Taranis

"Ukrainian soldiers carry a coffin during a funeral ceremony for their brothers in arms, killed in a fight against Russian troops, in kyiv, Ukraine, August 5, 2022. STRINGER / REUTERS"

Maybe another sign that something is about to happen (troops concentrations etc): "Curfew declared in Mykolaiv for this weekend" "Curfew until Monday morning in Mykolaiv The governor of the Mykolaiv region in southern Ukraine, which is constantly bombed, announced a curfew in the regional capital on Friday until Monday morning in order to neutralize the "collaborators" of the Russians. Vitali Kim had already promised in July a reward of one hundred dollars for information allowing the identification of people who “reveal to the occupiers the places of deployment of Ukrainian troops” or who help them to establish the coordinates of potential targets of bombardments. “Honest people have nothing to fear. Have your papers with you just in case. You can walk your dog not far from your house, the children can play in the courtyard of their building, but try to stay at home, ”he warned. Mykolaiv saw heavy shelling last week, possibly "the strongest" since the start of the Russian invasion, according to the city's mayor, Oleksandr Senkevich." Source : Le Monde

"A Ukrainian soldier launches a Polish reconnaissance drone in the kyiv region, August 2, 2022. EFREM LUKATSKY / AP"

Interesting. We all agree that this is what we would like to see and all with a UKR success. Just by curiosity. According to you, what were you waiting for? A grand style offensive with a massive preliminary barrage on the front line, then a concentration of brigades to obtain a break in the line and then an exploitation? Or a continuation of the bombardments on the backs and as soon as a breach is carried out by regular units, a fresh brigade comes to exploit?

"Ukrainian MLRS “Verba” fires towards Russian positions on the front line in the Kharkiv region, Ukraine, Tuesday, August 2, 2022. EVGENIY MALOLETKA / AP" * A mix of KrAZ-6322 and BM-21 Grad

French 120mm RTF-1 mortars use PR-14 shells (more commonly known as OE-120-F1 in the French army). They have the characteristic of having a detachable tubular tailboom at the rear when the shell leaves the mortar. I don't know though if the Russians can have the ability to shoot them. I still have a doubt because the shell is pre-rifled and the Russian mortar would therefore have to have exactly the same mortar rifling.

All the ingredients for a long war are there. Just by talking about the artillery towards Prisky as with GrigB earlier, we would think we were during the First World War. Almost everything is fixed, more or less mobile and we return to a war of position where each side is unable to break the impasse. Personally, I think that unless there is a Russian collapse for political or other reasons, the conflict is likely to last for several years.

Yes, of course there are all those old AMX-30s, AUF-1s, AMX-10Ps, but maybe they're not in good enough condition or they just want to keep them just in case. I do not know. It was just a guess. I feel like you this impression that we are not doing enough to help them...

Finland seized military equipment at Russian border "Finnish customs have announced the seizure, at the border with Russia, of goods that could strengthen Moscow's "industrial and military capacities" and others subject to international sanctions: various luxury goods hit by European sanctions as well as that goods that may have military use, "such as tools used in maritime traffic" have been detected, said the customs authority. “There are also drones as well as objects that we cannot comment on at the moment,” customs enforcement director Mikko Grönberg told Agence France-Presse. The seizures come as Finland mulls possible Russian visa restrictions, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine and ensuing Western sanctions. More than 2,500 checks were carried out between July 22 and 27 and nearly a hundred similar cases arose, of which about twenty are "under preliminary examinations", the customs administration said in a press release. ." Source : Le Monde

I guess every country is more or less worried about the future turn of things and realizes that our armies are not ready for what is happening and what might happen. Given that most Western countries are in the process of massive rearming, giving up equipment that is already quite rare for them is perhaps a problem because it would weaken the units. I take the example of the CAESARs (pure random example... ), France has about 75 of them at the base and gave up about 18 of them, which is still 1/4 of our guns. Which is still significant. From memory, we will not redistribute our initial quantity before 2023 or 2024. So in other words, increasing the size of our fleet is not for now

I agree with you regarding the quality of Russian counter-battery. For me, they are generally known (including in other subjects) to have a reactivity, shall we say, less than that of NATO. I feel really concerned by these helpless Ukrainian losses in the face of Russian artillery and it is also my Western military vision that leads me to tell myself that everything must be done to put the crew in danger to a minimum. I'm skeptical about the ability of a VAB HMG to be able to shoot down a drone quite easily. However, I suppose you imagined this one also equipped with a MANPAD as for the batteries of HIMARS. Like Steve, I imagine more of a priority from an operational point of view the importance of the 155mm on the ammunition depots to silence these Russian guns. In any case, we all agree that it is urgent for Ukraine to receive new guns and whatever, there is a way he can help.

