Homo_Ferricus
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Posts posted by Homo_Ferricus
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56 minutes ago, billbindc said:
I don't think describing an actual reality is 'getting too domestic'. Trump and his acolytes have made it clear that should he win, Ukraine...and indeed Taiwan...is on it's own and the pressure he is putting on Congress to stymie aid is proof of it.
If you want Ukraine to win, get out there and help make it happen.
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The Senate-passed Ukraine aid package has been put up for a discharge petition today.If it reaches 216 signatures, it can be brought to a vote even against the Speaker's opposition.== As of 12 March ==Total signatures: 169 (out of 216 needed)Needed signatures remaining: 47Democrat signatures: 169 (with 44 remaining).No Republicans have signed yet.We assess: Republican Reps are waiting to see how many Democrats sign before they make a decision.Current top priority: CALL YOUR REPRESENTATIVE!-- If they haven't signed yet - urge them to sign the discharge petition (H.Res. 1016) to bring Ukraine aid (bill H.R. 815) to a vote.-- If they've already signed on - ask them to reach out to their colleagues to encourage them to sign.You can check your Rep's status at: http://bit.ly/discharge815Now that the working day is over, we can start intensively circulating the shortlist of Democrats who have not yet signed the discharge petition.This graphic is based on the data at http://bit.ly/discharge815. Both that list and this graphic are by @community4Ukraine. #call4ukraineReposts welcome - no credit required.Community for Ukraine
Thanks, Bill. I appreciate the resources you provided, and the context for the discharge petition. Took a moment to track down my rep (who hasn't signed) and rattled the windows a bit.
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10 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
I don't see how the Krinky bridgehead is any advantage to Ukraine if it's only held and not used to go farther inland.
I think the importance of Krynky comes down to options spaces. Krynky is valuable to UKR because it creates options and undecides the defense of this flank for RU (in @The_Capt language), not necessarily because they have a grand plan of how they're going to exploit it. It's important to RU for the same reason. While the air and sea dimensions are still quite fluid, it seems like a lot of the aspects of the ground war have stabilized and been decided for the time being, with Krynky appearing to be an exception.
QuoteIt seems like it's not even a real bridgehead, but more of a contested area where both sides come and go, and nobody stays for very long since it's extremely exposed.
This rings true for me. A deathmatch arena for attrition as opposed to a jump-off point for larger operations. At least for now.
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4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
I really thought Ukraine could kill Russians fast enough to matter, but Russia's ability to get volunteers sufficient to avoid another conscription was a shock to me.
Having been born in Moscow and raised in the culture, this is where my message is coming from; we on this forum have been taking a very logical and almost mathematical approach to calculating Russia's damage and preconcluding it's fate. We need to understand that, while certainly not limitless nor supernatural, there is a certain character of stubborn will and seemingly senseless perseverance in the face of opposition that can be conjured in the collective "Russian" when the circumstances are right. We've talked about it here before. As the war has continued Putin and the state are doing a fair job of galvanizing the public to rally around their identity, but its not all "master strategist Putin" pulling the strings. Microeconomies are popping up, local Russians are manufacturing their own cheese to replace imports, companies are cleverly outmaneuvering sanctions, entrepreneurs are exploiting openings, industries are slowly, painfully adapting and gaining confidence. And as all that goes on the average Russian begins to settle into the "us against them" mentality of besiegement. Early in the war western media called this "Putin's war" and blamed the Russian government. Slowly the messaging has changed, and now we believe every Russian to be responsible for what is happening. While I agree that this is true in a spiritual and philosophical sense, it also drives Russians deeper inward, hardening their resolve and pushing people to close ranks. Unfortunately the more defensive ordinary Russians feel, the more difficult it will be for them to mentally separate the state from the greater identity.
Young people are not excluded from this phenomena, including the bright minds. I can imagine some of the brights coming back home to Russia after living in an undignified mode of "otherness" and "humiliation" in places like Georgia, Armenia, Germany, Turkey, Kazakhstan etc. Having heard the call to return to family and rodina, sprung by the excitement of building something new at home while affirming their identities and standing up with dignity against their opponents.
Your reply to my points on Russian economic recovery make sense, though it's worth pointing out that macroeconomics is one of the lesser precise "sciences". I leave room for fated chance, unintended consequences and human ingenuity to change what looks like a logical outcome to us at the moment.
Of course we've discussed Russia being a pressure cooker and how everything can come crashing quite dramatically, but that's not the feeling in the air that I'm catching at this moment. Excuse me for this post that was less factual and more like pseudo-shamanic reading of my own tea leaves.
Slava Ukraini
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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:
No, the Russian economy does not get away with this all scot free.
