TheVulture
-
Posts
2,265 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by TheVulture
-
-
8 minutes ago, paxromana said:
Better protected? More closely watched? Anti-'torpedo' netting?
Perhaps rail bridges have higher engineering requirements (a loaded goods train has a lot more mass in a small area than any road traffic), meaning that an explosive USV isn't a feasible way to damage the rail bridge reliably, while the road bridge has a high chance of being completely severed.
-
11 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:
Harvest = Urozhaine?
That was my guess - the name in the Russian text was Урожайное, which is likely to be the Russian version of Урожайне (Urozhaine)
-
from telegram, Wagner convoy supposedly moving along the M4 north from Rostov-on-Don, presumed heading towards Belarus.
QuotePMC "Wagner" seems to have begun redeployment from field camps. A long convoy without heavy equipment is moving along the M4 highway towards Moscow, accompanied by police. According to subscribers, there are buses with Belarusian numbers in the convoy, which may indirectly indicate the destination.
-
7 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:
Quote from BBC
"UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace says "people want to see gratitude" from Ukraine, in relation to Western aid
He said he told the Ukraine government last year that "we're not Amazon" after a weapons request
He was speaking after President Zelensky criticised Nato for delays in making Ukraine a member"
Hell, yes. Zelensky really went too far this time. "Weak and absurd" what was he thinking?
I'm not the biggest fan of Ben Wallace (although he's one of the better of the Tory party), but on this I think the quote being thrown everywhere rather misrepresents what he said - it's rather more in line with what people on this thread have said that Ukraine can't take western support for granted in the sense that they need to be politically savvy about how public statements can sound to the western public. I.e. don't say stuff and present an attitude that is going to give leverage to the political factions that are rather more pro-Russian. Quoting a BBC article:
Ben Wallace's comments in full
More now on the latest comments from UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace.
In his briefing with reporters, he said that Ukraine had to remember it was asking countries to give up their own stocks of weapons.
“There is a slight word of caution which is, whether we like it or not, people want to see gratitude,” he said. “My counsel to the Ukrainians is sometimes, look, you are persuading countries to give up their own stocks.
"And yes, the war is a noble war and yes, we see it as you doing a war not just for yourselves but also our freedoms. But sometimes you have got to persuade lawmakers on the Hill in America [US Congress].
"You have got to persuade doubting politicians in other countries that it is worth it, it’s worthwhile and they are getting something for it. That’s just the reality of it.”
He said there would sometimes be "grumbles" from US lawmakers, but he insisted that Ukraine would join Nato.
“The win here for Ukraine is the sort of cultural acceptance that Ukraine belongs in Nato.
"You have heard the [UK] prime minister say Ukraine belongs in Nato and the word 'belongs' implies it's fate, implies it’s going to happen.”
-
6 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:
For what it is worth, I do not exactly understand why countries in Europe further to the West are not worried more. We are the next border after Ukraine, but the Netherlands are not exactly on the far side of the Moon either.
I suspect a but factor might be something I heard from a Polish guy: for western Europe (and America) the second world war ended nearly 80 years ago, and was something from our grandparents generation. For eastern Europe, the second world war was something that ended 30 years ago when they were finally no longer occupied by a hostile power, and was something in the direct experience of the majority of people alive today.
After the war, while western Europe had 50 years of peace, albeit with the threat inherent in the cold war, eastern Europe had 50 years of being forcibly occupied by the Soviet Union, which Russia is obviously the prime mover of and the continuation of in most ways.
This has built some very different world views into the bulk of the populations in either region.
-
5 hours ago, DesertFox said:
One less. Confirmation pending.
Today, in the south, in the Berdyansk region, the Russian Lieutenant General Tsokov Oleg Yuriyovych was eliminated reportedly.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1678674695678205952?s=20
https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1678658079917834240?s=20
Also confirmed on pro-Russian Telegram milinfolive:
https://t.me/milinfolive/103396
As a result of the strike by the British Storm Shadow cruise missiles on the ZKP of the 58th Army in the Berdyansk region, the deputy commander of the Southern Military District, Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov, was killed.
-
14 minutes ago, DesertFox said:
After all this Mumbo Jumbo about EU membership, this came through right now:
https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1678484703060324359?s=20
Not really a surprise in the end. There was too much pressure from just about every other NATO member (Hungary excluded) for Sweden to join. It was always about Erdogan holding out for some concessions on other issues, and presumably they've managed to find an acceptable compromise. I'm going to guess that Turkey is out of luck on its desire to have various PKK members in Sweden extradited, but they've probably got some economically beneficial trade-offs.
