Beleg85
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Posts posted by Beleg85
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
Let's see what comes from this in terms of specific aid and how quickly it arrives. Some of it will arrive in days, but other things might take longer.
One of Republicans supporting UA talked to Ukranian soldiers that logistical lines are ready and prepared for new arrivals and some stuff may be packed already.
Also one guy working here on spedition/ transport movement in Eastern part of the country sold me a gossip (not confirmed, naturally) that they had some serious changes in some schedules of arrivals to and from Rzeszów airport planned already several weeks ago. So perhaps we may expect some new goodies sent soon.
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Sweet bloody Jesus if true (if not, it's good at least to laugh through tears). But seriously, perhaps this aid will indeed come soon, crazies in US politics are getting even more crazy lately. Maybe it's good sign, you know- like fever or diarrhea under certain conditions?
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Heard about this tactics before, but don't recall the clips from it:
This war provides never-ending stream of challanges as how to siumlate it for potentiall future Combat Mission games.
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Example of caltrps dropped on road from drone near Krynki:
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1 hour ago, Haiduk said:
Turtle-tank %)
This little CSS Merrimack will only need to find its USS Monitor now...
4 hours ago, The_Capt said:Comparing modern day China to Nazi-Germany is just plain dumb. Maybe pre-WW1 Germany - ignoring socialist ideologies and about four thousand years of history and culture. The idea that China somehow masterminded this whole thing (with zero proof, I might add) is laughable. China is stuck on the other side of this mess and is trying to deal with it on their end. They are going to pursue and promote their interests, just like we are.
Russia and Putin are throwing up all over themselves in some weird attempt to rebuild an Imperial Russia...and are failing brutally. Sure, Russia could "hold on" until we see some sort of Armistice. They will have gained a grand total of an additional 6-7% of Ukraine from what they controlled on 21 Feb 22. It only cost them around 500k men, most of their modern military equipment and diplomatic/geographic isolation that may last several decades....brilliant.
Ad vocem this entire "China is learning our tools of trade debate" and WWII analogies, worth to note one additional factor- did anyone heard about foreign observers in Russia in this war? North Korean? Iranian? Chinese? I read in one Russian newspaper in this war about some Iranian group, but they seem to be technicians manning the drones. It is possible similar groups are operating from North Korea, behind the frontlines, but nothing official.
If anyone seriously think about throwing gauntlet against US world order and learn in UA, one would need serious military mission collecting data, attached to military of "friendly" side, either in form of observers or even "advisors" like in Cold War- and this is much more than normal military attachee in embassy sending analysis to Central. I have little doubts such missions in UA exists from several Western states, but so far we didn't notice any constant presence of official advisors on Russian side. They could be there, naturally, and we simply don't see them...though it is improbable NATO intelligence wouldn't know about them either.
Even if they exist and are good as hell in analysing this war, it dosn't automatically mean such knowledge would be used by military of beforementioned third country. Technicialities, like qualities of some more advanced missile or AFV armours- perhaps (though it doesn't seem we gave UAF anything particulary fanciful). But rest? To use practical knowledge and implement it, like coordination in CC nets on battlefield, operation procedures etc. is not an easy task even for largely coup-proof militaries like Chinese Army.
If people use analogies with this war to Civil War in Spain- where is Legion Condor and similar units? Thousands of advisors on both sides? None state can seriously draw conclusions as to future war and remodel its military only by watching Youtube videos.
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Crocus saga and very accurate comic. How, tell how one cannot think in stereotypes about Russian state apparatus
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27 minutes ago, Haiduk said:Russian city is a mother of all cities. Jerusalem will be Russian or it will not exist at all. And his majesty Kitavras will rule there. That what it says secret Pigeon's Book. The Book of depth. Russian tsar is a tsar for all tsars.
Kitavras is a mythical creature (derived from "centaur"), which appeared in Moscovian apocryphal tales of 14-15th century about Solomon king. Pigeon's Book known since 15th century, there is tough mix of early Christian apocryphical texts cosmologia, influenced by Moscovites folk mythes and some paganism elements. This book was revered in some Orthodox groups. The book claims that "White Tsar" (white not so in modern sense, but as "true, orthodox, Russian" as countray to "pagan, tatars, mongols tsars") is a tsar over tsars and "Holy Rus' " is a mother of all lands.