Of course it doesn't, and yes it will be painful for them. But not terminal and not in a way that precludes significant and destabilizing future Russian menacing of the west. There are plenty of painful economic changes we in the west endure yet somehow we often come out of it stronger. Let's not get sucked into "Russia sucks" beliefs about this. We hooted and scoffed about the ruble collapsing, crippling sanctions, unmaintained planes falling from the sky, freezing of finances and corporate pullouts. And here they are, adapting as hardy humans do.
QuoteIt is going to cost Russia billions, maybe hundreds of billions to rebuild military power after this war.
Sure, but they will have the means--they will feel the brain drain and economic difficulties sure, but Russia is populous, resource-rich and has a heavier war industry than most other countries, and has a heavyweight financial sponsor to its east. Say what you will about demographic decline and economic projections; all I said is still true. We all know how anxious the current Ru military leadership is to squander opportunities, but for a country like this on paper, having been evacuated of their old tanks and legacy military equipment is practically an invitation to rebuild according to the new ways of war. The impact of losing 3000 tanks becomes almost a blessing than a curse. Very possible we see some shuffling of leadership to enable such rebuilding in the next 10 years, depending on how things go politically.
QuoteOk, how? How is it a “major strategic victory”? How is Russia’s position better than it was before this war if that is all they gained? Is it decisive? Does it create strategic options we cannot counter?
I don't think history will remember the catastrophic losses and the dead peasants so much as It will remember that Putin looked on a map and said, "That's mine now." And so it was. It's a symbolic victory and a (im)moral victory of strategic significance. Despite the answers to your questions about whatever practical advantages Russia has won and at which cost, I believe the optics of history will above all capture the image of Russia taking what it wants. A strategic corridor no less.
QuoteStrategic would be half of Ukraine under Russian control and the other half held by a Vichy-esque puppet. While NATO starts falling apart.
That would be a Total Victory, not just a strategic one. As when Hitler conquered France.
1 hour ago, The_Capt said:We got Finland and Sweden. We got political Will for a decade. We will get the rest of Ukraine. Russia got a corridor of land which will secure Crimea better but it cost them far more than that was worth.
That corridor is an arbitrary metric. Right next to “all of Crimea” and “every inch of pre-2014”. They have sentimental value but in the hard calculations of geopolitics and military gains they do not mean as much as people think. The West is not going to fall because this war got stuck where it is. Ukraine is not going to slide back into Russian control. Hell Russia doesn’t have the forces to exploit that corridor for a long while yet. And by the time they do I am sure it will be mined and defended to the hilt.
In war there is what you must do. Want to do. And hope to do. The trick is really understanding which is which.
I do not have your experience, education or analytical skill. I love reading your posts and thank you for them. This post is a manifestation of my deep wariness of those that keep increasing the tint of their rosy glasses (not saying you are). Hubris comes before the fall and our societies have become fat with it. I can only trust that our institutions are still staffed by talented and committed individuals like yourself, and are refreshing themselves adequately as times change and entropy takes its toll.
I wouldn't say I'm pessimistic, I'd say I'm advocating for sober and serious preparation.
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Timing of this left bank raid is definitely interesting. I'm thinking the purpose may be to draw Russian reinforcements/redeployments to the Kherson region, which can be clobbered with their shiny new ATACMS cluster missiles as they redeploy along the old familiar paths (which are now in range).
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2 hours ago, poesel said:
Could be something, could be nothing...
That's interesting, the President typically flies in one of these...
edit: flight landed about 4 hours ago. I'm intrigued.
edit2: This is apparently a flight picking up Russian diplomats in DC "Who are due to return after a 3-year stay."
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18 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:
Zero evidence of even one KA-52 going down during these recent southern operations.
Of all the things being caught on video in this war, I would imagine catching a helicopter playing peek-a-boo 10km away would be one of the more difficult ones to film, for the reasons stated in the last page or two.
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1 hour ago, Haiduk said:
Likely UKR UAV filming of Russian tank with "bbq on top" got HEAT in turret and exploded through some time in Novodarivka village (6 km SW from location of Russian video near Rivnopil')
Are all the tanks in this video Russian? If this is a UKR drone ostensibly filming from the direction UKR is advancing from, it appears that some of the tanks in the foreground are UKR tanks on the advance?
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54 minutes ago, billbindc said:
It really starts to look like the Stalinist way of doing things. Missiles don't work? Don't blame the system, blame whoever is close to the project. Recruitment lagging? Don't blame the system, blame a couple of handy recruiting officers. Can't take Bakhmut? Don't blame the system, blame.....
Surely Prigozhin can see what's coming. That's what all of the drama about the flanks is about.
Just want to reiterate the end of the article everyone's referring to for clarity, since a few forumgoers are writing as if these three were arrested after yesterday's strikes...
QuoteThe arrest of Shiplyuk, director of the institute's Siberian branch, was reported by Russian state media last August, and Maslov, its chief researcher, last July.
