cesmonkey
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Posts posted by cesmonkey
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Two years ago, I outlined eight lessons from Russia's war against Ukraine. And though I warned that it was too early to be confident about any predictions, they have held up reasonably well.
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Rybar claims:
https://t.me/rybar/60880
QuoteAbout strikes by the Russian Armed Forces against targets in the Poltava region
In the morning, footage of effective strikes by the Russian Armed Forces against air defense missile systems and aircraft stands, objective control of which was provided by reconnaissance UAVs, appeared on the Internet.
One could get used to a video with such content, but there is one nuance: this time the targets were in the Poltava region, a record 140 km from the front line for such cases.
First, Russian troops attacked the Mirgorod airfield, where they destroyed a Su-27UB combat training fighter . Nearby were MiG-29s, recently relocated from the Dnepropetrovsk airfield after recent successful flights.
Most likely, the other sides were not “covered” with shrapnel and did not receive any damage. However, at one of the parking lots one can see the collected remains of other previously shot down or destroyed Ukrainian Air Force aircraft, of which there are about five .
In another attack, Russian troops hit a battery of S-300 air defense systems in the village of Polyvyanoye , east of Mirgorod. As a result of two hits, two launchers were destroyed, with the detonation of ammunition, and also, at a minimum, the illumination and low-altitude detection stations along with the control point were disabled.
️Hitting targets deep behind enemy lines with parallel objective control from the air again speaks of the growth of the strike and reconnaissance capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces. Successful actions in the Poltava region were also facilitated by the diligent work to destroy Ukrainian air defense systems in the front-line areas.
It is unnecessary to talk about the importance of destroying enemy air defenses from the point of view of the impact on its combat capabilities. The enemy is also fully aware of this, as can be seen from the example of regular salvoes of ATACMS ballistic missiles in the Crimea.
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A skirmish took place in Odesa between employees of the "ambulance" and the military commissariat. The TCC reacted
In Odessa, there was a clash between military personnel from the shopping center and ambulance workers after the military refused to release paramedics from the building of the recruitment center, where doctors arrived on the call.
In Odesa, there was a clash between employees of the local TCC and "ambulance" workers. The military did not want to release the paramedics who had arrived there on call from the building of the Military Commissariat. Local Telegram channels write about it, UNN reports.
Details
On the network, locals say that the driver of the "ambulance" went to the TCC to update the data, in accordance with the law. When the man was refused to be released from the assembly center, he became ill, and medical teams were called to the TCC.
However, according to the local media, the doctors who wanted to hospitalize the man also refused to let him out of the premises of the TCC. A video of medics gathering for a protest near the building of the Kyiv RTCC and the Odesa JV also appeared online. The verbal altercation between the military and medics gradually turned into a fight.
Many videos show ambulance workers fighting with men in military uniform. You can also see how the man sprayed the doctor in the face with a can.
According to local mass media, TCC employees eventually released the medics and the ambulance driver after a protest organized by paramedics.
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Update from Konstantin Mashovets
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1944
QuoteReview...
As far as I understand, in the zone of operation of his group of forces (GV) "Center", the enemy will soon be able to reach the Novopokrovskoye - Umanskoye line and take control of the village of Yasnobrodovka...
Which, in principle, will remove the situation for him , to a sufficient extent, a threat from the south for his “Ocheretinsk group” - the 137th, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades (OMSBR) and the 433rd motorized rifle regiment (MSR) of the 27th motorized rifle division. (MSD).
And this, in fact, will “free their hands” in continuing the offensive in the northwestern and western directions, that is, towards the village of Lozuvatskoye, the village of Sokol and the village of Novoselovka Pervaya.
