Eddy
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Posts
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Joined
Posts posted by Eddy
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9 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:
Anyway, I would not be surprised to see more and more restrictions lifted in the future regarding AFU's rules of engagement using U.S. donated weapons in Russia proper. Now that the Rubicon has been crossed
This one:
Quote- Intercept Russian aviation, which launches bombs in the direction of Ukrainian territory.
is ripe for being lifted. From an escalatory point of view, the difference between shooting down a russian aircraft that is launching a bomb in the direction of Ukraine and shooting down one that is on a combat air patrol is non-existent. The result is the same, a downed russian aircraft over russian territory. That is either escalatory or it is not, regardless of why the aircraft was in the air.
Added to that, the Ukrainians really only know if a russian aircraft is about to launch a bomb in the direction of Ukraine once it has already done so. So as a restriction it is self defeating as the russian aircraft would successfully release it's bomb before the Ukrainians could attack it.
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A bit more clarity if the reports from Politico and CNN are true.
https://mastodon.social/@MAKS23/112536428128919769
QuoteUkraine can:
- Conduct counter-battery fire (including MLRS/Himars).
- Intercept Russian missiles over Russian territory.
- Intercept Russian aviation, which launches bombs in the direction of Ukrainian territory.
- Strike at Russian troops near the border with Ukraine.
- Strike Russian ammo warehouses and logistics centers with artillery and missiles (HIMARS) on the other side of the border.
Looks like they can sort of go after the VKS.
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6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Famous episode opposite Kyiv last year apparently pissed off the US so much that Ukraine hasn't tried it again:
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-five-aircraft-bryansk-ukraine-patriot-air-defense-system-1810688
Steve
I can understand why the US went nuts over this if the Ukrainians used Patriots inside russia against US wishes. However, I'd argue the facts on the ground have changed now.
Firstly, Ukrainian forces have been killed and territory has been lost because of the VKS's use of glide bombs. There is a need to use long range AA that hit targets in russia that didn't exist back in summer 2023.
Secondly, it's very difficult to argue it would be escalatory when it has already been done and didn't result in an escalation. Unless one wants to go down the rabbit hole of 'ah but this time it may be escalatory'.
Thirdly if the ban is in place as punishment for that incident, the Ukrainians have been punished enough (IMHO)
I really feel for the Ukrainian operation planning guys. There are some countries saying yeah you can use our stuff in russia. Some are saying you can use some of our stuff in russia. And others saying no you can't. Take F16s, the Dutch are saying whatevs and the the Belgians are saying 'don't use our stuff in russia'. Mission planning is hard enough without that added crap.
I can imagine a scene where a M777 crew are having to work out who provided a particular shell before they can decide whether it can be fired or not.
Anyway, rant mode off!
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https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.bsky.social/post/3ktrylofgvk2z
QuoteThe United States sent a signal to Ukraine regarding permission to strike Russian territory with American weapons this morning, May 31. The message was sent through the military, Zelenskyi said in Stockholm during a joint press conference.
Looks like HIMARS and artillery, but not ATACMS.
Haven't heard anything about using Patriot to go after VKS inside of russian territory though.
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On 5/28/2024 at 9:44 PM, danfrodo said:
So y'all, what do you think the F16s will do?
Here's is RUSI's Justin Bronk's take on F16s (vid should start at the correct place):
To me he overly fixates on the the hurdles of using F16s (fixates on the FOD Plod) and doesn't spend enough time exploring what it and the ordinance it carries can do. But, he's a Professor and I'm not so make your own mind up
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Colonel Reisner is back with a new vid.
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37 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:
This is good news! AEW&C platforms could be a big factor, especially if they arrive fairly soon.
It all depends on whether Ukrainian personnel have received training or not. Flying the thing should be easy enough for an existing pilot, as it's no combat aircraft. Likewise, maintaining the aircraft should be reasonably easy, in comparison to those snowflake fighters. But using and maintaining the AWACS systems? I dunno, but I suspect it'll take longer than a couple of hours in a classroom to get proficient. Multiple months to learn the systems. Maybe years to get expert.
So, unless the training has already occurred, I can't see these being operational soon.
There is one way around this of course. Swedish personnel could be part of the package as, erm, on-premises trainers, so to speak.
Don't get me wrong, still good news and very generous from the Swedes. Just don't expect them to pop up next Monday
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2 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:
I think we have seen ... I dunno ... standoff close air support?
Yeah, I should have been clearer. I was thinking of the 1000ft flying over the target, guns blazing, bomb dropping sort of CAS.
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13 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
So y'all, what do you think the F16s will do?
I was just going to reply to LLF, but I'll try to answer with a non answer
It depends. On what radar they have, on what weapons they receive, on the rules of engagement of using those weapons, on how thorough the pilot training has been, on whether they have Link 16 so they can integrate with NATO ISR, on how well the ground crew have been trained, on how may spare parts they've got. And that's just off the top of my head.
