Carolus
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Posts
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Days Won
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Posts posted by Carolus
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23 minutes ago, chrisl said:
And I just gave a WAG. I'm sure there's a lot of variability in what's on the drones, and that's probably about the best that any but the most expensive will have. If you have a few billion dollars you can do ~10 cm from space.
And that's just the optics.
I shudder to imagine drones with chemical sensors. Just think if they could be trained to seek out every breath of vodka on the frontline.
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1 hour ago, Grigb said:
P.S. Indeed, Murz left full blown suicide note. Except to get a feel of the mood.
And this is how RU army learns from mistakes.
"Morale is strong, brothers"
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Nevermind, gentlemen.
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1 hour ago, Kinophile said:
Separate war but shows how quickly an organization can shift into a new Unmanned System.
https://news.usni.org/2024/02/19/houthi-lethal-underwater-drones-adds-new-threat-to-red-sea
I'll lay odds we'll yet see a Ukrainian Unmanned Underwater System take out a full Russia sub. It's just that kind of war now.
Well, well I have always wondered what Iran gets out of toppling Yemen (besides squeezing the Saudis from two sides) but control of the international waterways did not occur to me.
I had assumed Houthis were just the regular Islamist militia with AKs, RPGs and Toyota trucks. But Iran has really upgraded their capabilities while the West was sleeping on it.
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5 minutes ago, Butschi said:
Vichy France would like a word with you.
The collaborator regime? Which was neither free nor honorable?
I am not even sure they had much self-respect.
Surely, you jest.
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It's a goddamn massacre in the air
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The attorney general in Germany has announced the beginning of investigations into a partner of the North Stream 2 pipeline project for handing over documents with sensitive NATO information to Russia.
There is no charge yet, but the suspected crime is treason.
I find it quite astonishing: There have been maybe 2 or 3 court cases of treason in Germany since 1949. Now there are 3 or 4 ongoing cases and investigations related to Russia over the last 2 years.
It took the Ukraine War to shake the tree, as tragic as that sounds.
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Rheinmetall and Ukrainian secretary Kamyschin have signed a letter of intent to build an artillery munitions factory for up to 1 million shells per year in Ukraine under Rheinmetall management.
Since this is just an LoI, it will take unfortunately years to realise.
But what I find interesting is this: Western companies are ready to enter long-term economic agreements with Ukraine and commit to long-term planning with the Ukrainian government.
That is not the behaviour of an industry which expects a Ukrainian collapse.
This is supposed to enable Ukrainian defense - and offense - for years to come.
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17 minutes ago, panzermartin said:
Another hint is that we don't see any mass mobilization from Russia this time yet Ukraine seems rather eager to gather personnel even asking/forcing people to return from abroad.
We don't see "mass mobilisation" in Russia because the political system is fragile and they are afraid that pushing too hard could make the whole thing topple down. Despite the rethorics of fighting the entirety of NATO in Ukraine at the moment (which makes me wonder what the regime will say when they actually pick a fight with NATO).
Besides, 20.000 men per month is not a significant mobilisation for you?
We are watching a war that is being fought with the utmost brutality and determination yet at the same time is being "cooked on a small flame" by political leadership in order to keep the civil economy from being affected as much as possible.
Same is true for Ukraine's supporters. It's a localised conventional war and a global hybrid war that is supposed to not get noticed and cost less than a COINS operation for the West - where most people refuse to even acknowledge that they are under attack.
So I don't think that not seeing mass mobilisation is a positive hint for Russia. I think it is very characteristic for this war.
Imagine if the USA had to draft 20.000 men per month for 20 months, and it has almost triple the population of Russia. It would be considered a scandal. In Russia less so, yet still they rely on Africans, Arabs and Asians to bolster that number and keep the war as much under the radar for the average Russian as possible.
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4 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:
That is not a security guarantee agreement though. It is about supply of arms, various ways of political cooperation etc. But security guarantee is a type of military alliance which nobody will sign with Ukraine now, obviously.
That is true. Only 21) and 22) allude to that direction.
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55 minutes ago, zinz said:
Has anyone seen any content for the security guaranties Ukraine has signed with so many countries recently?
I hate this journalism where essential information is left out all the time....