Still worth to note he wrote "tsar" twice not by capital letters; he is getting out of from. Also, I think it is more "Dove Book" in English, but Pigeon sounds nicer.
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Just interesting article in english about lives on the frontline, from 93rd.
There are other articles and videos with eng subtitles on this website, may be worth a look.
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1 hour ago, Haiduk said:
As became knowingly this was Tsar-EW-tank,
Looks more like Gypsy King.
Very interesting occurence anyway. Similar armoured charges from Chasiv Yar are also quite impressive... they are reminescent of Vuhledar.
Meanwhile, another country is slipping slowly off Russin hands:
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Putin states Islamists couldn't target Russia and organize Crocus Hall attack, since country is "unique example of multi-confessional unity".
Poor jihadists; so much effort and like stone in the water.
Btw. their investigation comitee published materials from "telephone of one of suspects". Predictable results (sorry no english but one can figure out the clip):
https://twitter.com/JanR210/status/1776133072116736313
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Big Ukrainian drone strike on Russian military airfield near Morozovsk, Rostov. This Russian claim 40 drones, there were telegrams claiming even more. Clips show much less engaged by air defences.
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More attempts of assaults from today.
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1 hour ago, Baneman said:
These recent videos of Russian armoured assaults are insane !
I mean, I ( and almost everyone on this forum ) would be absolutely messing myself with worry if I even tried that in CM in a WW2 context. Are the Russian generals on drugs ?
Maybe it's just because I tend to be very logical, but I cannot wrap my head around this kind of behaviour after 2 (two !) years of seeing this sort of thing get smashed.
It's a form of greeting the spring for them. Russian soldiers leave their holes they lived all winter and simply cannot resists sending several own mechanized battalions into flames during these futile attacks. Some unconcious form of celebrating life rising everywhere around them probably. We have Eggs and Easter bunnies, they have crispy tanks. I didn't read him lately, but I am sure Dugin has entire theory already of suicide attacks as expression of uniquely Russian unharnessed elaine vital.
Check mate, cold-hearted Anglo-Saxons. You will never get it.
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2 hours ago, Haiduk said:
Of course, for some people to be an active patriot of own country and to be ready to protect own lifestyle with a force this is "extremism" %)
In most western countries there is clear distinction between nationalism and patriotism, and lack of common understanding of that fact in UA is one of main sources of disagreement between Western and Ukrainian concepts here. To claim there is nothing between nationalism and shapeless global consumer (or Russian puppet) is complete nonsense. Former search for imagined artificial homogenity, and when it don't find it in reality, it sooner or later want to force it; this lead to persecution of "others" (it's only question of trigger really, not even concrete postulates). While historically normal patriotism is usually rather neutral from moral standpoint. It's different understanding when comes to political taboo in many former USSR states, just like with allowance of Nazi symbolics we talked here many times; here it is complete no-no, while in Eastern Europe it's cool joke worth to paint on tanks- even when half of world watches.
Worth to note Russia officially mix those concepts too; what they officially say and do is in fact often full, shauvinistic nationalism (+ in imperial form) while nobody use that term there, instead talking about being "patriotic" 24h a day. I think binary notions of russophile/nationalist has something to do with lack of development of civic societies in countries under long Kremlin rule, especially in USSR. Lack of middle and balanced way in thinking about how individual can belong to society.
1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:There is no better use for far right elements than to draft them into the army and let them fight some other nation. They are supposed to like it.
When talking about real foreign extremists (not just guys far-right, but real Neo-nazi, neo-pagans and such) before 2022 we really talk about maybe several hundred people (maybe even less) in both Ukraine and LDPR. It seems that many of them wanted to travel to any war-torn country to live like their imagined uber-Vikings, with little political agenda in fact.
https://crestresearch.ac.uk/comment/extremist-foreign-fighters-in-ukraine/
I have personally little doubt that White T-Rex (Kapustin, creator of Russian Legion) and his folks in different circumstances could serve for Russians and murder Ukrainians now with pleasure, if it wasn't for Muscovite military to suck so much on organizational and esthetical level. Though his friends swear to God he changed and matured politically.
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Pres. Zelensky today signed decree lowering mobilziation age from 27 years to 25. It was voted by Verchovna Rada year ago, so now it seems it is closer from formal to actual mobilization.
