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Machor

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Posts posted by Machor

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    The first open-source intel look into Ukraine being supplied with new TB2s: Canada is selling "30-40" Wescam sights for them.

    Canada stopped exporting Wescam sights to Turkey after the war in Karabagh; therefore, remaining TB2s already ordered by Ukraine were built with Turkish Aselsan sights, and it was my understanding that this would be the case with Polish TB2s as well. The new Wescam sights sold by Canada can only be for new Ukrainian TB2s:

    "Canadian drone cameras purchased for Ukraine but no word on shipments"

    https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/canadian-drone-cameras-purchased-for-ukraine-but-no-word-on-shipments

    "High-tech Canadian drone cameras have been acquired for Ukraine but the Canadian government is being tight-lipped about when that war-torn nation will receive the gear."

    "National Defence is financing the $50-million purchase of the Wescam surveillance cameras and is expected to be involved in shipping the equipment to a location in Europe."

    "Canada hopes to supply between 30 and 40 of the cameras built by L3 Harris Wescam, headquartered in Hamilton, Ont.

    Sources tell this newspaper the cameras have been purchased."

    "Last April, then Foreign Affairs Minister Marc Garneau put a halt to exports of the L3Harris Wescam cameras to Turkey for use in the Bayraktar TB2. The ban on exporting the sensors to Turkey came after the Canadian government determined the Bayraktar drones were used by Azeri forces fighting Armenia in the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. “This use was not consistent with Canadian foreign policy, nor end-use assurances given by Turkey,” Garneau stated."

    "The ban on exporting the cameras to Turkey will still remain in place."

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    22 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

    The stuff is a two-edged sword. It is like using a hand grenade during a domestic argument. You blow the house up and kill yourself as well. 

     

    22 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

    1.  Hitler was himself a victim of a gas attack, so unlike his other delusions he didn't have so many regarding their effects and limitations.

    2. Gas (delivered by shells) is generally understood to restrict battlefield mobility; i.e. slow down attacks.  It took Hitler until 1944 to really internalize Germany was on the defense and wasn't about to resume the offensive, which might have made gas weapons more tempting for him.

    3. By that time, the Allied bombing of the Reich was going on in earnest. The Allies had made it clear prewar that once the Germans began using gas, dropping it on war factories and their adjoining cities was fair game. So that wasn't going to trade off for him, even with V-bombs.

     

    21 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

    There is also ample documentation that German officers were very, very aware that they would be held to account after the war was over.  Since they knew the war wasn't likely to end well for their side, it is probable that there was no mindset within the military to use the weapons because a) they are ineffective, b) they likely cause panic/death among friendly, and c) there was concern about getting strung up by the neck after the war.

    Take this thinking and swap out "c" with c) NATO might get directly involved and that will produce a military defeat for sure, in which case they might get strung up by the neck by their own people long before the West could.

    Steve

    Thank you to all who devoted their time to answering my question about why Nazi Germany didn't use chemical weapons, but... I'm not sold. :)

    I'm generalizing the arguments as:

    1. Chemical weapons are not effective for tactical or operational use

    This leaves me scratching my head as to why Saddam and Assad Sr. went to such lengths and expenses to acquire them, and why Iraq widely used them on the front against Iran. I am genuinely curious.

    Given Hitler's preoccupation with Wunderwaffen, why would he ignore one that Germany was already ready to employ, nerve agents?

    2. The Allies would have retaliated by using their own chemical weapons strategically

    If the Allies had dropped mustard gas on German cities instead of firebombing them, and the Germans had switched the HE warheads on their V-1 and V-2 to nerve gas, who would have benefitted? e.g. Imagine you're dropping mustard gas on Hamburg, but then the Germans are lobbing one ton warheads of Sarin into London.

    3. Hitler's subordinates would have revolted (argued by Steve)

    I'll reframe this third point around the war in Ukraine to bring the discussion back on topic:

    How do we know Putin won't escalate, e.g. by using tactical nukes or striking inside Poland?

    I. Putin will realize it's a bad idea. ('Putin', here, stands for whoever is the decision maker; e.g. it could be Putin + Medvedev + Lavrov + Shoigu)

    II. Else, Putin's subordinates will realize it's a bad idea and get rid of him.

    The problem with this line of reasoning is that it should have prevented this war happening in the first place. If the internal workings of the Russian state failed to prevent the war from beginning, how can we count on them to prevent escalation?

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, dan/california said:

    "Make peace, you fools".

    Now, we do a remake where Hitler gets to have nukes...

    Serious question: Why didn't Nazi Germany use chemical weapons? I just read up on nerve agents in Wikipedia: Germany had a monopoly on these, and had produced up to 30000 tons of Tabun and 10 tons of Sarin.

