mosuri
-
Posts
125 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by mosuri
-
-
5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
This is bad logic. You are assuming the world is black and white... either Russian remains intact and Ukraine is wiped out *OR* Russia is forced to collapse and Ukraine (and everybody else) is saved.
We've been over this hundreds of times. This is a dangerously wrong way to look at the situation in front of us.
The goals of the West should be to get Russia out of Ukraine, have Russia ostracized until it makes amends, and ensure Russia can't attack its neighbors. This MIGHT only be achievable if Russia collapses, however collapse brings with it very undesirable things which MIGHT be worse than the status quo. Even for Ukraine. Therefore, the West should be trying to avoid pushing Russia into collapse while focusing on its goals. If collapse happens as a necessary byproduct, I say "so be it". But it shouldn't be ensuring we go down that path.
Steve
I fully agree that the collapse path is "here be dragons" territory. But at the same time I fear that a non-collapse end to the war -- whereever in the spectrum of possibilities it will be -- will just result in a couple decades of interim peace. With the Germans it took a victory parade in Berlin to convince them that invading your neighbours was not a great idea -- before that it was all stab in the back, spineless politicians selling the country and stories for 20 years until they went for round #2.
I don't know what else would convince russians that having the larges country in the world should be enough for them already, so we probably have to settle for the least bad options. A new iron curtain is rather better than suddenly finding new sources of trinitite (being a cold war teenager I recall those horror scenarios well enough).
-
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-ministers-outrageous-hungary-blocks-military-aid-arms-ukraine/
How about a Huxit, both from EU and NATO? What do we need these bothersome kremlinites for anyway?
-
Fico of Slovakia in hospital after being shot
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg6761ggxz1o
No details yet on the attacker's motivation but he's been caught
-
5 minutes ago, Monty's Mighty Moustache said:
Putin set to replace Shoigu as defence minister https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-69000698
MMM
Whoa. There's been rumours in the past few days, but they were wrapped in so much hyperbole that it was difficult to judge if there was anything real behind.
Looks like we'll know soon enough what Shoigu's next post will be ...
-
9 hours ago, Holien said:
Hmmm he has not fallen out of a window?
"Russian deputy defence minister detained for allegedly taking bribes"
Power struggles at the top?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68886406
Quite unusual for corruption charges to be laid against a top table player.
Maybe for mass consumption?
Court politics -- everyone is corrupt, but it's only made an issue for those that are to be removed.
Someone wants to be rid of him, and he doesn't have a protector.
-
Whoa. A very bold claim that Ukraine struct a russian ship in Kaliningrad:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/30778
That would be something if true.
-
1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
Any aircraft Russia loses are good to see, but Tu-95MS are the real prize. A quick search shows that Russia may have as few as 60 of these in total. They probably have some older mothballed airframes they can put back into service, but even 2 or 3 represents a statistically meaningful decrease in readiness levels.
Steve
The twitter post above also claims "several strategic aviation pilots among the dead" which is an excellent addition.
I do not know which resource is more under pressure, the bears or their pilots, but whittling down both of those hard to replace assets is great news.
Waiting for Peskov to start claiming that attacks on russian strategic aviation are a nuclear strike red line in 3, 2, 1...
-
18 hours ago, Kinophile said:
This guy (RB&PG) has been continuously maddened by the lack of a Ukrainian campaign against RUS electrical and gas infrastructure. He has a good point.
Well, I can't tell whether those are part of infrastructure that's wholly internal to russia, or whether they are part of international pipelines, but in this strange war russian natural gas still flows through pipelines over Ukraine to countries like Hungary and Austria, even today.
Agreement continues until end of this year, at least: https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91649
It probably isn't in the best interests of Ukraine to rock that particular boat and cause worsening relations with EU members, even if they are led by characters like the toad orban (although to be fair, toads have a spine, and a heart) or Slovakia's fu.., I mean, fico.
-
14 hours ago, Kinophile said:
I admit I couldn't believe russians would be so cavalier as to park numerous strategically important aircraft on an airstrip so close to front and thought it must be just a collection of scrap aluminum. Factory would be harder to relocate, but surely anything flyable that was worth protecting would have already flown out.
But happy to be wrong about that.
-
Footage claimed to be from onboard tsezar kunikov that was submarine-converted last month:
-
22 hours ago, Fenris said:
This clip is from a civilian ship that was nearby. They spot one of the drones trailing the patrol boat before the clip ends.
Another clip, this time it shows what I'm guessing is the first impact
Apologies if this has been posted up thread.
Seeing the tail chase etc makes me wonder whether the ye olde smoke dischargers would help. If the crew has been alerted, at least to make more difficult for the drone pilot to see what/where he's hitting, or don't modern boats have smoke anymore? Have wondered the same with AFV's, the T series can dump smoke can't it? Dump smoke and hide inside, at least make it more difficult for an FPV to hit the rear turret.
These are some funny (as in strange) vids. Well, it's true that people act in funny ways when in an unexpected situations, if they act at all, but still -- they clearly see the drone close by, they see and hear traces flying relatively close, and think nothing of it. And it seems more sloth and stupidity than sang froid. No seeking of cover until sparks really start flying, no alarming anyone on the boat they are on that there are explosives swimming in the waters around them, not to even mention doing something active like finding a spotlight to illuminate the drone with... well, good for Ukraine. As is the absolutely pathetic defense the target put up.
-
44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
What I don't get, as you don't, is how can they not be doing rather inexpensive and practical drone counter measures better than they apparently are. Maybe they used to think having a couple of guys with a PKM was sufficient, but by now they should have learned it absolutely is not.