The brigades of the enemy's 41st and 2nd combined arms armies (OVA) operating in this direction are the 74th, 55th OMSBR (41st ZVA), 15th OMSBR (2nd OVA) and 114th OMSBR 1 -th AK, reinforced by a number of regiments and battalions from the territorial troops and the mobilization reserve, will obviously in the near future try to break through along two main “directorates”:
- through Vozdvizhenka towards the Pokrovsk - Konstantinovka road, probably with the goal of cutting it off at the Malinovka section - New Poltavka
- and reach the Volchya River in the section between Progress and Kamyshevka and, if possible, capture a couple of bridgeheads on it.
And at the present time, with regard to the second directorate, I do not see much difficulty for the enemy in achieving these goals...
Obviously, Yasnobrodovka and Novoselovka The First Armed Forces of Ukraine will be lost in the near future, and then the enemy will “rush” to the Lozovatskoye - Progress line ...
The final “intermediate” chord will probably be the advance of advanced enemy units to the Vozdvizhenka area.
It should be noted that in the direction of applying its main efforts, the enemy continues to have a significant advantage in forces and means and, moreover, is actively massaging them in certain areas and directions, creating “in the moment” an almost “crushing” advantage.
The enemy’s ability to actively maneuver along the front with appropriate forces and means and constantly increase the composition of his advanced strike tactical groups clearly gives him a certain head start in this regard.
From the latest examples...
- a significant replenishment of the enemy's 15th Infantry Motorized Rifle Brigade, operating in this direction... the brigade received another "marching battalion" for this
- the introduction into battle of the enemy's "fresh" 137th Infantry Motorized Rifle Brigade (from the 41st Infantry Motorized Rifle Brigade ), it is already operating in several units in the Pokrovsky direction.
In general, the situation in the Pokrovsky direction is difficult and complex, and has every chance of further deterioration...
The enemy command, in the near future, will obviously make every effort to “broaden and deepen” there is even more of it.
In this regard, I would carefully monitor the situation in the tactical rear of the enemy’s 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigade zone and the adjacent flank of the enemy’s Main Guards “Center” and Main Guards “South”. This is the direction to Alexandropol and Kalinovo, as well as the area of the village of Karlovka. After all, obviously, the enemy will in the near future try to take advantage of the results of his success in the Pokrovsky direction.
Quote2. As for the Kramatorsk direction , we can state that the enemy here is systematically and gradually trying to realize his plan regarding the immediate tasks formulated for himself. Namely:
- He managed, with the help of the forward units of the 98th Airborne Division (Airborne Division) and reinforcements, to break through into the city of Chasov Yar and take control of almost half of the Kanal microdistrict, where tough close-quarters battles are now continuing in urban areas . Most likely, he will be able to occupy it completely and go to the bridge crossing over the canal on the street. O. Koshevoy
- And he “came closely” to the “problem” of Kleshchievka - Andreevka, the advanced units of the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment, the 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd AK began active attacking and assault operations from the area of the village of Ivanovskoye along the canal - Donbass" in a southerly direction, clearly trying to "collapse" the entire defense system of the Ukrainian Armed Forces along the Klishchievka - Andreevka line, while simultaneously attacking through Klishchievka itself in a southwestern direction.
That is, the enemy command is trying to create for itself "convenient" preconditions for breaking through BEYOND the canal south of the Konstantinovka - Bakhmut road and the assault on the city of Chasov Yar from the south...
In this regard, the enemy’s attempts to actively act along the Ivanovskoye - Stupochki direction look most dangerous (of course, if he manages to push our troops BEYOND the channel from Kleshchievka before that, than he is, in fact, busy at the moment).
That is, the prospects of a frontal assault on the city of Vremya Yar “strictly from the east” by the forces of the 98th Motorized Rifle Division are clearly not very popular with the Russian command there...
Well, Somewhere, in this regard, it can be understood - the prospect of a breakthrough through the canal under fairly dense fire influence of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from positions fortified on the western bank... well, such a “solution”.
Therefore, in my opinion, in the Kramatorsk direction in the near future we will see concentrated attempts by the enemy to achieve the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces BEHIND the canal south of the Konstantinovka - Bakhmut road...
