Eddy
-
Posts
226 -
Joined
Posts posted by Eddy
-
-
And a Su25 shot down is being claimed too
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.bsky.social/post/3kronzlzdz22h
QuoteSoldiers of the 110th Mechanized Infantry Brigade shot down a Russian Su-25 in the Donetsk region.
I'm hoping that it indicates that SAM resupplies are arriving. Is the 110th Brigade the one that relieved the 47th when things went a bit wrong the other day? I can't remember.
-
1 hour ago, Ultradave said:
Worse than that, he could also immediately withdraw from NATO. Based on past statements, I think he'd have to be convinced to remain in NATO. I'm not sure who would be trying to do the convincing though.
Dave
The US Congress added an amendment to the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act requiring consent from 2/3rds of the Senators or an Act of Congress in order to leave NATO ( Congress passes bill to prevent the president from leaving NATO without approval (msn.com)
A President could sort of leave by not co-operating, I suppose.
-
Quick question on the US political process. Does the vote today mean that the Discharge Bill is no longer relevant? Or is that still hanging around in the background and can be triggered if the Aid bill doesn't pass?
-
19 minutes ago, Baneman said:
Russians can just as easily themselves halt production when the time is right if they want to effect rising gas prices during an election.
I had a thought over the weekend - so could Ukraine. Let's just say, hypothetically, the next US President was not supportive of Ukraine. Ukraine could attack Russian crude oil production and distribution, purely for self-defence reasons obvs, which would push up petrol/gas prices in the short/medium term, and thus affecting the popularity of said President, just in time for the mid-terms.
Admittedly, I am way out of my lane here, but it was an interesting thought experiment. Obviously, no one would ever be that calculating and devious and such a plan could horribly, horribly belly up.
-
21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Slightly less cynical is that countries which rely on Russian oil, in particular India, may be putting pressure on the Biden Admin to reign in Ukraine or face some sort of foreign policy consequences.
This is the bit I really don't understand. The Ukrainians are targeting refineries, which produce petrol/gas, kerosine, heavy fuels etc. The global oil price is for crude oil, not refined products, and it is global crude oil price that determines how expensive locally refined petrochemical products are, whether that be in the US, Europe, India or anywhere. The Ukrainians have not attacked crude oil production or distribution AFAIK, Hence I can't see how attacking refineries could push up crude oil prices. The present oil price rise is due to Opec+ cutting production and concerns over the Middle East.
If you blow up a steel plant it does not push up the price of iron ore.
It could well be I'm missing something. I'm happy to be educated because I just can't follow the logic,
-
1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:
So I agree, it should be on the list.
Yep, even more so after the horror of Bucha was revealed from what I've read.
-
Free e-book: War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World (Project MUSE - War in Ukraine (jhu.edu))
Found this e-book which is a collection of essays on the invasion (it's from John Hopkins University, released under a Creative Commons licence). The contents and authors are:
The Ukraine War and Global Order => Hal Brands
1 Ukraine, Russia, China, and the World => Stephen Kotkin
2 Why Putin Invaded Ukraine => Michael McFaul and Robert Person
3 Strategic Fanaticism: Vladimir Putin and Ukraine => Lawrence Freedman
4 The Failure to Deter: US Policy toward Ukraine and Russia from the End of the Cold War until February 24, 2022 =>
Michael Kimmage
5 How the War Will End => Anne ApplebaumPart ii: The Conflict
6 The Russia-Ukraine War: Military Operations and Battlefield Dynamics => Michael Kofman
7 Russian Military Resilience and Adaptation: Implications for the War in Ukraine and Beyond => Dara Massicot
8 Planning for the Worst: The Russia-Ukraine “Tiger Team” => Alexander Bick
9 US Strategy in Ukraine => Kori Schake
10 Nuclear Lessons and Dilemmas from the War in Ukraine => Francis J. Gavin
11 Fallacies of Strategic Thinking in the Ukraine War => Thomas G. Mahnken and Joshua BakerPart iii: Global Dimensions and Implications
12 The Ukraine War and Global Cleavages => Ashley J. Tellis
13 Putin’s Point of No Return => Andrea Kendall-Taylor
14 Accelerating Profound Changes Unseen in a Century: Chinese Assessments of and Responses to Russia’s Invasion
of Ukraine => Bonny Lin and Brian Hart
15 The European Union as a War Project: Five Pathways toward a Geopolitical Europe => Mark Leonard
16 Lose-Lose: The Economic Sanctions of the Russo-Ukrainian War => Daniel W. Drezner
17 America’s Global Role in the Shadow of the Ukraine Conflict => Peter D. Feaver and William InbodeIt's 300-odd pages long in total, but each chapter is it's own essay which should make it a little less daunting. Some distinguished names have contributed; Laurance Freedman, Anne Applebaum, Dara Massicot, Kofman.
