zinz
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Posts posted by zinz
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https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-mobilization-ukraine-stealth-recruiting/32948631.html
Russian mobilization. Mostly through financial incentives and peer pressure
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500k casualties projected by end of May
■ Most engagements & 2nd-highest casualties 2024 so far
■ Equipment losses slightly above average; artillery in last 7 days at a record height
■ Massive
missile strikes but a fair share of them intercepted
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air & artillery strikes combined in GSUA's report; close to 7-day average
■ Oryx: 100
45 ; 30-day ratio of 3.0x, >3k tank losses confirmed
■ Poternet: +287
names added to database
https://mastodon.social/@ragnarbjartur@masto.ai/112410337183781506
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https://theins.press/en/confession/271412
Stories from the lucky ones in the meat assaults
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9 hours ago, ASL Veteran said:
Not sure if this has been posted here before
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https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-4-may-2024
Tom Cooper points out the increased hunt for Russian air defense systems in the last week. Accompanied with firework videos.
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1 hour ago, poesel said:
Doesn't GLSDB have an IR seeker? Shouldn't that work at least against hot targets?
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-30-april-2024
According to Tom Cooper the seperation from rocket to bomb is the problem currently. That sounds fixable at least but is not a small problem to get right.
QuoteThat is the ground-launched small diameter bomb (SDB, also known as the GBU-39). And then, so say contacts, the problem is not with the Russian jamming of the GPS, but with the system responsible to disconnect the GBU-39 SDB from the booster, once the weapon is launched and airborne.
The booster serves the purpose of launching the weapon, getting it airborne and to its trajectory to the target. The booster burns for few seconds: that’s enough to get the weapon to its speed and trajectory. Once the booster burns out, it’s ‘spent’, disconnected from the weapon and falling away in order not to spoil the weapon’s performance. Lately, GLSDBs began suffering a mechanical failure in which the booster section failed to separate, as result of which all too many GBU-39s were missing their target. Thus, and to prevent unnecessary waste of expensive weapons, the ZSU has withdrawn the GBU-39 SDBs from use (until the manufacturer solves the problem).
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57 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:
I hope this spike in the number of Russian artillery systems claimed to have been destroyed means Ukraine is started to receive artillery rounds in bigger quantities, i.e., counter-battery fire.
Most likely glmrs rockets. Artillery rounds more likely for the infantry.
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https://mastodon.social/@ragnarbjartur@masto.ai/112381829171883096
Reported Russian personel losses are at an all time high. The losses are around 3 to 400 higher than 2 weeks ago. Now up to 1200 per day for the 7 day average. I think that means that new or expected munitions are already having an impact. Before the US aid package Russian losses were in decline. Now they are through the roof
QuoteWAR IN #UKRAINE - MAY 4, 2024
■ New record for 7-day casualties; 9th highest daily losses reported
■ Equipment losses stay well above average; special equipment passes 2,000 mark
■ Increased air strikes & fewer artillery ones on both sides
https://lookerstudio.google.com/reporting/dfbcec47-7b01-400e-ab21-de8eb98c8f3a?s=kEpzTUNCBK0
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https://masto.aidon.social/@ChrisO_wiki/112359154927283225
Not so positive view inside Ukraine. From this view it's currently the hardest time for Ukraine since March 2022.
QuoteThere are three reasons for the current state of affairs and in principle there is nothing revelatory here, as the problems on the Ukrainian side have been known for a long time: lack of ammunition, manpower, fortifications. To illustrate the shortage of artillery ammunition, it is enough to mention that there are units on the Ukrainian side whose expenditure has decreased by 70-90% compared to the summer of 2023. Artillery fire is limited to a minimum and often has to be authorised by brigade commanders. In this context, US assistance is now crucial, as it will reduce the disparity between Russian and Ukrainian numbers. But we are still talking here about reducing asymmetry, not about reaching parity. Ukrainian restrictions on access to guns and barrels will effectively affect the number of bombardments the Ukrainians can conduct. But what comes from the US will not change the course of this war, it will only delay it. We continue to wait for long-term and systemic solutions, both from the US and Europe, and the presentation of a concrete plan for Ukraine's military support in this war that would allow it to focus on planning (together with Western advisors) and conducting operations on the frontline to regain the initiative. The start of fortification construction was delayed. In the context of emerging reports of potential Russian attacks towards Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv (in my opinion, this information is part of Russia's reflexive control mechanism [see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflexive_control]), Kiev was faced with the dilemma of choosing a priority area. Analysing publicly available satellite images of the areas where Russia is currently leading the assault (Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka directions), there are no visible fortified lines. It seems that the Ukrainians have focused on building up resistance strongpoints, which are, however, vulnerable to flanking manoeuvres, which is already taking place. It remains to be hoped that additional fortifications are being created deep inside the Donetsk region. However, the shortage of soldiers is the key factor that will have the greatest impact on developments on the front in the next 3-4 months. During this time, newly mobilised soldiers will begin to appear on the frontline, but there is also the possibility that their training time will be reduced to a minimum in the event of a Russian breakthrough or a shortage of reserves. In that case, Ukraine could find itself in the same situation as Russia in September 2022 [i.e. facing a localised collapse, as happened to Russia in the Kharkiv region]. We are currently seeing attempts to fill gaps in the front line by moving units from other directions, and engaging the 47th Mechanised Brigade or the 3rd Assault Brigade. However, such actions are difficult to sustain in the months ahead due to personnel losses on the Ukrainian side. We have reached the point where the situation on the frontline is the worst since March 2022. The Russians' numerical superiority continues to grow, and so does the number of attacks. Ukraine has not survived the darkest hour. It is yet to begin." /end
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Ukraine has started producing a DJI Mavic clone under the not-so-original name ‘Shmavik’. Priced at US$3500, it is no different from the original but the design is 100% redesigned for military use. “Shmavik” is a reusable drone designed for reconnaissance and airdrops - it has two independently releasable payloads of up to 500g each. With payload, the range is 15km and 35 minutes, without payload - 80 minutes. The ‘Shmavik’ also has easily changeable targeting and imaging frequencies. Planned production of 50’000 per year.