An investigative source told TASS that Maslov was suspected of revealing state secrets on missile technology.
Monday's letter is the first time the arrest of Zvegintsev, who is described as an expert of aerodynamics, has been made public.
edited to add bold.
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34 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:
https://m.jpost.com/international/article-734917/amp
Biggest head to fall in Moscow so far.
Zolotov is long time Putin most inner circle guy. Trusted guy with long long history.
He is not powerful himself like Shoigu but Putins lapdog.
Did you read that article? There's nothing going on with Zolotov. He's the one who relieved Major General Vadim Dragomiretsky, who is some guy in the central district whom Zolotov relieved after Dragomiretsky was accused of taking bribes.
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6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Interviews conducted at the end of September in Moscow. I cued the video to the end for this:
This guy's clips are spread throughout the whole video. He says that there are almost no Ukrainian soldiers, but instead they are Poles and others hired by the Americans to destroy Russia. In the end the interviewer asked what would have happened if Russia had left Ukraine alone and his answer was that NATO would be "closer" and that would threaten Russia. So obviously Russia had to act. But then, Russia has nukes, so would they really have attacked? With each of these questions it is clear he's finding it harder and harder to come up with the "correct" answer. At the end, when asked how would Ukraine have attacked Russia since Russia has nukes he just gives up and says "I don't know".
This is, IMHO, a good encapsulation of every argument I've seen and personally had with Russian nationalists and apologists since... cripes... the days of USENET. They are quick to describe all the threats NATO poses to Russia, but can't seem to figure out why they would be fools enough to attack a nuclear power. And with that, all the blather that came before it is shown to be hollow. And yet they still keep it up after all these decades.
Steve
I'll play devil's advocate.
Clearly this random pedestrian in Moscow puts up a pathetic argument... but you can't just say, "We have nukes, the hell do we care what they do?" If Mexico became devoutly pro-Russian and anti-US overtly in their policy and government, I believe the US would in fact (ultimately) interfere with direct action in order to prevent or reverse that course from occurring or continuing. But we have nukes--why do we care or feel threatened by Mexico? Well, international relations is a lot more complicated than, "are we afraid of being invaded" as it turns out.
Not to revive the ancient conversation of capability=threat, distance to Moscow and Russia traditionally relying on depth for it's strategic defense, etc.
EDIT: also wanted to mention 1420 is a great channel for westerners that want to see a sample of what actual everyday Russians feel and think. The subtitles aren't always precise and I highly recommend paying attention to body language and the way words are spoken, not just the written text. Russian sarcasm runs deep.
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If anyone wants to PVP this, I'll gladly roleplay the incompetent Russian officer. I will get drunk before playing every turn, and will have no regard for my pixeltruppen whatsoever, while keeping in line with observed Russian practices in May.
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1 hour ago, JonS said:
I think, given the contradictory information available, that the obvious and only answer is that the Ukrainians inadvertently targeted an FSB false-flag operation that was pre-chambered with highly volatile dog-propellant. They - the Ukrainians that is - used a hrim smuggled into and launched the Kuban on a life raft recovered from the Moskva. This liferaft later accidentally broke free and drifted under the bridge in the high winds just before impact, almost ruining the operation.
The FSB, meanwhile, were intending to use their truck bomb IED to help dig an anti tank ditch, oriented south, across the neck of the Crimean peninsula to prevent weak willed holiday makers cutting short their summer holiday, thus depriving the FSB of kickbacks from local businesses where the tourists should be spending their assignats. This explains why the Russians were able to so quickly identify it as a truck bomb - it was *their* truck bomb.
The combination of the hrim hitting the top of the truck bomb explains the large yet weird explosion and damage patterns.
Both sides are obviously still a bit confused about this inadvertent confluence of two otherwise completely separate operations.
And with that the mystery is solved. Handshakes and back-pats all around, well done everyone. Case closed.
Further analysis no longer required
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Do we know if NASAMS is up and running yet?
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38 minutes ago, Offshoot said:
Purportedly a Ukrainian advance using HMMWVs in the Kherson region demonstrating a "dagger" attack. They are certainly using live ammo.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xwowrw/breakthrough_of_the_front_in_the_kherson_region_a/
I guess the gunner is foreign legion/westerner because the occupants in the humvee are shouting at him to fire more, seems like at least one tries to communicate that in English.
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51 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:
Pulls out conclusion out of his hat based on very little. Example in the spring concluded that Germany and France are going to let up on their support based on body language in a photoshoot. And oh god the economic analysis. If he is right the western economy will fail and the main economic models don't work.
Especially in his strategic level commentary, but also in tactical level he makes a lot of baseless conclusions. Resent example concluding Harkiv attack run out of steam weeks ago and Kherson op failed already many many times.
