FancyCat
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Posts posted by FancyCat
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Karakurt-class can carry 4 Kalibr cruise missiles.
QuoteAn image has emerged reportedly showing a Ukrainian MGM-140 ATACMS tactical ballistic missile slamming into the Russian Karakurt-class corvette Tsiklon in Sevastopol, Russian-occupied Crimea, May 19th.
QuoteThe Tsiklon was likely sunk in the attack
BSF: SEVASTOPOL 0.5m 23 May 2024 + commentary on from 19 & 20 May which can't be shared publicly Clues point to a vessel being sunk off the frigate pier -Mast protruding from the water -Silhouette of a sunk vessel -Various vessels Dive | Sub Rescue | Rescue vessel
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Every MRAP in the U.S used by law enforcement should be forcibly requisitioned/recalled and sent to Ukraine.
Linked from tweet: https://t.me/ButusovPlus/10740
QuoteVideo of a Ukrainian MaxxPro MRAP surviving multiple UAV and mortar strikes in the Chasiv Yar area.
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While building for a long time, quick collapse by the U.S on weapons use to be fired onto Russian soil. I wanna note this is another instance of Russia escalating the conflict and as a result, allowing "red lines" to be broken by the West and Ukraine. Very stupid move by Russia. By threatening Kharkiv with occupation, no matter how unlikely, they have allowed Western weapons use in Russia to be expanded upon, even in this limited matter, the door opens for more.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/30/biden-ukraine-weapons-strike-russia-00160731
Quote"The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons" “'The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,' a U.S. official confirmed," @ErinBanco
QuoteThe immediate tangible effect is that Ukraine will be able to use HIMARS for targets across the border. Ukraine has been using Bohdana and other non-US supplied artillery to strike into Russia, but they often had to push those howitzers closer to the front line to hit deeper targets, placing them at greater risk. Now HIMARS can engage targets at greater depths.
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NYT article on the rapidly approaching decision point for U.S approving western weapons fired on Russian soil. Interesting justification for nuclear rhetoric being empty, Russia won't signal rising on the nuclear escalation ladder by attacking NATO directly to stop arms shipments. Terrifying idea but makes sense.
The attacks against radar sites is mentioned which I quoted, but no response on how Ukraine reacted. I do wonder if it's a trade off situation, Ukraine stops attacking early warning sites, if the U.S lets Ukraine defend Kharkiv.
I mean it is the 2nd largest city in Ukraine.
QuoteAmerican officials are increasingly dismissing such warnings as empty. Russia, they note, has never taken the risk of attacking the supply of weapons to Ukraine in Poland or elsewhere in NATO territory. President Vladimir V. Putin has done everything he could to avoid direct conflict with the Western alliance, even while showing off his nuclear capabilities or warning, as Mr. Peskov does regularly, that the West was risking turning a regional conflict into World War III.
But there remains considerable unease inside the Biden administration over the possibility of nuclear escalation. One senior administration official said that Washington had conveyed concern to Mr. Zelensky’s government about strikes against nuclear early-warning radar systems inside Russia in recent weeks. To conduct the attacks, the Ukrainians used locally produced drones and missiles. But American officials voiced concerns that Moscow could misperceive Western intentions, and told Ukraine they consider the maintenance of early-warning systems to be critical to nuclear stability.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/29/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-weapons.html
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Let us marvel again that should someone be told at the beginning of the war that Ukraine would have F-16s, 2!!! AWACS aircraft from NATO, they would be called crazy, insane, absurd, idiotic and yet today, rendered all the above, false.
Let us also marvel at the fact that the leadership shown by many of the NATO members truly is outstanding, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, the Baltics, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, absolutely fantastic, Romania, Bulgaria, Spain, Portugal, even Kosovo, I'm missing names but end of the day, the contributions to Ukraine, are wonderful, a clear sign of support for the alliance, and Ukraine's acceptance into it in the future.
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Blinken seems to signal an openness when asked if the US will allow Ukraine to use US-provided weapons to strike military targets inside Russia. He notes "at every step along the way, we've adapted and adjusted as necessary. And so that's exactly what we'll do going forward."
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So what states are left not supporting Western weapons being used on Russian soil? I think at this point its only Italy and the U.S against, and a whole lot of NATO states for it. While Germany is being cagey, still important shifts that can assist in Ukraine firing stuff into Russian lands.
QuoteImportant shift by Olaf Scholz: A person "familiar" with the German gov's position confirms to POLITICO's Berlin Playbook that the Chancellor did indeed mean with yesterday's remark that Ukraine could strike back with Western weapons on Russian soil.
2/ Scholz's spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit now on the record: Ukraine's "defensive action is not limited to one's own territory, but also includes the territory of the aggressor." "I had the impression that the Chancellor was not surprised by what Macron said."
3/ Journalists grilled Hebestreit whether and which German weapons could be used, but the Scholz spokesperson insisted: ""I can't tell you that because the agreement is confidential." He highlighted that weapons delivered by German have a lower range than arms by other countries
4/ It got a bit confusing: Confronted with a Scholz statement from May 2023 that German weapons would "only be used on Ukrainian territory," his spox said this was "a statement of facts" at that moment. He wouldn't say whether this had changed since (he claimed he didn't know).
