FancyCat
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Posts posted by FancyCat
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Some neat graphics in here: https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/DRONES/dwpkeyjwkpm/
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A drone can't get thru ECM, artillery can tho, the Time article link broadly states that they are complementary as a result. We have had several months of Ukraine relying on drones and the universal demand has been artillery shells, not more drones and from what I can read, artillery can do counter battery in a way drones can't. Obviously 800 of both is best but effectively Ukraine has been stuck with 0 artillery and 200 drones and their response has been more artillery.
I mean sure maybe in a future conflict I would prefer 800 drones but right now it's 800 artillery shells. Evolution is occurring but it's still 800 shells > drones.
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From february by Jack Watling at RUSI so I'm probably reposting old stuff, still good to review and compare to now, luckily it's good to see that the artillery ammunition situation is improving now in May.
QuoteArtillery has accounted for about 80% of casualties on both sides.
But Ukraine is having to ration its units to fire only 2,000 rounds a day across a 750 mi. front. Ukraine fields around 350 artillery pieces, so that in many areas of the front Ukraine has no artillery at all.
Russia has more than 4,000 artillery pieces in Ukraine, and is firing around 10,000 rounds a day across the front.
Russia understands the importance of artillery in a war of attrition. While Russian artillery use has been crude and has underperformed, the sheer volume of shells it is expending has given Moscow a decisive battlefield edge today. The country is set to produce another 1.3 million rounds of 152 mm caliber ammunition in 2024, along with around 800,000 rounds of 122 mm caliber ammunition. Alongside a remaining stockpile of around 3 million rounds, the delivery of over 1 million rounds from North Korea, and production contracts signed with North Korea, Belarus, Iran, and Syria, Russia will continue to have firepower dominance throughout the year.
https://time.com/6694885/ukraine-russia-ammunition/
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Drone this, drone that.....how about more artillery? More long range missiles? The ability to actually attack Russia proper with them? Gah, part of the reason drones are in such demand is lack of artillery ammunition and forced idleness of artillery. Surely a freaking artillery shell is cheaper and easier to make than a drone? (Assuming the cheap commercial Chinese ones still have a lifespan of a few days according to the last info and therefore more expensive drones are needed.) tho considering the silliness of the EU debating purchasing non-Western artillery shells maybe not cheaper until the Czechs knocked some sense into everyone.
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13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
This is excellent news. I'm not surprised as the UK and US have carefully coordinated policy since before this war started. It is not impossible for them to diverge from each other, but it is more likely they will stay on the same page. The UK and France and even Estonia made some strong statements first to stir things up, then the US. If that was how it was planned, it makes sense.
Steve
If the details on targeting using HIMARS from a year ago remain true, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/09/ukraine-himars-rocket-artillery-russia/
then the statement is not useful, it really depends on whether the U.S approves the targets and whether Ukraine still follows on U.S approval these days vs a year ago.
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Maybe they ran out of vehicles. Or maybe they really figured that Ukraine was deeply on the ropes and an advance was possible.
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'Russia’s aim is not to achieve a grand breakthrough, but rather to convince Ukraine that it can keep up an inexorable advance, kilometre by kilometre, along the front.' writes @Jack_Watling in the latest #RUSICommentary.
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Efforts to find more air defense batteries for Ukraine continue, Ukraine has stated they need 7 more Patriot or similar systems, they currently have 3, Germany has pledged 1, and the U.S is working on sending another. Zelensky has pointed out to effectively defend Kharkiv, 2 Patriot systems are required.
QuoteThe Biden administration is working to send an additional Patriot air-defense battery to Ukraine, people familiar with the matter said, as the US and its allies scramble to meet the country’s demand for more weapons to repel an intensified Russian assault.
The US is seeking to send a single battery along with radars, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. Ukraine’s European allies are also working on plans to send Kyiv additional air-defense systems from their stocks, the people said.
This week in Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Secretary of State Antony Blinken that his country needed two Patriot systems just for Kharkiv, the location of a new Russian offensive.
Earlier this year Kyiv had asked allies to provide at least seven additional air defense systems, with only Germany so far responding to that plea. Romania and Italy are among the EU member states considering sending the capability to Ukraine, some of the people said. Several others are looking to contribute financially to support the effort or with parts and missiles.
