Scott C Posted June 17, 2000 Share Posted June 17, 2000 I just finished a game of CE vs. the AI. AI was Germans with +75% forces. They only got 4 StuGs, though they did end up with a grand total of 15 infantry platoons. I nailed 3 of the StuGs for the loss of 1 Sherman. The final (buttoned!) StuG came into sight right at the end of a turn. During the orders phase, I check LOS for all my (unbuttoned!) Shermans. Range is about 250m. All 4 are hull down with at least 60% hit chance and OK to Good kill chance. The results after one turn: Shermans fire 10 shots. Closest miss ~20m. StuG fires 4 shots, brewing 4 Shermans. ------------------ Questions, comments, arguments, refutations, criticisms, and/or sea stories? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobbaro Posted June 17, 2000 Share Posted June 17, 2000 That would top off any piss barrel, to say nothing of filling it in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aka_tom_w Posted June 17, 2000 Share Posted June 17, 2000 <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Scott C: I just finished a game of CE vs. the AI. AI was Germans with +75% forces. They only got 4 StuGs, though they did end up with a grand total of 15 infantry platoons. I nailed 3 of the StuGs for the loss of 1 Sherman. The final (buttoned!) StuG came into sight right at the end of a turn. During the orders phase, I check LOS for all my (unbuttoned!) Shermans. Range is about 250m. All 4 are hull down with at least 60% hit chance and OK to Good kill chance. The results after one turn: Shermans fire 10 shots. Closest miss ~20m. StuG fires 4 shots, brewing 4 Shermans. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> Thanks for the AAR that is very enlightening.. Well I have campaigned on this one before. I feel strongly that there are too many first shot hits. FOUR in a row on four different targets in one minute is WAY too many. I strongly believe the are far too many third shot misses. Right now at a certain range (300-400 meters ?) I think it has been reported by Charles that there is a 20% chance of a third shot miss. Thats 1 in 5, WAY too high, third shot hits in the clear at that range should be closer to 90% - 95% . Of course if I state that I should back it up with stats and facts and figures and i don't have them so I totally admit that that is just my personal opinion. BUT four first shot hits in ROW and a 20% chance to miss on the third shot after two consecutive rangeing shots? I have to wonder, there is still a GREAT deal of luck involved in tank duals and we would all be best advised to minimize that "luck" element by doing things like getting 4 to 1 odds on that StuG with four HULL DOWN sherms. Well it was a VERY good plan and the oods should have been in your favour BUT MAN! were you ever unlucky! Talk about AI horse shoes where the sun doesn't shine! (BTS: are you guys SURE there is no cheat code in the AI? I know you have sworn there is NOT, just kidding ) Does anyone know what the chances of a first shot hit are, at 250 - 300 meters? 50 - 50? (you did say you had a %60 chance to hit, so that means 4 times you missed, rolling the dice to get a %60 chance to hit) Is that info in the manual? Is the randonizing factor in the algorythym the time clock on your computer? If so does the time clock change ENOUGH to render a different result when four shots are made within that close a time frame. (i.e. four first shot hits to brew up all for Sherms) What is the randomizing factor that "seeds" the odds results generating algorythym? I assume its the computers internal time clock? Is this covered in the manual? -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> [This message has been edited by aka_tom_w (edited 06-17-2000).] [This message has been edited by aka_tom_w (edited 06-17-2000).] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest aka PanzerLeader Posted June 17, 2000 Share Posted June 17, 2000 I had a game of Riesberg in the beta demo a few days ago...I placed an 88 up the hill at the back of the German position. It targeted a Sherman at 600-700 meters, missed about 10-15 shots, and finally got knocked out...PLUS it was veteran!! Couldn't believe what I had just witnessed! I noticed I had to place the 88s really close to the Shermans if I wanted to kill them with my first-second shot...Not very realistic, the opposite should have been true. I'm puzzled. Maybe it was corrected in the gold. [This message has been edited by aka PanzerLeader (edited 06-17-2000).] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobbaro Posted June 17, 2000 Share Posted June 17, 2000 Yup Tom, that is the way it has felt to me as well. And it seems that the AI usually has the best of it in those deals. Although, last night I did take out the 3 stugs with no shermans lost. I did have the advantage of blindsiding them with unbuttoned tanks from the German's left flank as the soon to die stuggs attacked the 2 story house objective loaded with 3 squads, a bazooka, and a HQ. I was playing to explore whether the tanks could sneak through the woods along lanes to come out in the rear. I had them loaded with the another platoon, its leader, 2 machinge guns and a bazooka. Didn't work out. Lost a little time to various difficulties easily overcome and failed to find any lane path wide enough along its entire length to pass. The third platoon hot footed it to the woods also and arived in time to protect the tanks in the woods takeing on Germans attacking the sound sightings they got. The Amis did well, losing only one squad and weakening the other two, to the loss or breaking of all the opposing forces. The platoon riding in helped a little but went on with their original mission in the rear taking care of the incoming reinforcements arriving there. The tanks backed out, knocked out the stugs, and knocked the remaining enemy on the heads, while the guys in house and the friendly reinforcements came on to take the objectives. Altogether a satisfactory result. But, I know what you mean Tom about the hit modling. It appears an issue worth re-examining. [This message has been edited by Bobbaro (edited 06-17-2000).] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott C Posted June 17, 2000 Author Share Posted June 17, 2000 I don't think this is any evidence of a fault in the program, just a very unlikely outcome. Consider that, if the first-shot-hit probability is only 1/3, four consecutive first shots will all hit one time in 81. Also, only two of the Shermans got off third shots, so a rough calculation indicates the odds of all ten shots missing might be something on the order of one in 100,000. There have been well over 15,000 downloads of the demo, so counting all the times the scenario was likely played in the beta and gold demos, the odds of something like this happenning once aren't that bad - probably in the range of a few percent. It's highly improbable, yes, but there have been a LOT of games of CE played, and I'm sure 4v1 fights have not been uncommon. Actually, if nothing like this had happened, it would be evidence of a fault, since there are so many wildly improbable outcomes that some of them would have had to happen. ------------------ Questions, comments, arguments, refutations, criticisms, and/or sea stories? [This message has been edited by Scott C (edited 06-17-2000).] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aka_tom_w Posted June 17, 2000 Share Posted June 17, 2000 <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Scott C: I don't think this is any evidence of a fault in the program, just a very unlikely outcome. Consider that, if the first-shot-hit probability is only 1/3, four consecutive first shots will all hit one time in 81. Also, only two of the Shermans got off third shots, so a rough calculation indicates the odds of all ten shots missing might be something on the order of one in 100,000. There have been well over 15,000 downloads of the demo, so counting all the times the scenario was likely played in the beta and gold demos, the odds of something like this happenning once aren't that bad - probably in the range of a few percent. It's highly improbable, yes, but there have been a LOT of games of CE played, and I'm sure 4v1 fights have not been uncommon. Actually, if nothing like this had happened, it would be evidence of a fault, since there are so many wildly improbable outcomes that some of them would have had to happen. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> What I am disagreeing with is the way the third shot miss is modeled. If it has been reported as high as 20% ( 1 in 5) I still think that is too high a chance to miss on the third shot especially after two previous ranging shots that they watched miss. And four first shot hits in a row in one minute against four hull down tanks, from a turretless tank? (how far apart were all your sherms? Did the StuG have to actually move its chassis to turn to shoot at the last one or two?) if you told me that the odds on that are 1 in 100,000 and you just got unlucky then as I said luck still plays a big role, BUT still FOUR first shot KO's in 1 minute makes me wonder how the randomizing factor that determines the out come of the shot is "seeded" or created and is it really totally random? Just asking questions that's all. This is still the BEST wargame I have ever played and I can't wait to get my copy to play it day and night, BUT Four First Shot KO's in one minute? Makes me wonder, (WOW was that ever unlucky!) -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> [This message has been edited by aka_tom_w (edited 06-17-2000).] [This message has been edited by aka_tom_w (edited 06-17-2000).] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobbaro Posted June 17, 2000 Share Posted June 17, 2000 The hard, objective odds are difficult to credit, when it is your guys losing, I know. I just think it is worth examining with the inside hit machinery exposed to convince our little subjective doubting minds. I have experinced this sort of thing in another game and made the same observation to the players as Scott. A little play testing bore out the rule of the capriciousness of odds being impersonal and evenhanded. Getting a large enough sample to smooth out the random bumps is essential to the process. In VoT I have felt that the infantry gun should do better than the tanks on their shots when they are mine and that it does too well when it isn't. I am totally sure a decient testing of the statistics would prove out as Steve has avowed it would-- no special help to the AI. It seems that a stationary gun should out shoot the tanks. They should have range cards etc. what ever those kinds of units do to get an edge. Tanks running on the fly should find ranging in first shots a little more difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aka_tom_w Posted June 17, 2000 Share Posted June 17, 2000 <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Bobbaro: In VoT I have felt that the infantry gun should do better than the tanks on their shots when they are mine and that it does too well when it isn't. I am totally sure a decient testing of the statistics would prove out as Steve has avowed it would-- no special help to the AI. It seems that a stationary gun should out shoot the tanks. They should have range cards etc. what ever those kinds of units do to get an edge. Tanks running on the fly should find ranging in first shots a little more difficult.