"A Ukrainian soldier sits in a car at a gas station in the eastern Ukrainian city of Sloviansk on August 2, 2022 BULENT KILIC / AFP" * A salute for russian UAVs ? . note the image on the lower left corner of the windshield (the same as the one on my profile: Snake Island)

I don't know if that would really work. Perhaps on a large scale. The advantage is that Ukraine already has VABs. The problem for a towed mortar like the 120mm RTF-1 is that you have to set-up and perform the orientation phase (where the mortar is relative to north) before you can fire. Without counting that it is still necessary to carry out the spotting phase on the target (FOO and adjustment of the shots). It is a type of artillery which has the advantage of being rustic so easy and fast to put in place but which precisely has the fault of being rustic (more time consumer and less precise). Throughout this period the crew and mortars are exposed to Russian attacks and their artillery. Mortars with a relatively short range are really vulnerable in particular due to the increasingly pronounced spotting by Russian drones. These dangers of counter battery (etc) are on the contrary erased with the CAESAR but this one will always be available only in too small number (approximately 75 in France). To conclude, IMHO, I think the M113 as an SP Mortar would be better suited in this role as it would be way too risky for a towed mortar. I think that the counter battery in this type of use will probably be inevitable and that it is therefore better to have equipment that resists (moderately at least, for lack of anything better) to the latter. And then the SP mortars also gain the advantage of gun placement time and dismantling time, all without endangering the crew, saving them from disembarking

I agree with you. Especially since the M106 and M125 are available in large numbers and many NATO countries have them. There will be a country willing to give some quickly. Could be quick to deliver (by train I guess). In France, there is no equivalent unfortunately because the mortars (120mm) are towed by armored vehicles (VAB). Some prototypes of 120mm mortars directly mounted on VABs existed but this remained at the prototype stage because the chassis does not resist (sdkfz 251/22 is that you ? ). One of the doctrines is the RAIDART (Artillery Raid) using helicopters (in sling or mortar dismounted in the helicopter) to carry out shootings and rapid movements. The problem here will be the particularly significant vulnerability of helicopters.

"Ukrainian servicemen fire a BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system at a frontline in the Kharkiv region, August 2, 2022. REUTERS"

"On Friday, the explosion of a hangar housing Ukrainian soldiers prisoners in Olenivka, in Russian-occupied territory in the Donetsk region, left 50 dead and 73 seriously injured. A "deliberate Russian war crime", according to Mr. Zelensky. The International Committee of the Red Cross said on Sunday it had still not received official permission from Moscow to visit the scene." Souce : Le Monde

Gazprom announces to stop deliveries to Latvia The Russian gas company announced in a statement posted on Telegram on Saturday that it had suspended its gas deliveries to Latvia "due to the violation of the gas offtake conditions", without further details. A spokesman for Latvian energy company Latvijas Gaze, however, said on Friday that Latvijas Gaze buys gas from Russia but not Gazprom, declining to name its supplier in the name of business secrecy. In addition to Latvia, several other European countries have been deprived of Russian gas from Gazprom in recent months: Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, Denmark and the Netherlands. Source : Le Monde

"Photojournalist Evgeniy Maloletka flees from a field inflamed by a Russian army bombardment, in the Kharkiv region, July 29, 2022. MSTYSLAV CHERNOV / AP"

And "coincidentally" the dead are Azov fighters that Russia wanted to get rid of. Russia couldn't kill them openly in front of the media but neither could Putin release them for the Russian public opinion....

"Interception of call by Security Service of Ukraine suggest that camp with Ukrainian POWs was blown up from inside"

They must have also been advised by the French Army on how to use them because the two infantrymen on the rear open hatches were standard employment in Afghanistan. They are there to do close defense and observation (rear, proximity etc)

Donetsk area : "Russian troops resumed assault on Avdiivka and Pisky with tanks, howitzers and MLRS. Russian soldiers using Ukrainian uniform"

"Daria Steniukova, 31, yoga coach poses for a photo during the wedding photo session in her bombed-out apartment in Vinnytsya, July 16, 2022. OLEKSANDR DEMIANIV / AFP" "Ukrainian soldier Vitaliy (R), 25, kisses his wife Anastasia, outside one of the city's registry offices, just after the wedding ceremony, in kyiv, July 23, 2022. SERGEI SUPINSKY / AFP" In their region of Poltava in east-central Ukraine, there were 1,600 marriages in the first six weeks after the invasion, compared to 1,300 for the whole of 2020. In kyiv, the rise is even more pronounced with 9,120 marriages recorded in five months, more than eight times more than the 1,110 ceremonies that took place during the same period in 2021.

Kherson area : "The Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed Russian ammunition warehouses in Chornobayivka and Bilohirka, - South Operative Command"