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Underscoring that U.S aid to Ukraine is not a blank check to Ukrainian oligarchs or American MIC.....new article, Blinken on the heels of his visit to Kiyv, is approving 2 billion of "foreign military financing" from the recently approved 61 billion to Ukraine bill, to use to improve its defense industry or purchase armaments worldwide. It's evidently clear that despite the funding being authorized, it's distribution and use is not automatically occurring. Also notable, that it occurs at the whim of the U.S government to secondarily release some funds to Ukraine. So always concern for corruption but definitely a rope the U.S can pull as part of its escalation management. Recall my article on the Czech Republic where it's perhaps 3 billion dollars for 500k of artillery shells. Considering everything else Ukraine needs, always worth pointing out 2 billion isn't a lot. Not for modern peer to peer conflict between the heirs of the Soviet Union.
QuoteBlinken said the new funding, in the form of a "first-of-its-kind defence enterprise fund," was coming at a "crucial time" and would help Kyiv get weapons it needs now. It would also "strengthen even more (Ukraine's) capacity to produce what it needs for itself," he said. Kyiv can also use the funding to buy arms from other countries, he added. The $2 billion in foreign military financing (FMF) draws mainly from $61 billion appropriated for Ukraine last month, a U.S. official said. It also includes $400 million of FMF that had not yet been allocated to a specific country and will now be going to Ukraine, the official said.
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blackouts again in Ukraine.
QuoteOur streets and homes go dark again. Due to severe energy imbalance and Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, at least seven Ukrainian regions and Kyiv City are introducing partial blackouts for tonight. Russia keeps trying to drag us into the pitch-black abyss it is falling into, but we still have our candles, our EcoFlows, and our Kindle readers at our fingertips.
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tbh, HIMARS strikes on Belgorod could have done a lot....its time the restriction be lifted. Especially if the situation is as serious as indicated.
QuoteUkrainian officials are making a new push to get the Biden administration to lift its ban on using U.S.-made weapons to strike inside Russia, saying the policy kept them from attacking Russian positions as they prepared for their major march toward Kharkiv.
A group of Ukrainian parliamentarians is in Washington this week to enlist congressional help on the issue, which they see as handcuffing the Ukrainian war effort as Kyiv looks to hit Russian military supply depots over the border.
Just this week, tens of thousands of Russian troops poured over the border in Ukraine’s northeast in an assault that Ukrainian intelligence officials had been anticipating for months. The Russians are smashing into overstretched, equipment-hungry Ukrainian units that are giving up ground as they regroup.
Ukrainian officials watched for weeks as the Russians massed near the Ukrainian border, unable to use U.S.-supplied weapons to conduct a preemptive strike due to Washington’s policy. The Biden administration, as a condition of sending the long-range weapons to Ukraine, said they could not be used to strike inside Russian territory.
Russia is well aware of this limitation, and was able to mass at least 30,000 troops and equipment on the border without fear of being hit by long-range U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems, which Ukraine has used to devastating effect on Russian troops inside Ukraine.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/14/ukraine-weapons-russia-00157970
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10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Ugh, now that 1) rings true and 2) is discouraging. We spend money for Ukraine on our own manufacturing to build capacity…which of course is going to come with western overhead and likely no small amount of fat-catting. FFS, it isn’t Ukrainian corruption we need to worry about, it may be the good old fashion western mil industrial complex.
Recall the headlines here: https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/ukraine-says-only-30-of-promised-eu-artillery-shells-received/
pledged artillery shells, only 30% of a million, the pledge was made in 02-2023, consider the Czech artillery hunt, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/inside-europes-drive-get-ammunition-ukraine-russia-advances-2024-03-06/ which is looking for shells beyond the EU, this initiative came on the heels of the EU arguing about purchasing ammo outside the EU
evidently, Ukraine does not get blank checks, with U.S leadership out of action, the EU didn't do anything beyond pledging money until 2024, and whatever it did, excluded looking for ammo from 3rd parties (why would they be having debates on it in the first place) until Ukraine looked ready to buckle. Sorta felt like the EU collectively forgot how to hunt for military equipment honestly. Now, the shells from the Czech initiative are inbound starting https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-czech-initiative-artillery-shells/32908749.html with 500k shells for about $3 billion? From this article, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/inside-europes-drive-get-ammunition-ukraine-russia-advances-2024-03-06/
and pricing for shells has increased on the global market,
QuoteUkrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told EU foreign ministers last week that Ukraine needed 2.5 million artillery shells this year, according to the Financial Times - suggesting a daily requirement of 7,000 - but the EU had sent only 400,000.
