kimbosbread

So given all this, how far along do we thing South Korea, Japan and Taiwan’s nuclear weapons programs are? I gotta imagine nuclear non-proliferation is basically dead as a result of this conflict.

Exactly this.

More important than the bridge being damaged again, does this indicate the next phase of the counteroffensive has begun? Also, what happened to the Freedom of Russia legion? Caesar is still giving interviews in stuff, but were they forced into inactivity due to Russians moving more forces into their AOA?

Re Luhansk as the place for a Russian offensive- sure, it's dumb because Russia has very limited offensive resources, but on the other hand, there's no other practical place to use them. Mass them on the southern front and those t72s and bmps will get destroyed in short order. Around Bakhmut, not really favorable terrain. There's a very good argument to just husband those in Russia, but maybe Putin is very leery about having a big, unified mechanized force in Russia ready for another coup. Re Putin's goals, freezing the conflict is his best outcome at this point- closely tied to saving his skin from another coup. The guilty rich client and excellent legal team's delay tactics above are exactly right. This is why the US's slow rolling of weaponry is so silly. There's a very good chance De Santis would win against Biden if he makes the primary- remember Biden is as unpopular as Trump was at this point in their respective presidencies (at least of a few months ago) and prices are very high. If Biden was able to secure the collapse of Russia, I think that would be a powerful campaign point- "Look at me, it took a Democrat to finish Reagan's work". Plus America is pretty pro Ukraine, so it's not like most people oppose less weapons. Because Putin wants to freeze the conflict, we need to unfreeze it and give Ukraine the proverbial 55-gallon KY Jelly drum of military hardware they need.

To add, it’s not just barrel wear, lack of pgms, coordination and ammunition shortages, but also trained crews. And maybe general maintenace on the SPGs; I assumed they are not maintained that well, especially after being out in the field for a year and a half.

Because they have given up on military matters, care more about money than Eastern Europe, and are basically paralyzed between France’s dreams of greatness and German malaise. Unfortunately, they feel the same way about China, and have a similar lack of ability to make a difference there even if they cared. Eh, I’ll take China for $200. This whole thing is about deterring China. Sure, the US cares about Ukraine, and we’ve been helping for a while, but you gotta remember how much of the aid we’ve sent between 2014-2022 was lost to corruption (80% was the number I heard from military people I trust), so there’s an element of rebuilding trust, but Ukraine vs Russia in an guerilla war that makes Afghanistan look quaint would crush Russia too, in the long run. However, a more immediate response is required in order to stave off an invasion of Taiwan in 2025 or 2027.

I gotta imagine the unrotated troops are doing pretty badly, after enjoying spring rains in their garbage boots + equipment, and now summer heat. Unrelated, would releasing a bunch of cadaverine in Russian cities or bases during summer heat be considered a war crime?

Yeah, Turkey won’t be getting into the EU, not with Erdogan and not with their economic “issues”. Their annualized inflation rate is still almost 40%, and all sorts of election promises about free natural gas. Also, it’s not like the US can’t just create another military alliance if it feels like it.

Instead of being upset, you should be smug and pour yourself a nice scotch! That said, clearly this hasn’t played out yet. Many pages back during that heady weekend it was speculated that one backroom deal might see the ultranationalists being given a few months to see if they could do anything useful in the war, and then, if not, the realists would take over. I suspect that timeline would be accelerated by the re-takage of Bakhmut or cracking the main defensive line in the South. I am very curious what the deal is! EDIT: A fun idea for someone who has too much time… track predictions over time of all these public people. Keep a record, for a while. Obviously the public at large doesn’t care, but enthusiasts would certainly pay attention.

Like it or not, most of the allies don’t matter apart from absorbing wounded/civilians. In terms of military, if the US decided to give better weapons faster, that would be enough. And it’s not like the Poles, Baltics or UK have any qualms about this either. Those same allies would also roll over on Taiwan without anything but a stern fax. The US on other cannot let Taiwan be overrun.

The epic influx from Africa + ME over the next decade as water/food/war issues in those areas continue is going to cause serious political instability in Europe. I propose that as part of reparations, Russia gets to take the asylum seekers and put them in the far east.