-
15 minutes ago, Carolus said:
Apparently Gerasimov was relieved of overall command over the Russian troops in Ukraine. He remains Chief of Staff.
New commander is a man called General Mikhail Teplinsky, who is also commander of the VDV. He was the guy who organized the retreat from Kherson west of the Dniepr and was fired in January from his command post for it.
So is he a competent General who executed a difficult manoeuvre well (withdrawing the bulk of his men across the river from contact) who paid the price for doing the politically inconvenient but militarily necessary thing?
Or
Is he the muppet who tried to hold on an untenable bridgehead for far too long and was eventually forced back over the Dneipr leaving most of his heavy equipment behind.
The impression I got here at the time was thar most people thought that the Russian defence of and withdrawl from Kherson was one of the more competently executed things they've managed so far in this war.
-
14 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:
The Russian telegrammer yurasumy offers another variation, in that it was the heights before the town that the Ukrainians captured, but the Russians subsequently drove them off of it ... maybe.
Looking at a topographical map, it seems like the difference between controlling the heights west of the town versus controlling the town is negligible - the town runs about 3km along the base of a ridge line, and is only 500m or so wide (up to 1km at the widest point). If anyone controls the ridge line, the town below looks like it is basically a shooting range,
-
Drone attack on Moscow's Vnukovo International Airport caused it to be closed for several hours. Russia blames Ukraine. Ukraine hasn't said anything either way yet as far as I know.
BBC report: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66094744
QuoteUkraine war: Major Moscow airport flights disrupted by drone attack
By Kathryn ArmstrongBBC NewsUkraine has launched a drone attack on Moscow, the Russian defence ministry says, forcing flights to be diverted from Vnukovo International Airport.
Five drones were reportedly used in Tuesday's attack, which also targeted locations in the wider region around the capital.
The defence ministry said all the drones were shot down and there were no casualties or damage.
Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for the alleged attack.
Restrictions at Vnukovo airport, one of Moscow's three international airports, have now been lifted. Flights from Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt were among those affected.
According to the defence ministry, four of the drones flying in the Moscow region were shot down by air defence systems. A fifth was intercepted electronically before crashing.
"An attempt by the Kyiv regime to attack a zone where civil infrastructure is located, including an airport that receives international flights, is a new terrorist act," foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Telegram.
Russian state media said one of the drones crashed in the town of Kubinka, which is roughly 36km (22 miles) from Vnukovo airport in the southwest of the city.
Another was reportedly shot down near the village of Valuevo, also near the airport.
The BBC is trying to verify this information independently.
-
From the Times
Exiled Wagner group suspends recruitment of fighters
The Wagner group has stopped recruiting fighters after its aborted rebellion last week as Russian state television said the mercenary organisation’s leader had received more than £15 billion in Kremlin funds.
The group has announced a one-month suspension in recruitment because of its “temporary non-participation” in the war in Ukraine and its move to Belarus.
-
On the subject of Ka-52 helicopters, one more reported down: https://t.me/lachentyt/31327
QuoteIn the direction of Berdyansk, Ukrainian fighters of the 309th Marine Brigade shot down a Russian Ka-52 helicopter.
-
6 minutes ago, chris talpas said:
Bizarre don’t know why a twitter link is now showing up in original post when it should be YouTube as seen here
The forum software very frequently messes up embedded links in quotations and displays the wrong link when updating the page with new posts - forcing your browser to reload the page fixes it.
-
I''m sure this will put all put all our minds at ease:
-
6 minutes ago, Jr Buck Private said:
Definitely not an expert on long range weapons but I kinda thought ATACMS weren't needed as much since the Brits started supplying Storm Shadows. Aren't they both going after the same kind of targets? Or is one better suited to certain targets vs the other? Either way, I'm glad we're supplying them.
The main difference is that the US has a lot more ATACMS that it can afford to deliver to Ukraine than the UK can deliver Storm Shadows.
-
3 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:
So Prig was upset that Putin wasn't talking to him for months, but Putin couldn't get Prig to talk to him this past weekend? Someone's lying.
Controversial opinion, but it is possible that Putin, Prigoszhin and Lukaschenko are all less-than-reliable narrators
-
From the Independent (UK newspaper owned by Alexander Lebedev, and these days of dubious reliability IMHO. Caveat emptor) https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-putin-wagner-group-latest-news-b2365501.html:
Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko said he persuaded Vladimir Putin not to “wipe out” Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, in response to what the Kremlin cast as a mutiny.