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE> I really don't doubt the AI, I'm sure there is no cheating and no cheat code. What I want to know is how "random" is the calculation that determines the out come of four first shot hits from a turretless tank in under one minute, be it AI or Human or PBEM, it matters not. That is I admit, a VERY lucky, result. maybe the SAME time code was used for each random result calculation based on time and so the results of each shot would be the same. It just seems "too" lucky to me to take out four hull down Sherms from a turretless (buttoned?) StuG in under a minute? -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobbaro Posted June 17, 2000 Share Posted June 17, 2000 Well, I agree that there would be some benifit to our stinging hides for having it explained how the hit machinery works. There should be improving accuracy on subsequent shots up to some limit, especially against stationary targets. Now, that said, there is the counter accuracy effect of being shot at and especially for near misses or actual hits deflected by protection. So, what does the model include? A good question even if the answer includes fuzzy logic. [This message has been edited by Bobbaro (edited 06-17-2000).] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobC Posted June 17, 2000 Share Posted June 17, 2000 I was playing CE last night as the Axis with a 150% advantage over the Amis. I got 5 Stugs. Three advanced, took hull down positions and took out 5 shermans to only one loss. This is exactly opposite of what usually happens when I play the Amis. When I am the Amis, my 3 or 5 Shermans usually take out the German Stugs with few losses. Does the material balance setting also affect the chance of a hit calculations? I didn't think it did. It may be that I just use the Stugs better than the AI. ------------------ "Freedom is not a right. It is a privilege bought and paid for with the blood of patriots." Robert A. Heinlein in Starship Troopers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aka_tom_w Posted June 17, 2000 Share Posted June 17, 2000 <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Bobbaro: Well, I agree that there would be some benifit to our stinging hides for having it explained how the hit machinery works. There should be improving accuracy on subsequent shots up to some limit, especially against stationary targets. Now, that said, there is the counter accuracy effect of being shot at and expecially for near misses or actual hits deflected by protection. So, what does the model include? A good question even if the answer includes fuzzy logic. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> I understand it has been explained that there is increasing chance to hit after each subsquent shot. How much? I'm not sure, but Charles has stated he modeled an increased chance to hit with each subsquent shot. Ican't find the post now, but I'll look for it. -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackhorse Posted June 17, 2000 Share Posted June 17, 2000 <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Scott C: I just finished a game of CE vs. the AI. AI was Germans with +75% forces. They only got 4 StuGs, though they did end up with a grand total of 15 infantry platoons. I nailed 3 of the StuGs for the loss of 1 Sherman. The final (buttoned!) StuG came into sight right at the end of a turn. During the orders phase, I check LOS for all my (unbuttoned!) Shermans. Range is about 250m. All 4 are hull down with at least 60% hit chance and OK to Good kill chance. The results after one turn: Shermans fire 10 shots. Closest miss ~20m. StuG fires 4 shots, brewing 4 Shermans.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE> I guess your guys skipped the boresite line this morning huh? Seriously though, I'd like to see the replay of that, or some screenshots. I'm curious. What other events were going on in the LOS between the Shermans and the STUG? Was there smoke? Did any vehicles move? Did other more threatening targets present themselves? Did the Shermans have only HE? There is something about this particular situation that seriously swayed the odds in the Stugies favor, because you had no apparent problems bagging the other 3. Please let us look at this situation and give you some feedback. Allons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aka_tom_w Posted June 17, 2000 Share Posted June 17, 2000 check out this thread: We have been over this one once before. And Charles did answer with some stats... http://www.battlefront.com/discuss/Forum1/HTML/004572.html ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobbaro Posted June 17, 2000 Share Posted June 17, 2000 Rob, when I am in a head to head shoot out, I *feel* that the AI usually wins. I think a human player against the AI on *replays* should have a decided advantage in being able to work to a flanking or ambush position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobbaro Posted June 17, 2000 Share Posted June 17, 2000 Thanks Tom, for hauling back that old thread, "How Does the Game Simulate Tank Gunnery?" It pretty much says it all. I had forgotten it and the detailing of the modling that Bigtime provided there. Whadda ya expect from the web festooned mind of such an old timer as me, broken down further from the excessive practice of patience? [This message has been edited by Bobbaro (edited 06-17-2000).] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Murx Posted June 18, 2000 Share Posted June 18, 2000 Just for my 2 cents: Succecive shots work ! I layed a direct fire of 60mm in VoT on the small building at the slope. After several shots (some missed widely) nearly all of the second half (must be 8-10 rounds in that turn) exploded at target ! So they get more & more accurate. murx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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