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    8 hours ago, Kinophile said:

    May 9th will be Putin's open declaration of war, maybe 3ven v NATO, using the nostalgia and distorted narrative to justify mobilization and more overt aggression v. NATO.

    He wants War, to unify and solidify his regime. In for a penny, in for a pound.

    Scary as it is, there's expert opinion converging on this. If I had been in Putin's shoes on February 23, I simply wouldn't have launched an all-out war of aggression against Ukraine (I might have done other nasty things, like invade Donbas). If I were in Putin's shoes now, I would escalate to deescalate. Thoughtful thread by Mike Mazarr:

    Russian TV is already playing thermonuclear war (Let's see if anyone gets the reference.):

     

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    10 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

    Finland for example is still happy with the good old MTLB. And M113A2/3 is surely way superior to these old ****s.

    Food for thought:

    M113 ground pressure: 0.60 kg/cm2

    cf. T-34/76: 0.64 kg/cm2

    MTLB ground pressure: 0.46 kg/cm2 with standard track; 0.28 kg/cm2 with wide track

    cf. Maus 1-man KleinpanzerKampfwagen: 0.4 kg/cm2 - It was the only comparable WW2 vehicle I could find. :)

    https://tanks-encyclopedia.com/maus-1-man-kleinpanzerkampfwagen/

    Maus_1-man_KleinpanzerKampfwagen-1-e1620

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    7 hours ago, kraze said:

    Bayraktar needs some kind of an airfield to launch from.

    My first post in this thread was a speculation that the TB2 should be able to operate from the road network - this was tweeted, and later deleted, early in the war by Arda Mevlütoğlu. I followed this up with two posts later: The first was Russian troops discovering a cache of MAM-L missiles in a building that clearly did not look like an airbase. The second was a TB2 mobile control station driving around in Odesa. I think it is more likely than not that the TB2s are indeed operating from the road network.

    Some additions to The_Capt's reply:

    - The 4000 km range is for an endurance flight, so the operational range is shorter.

    - Turkey fields the TB2S ('S is for Steve' 🙂 ) with a satellite antenna that can be controlled through satellites - not sure if the vanilla TB2 can be rigged for this. Even if not, the 300 km range of the mobile station would be enough to strike Bryansk.

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    The employment of the UR-77 in urban combat appears to be becoming common, seen here in Rubizhne:

    Everything you ever wanted to know about the UR-77, with footage from its novel use in Syria:

    Reminds me of the 'Stuka-zu-Fuss', seen here in the Warsaw Uprising:

    German_rocket_fire_against_Polish_positi

    7 hours ago, panzermartin said:

    Not sure how this works clearing mines.

    In the broadest terms, from Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mine-clearing_line_charge) :

    "the basic design is for many explosive charges connected on a line to be projected onto the minefield. The charges explode, detonating any buried mines, thus clearing a path for infantry to cross. The system may either be human-portable or vehicle-mounted. The systems do not guarantee clearance of all types of mines."

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    19 hours ago, FancyCat said:

    I recall a long while ago a bunch of separatist commanders dying. How long before Igor gets the same treatment for being too outspoken?

    Earlier in the thread Steve observed that the very fact of Girkin being able to speak out without facing 'treatment' indicates the Kremlin fears Russian nationalists, and won't 'trick-or-treat' them.

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    10 hours ago, Haiduk said:

    Azov fighters brought some food to children, hiding in underground shelters of Azovstal. You can see systems of passages. Most of civilains say they came here as far as ater 20th of March, but some sit here from behinning of March. Kids say they want to see a sky and sun again - they didn't see it so far two months. 

     

    One thing that struck me as different from a typical 'propaganda photo-op' was the fighters wanted to film passing out sweets to children, but a lady intervened and asked them to give the sweets to her so that they could later be shared fairly, and the fighters complied - does not feel in line with Russia's narrative that the civilians are forced to stay there as human shields. [But then you could argue the lady's intervention was also staged to create a false impression. Or, as the Russian saying goes, 'Why go small?' - the whole thing could have been filmed in Hollywood. /S]

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

    almost no Bayraktars remain; the UA reserves them only for strategic missions like the one against Moskva

     

    2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

    I'm curious about this. Is UA getting fresh deliveries? Its a very effective platform but certainly vulnerable.

    I swear I read a tweet the Poles had allowed their TB2s in the assembly line to be fast-tracked for Ukraine, but I couldn't find it. The next best evidence I could find was this:

    Erm, it shouldn't take six months to assemble a TB2.

    Keep an eye on Antonov flights out of Çorlu in Turkey.

     

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