Demand from the Ukraine war has driven up prices to $2,800-3,200 per round from $700-$1,200 beforehand, two sources familiar with the market said.
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Consider the information shown in: https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-us-aid-going-ukraine
Now, someone correct me if I’m misreading or mistaken. 69 billion is a big number except, as far as I can tell, most of the money is directly earmarked for U.S manufacturers or NATO related to Ukraine. The only portion that Ukraine can use to purchase elsewhere is the FMF or foreign military financing, https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12040, and that says it’s around 6 billion. 6 billion for Ukraine to purchase ammo from 3rd parties. Most of the money is tied up in Western manufacturers and their production lines or from NATO country stockpiles or earmarked money for replacing said stockpiles.
no idea about the EU money except I certainly recall periods where Ukraine had to beg the EU to release portions of already pledged money to support the economy but again, uncertain the forms of funding.
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A lot of aid is payment for stuff not set to arrive for years. I've long been suspicious of the U.S over inflating the value of some of these aid packages, and certainly as shown via the artillery shell debate, 3rd party countries production was being taken by Russia, while the EU debated on purchasing them. If we view the EU debate and U.S debate as representing Western collective awareness of Ukraine's needs, let's be honest, it's not great. Why couldn't Ukraine order the shells and pay the supplier itself in the case of the EU or U.S? Makes sense to conclude this aid is largely not being sent in the form of cash with Ukraine able to do as it pleases.
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On 4/30/2024 at 8:02 AM, The_Capt said:
So this post and the one above it are what we like to call “losing the bubble”. You have let your passion for Ukraine cloud objective strategic thinking to the point that you are proposing a denial of reality to insert one of your own that matches that passion. In blunt terms, if you were on my staff I would be thinking you need a vacation and maybe a posting away for awhile.
1. We cannot simply discount/avoid/wave away the risks of a full on Russian political and social collapse.
How much I wished I was losing the bubble, for in that case Russia would be nearer to defeat than Ukraine, sadly 15 days away from your response noting that Russian collapse is possible and must be managed as a possibility, we have Ukraine essentially admitting its reserves are deployed and hard pressed with possible Russian offensives on new axes a definite possibility.
whatever the mind games that may be ongoing, in no way does the increasing chance of victory make dents in the potential of Russian collapse, therefore the concerns about Russian collapse, on the heels of Russia continuing to signal intent for a long war are misplaced. Macron had been signaling deescalation way past other Western leaders past the early part of the invasion intent on providing deescalation and prevent Russian fears of collapse/defeat, his switch from simple support of Ukraine to potential escalation of French troops in Odesa harkens to with passage of time, the potential of Ukrainian collapse.
You mentioned that it’s not necessarily total defeat in the event of Ukrainian collapse, a “Plan A” you mentioned envisioned a new Cold War, I think Putin would be aware of this and understanding the risk of long cold wars and the risk for Russia, I wager that the idea of initiating hybrid war with the West, dividing NATO and seizing whatever he can, understanding that his invasion of Ukraine and subsequent decision to not back out once the initial invasion failed locked him into a Cold War with the West is very much a possibility, one that drives partially the attitudes of the Baltic governments and Macron’s rhetoric. Meaning that if the goal of the West is managing to prevent nuclear war or preventing the destruction of NATO, then allowing Ukraine to fall and NATO to potentially be faced with the threat of actually activating the alliance to wage war with a Russian invasion is completely not furthering that goal. I.e the increasing rhetoric towards making Ukraine the final stop is a mirror of Russian rhetoric that drove the Russian collapse concerns partially in the first place, only its NATO beginning their ramp up.
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Part of this is on Ukraine in failing to mobilize, part of this is definitely on the West for failing to supply Ukraine, for wasting months and lives to engage in useless partisanship and concerns about paying non-Western countries for shells. No wonder France and the Baltics are rumbling about increasing escalation with deploying western forces to Ukraine, the idea of Russia collapsing as a result of this war is as far fetched as ever and increasingly the scenario of Ukrainian collapse and further territorial loss increases and rest assure, that image is a Western loss, no ifs or buts, if the West cannot pursue at least a stalemate (and why would Putin agree? He’s advancing) how horrid it would look globally and with regard to the Pacific in particular.
