Early Surrender Unrealistic?

[HankWWIIOnline]

I decided in my current PBEM game to go for Sealion against my opponent I regularly play against.

By turn 47 I had won. He had sent almost all of his army/hq units to the Med and left the Free French and the Royal Navy to defend Britain. Needless to say, the invasion was quick. So quick that neither the US or the USSR had joined the war, and were around 60-75% readiness. Thus ending WWII in Europe.

I would imagine the US would have immediately joined the war with the surrender of Britain. The USSR would inevitably join soon thereafter. My opponent had quite a large force in the Med still. At least two army divisions, a corp or two, two air units, a bomber unit and some a decent sized Navy both in the Med and still lurking in the Atlantic. Maybe more, but that is what I had caught a glimpse of. The Italians weren't doing so hot, bogged down in Greece and barely winning naval battles in the Med.

I would have liked to have seen the game continue, as did my opponent just to see how this scenario would have played out.

I think for gameplay purposes, both the USSR and the US should join immediately after the fall of Britain if they haven't already. I only had two army divisions and two corps on the Russian front.

Call me optimistic, but I know if I was on the Allies in this scenario I would have liked to continue. Even though in SC there are many possibilities, is all lost if certain situations occur? Barring any foolish strategy's on my part after the fall of Britian, is it just totally impossible to come back as the Allies?

[Tigleth Pilisar]

Hehay!! Your victory is one I like to see.

In the PBEM games I've seen the Allies are way too aggressive - and I guess they have gotta be. Strategies to take Iraq/Portugal/Spain/Norway, excetera give you a big boost in income, but they have a risk and that risk is Sealion. Far too many players abandon England entirely in a gamey, but high payoff "attack the neutrals" strategy.

I think you have won the game by taking England before Russia and US join. Didn't he loose all his English units when the capture of Britain occurred? And you should get all his territories. So he's effectively blocked out of the Med. WWII against only Russia and US at the outset with 120 extra British production - yup forgone conclusion.

[Comrade Trapp]

I think its realistic enough, if the Axis had Sealioned in 1940 and England surrndered, the war would have been pretty much over.

[ February 19, 2003, 05:42 PM: Message edited by: Comrade Trapp ]

[Steve C]

Yeah, I agree with Tigleth Piliser and Comrade Trapp. If you beat England before the others come in, you have earned your victory.

Under the proposed alternative, are you saying the Russians would come in immediately after the fall of Britain ? Who then would ever attempt Sealion if the reward for victory was a horde of Russians pouring over your lightly defended Polish border ? Or do you mean a couple turns grace to give the Axis time to operate sufficient forces back to the East to counter an invasion ?

As for invasions, at 180MPP/turn it's tough to see how the US could build sufficient force to mount a successful attack on Europe without some English navy and air to help protect the transports. Yeah, you get the two BB, but the Germans could set up a cordon of subs and sink enough of the other transports with air to make a successful invasion a remote possibility indeed.

[HankWWIIOnline]

Here is what I was thinking:

1941, Britain falls to the Axis. The next turn, Russia and the US join the Allies. Yes, Russia would certainly earn some early victories while the Axis player began sending troops back to the Eastern front. But it would be a challenge! At least have the 'option' to continue, as the Allied player. But that would require the US and Russia to immediately join.

Also, the UK, even though surrendering to the Axis should allow any remaining units in the game to remain. In the PBEM game I played, he had sufficient naval forces to bring back to the Atlantic to cooperate with the US. As the Axis, I had only a half-strength sub and a full strength cruiser for the Germans and an only slightly bigger Italian navy. Consolidating remaining UK Naval forces with US forces would give the Axis navy a viable threat for some time.

Would British troops elsewhere in the world have given up the fight against the Axis had Germany pulled off Sealion?

I have pulled off Sealion agains the CP before in similar fashion, in a similar time frame. Russia and the US had joined the war, however, about 5 turns before I captured the UK. I held out as long as I could with my meager forces on the Eastern Front...but with little to no remaining opposition in the West I could send all my seasoned units to the Eastern Front AND buy a handful of new ones with the UK plunder. It didn't take me long to push the Russians back.

Against a human player, beating back Russia may take more time. A two to three turn grace period after the fall of the UK may even it up a bit against Russia. The US could slowly build up, only having to really worry about the Axis navy. The US would have ample areas to invade, from the UK all the way down to Africa. An Axis player couldn't effectively defend such a wide area.