Via: https://mastodon.social/@kravietz@agora.echelon.pl/112296332321909985
I still don't know why Ukrainians allies don't seem able to get projects like this on the way. The cost of development is a fraction of the cost of a leopard... Peanuts to what else is being sent.
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https://mastodon.social/@ChrisO_wiki/112279689602601908
Russia is discussing how to deal with the destruction of their refineries. The proposed lowering of standards would seriously damage their more modern vehicles.
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https://harpers.org/archive/2024/03/the-pentagons-silicon-valley-problem-andrew-cockburn/
I think many here also ride the Ai hipe train. Might be an interesting read @The_Capt
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1 minute ago, kimbosbread said:
Haven’t they stripped some of those to get blown up in trenches though?
That's why putting lots of cpnscripts on a ship that is not expecting to fight a peer naval war but mostly in the support role and freeing up marines for the trenches wasn't the worst idea of the Russians. Only problem for them is that Ukraine can kill their ships without a navy.
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https://mastodon.social/@ragnarbjartur@masto.ai/112041991563168020
QuoteRecord weekly equipment losses, vehicle losses also at record 7-day losses
Well as reported by Ukraine. But Russian advances are not cheap for the Russians.
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Money quotes:
QuoteTo make powder, you need a specific kind of cotton, which mostly comes from China.
Would you know it, deliveries of this cotton from China stopped as if by chance a few months ago,
Well it sounds like there is work being done on substitute materials
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1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:
Another update from Syrskyi
https://t.me/osirskiy/608
That does sound encouraging. Hopefully he can reform the command staff away from the Soviet mindset. We have seen complaints from Ukrainian soldiers for a long time.
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Does someone have a good statistic of Russias missile camping? There were only a couple big strikes this winter. Not like last year with a strike every half a week. So maybe Ukraine doesn't need to have all their air defense assets around Kiev right now. That might also explain why the shoot downs only started now
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https://mastodon.social/@Ukrainenews/112011138304920773
QuoteExplosions in Nova Kakhovka: partisans blew up the headquarters of Putin's party!!
Partisans blew up the headquarters of Putin's party in occupied Nova Kakhovka in the Kherson region.
As the Ukrainian Resistance movement reports, explosions rang out this morning near the entrance to the office of the United Russia party. It was also loud near the "polling station".
The resistance is still going on. We haven't written about it here lately. Well I am also sure lots of Ukrainians have left the occupied areas in the last 2 years. Anyone got some numbers on that?
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https://kyivindependent.com/der-spiegel-germany-india-ammunition/
Well looks like proper sourcing of all world wide ammunitions is actually happening
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Swedish opposition, prior to tomorrow's probable ratification of Sweden's accession to NATO by Hungary, pressure the government to immediately start talks on the supply of JAS-39 Gripen to Ukraine. A majority in parliament seems to support this move.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111994404908604461
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/O8wx8A/trycket-okar-om-jas-till-ukraina
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1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:
Thanks as always for the digest and the threadreader link, for those of us who don't X.
...The Threadreader ads are just nuts though, supermarket tabloid 'Elvis alien clone' stuff. Or maybe that's just my part of the world.
I recommend ublock origin
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1 hour ago, dan/california said:
But as you yourself have stated, self driving cars need an error rate that is approximately zero. For military drone AI an error rate of ten percent is probably more than acceptable in most circumstances. Your doctrine and planning have just have to reflect this. I mean we have hard evidence that a lot of Russian drones in full FPV mode with live overwatch from an ISR drone still hit decoys all the time.
Well think about how much fun we are making about bad Russian targeting with their missile campaigns. We will see if autonomous systems will do any better
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
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Any source for the FPV pricing? Hell a Mavic 3 costs 2000€ of the shelf and that is miles too fancy for a FPV drone. The correct price for the front line FPV drones that take out tanks and Infanterie which we all have seen so many times is most likely around 500€ if it's not sold by the military industrial complex.