I've been playing Combat Mission for about 25 years and I don't think anyone has any clue about this. You're best off, I think, to treat it as entirely random. Pick any action, all are just as likely to have the same result, or any other result for that matter. Go slow, go fast, back up, bail out, twist it all about. You'll bog or not entirely due to the whims of the bog god. And the bog god, may she smile upon you.