5/ So what do the deliberately vague remarks by Scholz and his spox mean? The chancellor takes a page from Macron's "strategic ambiguity" playbook & leaves Putin guessing: German arms haven't been used against Russia so far, but this may be the case in the future. No more limits
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Not one but TWO rare Mi-24RKhR helicopters (originally an NBC recce variant of the Mi-24V) in one video! In the couple of years leading up to the full-scale invasion, no RKhR remained active with UkrAA @Chebik2
@Osinttechnical
Relatively low pass by a pair of Ukrainian Army Aviation Mi-24 Hind gunships just behind the front, Donetsk Oblast.
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Macron might have cornered Scholz admittedly.
Same press conference together,
QuoteUkraine should be allowed to "neutralize" Russian military bases from where Moscow is firing missiles, says France's President Emmanuel Macron.
QuoteAt a press conference, Chancellor Olaf Scholz states that Ukraine may very well defend itself on Russian territory. Although it is a “different question” what happens if this is being done with Western provided weapons (also with German ones), however, there are agreements that this must take place within the framework of international law. To me, it sounds like he is indicating that he would accept Ukraine striking on Russian soil with German-delivered weapon systems. Interesting statement. Up to now, Scholz has repeatedly emphasised that Ukraine may only defend itself on its own territory with the weapons supplied by Germany — most recently two days ago during a citizens' dialogue to mark 75 years of the Basic Law. Video credit:
@vonderburchard
/ I just reuploaded the video with enhanced audio.
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14 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:
F-16s are no more of a magic bullet than the M1s/Challies/Leo2s
Every person fighting counts, and Western equipment by all accounts ensure more people survive than ex-Soviet equipment. If it's a war of attrition, Ukraine cannot afford to lose its personnel.
Even if Tartus is not given, I think the allowance for the use of Western artillery in Russia would be useful.
QuoteScholz is not explicit in the way Macron is, but he, too, seems to endorse the use of Western weapons in Russia, emphasizing international law and Ukraine's need to defend itself.
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How legit is bild? German news. They have a article on Germany and U.S threatening Ukraine over the use of Western air defense but I don’t wanna post clickbait or false news.
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Russian-occupied Luhansk. Good god, this is a massive hit now.
Rumors have it that a Russian airfield was hit.
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lots of EU related defense news, one thing that is satisfying to see is the leadership of smaller EU countries is quite nice to see.
QuoteSpain is set to announce a new massive 1.13 billion Euro ($1.23 billion) military aid package for Ukraine. The package will include roughly 12 additional PATRIOT interceptors, 19 Leopard 2A4s, and a large number of additional systems procured from the Spanish defense industry.
Major items from the El Pais article: Most of the funding will go to Spanish companies to procure new equipment for Ukraine The Spanish weapons will include 155mm shells, anti drone systems, vehicles, surveillance and reconnaissance equipment, self propelled mortars, and more
QuoteTomorrow, several EU countries will hold a major summit on speeding up ammunition procurement for Ukraine in Prague. Danish PM Frederiksen, Czech PM Fiala, Polish president Duda, Latvian PM Siliņa, and Dutch PM Rutte will attend.
The group will talk on the Czech munitions initiative, the air defense of Ukraine, and defense-industrial cooperation in Europe.
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maybe we should move on,
QuoteFor the first time, French military instructors will train Ukrainian personnel in Ukraine under a new program, per commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi. The first French instructors will reportedly arrive in Ukraine soon.
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rumors of a drone being downed near the Voronezh-M in Orsk.
QuoteSupposedly, Ukraine tried to strike another Russian early warning Voronezh-type radar, this time in Orenburg. According to the map in the post, it covers territory to the South of the installation, no Ukrainian and very little of Russian land, so nothing that would be relevant in this war.
Today, local publications reported the downing of a drone near the village of Gorkovskoye in the Novoorsky district, not far from Orsk. Near this village is the Voronezh-M radar station, built in 2017.
That said, if the drone came from Ukraine, it had to travel more than 1,500 kilometers and in doing so either fly around part of northern Kazakhstan's territory or violate its airspace.
t. me/milinfolive/122969
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found it,
QuoteUkraine’s Baltic allies are its main backers for a shift in NATO’s position. “From the beginning we made the mistake of placing limits on the Ukrainians, because we thought it would be seen as an escalation [of the war],” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said on LRT television on May 21. “The Ukrainians must be able to strike on Russian territory, their logistical lines, and troops preparing to attack. There is only one side that is complying with the rules. These rules we imposed on ourselves; we have to abandon them.”
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If I'm not mistaken, we have U.S, Germany, Italy who do not approve using their weapons on Russian soil, U.K, Sweden, Finland, the Baltics? have approved their weapons to be used in Russia.
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Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson backs Ukraine’s use of Swedish munitions in Russia: "Ukraine has the right to defend itself through combat actions directed at the opponent's territory as long as the combat actions comply with the laws of war.“
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The Polish Foreign Minister was interviewed by the Guardian, interesting interview, European defense industry is still worried about long term spending, he does give tidbit of U.S response to Russian nuclear weapons use in Ukraine.