This fellow summarized the German-Ukrainian agreement:
QuoteI have worked through the 10-page bilateral security commitment, which is now valid for 10 years between Ukraine and Germany (can be extended). The most important takes
1) Germany […] provide long-term military support to the Ukrainian security and defence forces to fully restore Ukraine's territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders
2) Germany will […] promote joint procurement and other forms of armament cooperation together with European and international partners to strengthen the Ukrainian security and defence forces
3) Germany will continue and where necessary expand its support in strengthening the capacity of Ukrainian security and defence forces personnel […]
4) Germany will […] reduce existing barriers for cooperation, encourage its defence industry to invest […] including by evaluating options for supporting the localisation of production in Ukraine, as well as by exploring opportunities for joint production
5) Germany will examine […] measures to mitigate existing supply chain bottlenecks impeding the development of capacity and capability of both Germany and Ukraine for manufacturing of priority weapons and ammunition
6) Germany will encourage its defence industry to work with Ukraine, provide assistance to its industry to identify potential areas for cooperation, and further explore localizing repair and maintenance in Ukraine […]
7) […] intend to further expand their existing bilateral cooperation to strengthen Ukraine’s resilience against nuclear, biological and chemical weapons-related risks
[…] will work together to secure IT infrastructure from cyber-attacks
9) To strengthen and expand their existing economic cooperation […] promotion of small and medium sized enterprises (SME) and will provide a secure legal and institutional framework for substantial private sector investments […] for domestic and international investment in Ukraine
10) In view of Ukraine’s European perspective, Germany will provide assistance for Ukraine to harmonise its regulations with EU standards
11) […] Germany will continue to provide long-term support to Ukraine’s overall energy sector with a special focus on green energy transition
12) Germany will support Ukraine in enhancing the resilience of its critical infrastructure, particularly energy, water and heat infrastructure
13) […] Germany will engage Ukrainian specialists with experience in critical infrastructure security to implement relevant projects on its territory and in partner countries […]
14) […] will continue mutual cooperation in the field of countering Russian and any other information manipulation and propaganda
15) In order to counter all types of activities of SOC (serious and organised crime) […] take measures to: conduct joint operations to detect and suppress SOC […] create joint working groups and joint investigation teams
16) Given the extraordinary scope of the challenge caused by Russia’s massive contamination of Ukrainian soil through mines, ammunitions and other explosive ordnances, Germany aims to continue providing substantial funding to humanitarian demining efforts alongside partners
17) […] reaffirm that the Russian Federation is to be held accountable for the damages inflicted on Ukrainian territory. Russian sovereign assets should remain immobilised until the Russian Federation has paid for the damage it has caused to Ukraine.
Germany, working with its partners in the European Union and within the G7, aims to continue to pursue all lawful routes through which revenues from Russian assets can be used to support Ukraine, in accordance with European and international law.
18) […] intend to strengthen their cooperation in the field of customs, as well as in the field of financial market supervision, including public sector banks
19) […] recognise that Ukraine and the whole of Europe will not be secure until there is a just peace that respects Ukraine’s rights under international law and the UN Charter
21) In the event of future Russian armed attack against Ukraine, at the request of either of the Participants, the Participants will consult within 24 hours to determine appropriate next steps
22) Germany affirms that in those circumstances […] it would provide Ukraine […] with swift and sustained security assistance, modern military equipment across all domains […] and economic assistance, seek agreement in the EU to impose economic and other costs on Russia […]
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1 minute ago, FancyCat said:
https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/fear-and-loathing-in-munich/
A reminder for all America's uselessness, Europe remains a close competitor.
While I am not in favor of it, I can understand the reasoning well.
The European arms industry is structured completely differently than the American one.
They cannot be ordered to increase production, they rely entirely on orders.
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Decent SPGs, but a long wait time.
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New toys arrived. I wonder what the launcher looks like.
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Still waiting for confirmation, but if true. this is truly getting comical.
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34 minutes ago, JonS said:
That's maple syrup on my pancakes eh, as the Canadians would say.
13 minutes ago, poesel said:RSA could restrict the export of arms & ammunition. IANAL, but I'm pretty sure they have laws for that. But I doubt they would use that card unless they want to be cut off from western arms, too.
Yeah, that would be a card they can only play once.