It's torpedo boats and quick firing guns all over again... more dakka seems like the solution. Still, the Tarantul that was sunk before (Ivanovets) did have turreted 30mm gatling guns for close in defence and it didn't help -- that system is maybe suited for aerial targets only in automatic mode but per Wikipedia it has manual operation mode as well, but again, didn't help. Either the targeting system doesn't work with sea targets, guns don't depress enough, gunners were drunk, or somefink. Heck, maybe someone sold the ammo in port for vodka money.
-
Something brewing in Ingushetia?
-
3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:
Possibly wrong, pics don't look doctored though. Would be bizarro that the Rus AF did this, and yet also not surprising in many ways.
I'm leaning towards these being rotting hulks, or maybe something that could be restored, but not operational at the moment.
More of the same can be found by panning the current google map image a bit SE ...
Quick googling shows that there's a Beriyev facility that's been hosting various airframes.
E.g. this stock photo from 2007
-
22 hours ago, Kinophile said:
Omnomnomnom
There's also two what looks like Tu-95 to my untrained eye, plus two other four-engine planes (Il-76?)
Taganrog is what, barely 100 miles from the front?
This seems sus to me. Would love it to be yet another "not even russians are that stupid" situation but 2 strategic bombers and AWACS parked right next to each other, seems too good to be true.
-
3 hours ago, Kinophile said:
2 more Su34 plinked?
If so, it's a good day today!
-
2 hours ago, zinz said:
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/26/europe/sweden-nato-accession-hungary-intl/index.html
Sweden is finally in NATO
Yes but no but -- Hungarian president still needs to sign, it can take a number of days, and in principle the president can refuse to sign and return the proposal back to the parliament. Unlikely, perhaps, but the fat lady sings only when the instrument is delivered to NATO.
-
1 hour ago, The_Capt said:
Going to lay this one at the feet of all those who declared loudly and uncompromisingly that winning this war must mean 100% of pre-2014 Ukraine is re-taken and Russia is effectively crushed - this is where that amateur dangerous narrative gets us. If we frame victory as a something that large, rife with hazards, then anything less is defeat. This blatantly violates the principle that all war is negotiation. It creates a strategic binary box of our own making.
This of course can create either positive or negative effect. "War is lost, so why keep dumping good money after bad?" Or, "wow, we had better get our act together!" I guess we will have to see which one happens.
As usual with these questionnaires, the further you are removed from the Evil Empire, the less pressing the matter seems. I don't think the Mediterraneans have been fully on board before, either.
I do get your point. But over here next to the leningrad oblast I think we understand giving up is the worst option.
-
Another equipment counting video, this time on artillery.
Russia has drawn deeply from storage depots, although much still remains.
-
30 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:
Re the illustration in the article, that toad will never become a prince no matter how many times you kiss it.
But if it took French-Italian diplomacy to get Orban to finally stop blocking the aid, kudos to Meloni and Macron.
-
This has potential to be huge: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/26885
Ukranians reaching leningrad by drone means they can strike ust-luga and primorsk, two out of three big oil export terminals on the western side of russia. Third being novorossisk, which, well ...
Ukraine might decide to go sanctions schmanctions at some point and truly bork russian exports for good.
At the very least russia needs to dedicate some resources to guard against careless smoking at the oil terminals, which is away from other uses ...
-
The gnome from hell threatens Chechen dissidents' relatives with government-executed vendetta (google translated article in the link):
Seems like symptoms of a shaky throne to me, though I don't know how regular such threats are over there.
-
On 12/31/2023 at 12:02 AM, Haiduk said:
By the way USSR conducted successful bombing campaing against Finland in 1944, forcing them to change the side.
Sorry Haiduk, but this is just plain wrong. That may have been Stalin's intent but ADD was not up to the task. The February bombings caused a small amount of damage only.
They did manage to completely demolish their own embassy though. The bricks of that building were recycled and used in student accommodaton buildings in the 50s. I spent a couple of years in that campus myself as well...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Helsinki_in_World_War_II
-
On 11/19/2023 at 4:53 PM, LongLeftFlank said:
Yeah, I have been wondering too whether the Russians might crack the lid on chemical weapons, if not to 'break' the stalemate, at least to amp up strain on the UA infantry and LOCs.
1. Purely militarily, would (rocket delivered*) agents be helpful in reducing a fixed position like Avdiivka? Could they kill and disrupt enough to allow Russian troops to occupy the salient without becoming debilitated themselves (well, give or take a few hundred more mobiks, yawn)?
2. Could they conduct more 'focused' attacks (and are these militarily useful, or is gas warfare still really a blunt instrument, only useful in saturation quantities across large areas)?
And by also tossing around some tear gas, WP and thermite, could they muddy things enough to just loudly deny deny deny it all, intending to control the critical real estate before an organised investigation, air and soil sampling, etc. can occur? (thinking here about the many reported incidents in Syria)
3. Politically, whether or not we could 'prove it', what could the West do in response that we're not doing already? Send NBC gear, fine. But it's not like we're in a position to send the UA chemical warheads.
...And short of them gassing civilians in quantity, would it be a casus belli for intervention? I personally doubt it. Just another folder for the war crimes file.
* aerial spray / crop duster delivery being assumed unavailable, unless large drones could somehow do it on a local basis
Step by step this war gets more unpleasant. CNN claims russians are now using tear gas:
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/19/europe/ukraine-soldiers-russia-frontlines-cmd-intl/index.html
While "only" tear gas, having to scramble for your mask and having to wear it hampers observation and defending your trench for sure.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Luckily this charming individual is no longer the chief of staff there, but the rot reached high in Moldova:
https://kyivindependent.com/moldova-ex-military-chief-gru/