While describing his Saturday conversation with Putin, Lukashenko used the Russian criminal slang phrase for killing someone, equivalent to the English phrase to “wipe out”.
“I also understood: a brutal decision had been made (and it was the undertone of Putin‘s address) to wipe out” the mutineers, Lukashenko said, according to Belarusian state media.“I suggested to Putin not to rush. ‘Come on,’ I said, ‘Let’s talk with Prigozhin, with his commanders.’ To which he told me: ‘Listen, Sasha, it’s useless. He doesn’t even pick up the phone, he doesn’t want to talk to anyone’.”
-
14 minutes ago, DesertFox said:
Uups...
Assuming I'm reading the translated articles I've found correctly, he was appointed head of St. Petersburg University of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in 2018, suspended in Dec 2022 as part of an investigation in to corruption offences (which took down quite a few high ranking ministry officials) and resigned 'for personal reasons' in April 2023.
And apparently crashed his off-road ATV into a tree yesterday near Leningrad on a holiday with some friends.
-
3 minutes ago, IanL said:
Doesn't he have something else he is supposed to be doing?
He was called away at short notice from giving Utkin a good kicking in the basement, and wants to get back to it.
-
50 minutes ago, Grigb said:
The problem is that video is most likely from Friday.
Maybe, but putting it out today looks like a deilberate message that he's still in post: not something you'd do if he had in fact been fired per Prig's demands.
-
BBC are reporting the release of a video showing Shoigu still apparently in command at the MoD:
Shoigu video a show of composure and control
Sarah Rainsford
Eastern Europe correspondent
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu (right) was pictured next to a commander, on visit to a control post this picture released by the defence ministry
ReutersCopyright: ReutersThe short video of Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu shows him very much still in his job.
We don’t know when it was filmed. But we can read the message it’s meant to send: that, for now at least, Vladimir Putin is protecting his minister – not sacking him, as Yevgeny Prigozhin demanded when he launched his mutiny over the weekend.
Shoigu, who’s been a close ally and friend of Putin for many years, is filmed checking maps and consulting his generals – supposedly at a forward command post of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
He even notes their supposed successes on the battlefield. It’s an obvious show of composure and control by the Kremlin after an armed uprising that left Putin looking weak; his authority badly diminished.
He’d even been forced to drop criminal charges against Prigozhin - the man he had publicly labelled a traitor, just hours before.
-
22 minutes ago, FancyCat said:
Interesting perspective.
It's kind of plausible and internally coherent - except (in my mind) for the opening step. Pirogzhin wanted to force Putin to negotiate about Wagner's future ... by siezing Rostov and several other critical logistics lines, while Utkin took a column to Moscow?
I can't see any world in which anyone might think that that's the course of action to get Putin to answer the phone and agree a happy outcome for Wagner as an organisation.
-
Question re the timing: Russia was going to shut down telegram and a lot of other communications in Rostov etc this evening. Is this something thar has happened just about when this "deal" was announced? Any possibility that this is an attempt to keep Wagner units in Rostov off-balance while Prig is possibly out of easy communication with them? Keep all the rebellious units uncertain as to whether the rebellion is still on?
Pure speculation, with no evidence to back it up.
-
The big question next is - aside from what Prig is actually going to do overnight and tomorrow - is how Gerasimov and Shoigu are going to react. Do they reckon they hw d enough loyal military to refuse to be sacked? Are they prepared to fight their fate rather than go down quietly? How many people actually support Prig and how many loathe him?
There are other parties affected by the coup that haven't showed their hands yet.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Large traffic jam on the roads out of Crimea in the direction of Russia - I guess Russians in Crimea are figuring that if the Kerch bridge is out of action and no-one knows how long the land bridge will be safe for, then it might be a good time to get back to Russia and play it safe:
https://t.me/bbbreaking/160773
A traffic jam more than 5 kilometers long has formed in the Kherson region on the way of motorists leaving Crimea towards Melitopol along the E-105 highway, RIA Novosti reports.
The traffic jam starts from Sokolovsky Lake, located about 20 kilometers from the Chongarsky Bridge. There are many cars with license plates of various regions of the Russian Federation among those leaving. Motorists leaving Crimea through the Chongar checkpoint keep their way along the Kherson (past Genichesk) and Zaporozhye (bypassing Melitopol) regions, the DPR (through Mariupol) and to Rostov-on-Don.