poesel

Thanks for that. I wasn't aware of the size of an attack on Taiwan. I thought it would mainly be a fight for the Taiwan strait. If China had won that (long enough) it could pour enough resources into Taiwan to end this quickly. If China were denied (or cut early enough) this path, then that would be the end of this war. Let's hope that Russia breaks up early enough and China will be busy with populating Siberia.

A question about the argument: sending arms to Ukraine diminishes the ability of the US to fight China in Taiwan. Given that a fight for Taiwan would mostly be a Navy & Air force thing (for the US) and the stuff sent to Ukraine is mostly for Army use - how is the above an argument? (that is really a question, not a backhand argument in itself ).

It didn't take 8 years. It took three days in Feb '22. In the 8 years before, nobody relevant thought one tiny bit about it (at least in Germany, and that includes myself ).

You can edit your posts. Just click on the 3 dots in the top right. There might be a time limit, however.

That is one clever design. The boxes are just chipboard cut with a laser cutter. The grenade shells are 3D printed. I guess 3 parts. An eye bolt for connecting it to a drone and I guess a safety pin. The innards are a guess, but probably just a simple fuze, explosives and metallic objects to create shrapnel (the casing won't provide any). Given the fuze and explosives you need less than $3000 of machinery to set up a production line in your cellar.

I have a good friend in the UK who is a brexiteer. I've discussed with him for a while and then dropped it. He is feeling that the Brexit was the right thing, and no fact would (or will) change that. That is his opinion, and he has a right to it. Going by one's feelings is not a bad thing, and to be honest, most (or all) of us do it all the time. Just think about how you chose your car or phone or football team. Problem is, that feelings can be influenced quite easily, while with facts this is much harder. Aaaand Steve already said it much better Not going to argue that, but post WWI Germany wasn't that bad. Without the global recession in 1929 there probably wouldn't have been WWII (at least not the one we know and love ).

Ach - my try at irony has failed... In other news: Germany will up its budget for foreign military aid (»Ertüchtigung von Partnerstaaten im Bereich Sicherheit, Verteidigung und Stabilisierung«) from 2,2b€ last year to 5,4b€ this year. Another 8,8b€ are earmarked for the following years. This money will be used for Ukraine and mainly to supply them with ammunition and parts for already delivered systems. That is about 10% of our military budget. Those expenses have broad support in parliament (everyone except the extreme left & right, which together have 15% of the seats).

I have to say that I'm a bit disappointed by this thread, and by thread I mean YOU. I learned about this on a main media website first, then on the fricking TV and only after that, here. In the days of yore, I would have read about the delivery date here a week ago.

I'm pretty sure that thing will end up as a CM scenario or even a small campaign.

I was also wondering what happened to this anti-javelin cooking grates they had on their tanks a year ago. Didn't do much against the javelin, but would probably work against a free-falling grenade. That is very interesting. The ICC indictment seems to (finally) hit a nerve with the higher ups in Moscow, which the actual war didn't. If the ICC would even hint at continuing this from the top down, I guess we would see some more defenestrations in that sector. Hopefully from the top window. Not very surprising, but these hypocrites only got worried when the war affects themselves. I guess they thought they could sit it out and, in a few years when everything has cooled down, dig up their foreign assets, and live a happy live somewhere under the sun. Assholes.

Even longer article (of course in German, though this time Swiss) about a guy from Poland delivering supplies to the front. Very interesting. If you don't read it all (and you won't), read at least chapter one about a Ukrainian officer talking about Donbass. Spoiler: he could live without it https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/ukraine-krieg-szczepan-twardoch-bringt-hilfsgueter-an-die-front-ld.1730385

Good and long (!) article in German about the situation of mobiks during their 'training' in Russia. I expected something like this, but to read in detail why these guys are so ****ed up in every possible meaning of the word removes any doubt. https://www.dekoder.org/de/article/ukraine-krieg-mobilisierung-alkoholismus

Helmut Schmidt was defense minister from '69-'72 and then chancellor from '74-'82 - AFAIK the only one. Strauss tried...

