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black_prince

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Posts posted by black_prince

  1. I can't really understand why hide should work well with target arc. Hide is basically the 'face in the dirt doing your best to be invisible' command and target arc is the 'watch this specific area, slightly better situational awareness, engage only what comes into your arc' command. If people are having problems with their ambushes it's probably because the terrain isn't suitable; they've got unrealistic expectations of how close the enemy can get without their own guys getting spotted or just dumb luck.

  2. Just tried this scenario myself from the Syrian side. First attempt didn't go so well as I overestimated my AT-4 operators ability to hit the rapidly moving bradleys. 2nd attempt resulted in the US surrendering. Once the bradley's were dealt with I wasn't shy about using my remaining ATGMs against the enemy infantry. I don't think this is particularly gamey as in real life the atgm teams would have been able to withdraw in the face of advancing foot sloggers and if withdrawal wasn't an option (as in the game) then I doubt they would have hesitated to use their missiles in this manner.

  3. 2nd video: that tank crew is ridicolusly unprofessional: scores a hit and immideatly jumps out of the tank, throwing their hands in the air and cheering .

    Pretty much my reaction when I destroy enemy armour in CM!

    LLF: I take your point, the war in Syria is a very different situation to the one in Libya with a great many more complicating domestic and international factors. True, there is very little sign of direct foreign military intervention at this time. However, it is still a possibility that Assad must guard against.

    Regardless, I didn't mean to imply that the SAA would be left in tatters as the result of some foreign military intervention. The brutal and unrelenting war of attrition in which they are involved will probably be sufficient to achieve that given enough time. I remain convinced that by the time Assad and co decide to head to the sea side, the war will already have been lost and they won't be able to hold out in Latakia and Tartus for long. Moreover, I''m very skeptical that an orderly withdrawal will be possible. AFAIK, a withdrawal is one of the riskier, more difficult types of operation. The SAA still has forces scattered about all over the place. Any large scale withdrawal would only be further complicated by a simultaneous exodus of Alawite civilians. It would also probably mean abandoning much of the air force as I doubt that those two provinces have the infrastructure to support it. Moving ballistic missiles and chemical weapons could also provoke an Israeli airstrike.

    In summary, I still think that a withdrawal to a coastal enclave is probably a strategy so risky that by the time it is implemented, it will be too late for it to be successful.

  4. In my oppinion we are not likely to see Syria split into two countries. The current behaviour of the regime would indicate that they are playing an all or nothing game. Erwin talked about the regime's determination to deny the rebels any cities. I believe that the regime is concerned that the loss of a major city in its entirety to the rebels would result in increased international recognition for the opposition. Were Aleppo to fall to the rebels for example, it is likely that it would become a seat of governance for the opposition and a kind of rival capital city just as Benghazi did in Libya. This could result in more countries recognising the opposition as the legitimate government, potentially removing any legal barriers to direct military intervention by foreign powers at their behest.

    As Assad's regime increasingly loses controll, it may well decamp to the coast, just as Ghadaffi fled to his stronghold of Sirte. However, I think this would only be done as an act of desperation. By the time that occurs, the Syrian Army will likely have been left in tatters. The Syrian Air Force would be forced to leave whatever bases they still retain at that time behind. Huge stock piles of equipment and ammunition would be left in the hands of the rebels (it is unlikely that the SAA would be able to transport or destroy a significant amount of materiel, even if they have already begun doing so, especially when the logistical problems which they are already facing are considered. I doubt that a coastal 'rump' Syria would be able to hold out in the long term. From what I've read, the rebels have already infiltrated beyond the mountain ranges into Latakia and Tartus.

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