Obviously, this kind of Klishchievsky bridgehead of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, in the context of the prospects for the assault on the city of Chasov Yar, is very Callous to the enemy
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Update from Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi
https://t.me/osirskiy/719
QuoteFor several days in a row, he worked in military units that conduct defense at the hottest points of the Eastern Front.
The enemy continues to conduct active offensive actions of varying intensity practically along the entire front, concentrating the main efforts on the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. Here, the enemy concentrated the largest number of his assault units from eight shock brigades.
Fierce battles in these directions have been going on for several months, and during this time our soldiers courageously restrained the enemy's advance.Fighting continues in the Chasovoy Yar, Klishchiivka, and Kalynyvka districts. The enemy is trying to capture these settlements in order to expand the geography of its advance in the direction of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Unsuccessfully, the enemy stormed Bilogorivka, which became an eloquent example of the resilience of the Ukrainian army in the Luhansk region.
The enemy rushes to Siversk from two directions, but each time they roll back, leaving the corpses of their soldiers behind.
In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy is conducting unsuccessful actions, trying to advance deep into our battle formations and create a so-called "security belt".
In Vovchansk, the enemy is bogged down, despite the forces and resources involved, which are constantly replenished at the expense of units from other directions.In the Zaporozhye direction, the aggressor carries out offensive actions in the Staromayorske and Robotyne districts, but in fact without success.
In the Krynka area, fighting continued for the maintenance of the bridgehead and control of the islands, without significant changes in the condition and position of the parties.In these conditions, it is very important for us to maintain the occupied lines and positions, to prevent a defense breakthrough, and to destroy the enemy's manpower and equipment as much as possible.
We need to gain an advantage over the enemy, reduce losses, and most importantly, change the defensive and offensive psychology, which will be an important step on the way to our Victory!
To do this, we are focusing our efforts on improving the quality of classes with units that are undergoing combat coordination, during which issues of combating and protecting against enemy drones, moving on the battlefield, using EW devices, evacuating the wounded and many other relevant issues are worked out. in the conditions of modern combat.Only technological superiority and training of the troops will ensure our success on the battlefield!
Glory to Ukraine! -
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We are talking with international partners about supplying a Patriot system to Ukraine. The Netherlands has made a radar and three launch systems available for this purpose.
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1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:
Yeah, spoke to a guy a couple months back who was shutting down his Ukraine aid- related consultancy owing to total frustration with the local bureacrats. Not corruption so much, just total inflexibility; they only know how to quote and apply the book, no interest in the outcome.
To get anything done, you need to work with the parallel/amateur channels (Ukrainians are really great at creating those), but that's all a no-go where any kind of US aid money is involved because 'there's no accountability'.
So, unstoppable dumb meets immovable stupid.....
I speculate that they "follow the book" to reduce the chance of corruption. Not an easy problem to solve.
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Update from Konstantin Mashovets
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1940
Here's part two:
Quote2. In the Pokrovsky direction, the troops (forces) of the enemy group (GV) “Center” continue persistent attacks in the northwestern direction.
Probably, the advanced units of the enemy's 30th separate motorized rifle brigade (OMSBR), in cooperation with the 35th MRB and at least one motorized rifle regiment of the 27th motorized rifle division (MSR), most likely the 433rd MSBR, succeeded within several occupy the village of Novoaleksandrovka for a day and move north of the railway, towards the village of Lozovatskoye.
In general, as far as I understand, the Ukrainian command has not yet been able to cope with the crisis, which, obviously, has arisen in almost the entire zone of action of the enemy GV "Center"... It has
not yet been possible to stop the advance of the enemy's advanced units in the Ocheretino-Vozdvizhenka direction , as well as to the south (in the Umansky area, in the direction of Yasnobrodovka and two “axial directorates - Novopokrovskoye - Novoselovka Pervaya and towards the village of Sokol)
In addition, after the obvious tactical success of the enemy in the southern part of this strip (the area with ... In this regard, the “extreme need” for him to advance to the Sokol-Novopokrovskoye line is, obviously, gradually disappearing, although, of course, it remains quite desirable. After
all, his advanced units are gradually moving towards the village of Novoselovka Pervaya in a different direction - from the south. , which, by and large, is even “deeper” in securing the southern flank of the “Ocheretinsk” group than the above line.