I think they have the potential to make a difference but it all depends. At the least I hope they push the VKS back from the behind the front to stop those damn KABs. One thing I definitely don't think we will see is close air support. I thinks that as dead as the dodo now.
The one thing I can definitely say is they are no magic bullet.
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1 hour ago, FancyCat said:
If I'm not mistaken, we have U.S, Germany, Italy who do not approve using their weapons on Russian soil, U.K, Sweden, Finland, the Baltics? have approved their weapons to be used in Russia.
What about the French? Genuine question because I've get a vague feeling they do approve but I can't remember
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2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
ISW?
British Ministry of Defence yesterday
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Article in the WarZone about the strike on the early warning radar
Strike On Russian Strategic Early Warning Radar Site Is A Big Deal (twz.com)
QuoteThe date the Planet Labs image was taken also aligns with initial reports that the attacks on Armavir occurred sometime between May 22 and May 23.
The article goes on to discuss whether the radar was any good or not at tracking ATACMS, hence whether there was justification or not.
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23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
This one feels different, but thinking about it more it's too soon to say either way.
It does feel different though, doesn't it. And I can't put my finger on why. After all it's not the first time Russia has pushed hard for negligible gains in a seemingly operationally insignificant area of the front.
The trouble is, I'm that concerned about confirmation bias that the whole Russian army could collapse, Putin falls out of a window and the Dali Lama takes over, and I'd still be thinking 'need more evidence'.
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5 hours ago, The_Capt said:
Tough one to read. We know that the Russian government only lies when their lips are moving, but there have been some weird signals coming out of the war. This whole Kharkiv thing looks a lot less like shaping and more a weak punch while other areas are running out of gas. The RA can’t take the levels of punishment we have seen indefinitely. The lack of vehicles at Kharkiv and petering out quickly, increases in UA capability and strikes and all this general firing - maybe adds up to Putin needing a pause (and that is what it will be).
Weird that it has gone mainstream so quickly. Normally there would be rumour and rumblings. Of course it will be all the other conditions layered on the thing that will tell the tale - Ukraine stays conveniently neutral, recognizing taken lands, normalizing Russian trade.
The Ukrainian Foreign Minister states that the Russian 'ceasefire' thing is purely to derail Ukraine's peace summit.
I suppose it's the safest/default view for the Ukrainian govt. to take whether they believe it or not.
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8 minutes ago, Kraft said:
?
There is a peace summit in Switzerland, June 15th/16th, which apparently President Biden isn't going to:
Bloomberg: US President Biden likely to miss Ukraine's peace summit (kyivindependent.com)
(I should have typed peace summit, not talks)
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32 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Hmmm indeed.
At first I was thinking perhaps this is a sign of weakness. But then I was more inclined to think that it is a spoiler, or more like attempting to control the narrative, for the upcoming peace talks that the Ukrainians are putting together. It could mean anything or nothing. Unless and until more evidence appears I'm in the 'don't read too much into it' camp.
(Replying to @hcrof as well but I don't know how to multi-quote!)
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https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.bsky.social/post/3kt6epdd7os2j
QuoteThe 110th Mechanized Brigade reports that yesterday and today, two Su-25 fighter jets were shot down. In recent weeks, 6 Su-fighters were claimed to be shot down.
Make that 6 claimed since 4th of May.
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https://mastodon.social/@MAKS23/112491319767010989
Quote110th brigade shot down another Russian Su-25.
That's the fifth claimed since 4th May.
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Another Su25 shot down. Fourth in the last 2 weeks.
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.bsky.social/post/3ksro7gnvaa2z
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️ The 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade named after Marko Bezruchko reports that it has shot down a Su-25 over the Donetsk region.
This is the fourth Su-25 claimed to be shot down in two weeks time.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=976067893986685&ref=sharing
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Striking Russia with US weapons is a decision for Ukraine, says Antony Blinken (msn.com)
Not sure whether this has been posted or not.
QuoteAntony Blinken told a press conference in the Ukrainian capital that while Washington did not encourage Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia with weapons supplied by the US, it believed it was a decision Kyiv should make for itself – in what appeared to be a key shift in American policy.
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3 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:
By the way anything happening in the Ukrainian over the river operations? I saw some claims that "Ukrainians are countering new Russian front by opening another front" in various places, but it feels kinds nonsensical.
There was this, this morning. Nothing particularly stood out to me tbh
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We also have no idea how the values of military equipment are being calculated, which definitely muddies the water. If it is at replacement value, that would mean an old beaten up M113 would be valued at the price of an Armoured Multi-Purpose Vehicle. Which is a little bit disingenuous.
So all of a sudden that 93billion could be a lot less in actual value, not paper.
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7 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:
This is more of a message to the allies
Yes I was thinking that. And perhaps a message to the Russians as well.
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6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Not sure on this math. I think a slice of Financial aid has to go towards soldier pay/ care for dependents. Which is a critical requirement.
Could be. Still, the figure for actual military equipment would not be affected by this, would it?
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112543036586695607
https://mastodon.social/@MAKS23/112543012060483908
HIMARS being used inside russia apparently