I could just accept it and quit asking for more from Hubert. In all reality, most SC Sealions will rarely finish before BOTH the US and Russia join. So I suppose if you can pull it off then just accept the victory. My original thinking was, gameplay-wise the USSR and US were very close to joining the war anyway...but once the UK falls, they say "Nah, nevermind, we'll concede".

[ February 19, 2003, 06:10 PM: Message edited by: HankWWIIOnline ]

[Steve C]

Originally posted by HankWWIIOnline:

Would British troops elsewhere in the world have given up the fight against the Axis had Germany pulled off Sealion?

Doubtless they would be reluctant to surrender, but who would supply them ? Would Churchill and the high command continue to issue orders and coordinate the movements of the remaining forces from elsewhere, say a government in exile in Canada ?

If you really want to test this, why not create a scenario and try it out ?

[Bullwinkle]

Historically speaking, I believe the U.S. would have come in, but not Russia. Russia & the U.S. were far from friends - there was resentment in the U.S.S.R. left over from the Russian Revolution when the U.S. backed the White Russians.

This is not to say that the Soviets would not have attacked Germany - remember when Barbarossa began 3.5 million Germans attacked 4.5 million Russians stationed on the border - hardly a normal border garrison. It is widely believed that Russia would have attacked Germany when they were preoccupied in the West. Operation Yellow went too quickly and if Sealion was completed in short order as well, the Soviets would have probably held on to their non-aggression pact.

The U.S. was isolationist to a fault but would have been persuaded to join the fight since Roosevelt was an Anglophile.

[Piumarcobaleno]

Do you really think that USA would have made a D-Day invasion with troops loaded on ships sailing directly from the homeland? Quite difficult to figure out. No Island Hopping in the Atlantic..

[Bullwinkle]

Good point, the U.S. would be limited at first to a war at sea. But it wouldn't have prevented us from declaring war.

[Tigleth Pilisar]

I just did the Axis early Sealion as well. I didn't plan to, but the opponent was playing the Allies like they were the Axis (ie attacking the Germans like nuts). In addition he pulled his whole navy into the Med in an attempt to kill the Italian Navy.

So Sealion was necessary - as it commonly is against overly aggressive Allied players.

I took Britain, but as I did, US readiness jumped 30% that last turn, and the US joined the war! So the game did not end. Russia came in the next turn.

Of course, Britain lost all her units though. I had nobody on the Russian front and Yugo joined against me too - with no one but the Axis minors to attack there.

Spain joined me when I conquered Britain.

It is an interesting game as Russia is going to get 4-5 turns to build up before I can effectively do anything. With only the US in the west, I can more fully direct future production to Russia.

In the end it is interesting though. I think the Axis will win as my production (German & Italian) may get to 900/turn shortly. But Russia will be a very strong opponent so its not for certain.

Bottom line is that victory may not be a "foregone conclusion" for the early Sealion victory. Its too bad you couldn't keep playing after all.

[Tigleth Pilisar]

A little farther into the game with an early successful Sealion as the German player - things do seem easy.

Orignially I didn't have many of the regular neutrals under occupation, but now I'm conquering them all. Its easy since the UK is dead the allied player can't reinforce neutrals in any way. So every second turn I have 1000 MPPs to spend. And an attack on my Western front is very difficult with no Britain to springboard off. It'll take some time, but things don't look very good for allies.

[Donnyd]

Exactly what Piumarcobuleno (or however you spell it hehe) said. The US would probably not have entered the war if Britain had fallen. Unless of course they could fin some country in Africa or the Mediteranien to launch an assault from. Since by that time an amphibious assault would be their only option pretty much. And moving a fleet for an amphibious assault across the atlantic and then floating off the coast of Britain or France while you make the final preparations for a couple of months? The casualties would probably be extreme even before you could start the invasion. Thus, the US wouldn't enter the war, which probably would've been ok for both Germany and the US because they both have a slim chance of mounting a succesful invasion on one another at this point.

Would the USSR have entered the war? Possibly yes, possibly no. Most likely no, because with the very slim chance of any US involvement they would have little chance of success against the Germans in this situation. Probably they would build up their border forces and start fighting if Germany attacked them, which it would most likely do.

Now, another situation. Assuming the US doesn't enter the war and the USSR is completely conquered by Germany(I should note that this situation includes Alaska and the eastern reaches of USSR), would the US have enetered if the Germans are now a couple hundred miles away from the coast of Alaska and thus have a much easier ability to invade now. My guess is both the US and Canada would have entered into what was left of the war at this point. I know that's not a game situation, but it's fun to think about nonetheless.