I've only read the first few chapters but so far, so good.
-
Not sure if this has been posted already, but I found this an interesting read:
Here's the co-pilot summary of what is covered in the article
Quote-
Attritional vs Manoeuvre Wars: The article discusses the differences between attritional wars, which are force-centric and rely on industrial capacity to replace losses, and wars of manoeuvre, which are terrain-focused1.
-
Western Unpreparedness: It highlights the West’s lack of preparation for attritional wars, contrasting with historical preferences for short, decisive battles.
-
Economic and Industrial Factors: The importance of economies and industrial output in attritional wars is emphasized, noting the challenges Western economies face in rapidly expanding military production.
-
Doctrine and Training: The piece examines NATO and Soviet military doctrines, training, and the impact of attritional warfare on command structures and combat operations.
-
-
22 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Why did ISIL-K do this now?
One of the speakers posits that ISIL-K did this now because they have now regrouped in Afghanistan, basically why now? because now they have the strength, whereas previously they didn't. (The link is the correct position where the ex CIA operative is talking about it).
-
3 hours ago, The_Capt said:
Russia, is also suffering but is showing improvements in some disturbing areas, like ISR.
This article may explain an increase in Russian ISR:
Russian Shahed-136 With Camera, Cellular Modem Could Be A Big Problem For Ukraine (twz.com)
Co-pilot summary
Quote- Shahed-136 Modifications: The article discusses the latest Russian development of the Shahed-136 drone, which now includes a camera and cellular modem for real-time visual intelligence.
- Operational Impact: This upgrade could significantly enhance Russian reconnaissance capabilities by providing beyond-line-of-sight connectivity, a feature previously lacking1.
- Potential Weaknesses: Despite the advantages, the use of cellular data transmission could expose the drones to electronic warfare and cyber attacks.
- Strategic Implications: The modified Shahed-136 drones could offer real-time targeting information, potentially changing the dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine.
-
2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
This is why discharge petitions are very rare and even rarer that they pass. For the most part they are done to express specific ire at the House Speaker for not taking action on something rather than it being a viable means of bypassing the Speaker.
Steve
Yep, I kind of equated it to a private members bill in the UK. More a way of highlighting something than actually getting a bill through. Not exactly the same but hopefully you get my gist.
The problem, I'm guessing, is that even though it expresses ire with the current speaker there is not a lot that can change given the divisions the ousting of the previous speaker exposed. Well, on top of the other problems like linking it to the border, Gaza etc.
This isn't going to happen, is it?
-
12 minutes ago, ASL Veteran said:
Who is sponsoring the discharge petition? If it's a Democrat I wouldn't put too much into that - it's possible it could go through, but every Republican who pushes this forward is basically torpedoing the speaker's authority and he would then become ineffective at moving future legislation going forward (the Speaker of the House must be able to get his caucus to agree to different things to pass legislation and if his authority is undermined then he would be ineffective). So that basically means the Republicans would need to find a new Speaker. I'm not sure how many Republicans want to go through that again just to pass this (as important as this is to some here, the US has a lot of big issues to tackle). Besides, none of us on this board know what's going on within the Republican caucus - the leadership likely already has a plan / agreement on what to do.
There are a lot of Democrats who will refuse to vote for this as well simply because they don't want to agree to anything that sends money to Israel. I haven't seen anyone talking / writing about this Discharge Petition and if nobody is talking about it then I doubt it has any legs - but we'll see. The votes might be there to pass it if the Speaker brings it to the floor, but just because the votes might there for regular order that doesn't mean that a Discharge Petition will succeed. Even if every Democrat signed it (and not every one will) you would basically have to get enough Republicans to sign on and then look for a new Speaker of the House.
Yes, after reading the article @billbindc posted I came to the conclusion that there are an awful lot of moving parts to this, probably too many. Too many other distractions/issues/platforms. This backs this up. Sadly, democracy is a messy business.
Thanks for taking the time to explain.