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37 minutes ago, dan/california said:
You are quite correct that it is not bad. Not bad may or may not be good enough. Among other things no one in NATO oughtto be counting on South African production of anything, they seem to be busy joining the other side.
Just because a Rheinmetall plant is in South Africa does not mean that South Africa has any control over the product. It is not a nationalized industry like in the USA. It's a private enterprise.
If a European country orders shells from Rheinmetall, it does not matter where the plant is located - all locations will work to fulfill the contract.
If you think South Africa could in any way meddle with that, you are vastly overestimating the influence of South Africa. The only thing that could realistically hamper ammo production for a NATO customer in SA is the fact that half the country experiences rolling brown-outs while the other half experiences rolling black-outs of its electricity grid.
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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:
Well first off, they are already there:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm
So he would have to pull them out - which looks a lot like running away and one thing Poppa T does not like is looking weak and scared. And as soon as the shooting starts and the US takes casualties the whole discussion becomes moot - PAX Americana and all that.
Not to be a party pooper, but that is absolutely not the case with the Trump base.
As soon as US troops took casualties in the Middle East lately, the MAGA sentiment was "why are we there in the first place? These troops should be used to guard the Mexican border."
It will be the same when US troops in the baltics get attacked by Russians.
"Why are we stationed in lands that we have no association with? In opposition to peaceful and smart Putin?"
Pulling out will not be seen as weak, but as putting America first.
That does not mean I believe that the US will definitely abandon NATO.
But the idea of Pax Americana is now seen as a waste of tax money -that is the pure and utter conviction of the Trump base. And the other Republicans will go along with it, because they realise what a loyal voting base you can get if you just tell them what they want to hear. You can have a rape video with an underage girl get leaked on the internet and the Trump base would defend you and call you a second coming of Christ, with the video being doctored by Banderists in Ukraine.
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Russian Starlink not just in occupied territory, but directly on the zero line too.
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Russian Army gets satellite internet. Potentially significant.
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The total transparency the battle space is a real shame. It makes it almost impossible to perform ambushes and maneuvers on a larger scale.
Without that visibility, the RA could certianly be enticed into new spearhead or thunder run attacks if the UA gave ground and allowed them to penetrate deeper - only to annihilate them again with light infantry and artillery from all sides. I don't think RA losses mounted ever as quickly again as during the first weeks of the war. Russian officers are just very reliable at not learning their lesson.
But even without total transparency which could make this feasible, the internal and external reaction to it might be too costly. The retreat would have to look real to everyone, after all.
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16 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:
"For several months, our team avoided discussing publicly internal issues to prevent potential Russian exploitation for propaganda. However, as these problems become increasingly visible and publicly acknowledged, we've chosen to openly discuss them."
Seems all pretty accurate.
The best thing Ukraine can do is dig in, minimize their own losses, maximize Russian losses, only take offensive actions when an opportunity presents itself, stabilize the country internally, mobilize the civilian economy to support the military with goods and supplies (as seems to be finally the case with the drone productions springing up all over), mobilize military personnel to create reserves and make rotations possible, keep their heads above water with foreign aid, and continue to degrade the Russian industry with strategic long-range bombing and sabotage and pin-point killings.
Make Ukraine the new graveyard of empire.
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Something in or near Ishevsky exploded, a town ca. 1000km east of Moscow. There is a missile manufacturing plant there, and a site for decommissioned rocket fuel, but it is not yet known what exactly happened and why. There is also a small arms factory there.
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Some hackers did some sleuthing about Shahed imports.
"The Iranian side announced a starting price of $375,000 per unit. However, during the negotiations, an agreement was reached for $193,000 per piece when ordering 6,000 units or $290,000 when ordering 2,000 units. The total price of the production contract, including the transfer of technologies, equipment, 6,000 pieces of UAVs and software, is roughly $1.75 billion. According to other published documents, at least partially, Russia conducts its financial transactions and payments with Iran in gold."
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Much less interesting than the aircraft news, but it is nice to see that Ukraine does not forget infantry equipment:
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/czech-bren-2-will-be-assembled-at-the-facilities-of-ukroboronprom-enterprises/
CZ Bren 2 assault rifles will be assembled in Ukroboronprom facilities.
More NATO integration is never wrong, even though Ukraine will continue to struggle with standardisation of its massive equipment collection for the foreseeable time.