War in Sebiria

[DSEDS]

Hi all,

would that have really happened historically?

Thnak you!

Kind Regards

Roland

Germany

[Comrade Trapp]

DSEDS

Yes it could have happended if the Japanese wanted it to happen, but at the time they were more preoccuiped with the war in the Pacific Theater against the United States. Also, in 1938 or 1939 there was a border clash between the Japanese and the Soviets at which the Soviets managed to come out on top, so that probably had something to do with Japan's reluctiance to invade the U.S.S.R. later in the war.

Comrade Trapp

[JerseyJohn]

Yes.

The Japanese Army plan was to avoid conflict with the United States and invade the USSR, knowing that Germany would do so at some point.

The Navy Plan was to seize the resource rich Dutch East Indies, Indochina, Malaya and the Phillipines.

Shortly before the start of the European War the Manchurian Japanese Army fought two disastorous border conflicts in Outer Mongolia against the Russians and received bloody noses in both of them.

The Russians had their best troops on the scene with extensive armor, air and artillery support. The units were led by their best commanders, including Zhukov, many of whom had escaped the purges by dint of sheer distance from Moscow.

The Japanese, on the other hand, were undersupported in all three areas and led by their worst officers. The mere fact they had taken it upon themselves to fight two major actions without bothering to consult Tokyo demonstrates what a bunch of inept loose cannons they were. They were drunk with success from years of defeating poorly equipped, trained and led Chinese and Manchurians. Japan also had the disadvantage of not having heavy tanks, an asset the Russians regarded as vital.

After their two bloody defeats the Japanese Army rightly feared combat with the Soviets.

The Soviets came away with the impression that the Japanese soldier was among the best on earth, but they had little respect for the Japanese Officer Corps.

It's possible that an inteligently led and properly prepared Northern Campaign against the Soviets might well have worked, especially if done in cooperation with Germany's Barbarossa.

But there was little chance of that happening. As you probably know, Germany did not tell Japan about it's plans to invade Russia and Japan reciprocated by not telling Germany about it's plans to attack the U. S. and Britain.

The rapid defeat of Britain, France, and Holland on the other side of the world left the European colonies with minimal defenses and no hope of reinforcement. When FDR imposed crippling embargoes of all strategic resources, including steel and oil, Japan chose the Navy Plan.

[ May 23, 2003, 11:22 PM: Message edited by: JerseyJohn ]

[DSEDS]

Thank you! Further if the Wehrmacht achieved to took moscow, would the soviet gouverment be avacuated to siberia and continue the fight against germany?`I think this would have also effect on Japan´s strategy.

i only know that some soviet authorities were already avacuated to the urals in late 1941.

[ May 24, 2003, 12:00 AM: Message edited by: DSEDS ]

[JerseyJohn]

Most historians I've read say the war would have gone on till Germany reached the Urals, where it would probably have become an armistace.

Whether or not the remaining Soviet Union would have come apart is another question and anybody's guess.

Japan had the bulk of it's army and airforce in Manchuria facing the Soviets throughout the entire war. They must have known about the troop shipments to the east but they appear to have been genuinely afraid of them after those two battles. The two countries signed a non-aggression pact and the Japanese Government seemed to be genuinely shocked when the USSR violated it to attack them in August of 1945. The Soviet invasion seems to have weighed equally in their surrender with the two A-bomb droppings. Intitial reports of the cities being destroyed in a single gigantic explosion were not taken seriously in Tokyo. There's evidence that nobody in Japan really understood what became of Hiroshima and Nagasaki till the war ended. Which, in any event, followed quickly upon the events.

[ May 24, 2003, 01:18 AM: Message edited by: JerseyJohn ]