He shows the front rumors well, but any analysis or future predictions are just wild, and made with such confidence.
Also again the world economic predictions. Oh, god
I agree that he has a bit of "sky is falling" catastrophism at times, though I haven't heard any economic speculations that were totally baseless, yet. Admittedly I don't always listen to his "strategic analysis" and sometimes go straight to the rundown at the front.
I do think his more pessimistic viewpoint can be a decent counterbalance for some of the overconfidence and rah-rah we're winning perspectives. If only to highlight some areas of trouble that perhaps aren't being discussed in the super-optimistic sources.
Regarding Kharkiv running out of steam--I hadn't heard him discuss things that way; he seemed to take the more "operational pause" angle if I'm not mistaken. And just last night he stated what I heard him say many times--that Kherson was doomed to fall and it was a matter of time. I don't think he's ever said that the op has failed, perhaps that certain advances stalled (which they had).
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59 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:
"The War in Ukraine YouTube channel" is totally useless.
I don't want to get too wound up so I will not get in to it more...
I rely on that channel quite a bit for updates, so curious to hear your grievance with it if only for a few sentences.
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46 minutes ago, billbindc said:
I was going to respond but then realized I disagree with every second or third sentence. Is "George Friedman" one of those AI writing programs?
Friedman wrote a book in 2009, "The Next 100 Years" where he in fact predicted that the Russian Federation would fracture and fall apart in the 2020's, 30's and 40's. Seems pretty likely right now that he nailed that analysis. Granted, there's plenty he said that hasn't manifested so far either. He didn't seem to be particularly concerned about China's rise in his book, and yet here we are with their military spending coming to par with the US.
I don't think he has any particular skill in military matters.
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1 minute ago, sburke said:
Regarding these Russian troops deploying in Moscow. just to make sure I don't go too whacko - this isn't related at all to Moscow day events is it? This really is deploying of troops unexpectedly?
Next question... who is commanding these troops? Putin or someone else? Guess we'll know later today.
I had the same thought, though the guy recording the video of the trucks in the recently posted video said something along the lines of, "Never have I seen something like this before." And I imagine this guy has been around for previous Moscow Days.
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Interesting that Russia is counting on General Winter to save the day, even in an offensive expeditionary campaign like this one.
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33 minutes ago, OldSarge said:
As they should. For the most part the UA has maintained relatively excellent OPSEC throughout this SMO
In some sense they have. In another sense, any Ukrainian will tell you that government agencies as well as the military are fairly liberally sprinkled with RU informants and collaborators. Though something like this may well have been heavily compartmentalized.
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57 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
...HIRMAS...
Steve
You, sir, are either taking the piss. Or you are badly in need of sleep.
edit: and I'm beginning to drink a bit too much.
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Anybody else playing the drinking game, "Have a drink every time Steve misspells the name of a weapons system"?
I may need to go to the hospital soon
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Been hungry for a debrief of the initial airborne ops around Hostomel. "War in Ukraine" YT channel did one a couple weeks ago that I just found. A bit clumsy as far as debriefs go, but some interesting stuff in there that I wasn't aware of:
- Majority of the troops that landed in the helis were actually 45th Spetsnaz Brigade, not actual VDV, though there were numbers of VDV volunteers in the grouping. (According to Haiduk below 45th SB is actually under VDV Command)
- Of 2 or 3 helis that were shot down in the initial assault, one of them contained the commander of the grouping which significantly contributed to their post-landing paralysis.
- There actually WAS a landing at Vasylkiv that was rather successful from the start (I recall lots of rumors and conflicting info about Vasylkiv in those first days as things were happening). Though that grouping of ~200 Russians were eventually surrounded and neutralized by the 72nd Brigade that was brought up from the south.
- No mention of the Ukrainians retaking the airfield overnight...
- The planned IL-76 landings at Hostomel and Vasylkiv were cancelled since they weren't secure. Not clear if those planes ever took off, but pretty much 100% that no IL-76 were shot down at this point.
- Pardon me if this is old news to the forum at large....
We still don't know much about the author(s) of this channel--clearly it's someone who is from the region (probably Ukrainian?) who is knowledgeable in military, political, economic affairs. He often presents and pushes information that is contrary to a lot of what is said both in the mainstream AND on this forum. Often taking a more pessimistic position that things in Ukraine are worse than many portray (state of economy, competence of military leadership, logistical capacities, etc.)
Curious how some of our more hardcore observers/contributors here feel about his data and opinions.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
As someone who has written, recorded and mixed music--Yes this is possible, particularly when inspired or driven to write and record. Mixing and mastering in particular (which used to be painstaking, depending on the level of quality you're looking for) are easier than ever with AI and algorithmic tools.
Yes I agree, you are writing like a mad conspiracy theorist.