Agree on the whole “waaaaa but cluster munitions” if we’re not gonna provide ways to win the war faster (and save far more lives this way). Slightly off topic, but it reminds me of how Europe’s first instinct with LLMs is to worry and regulate, whereas the US as usual is going all in. And then in 10 years Europe will wonder why the still don’t have a modern software industry. EDIT: The Ariane program is another case of this where it’s head in sand, waah, and now 20y behind Spacex. At a certain point you can no longer get in front of the problem. Shame if that happened with Ukraine. EDIT2: Presumably Europe knows that the victim of a less than total victory for Ukraine is nuclear non proliferation, which is a much bigger “waaaahhhhhh” than cluster munitions.

A charity is like a business in that it offers a product. In a charity’s case, it is feelz, or just a place for children of the rich to work without stress. The recipient of the charity’s largesse or whatever they do is a tertiary concern in most cases. Think about all those charity balls and villas on Lac Leman, you’d have to be Jesus to not enjoy those!

That’s going to put big pressure on Urozhaine. Presumably Russia will retreat in order to avoid encirclement in short order?

There were major protests that prompted the end of the lockdowns that erupted somewhat spontaneously. Of course responsible people were found and locked up, but the government changed course very fast, which indicates a less than stable situation on the ground, especially given the epic real estate crunch, which represents a significant fraction of GDP and store of wealth.

On the bright side, blowing up the ZNPP has some strategic upside for the US vis a vis the coming war in the South China Sea. Our position as the #1 food producer in the world is even stronger, and our dear friends in the east are in an even more precarious position given their reliance on food imports and use of phosphate fertilizers due to poverty soil. EDIT: Yes, I'm assuming there is no way to deter Russia from blowing up the plant. Poland invading Belarus might be preferable to a slow boil.

Random thought- where are oligarchs getting their private jets serviced? I assume none of them are so poverty they’d use Embraer, so it’d have to be Dassualt or Gulfstream, right?

Yeah, but the problem is detection and engagement speed if it’s a ground platform. First, how noisy do you want to be? Can thermal/optics catch a treetop target at 10km? Second, at 10km you’ll have a very brief window to fire your missile, and likely the enemy chopper has fired one too, so you are losing some vehicles in any case. The narrow window makes it seem to me like chance of success is not that high. Even if your missile is going mach 5, you are looking at 6 seconds once youy’ve detected the helicopter and your missile has launched.

Yeah I’m dubious. Not to mention lack of trained crews.

Two more things: Consumeable, so you save weight and dont need a complicated recovery and maintenance system Optical or thermal targeting, so you don’t need a radar or some other active system that emits across the spectrum and can easily be detected Autonomous is best, so you don’t leak the presence of the system at all- and it means you don’t need a transmitter on the vehicle, or a big antenna on the drone.

What’s needed is an autonomous loitering anti-air munition. That solves the helicopter pop-up issue from the perspective of the manpad-wallah on the ground. EDIT: Or you have a drone designed to detect helicopters from above, and then have a ground-based missile that can be requested, but that might be a much more complex system.

Patience is in order, I think. Russia is throwing in their reserves, and in doing this commits their supplies and vehicles to within standard artillery and fpv drone range. As long as Ukraine can push a km here, and km there and keep the rail line to Melitopol threatened (and especially once the bridge gets hit), conditions are set for things to proceed slowly until there is a collapse, just like Kherson last year. You cannot just expect to roll through several lines of prepared defenses overnight. Once Russia burns through their reserves, they won’t have a backup plan, other than blowing up the ZNPP. In fact, a big reason to push through Bakhmut and Donetsk is that it is likely less fortified than Melitopol, and is less likely to trigger the ZNPP being blown up.

Meh, I’m less concerned about long range missles. TU-95/22/160: Cheap drone/cruise missiles will start having much better range quickly, and one could imagine a truckload of these things flying from Kazakhstan somewhere and then flying 1000km to the airfield and using a camera to identify the target. Russia just doesn’t have that many of these. Black Sea Fleet: Won’t exist for that much longer. Iskanders/Khinzals: They can’t make enough to overwhelm air defences, plus those factories are nice targets for drones/sabotage. I’d be much more worried about terrorism honestly.

Or incompetence or malice. Look at the persistent anti-nuclear power efforts supported by the Soviet Union. They don’t care which group they use, just the ends that matter.

Excellent, Russia is worried about the river crossing. How many of the maining reserves will now get pulled over there? Or will they use more precious assets like Iskanders and remaining jets/helos?