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It’s war, there’s tons of underlying information missing from our view. It’s certainly in neither Ukraine’s nor NATO’s view to showcase Ukrainian losses. Without knowing neither the remaining of Russian casualties vs Ukrainian in their advances, it’s hard to say if it’s worth it. And certainly while Russia has been bumbling, we are seeing increased ability, it would be wrong to automatically assume that these attacks are only helping Ukraine to grind down Russia and not vice versa. We do know that artillery rationing has been catastrophically low, as bad as the initial and following period of the invasion, and while Russian artillery is not as bad as its apex, artillery has been the main casualty cause in war in modern times, it’s not hard to reason that attrition has been tough on Ukraine.
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It would be great if Ukraine had the ammo to shoot everything it can see. One aspect underplayed was the ability of the American and to a lesser extent British and NATO logistics system to ferry equipment and armaments to Poland for inbound to Ukraine especially the rumored shipments from 3rd party countries. A scenario where Trump gets in office could see that logistics capacity be cut.
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On 5/9/2024 at 7:02 PM, danfrodo said:
I keep thinking that. They'll run out of arty tubes, IFVs & tanks, we think, based on the loss rates. But I also keep questioning whether we are being the german general staff circa 1941/2, where we continually think they are running out of everything but turns out.....
On the other hand we must recall the Afghan-Soviet War, if it was purely based on manpower, equipment, a lot of things that occurred would have ended differently.
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https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-ukraine-should-keep-striking-russian-oil-refineries
article on the strikes to Russian refineries, i would pull paragraphs out but frankly, the entire article is essential, basically lays out why these attacks are having a big effect on Russia but not to the global economy.
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10 hours ago, Carolus said:
Girkin is being accused of treason in Russia.
I tried my best to find the source, couldn't find it so.
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Entirely unserious. No wonder Macron is getting more heated rhetorically, at some point this becomes meaningless.
QuoteNuclear signalling loses all credibility when it is 1) used repetitively with no follow-through; 2) bandied in a blatantly flippant manner (F-16s have been flying around
for yrs fm the high North (Norway) to the Baltics (NATO policing) to 
(an F16 shot down a Sukhoi in 2015)
Quoting: The Kremlin is extremely loud today, Russia will treat F-16 multi-role fighter jets operated by Ukraine as nuclear-capable assets. "We cannot ignore the fact that these planes are dual-purpose platforms that can be used both for nuclear and non-nuclear tasks … No matter what modification of the aircraft will be supplied [to Ukraine] we will treat them as nuclear-capable and we will consider this step of the United States and NATO as a purposeful provocation," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. The ministry further warned Ukraine and its allies for “reckless steps”. "The regime in Kyiv and its Western sponsors should realize that their reckless steps are bringing the situation closer to the point where it will attain ‘critical mass’ and explode," the ministry said.
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youtube:
QuoteFrom an interview with an Abrams tank commander from Ukraine's 47th Mechanized Brigade.
(youtube link was here)
Regarding the recent report that Abrams were removed the battlefield. There have been a number of videos over the past few days showing Abrams in combat. 2/
The crew compliments the Abrams' accuracy, stabilization, thermal optics, and maneuverability. They also say the Abrams Reactive Armor Tile (ARAT) is effective, but they don't have reactive armor for the turret, which is the biggest shortcoming. They say the depleted uranium anti-tank rounds are effective, but they need more fragmentation rounds to perform other missions. The gunner and driver both said it was easy to learn how to operate. The driver says it would be effective in tank battles but that isn't the environment they are fighting in.
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A Ukrainian 2S7 Pion/PzH 2000 artillery unit confirms that they have received a new supply of shells, and are currently working towards delivering them onto Russian positions.
Ukraine is likely receiving ammunition from a number of sources at the moment, partially alleviating some of the shortages units like the 43rd Artillery Brigade were facing.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Sadly Drone vs Drone has equalized in Ukraine, Russians are at drone parity according to everything recent about it. This is where other systems come into play to give a opposing side more weight.