billbindc

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Does anyone know where I could find a good analysis of the effective (emphasis on effective) strength Belarus would have to send to Ukraine?

As I noted earlier in this thread, analyses of the long war possibilities tend to be woefully lacking in taking into account the economic dimensions Russia is facing. It's partly understandable because Putin has been quite adept at maintaining and using frozen conflicts to pursue his agenda and observers are still somewhat mesmerized by the experience. This time, the pressures are going to be quite extraordinarily different I and personally doubt that Ukraine's ability to fight the war runs out before Moscow's does.

"Culmination"

Russia was never promised dick about NATO expansion. And everyone in the Kremlin knows it.

I love this summation and at the same time I'm embarrassed at how often I've had to give a similar one to people who should know better.

Curious if anyone's looking at or knows something about the reports of a Russian buildup northwest of Kyiv? Pretty obviously NATO is interested this morning:

Exactly. This isn’t a real offer, as the French Foreign Minister has been at pains to point out. It’s merely propaganda designed to let Russia claim it’s open to a deal but in reality it’s only open to getting for free what’s become to costly for it to take. Read properly, it tells us that at least publicly Russia is still in denial.

"Ukraine would have to undergo a disarmament process to ensure it wasn't a threat to Russia." This isn't happening...or at least not in any way that actual disarmament occurs.

A more nuanced take: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-17

I will always find myself completely unmoved by claims of Russian victory that completely ignore the economic damage that's been done already and the economic catastrophe that coming and how that will affect both Ukraine's calculations of resistance and Russian ability to maintain...or return to...any sort of forward momentum that can achieve their strategic aims. And just a thought...if a quick fait accomplis was the winning scenario here, I really can't imagine calling a costly slog that can't get past it's own initial logistical tail a win.

MacGregor is the sort who bangs on about "cosmopolitan elites". Ignore.

I'm wondering what it says about Russian logistics that these assets remained in such a vulnerable position for what looks like three separate attacks that knocked out up to 22 aircraft. Were they simply out of fuel?

Best estimates now 7000 Russian dead and 14000 to 21000 wounded (more likely the latter based on Steve's estimate of the situation): https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/16/us/politics/russia-troop-deaths.html

What would be the actual utility of dropping some tactical nukes on Ukraine? Yes, it would be frightful. Yes, it would hurt Ukraine. It would also likely result in a permanent trade embargo on Russia, the evaporation of any support from China and Russia reduced to some sort of juche style economy. It would also turn the war in Ukraine from a strategic blunder into a tragedy on the level of the Holodomor or the Holocaust. What does permanent pariah status and the united hatred of the world accomplish for Putin and/or Russia?

Those "100 UAVs" are Switchblades.

The effect of US intelligence revelations starting last summer should not be underestimated. They didn't just prepare the information battlefield for this war, they also created intense paranoia within the power vertical in the Kremlin. Putin was so worried about US intelligence penetration that he demanded all preparations be kept within a tight circle. That stunted the entire planning process.

USAF FORTE Global Hawk certainly taking a long look:

What do you all think would be the implications if Kherson was retaken?

Early claims of 30 helicopters taken out may turn out to be right if that's most of their aviation fuel going up.

The Occidental Observer is a purveyor of anti-Semitic and far right nationalist trash. No thanks.

g So I guess we have something like proof that Russian forces depend on the cellular network too.

Perhaps the best 'big picture' read I've found on where this is and where it's going: https://samf.substack.com/p/the-bankrupt-colonialist?utm_source=twitter&s=r

All of a piece with the Soviet Era. The ROC hierarchy was riven with informers, collaborators and outright KGB agents up to and including Patriarch Alexy II. Putin simply reactivated old links and turned the Church from a whipped cur into a regime guard dog.

Edward Snowden has posted exactly twice since 2/21. That isn't because Russian plans worked out.