Just for the record: that is a fake (and a year old, btw)

With that game, the correct way to phrase it is: 'my daughter and her 2 former friends...'

FWIW the news about the NS explosions didn't make a big splash here in Germany. It was reported and clearly stated that we still don't know who was behind it. Even the rainbow press refrained from finger pointing. That is all.

Japan and Kamchatka is an angle I hadn't thought of. But that would collide with China's interest in having unrestricted access to the Pacific. China could occupy or vassalize Siberia. Occupying it would put China in the club of Arctic Sea neighbors, which might create opposition from the other club members. No matter in which way China controls Siberia, it would have the same problem as Russia: how to get the resources south. But then China is good at long term planning, so they may have the patience to build a pipeline. And they could do another thing: there is only one railway north that ends in Yakutsk. If that were to be extended to the arctic sea, China could finally have a port with unrestricted access to the Atlantic. By the time this is finished, the Arctic Sea would be ice free most of the time. I'm not sure how much all of that is an incentive for China not to support Russia too hard.

What is China's plan if the Russian Federation disintegrates?

Going back to the beginning of this argument: you can do everything in a corrupt system, but to deprive the boss from being corrupt. Without the nukes, this conflict and regime would be over quite fast (and I don't think we have an argument that the US wouldn't know, that the nukes weren't working). Functioning nukes are the linchpin of this regime. The Russians know that, we know that. Underfunding the army is no problem. Exhibit A being the continuing existence of the Russian Federation. But the nukes? No way.

I think this point is about Austria modernizing their Leo2s. Not about sending them to Ukraine. This: https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/fuer-panther-produktion-rheinmetall-will-panzer-fabrik-in-der-ukraine-aufbauen-a-8c1a27cf-9be8-42ad-ba51-d0b526c05719 is about Rheinmetall wanting to build a tank factory in Ukraine for producing KF51 Panthers. But this is still in discussion and I will believe it when the contracts are signed. Although Medvedev already promised to bomb the factory to smithereens with Kalibrs... A bit of ironic that Russia may have enabled the production of Panthers in Ukraine Or maybe the Russkies were right with those Ukronazis?

Agree and agree. And you both have given the solution to those problems: money. And since this is the Russian state that wants that problem solved, money is of no concern. Again, I'm not saying it's easy. I'm saying it is possible. And I believe it has and will be done for the Russian nukes.

But then you were building and flying new planes in the US, didn't you? You didn't just keep the ones from the 60s and 70s? The comparison falls short as the missiles are not actually used. But you could have put a DC-9 in storage in 1970, do maintenance and replace parts meticulously. After 50 years, you roll it out of the hangar and 9 out of 10 would fly. Obviously, no one would do that, but if money is of no concern, you could. Since you continuously order spare parts over 50 years, the knowledge to make those parts will be kept alive. Even if the original designers are long dead. Edit: just checked - according to Wikipedia, 31 DC-9s are still flying...

If you build something and test it and document it and write extensive maintenance manuals, then you don't need anyone clever anymore to maintain and use the thing. Russians can read and are very good at following explicit orders. I'm pretty sure, the Soviets have written very, very extensive manuals when they built their nukes. You can laugh all you want about Russian equipment. The engineers I've met were well-educated and resourceful, and quite clever in making things work with the (limited) stuff they had at hand.

In a corrupt system, you know what you can touch and what not. If you don't, you do not survive very long. The nukes were/are THE safety net for the USSR and Russia. These are important for the boss, and you don't touch that. To think that those nukes might not work and somebody wouldn't have leaked that information by now is silly on both accounts.

Longish good thread on the state of repair of the Kerch Bridge. TL;DR: the rail bridge is substantially damaged, and one section needs to be replaced. ETA is July. IIRC we guessed that back then.