Lady Roxanne]

IF the manual is correct, your 15+ turn games should never have more than 3.75 additional turns (rounding method not stated). Considering the manual is flat out wrong about flag status having an effect, it could be wrong here too. It could also be that operations are an entirely different beast.

I'll stick with my formula until I see a non-operation battle go more than 10 extra turns or 25% of total specified turns (whichever is less).

[Green Hornet]

Originally posted by CrankyKris:

...Considering the manual is flat out wrong about flag status having an effect...

I would definitely have to agree with you on this one. I recently finished a 40 turn PBEM battle in which I was defending. All flags were under my control during the course of the entire battle.

On the final scheduled turn (40) the flags were still under my control and were not at all threatened. However, that battle was still extended and lasted an additional 4 turns.