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3 hours ago, billbindc said:
There is no reasonable critique of the Havana Syndrome claims on the grounds of Russia willingness or ability to directly attack American officials. The big question is if it is scientifically or otherwise plausible. So far, we have only seen effects without evidence of the cause. In addition, we are to believe that Russia has had this capability since perhaps the 1980's, they have been carting it around the world and no revelation of its existence has escaped the waves of file releases, defectors and intense American surveillance of the main enemy.
Is it possible. Sure.
Is it likely?
Before 2018 I wouldn't think it was likely to simply use top nerve agent on the streets of cosy British town against a turncoat agent, who had zero value for years already- at least when comes to will of Kremlin. On techncial side, we don't get scope of US intelligence insight and how much it knows about such potentiall program; limited sonic or microwaves weapons likely do not need some super-advanced technology to be effective in such environments (is it?). Investigators suggest US may know a lot more about it but is unwilling to share, most probably due to potentiall dyplomatic repercussions.
2 hours ago, billbindc said:I am in the same boat. People are in real pain. Something happened to at least some of them. The problem is that there is no scientifically plausible explanation yet and that there is some unknown, decades old Russian super weapon out there which is frankly the least plausible idea of all given how thoroughly much of the Russian intel services have been surveilled, infiltrated, defected from. Anything is possible but caveat emptor.
Perhaps it is devoped some joint cooperation with someone or in cell in third country. Iran, Cuba, China may be less penetrated by US intelligence (vide this Cuban spy serving yers as American diplomat). Russians could be as well just testers of such device. Overall, it is perhaps more prudent to not suppose we know everything about Russia in and out, just bacause it is Russia. They still may have their own mysteries, even despite leaking like damaged ship.
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In case someone didn't read it yet, worth to check newest well-documented investigation conclusions about so-called Havana syndrome. Guess who was behind it?
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On 3/30/2024 at 10:03 PM, Kinophile said:
Difficult to counter.
Ad vocem this issue with magazines: he talked about Bakhmut and Avdiivka battles where there was largest concentration of such wave tactics, but I remembered now curious explanation from a person cooperating with volunteers fighting actually on Kreminna front providing more details about it from their experience, something like 1 year ago. There they found bodies and took muscovite prisoners who were given exactly 3 magazines; not because Russians lacked AK ammo, but specifically to force first wave to come close to AFU trenches. Logic was to instruct them very carefully and profoundly that they have no chance in prolonged firefight when caught by defenders in open field; their only way of survival was to be close combat (oddly, these zeks were lavishly equipped with granades and rather solid vests).
So this was more modern version of musket era tactics, when sometimes soldiers were instructed to not load their muskets or even remove flintlocks entirely, to ensure bayonets were their only choice. Russians naturally still love this Suvorov spirit.
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Not to beat jihads and holy wars topic too heavily (there is too much Dune vibes lately), but perhaps worth to check anyway:
Worth to note it is one of first official documents of this level labelling Ukrainians as "Little Russians". The declaration states that the notion of "Little Russians" as a sub-ethnic group of the Russians "should receive legislative codification, becoming an integral part of the Russian legal system." This can be directed only toward religious nuts in Muscovia in revenge for separation of Ukrainian Church or part of larger trend inspired by Kremlin that will start to emerge in this system, of officially abandoning term 'Ukrainians" when in relation to Russians itself. Likely term Ukraine would stay as geographical indicator only, if such change would take place in katsap administration (which for now is dubious, but one never know what magic spells they will start to use there).
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3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
If I'm correct that ISIS-K is disappointed by the result, then logically they will try even harder to get the overreaction they seek. And soon. If I'm correct about that as well, then we should expect another attack in the near future (less than 6 months?). If Russia bites down hard on this future attack, and does overreact, then things could get very interesting for Ukraine.
If I were advising ISIS-K I would point out that the Putin regime, and to a large extent the Russian population as a whole, doesn't care about the loss of innocent life. As I quipped the other day, it's just a normal Friday in a brutal regime that has beaten down people's value of life. But blow up Saint Basil's Cathedral... yeah, I think that might get a very different response.
Steve
I wouldn't put mu money on that effect, but it is much too early to tell- maybe Kremlin will overreact with time. This war was quite eventful in things that would be difficult to comprehend before- like Russian Legion attacking Russia and Ukrainian drones flying directly over Kremlin and private residences of important muscovites- and so far none changed strategic stance of Russia that much, nor shaked it internally.