In general, with the further increase of the enemy’s efforts in this direction (and it, obviously, will be so...), we have every prospect of getting not just tactical, but significant operational troubles...
At the moment, in the Pokrovsky operational direction ALREADY we have a full-scale tactical crisis, and if the enemy additionally brings in 2-3 more motorized rifle brigades (msbr) + 3-4 motorized rifle brigades... then in this case I don’t even see much difficulty for him in terms of turning these tactical successes into operational ones. ..
Obviously, the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this direction do not yet have the ability to either stop or “stop” the enemy’s offensive, which already has a steady tendency to grow in scale.
Moreover, in my opinion, due to his latest tactical successes in this direction, the “variability” of his POSSIBLE further actions begins to increase before the enemy command...
In this regard, the fact that the enemy is persistently trying to advance in the western and northern - in western directions, but at the same time “does not force events” in the zone of operation of its 132nd Omsk Rifle Brigade,for example in the direction of Kalinovo or Alexandropol...
In other words, he is trying to get “as deep as possible” BEHIND the right flank of our Toretsk tactical group from the south to the Pokrovsk – Konstantinovka road.
What will happen next, I think... there is no need to explain..
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Has anyone heard more details on the loss / withdrawl from the Krynky bridgehead and what transpired?
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Hmmm ...
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A busy day:
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Commander-in-Chief of the AFU
https://t.me/osirskiy/715QuoteThe war does not stand in the way of changes in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
We continue to improve the structures of military management. Our main task is to make the military command system more effective and eliminate duplication of functions.
These measures are carried out as part of the implementation of the strategy for the development of the types and separate branches of the Armed Forces of Ukraine until 2035.For the first time, we are planning ten years ahead.
In the same context, the formation of the Forces of unmanned systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is being carried out.
In addition, optimization of the staffing structure of the units of the General Staff continues. In particular, their number is decreasing and they are getting rid of extraneous functions. Thanks to this, the military management bodies that command the troops in the areas of hostilities have already been strengthened.Our goal, despite Russian aggression, is to create a promising structure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the period before joining NATO.
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This Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package, which has an estimated value of $225 million, will provide Ukraine additional capabilities to meet its most urgent battlefield needs, such as: air defense interceptors; artillery systems and munitions; armored vehicles; and anti-tank weapons.
The capabilities in this announcement include:
Missiles for HAWK air defense systems;
Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
155mm Howitzers;
155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
81mm mortar systems;
M113 Armored Personnel Carriers;
Trailers to transport heavy equipment;
Coastal and riverine patrol boats;
Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
Small arms ammunition and grenades;
Demolitions munitions;
Night vision devices; and
Spare parts, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment. -
From Ukrainian Konstantin Mashovets:
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1934Quote
In the Pokrovsky direction , the enemy apparently managed to “catch on” to Novoaleksandrovka and provide the left flank of his Ocheretinsky group with an advance to the Sokol-Novopokrovskoye line.
In the Kramatorsk direction , the enemy is expanding the area of control, where he managed to reach the Seversky Donets - Donbass canal, south of the city of Chasov Yar, and also advance south of the "Novy" microdistrict of the city of Chasov Yar.
Obviously, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not yet been able, unlike the Kharkov operational direction, to stop the enemy’s offensive in the Eastern operational zone - neither in the Pokrovsky nor in the Kramatorsk directions.
There will be no review tomorrow morning due to “technical reasons”.
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“We will announce the sale of Mirage 2000-5s” on Friday during Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to France, the French president said in an interview on TF1 and France 2, at the end of a day of commemorations of the D-Day landings on June 6, 1944, to which the Ukrainian president was invited.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
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