QuoteHe was sceptical about Russian threats to use nuclear weapons, saying: “The Americans have told the Russians that if you explode a nuke, even if it doesn’t kill anybody, we will hit all your targets [positions] in Ukraine with conventional weapons, we’ll destroy all of them. “I think that’s a credible threat. Also, the Chinese and the Indians have read Russia the riot act. And it’s no child’s play because if that taboo were also to be breached, like the taboo of not changing borders by force, China knows that Japan and Korea would go nuclear, and presumably they don’t want that.”
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Unsure if posted.
QuoteA Bradley appreciation video. The video shows a Bradley IFV from Ukraine's 47th Mechanized Brigade damaged by RPG and FPV strikes in the Soloviove area by Russia's 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade. A second Bradley evacuates the crew of the 1st Bradley, all of whom appeared to survive, while coming under artillery fire and withstanding a strike from an anti-tank weapon.
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Perhaps Putin just has an affinity for the FSB? Its interesting despite their failure in Ukraine, the rumored reshuffles never occurred accordingly for the FSB.
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17 hours ago, The_Capt said:
Stamp your feet and call the US and NATO “cowards” but there is an entire defence and security world out there that no one under the age of 40 really understands. It faded into the background over the last 30 years, to the point an entire generation of policy makers, diplomats and academics have grown up thinking that it was all over.
I was not aware all policymakers in Finland, Sweden, the Baltics, Poland etc were all under-40. Maybe you forgot they were part of NATO. Understandable. But maybe we should consider them when declaring Kiyv lost when we mull over the original Russian demand for calling off the 2022 invasion of Ukraine was the withdrawal of NATO forces behind the 1997 limits of NATO.
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16 hours ago, The_Capt said:
So we don’t care if the Russians are using them as dual use because…and try to follow me here…Ukraine is important, but it is not that important. They will likely let Kyiv fall first.
I understand that its not forgone that Ukraine should be reabsorbed into Russia, I mean certainly part of your lifetime included its independence occurring, but I think your understating the positions the West have staked out on Ukraine. The fall of Ukraine will strike absolute blows into NATO, the EU and the Western bloc. A lot of focus on Russia's internal dynamics in the event of their defeat, let me be clear, the fall of Ukraine is a defeat for the West. A lot of talk on poor Russia, not a lot of talk for the ramifications for the West for a nation that yearns for NATO membership, EU membership, and has shown itself to be capable of fightimg in a straight up full scale conflict with what is still considered one of the top dogs military-wise in the world to fall completely despite EU and NATO support.
A ton of ramifications including tons of internal dynamics between the bloc's eastern members and Western members. Macron's warnings about Russian forces approaching Kiyv and Odessa should be considered as they are, no less consideration of Putin's words. The words of our eastern partners like Finland, the Baltics, Poland are just as essential as those of France, Canada, Germany and the UK. So sure, maybe some policy makers might be okay with Kiyv falling but there are certainly policymakers in Poland, the Baltics, Finland and Sweden that would disagree and I would think it the height of folly for those to be disregarded anymore than disregarding Turkish policymakers or Russian policymakers especially when dealing with nuclear risks.
A lot of "Kiyv isn't important" coming from across the Atlantic while closer Lithuania is prepared to deploy their personnel to train in Ukraine. Considering the very obvious focus of Putin of dividing the NATO alliance, and the obvious risks of what could be considered Russian total victory, it probably should not be waved off the concerns of the Eastern bloc members. Especially when managing escalation and mistakes. Especially as Poland becomes probably the largest land based army in Europe. Especially as the incoming election heralds uncertainty to U.S commitment to NATO.
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This is quite possibly one of the most significant upgrades Ukrainian Fulcrums have received. SDBs are capable, plentiful, and more importantly, cheap. Flyaway cost for an SDB is $36,000. That’s less than a quarter of a GMLRS rocket, it’s roughly 10% of a M982 Excalibur.
Ukrainian fighters can now salvo off up to 8 SDBs at Russian targets from dozens of miles behind the front. As Russian long range air defenses continue to be attrited by ATACMS strikes, the ability to conduct the SDB attacks will only grow.
Ukrainian fighters can now salvo off up to 8 SDBs at Russian targets from dozens of miles behind the front. As Russian long range air defenses continue to be attrited by ATACMS strikes, the ability to conduct the SDB attacks will only grow.
I can't find the source but ground based solutions have been getting intercepted by Russia or taken down by EW but it's not affecting these air launched munitions. Places more emphasis on taking down the Russian radar network if air based solutions are required to effectively attack long range.
Found it!
Quote"One U.S. weapon used by aircraft, the GBU-39 small-diameter bomb, has proved resilient to jamming, according to the confidential documents. Nearly 90 percent of dropped bombs struck their target...But the modified...GLSDB, proved ineffective compared to those launched from airplanes, Ukrainian officials said."
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by FancyCat
interesting it was near Sumy. was under impression only nearby Kharkiv.
VoA interview with DoD on the parameters of the approval: A lot of wordplay ongoing.