Definitelly we should watch this space though, even if it will overlap with Middle-Eastern topics a bit. Butterly Effect and all that.
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3 hours ago, The_Capt said:
Hamas was a bit different. Their goals were very likely an Israeli overreaction which would lead to its firm isolation within the region (any talks of Israeli - Saudi rapprochement are dead) with a window for possible widening of the conflict - why the Palestinians keep hoping the rest of the Arab world will ever give a f#ck is beyond me. The opportunity for global isolation, which is effectively occurring, was likely a stretch goal, if they thought of it at all.
Yup that was probably the cause, naturally remembering there is also strong Iran lead in this as well. Worth to add that ideologically Hamas partly inherited narrations from PLO about Palestinian nation, which are simply incongruent with global jihad that is to smash all nations altogether and turn Palestine into just one province of their dreamed Califate. When IS was at peak of their strength, there were fierce discussion (almost like a debate in Western sense) between certified "scholars" on their official Dabiq newslatter if Hamas is in fact cool or traitors of the Cause.* Something very similar was already happening then with Muslims from Central Asia- they were afraid that pure global jihad will turn into ethnic revenge in case of Tajik, Usbeks and other folks from region. It was always a big problem for Islamic State to control its cells/local influence so they didn't slide into proper resistance movements with jihadi spice on top.
*Btw. this journal was hillarious example of early medieval mind in post-modern form, very well edited and available online in perfect English (and several other languages) barely several years ago, it should still be there somewhere if anyone want to check. Imagine The Sun or Life of Stars or similar journal but in jihadi form and without naked woman on last page. They even had something resembling "hot warrior of the month" column with advices how to keep one's hair halal. That plus acute lack of any female in this magaize gave it (without offending anybody) actually strong gay vibes altogether. But hey, it's different world.
Meanwhile, official muscovite repressions are rather limited and tailored to family of assailants like in criminal cases:
IS kind-of-official IS Central spokesman Ansari yesterday gave a speech, in which he trolled Russia ("Northern Crusaders") pretty heavily. They clearly push narrative ropes now with Kremlin, fighting to be seen as real perpetrators.
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33 minutes ago, Erwin said:
Well, that was a depressing video.
Yup, knowing that pilot catapulted and survived to fly another day.
23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:My point was that terrorist acts are committed with a specific reaction in mind. The purpose of the attack, therefore, is to get the desired response. What we don't know about ISIS-K is what they wanted the Russian government to do. For example, massive security sweeps and detentions, 24/7 anti-Islamic tirades on Russian TV, widespread vigilante actions, etc. If that is what they wanted, it doesn't look like they're going to get it. Compare to Hamas' attacks which were met with exactly the response Hamas was looking for.
Steve
Russians seem slowly getting over with this whole issue. Wider effects will be like with Nord-Ost, or slaughter of schoolikds in Bieslan...which is close to null.
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Russians lost another fighter, probably SU-27 (misidentified as SU-35) near Sevastopol. Most probably friendly fire.
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20 minutes ago, dan/california said:
But in Beirut, and even Chechnya, the Russians only had one goal, to pacify their problems with the situation. They absolutely did not care about how much collateral damage they did, AT ALL. They have a different problem now with the economic dependence on Central Asian labor that their economy has developed. The war in Ukraine of course has made this dependence much worse. Probably the Russians usual brutalist approach can put the lid back on, but it is not a guarantee.
Smoking accidents in unfortunate places have already had a real effect on the Russian war effort in Ukraine, a whole new source of such problems could matter.
Yes, I mean of brutalization as general modus operandi ("You see what happens, Larry?"), now it will be tailored to potentiall islamists at home and abroad- who aren't that many in all. No need of wide repressions; signal must be received by wannabe martyrs and their families only, that's why public tortures and humilitation (well, that + expectations of public).
Russians would never admitt they are "dependent" on some migrant workers. For one, I wouldn't expect too much from Kremlin economical considerations when in rage- if they would, they wouldn't start this war at all. Two- Central Asiatic workers are generally considered expendable labour that can be used pretty freely (thought, like in Galeotti's articles, there are pragmatic people at Kremlin that will likely tone down possible reactions). They were subject to press-ganging in their official workplace since war started anyway and cases of abuses by nats, neo-nazis and other hate groups are common as anyone can remember.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
More and more curiosities start to appear in last weeks...