-
3 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:
The discharge petition for Representative Fitzpatrick's Bipartisan House Bill to strengthen borders and provide aid for Ukraine - among other things - is now listed by the House Clerk and gathering signatures:
https://clerk.house.gov/DischargePetition/2024031210?CongressNum=118Am I right in thinking that an normal majority (i.e. not 2/3rds) is needed for a discharge petition and all that a discharge petition means is that the Bill goes before congress? And then it needs another normal majority to be passed? Also does the Senate need to vote on it again?
Just trying to get my head around what the Speaker can do to put the kibosh on it.
-
1 minute ago, dan/california said:
Biden has somewhere between 2 and five billion in remaining presidential drawdown authority. Think of it as the final reserve of approved aid. Clearly he felt he had to use some of it
According to The Guardian/Reuters it's from cost savings in some contracts.
White House announces $300m stopgap military aid package for Ukraine | US military | The Guardian
-
11 minutes ago, Kinophile said:
Not exactly "cut", but definitely a latent and growing threat.
Instead of Russia cutting off UKR grain corridor UKR could start sinking RUS/proxy ships carrying stolen grain from Azov/Crimean ports.
Wouldn't that be a turning of the worm?
This article from H I Sutton is about two ships that had previously carried S300s back from Syria turning back from entering the Black Sea to go the long way round via the Baltic. Although not to do with grain exports per se, it does indicate Russian reluctance to carry presumably sensitive stuff through the Black Sea for fear of Ukrainian USV attack.
Vital Russian Supply Lines In Black Sea Cut By Ukrainian Drones - Naval News
-
General Zaluzhnyi's sabbatical was short lived. Got himself a nice easy gig
Valerii Zaluzhnyi: Ukraine appoints ex-army chief as UK ambassador - BBC News
-
33 minutes ago, squatter said:
Genuine question: why is RUS artillery more vulnerable supporting Kryki than any other sector of the front?
If a SPG is firing 40km from the front, what makes one 40kms more dangerous than the next?
In my limited understanding, the terrain on the right bank (Kherson city bank) has a higher elevation than the left bank which, I think, results in an advantage for the Ukrainian arty firing from there (on top of the logistical reasons outlined by Steve).
-
18 minutes ago, Ales Dvorak said:
Fellow forum readers, you only have one life (probably). Do not waste any of it reading this absolute bollocks.. I will summarise:
Premises:
- A minister went to HMS Clyde on a super secret mission, taking a reporter with him!
- The UK has a submarine called HMS Ambush that the minister visited
- The submarine had a tarp on it
- The UK has trained underwater bomb disposal divers
- Liz Truss said something
Conclusion: The UK blew up Nord Stream.
-
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.bsky.social/post/3klmt52fyau2i
Quote
️Czech President Petr Pavel revealed Munich that the Czech Republic has discovered 800.000 (!) shells for delivery to Ukraine, consisting of 500.000 155-mm caliber shells and 300.000 122-mm caliber shells.
https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/rus/news/2024/02/17/7179875/
Apparently, the Czechs have persuaded various countries to sell 155 shells. Someone just needs to pony up the money
-
30 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:
I was aware that the UK was broke by the end of the war.
UK was just about broke by mid '41. Forecasting at the time was that we would be broke sometime around Autumn '41. We ordered massive amounts of military equipment from the US, on top of the usual imports like oil, food etc, and then took on the French orders as well all prior to lend-lease. Lend-lease itself came in, from memory , March 41.
The debt that was owed, and paid back, was from early war, prior to lend-lease starting. A big war is just about the most expensive endeavour a country can undertake.
-
18 minutes ago, billbindc said:
Again, the war is a piece of domestic policy as much as it is foreign policy
Timothy Snyder described Stalin's Soviet Union in Bloodlands like this
QuoteIts [the Soviet Union's] foreign policy was always domestic policy, and its domestic policy was always foreign policy (pp74)
It struck me at the time of reading that described Putin's Russia just as well as Stalin's Soviet Union
-
17 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:
Article can be found here => The F-16 exceeded the expectations of Ukrainian pilots during the exercise. Interview with the pilot of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Phantom (holosameryky.com)
-
Democracy is wasted on some people.
Anyway, thanks for the reply and apols for shooting down the US politics rabbit hole
-
What a mess. Thanks for explaining.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Well, there was this report on GLSDB performing poorly and being discarded:
Have Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs Been 'Thrown Aside' By Ukraine? (twz.com)