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Cary

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Posts posted by Cary

  1. Originally posted by pad152:

    I always wondered what type of mutual defense exists for Asia, if China goes after Taiwan. Would Japan, South Korea, or the land of Oz get involved?

    Or would our Asian allies in the region just join the rest of the world and run to the U.N. and yell mommy make them stop! :rolleyes:

    I can't imagine they'd be foolish enough to bother -- the veto's been mainland China's since the mid '70s. A Japanese or Korean intervention to save Taiwan is about as likely as a European intervention to save Cuba or Puerto Rico from the United States.

    For us, it's the same problem of extended deterrence that we had in Europe, except that we don't have forces stationed in Taiwan.

    In the end, though, the big question is why China would feel the need to retake its "breakaway province" -- especially as Taiwan seems to laying golden eggs profusely on the Chinese mainland. The Middle Kingdom's been around a very long time; one suspects they figure Taiwan will recohere sooner or later.

    In general, I'd think Flashpoints: China are Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia (and Kazakhstan, etc.) more than Taiwan.

    Originally posted by Peter Cairns:

    It's not how hard you can hit it's how much you can take.....

    However you could argue that once you adopt a deterrent posture, that depends on people believeing you will act if necessary, that it filters down and ultimately increase your propensity to take action because " We need to maintain credibility"

    That was the line that Blair took about Nato and Kosovo, we had to act, not only because of what the Serbs were doing, but also to show that Nato was a force to be reckoned with.

    Funny issue... I suspect at some point we might learn that feeling the "need to maintain credibility" is a very good symptom of having few interests (and, in the end, very limited credibility) to begin with. If it is "how much you can take," the problem is that that quantity is dependent on real threat to interests. The USSR in WWII will "take" a lot more than the USSR in Cuba (as Castro found out).

    [ November 16, 2006, 08:30 PM: Message edited by: Cary ]

  2. Originally posted by Blashy:

    All of that would simply have delayed war.

    Everyone would have kept building up forces because the Nazy party was about expanding.

    And their lying about every invasion to the world since day one (czech, rhine, etc...) no one would have beleived them.

    They simply were not interested in "peace".

    Of course this raises the "what if" of the coup against Hitler. It'd be a pretty different world now if in 1944 Stauffenberg had been a suicide bomber, or if Hitler had been closer to Stauffenberg's bomb when it went off. It'd be even more different if the German military had done the smart thing and deposed Hitler in April 1940 or May 1941 -- the former being the "nearer run thing."
  3. Originally posted by fytinghellfish:

    </font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by nijis:

    What you need in Iraq, IMHO, is not so much smaller units and more FOBs but units that don't rotate out, like national army and police units or 19th century European colonial armies, for that matter. Individuals might come and go, but the institution remains. Every time a unit leaves, the new one has to learn afresh the AO's terrain, personalities, and a hundred other details about their environment. Plus, anecdotale evidence suggests new units moving into the area tend to shoot a lot more civilian motorists in the month or so it takes to settle in.

    Isn't that what they tried in Vietnam? </font>
  4. Originally posted by Ace Pilot:

    Steve posted the following here about modeling LOS/LOF.

    </font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Yes, LOS and LOF are a major concern, but they are not a major concern until we start programming. The ideal state (1:1 LOS/LOF) is the obvious goal for us to acheive. Since we can't acheive it, we will implement the next best possible solution. And that solution will be, more than anything else, hardware dependent.

    He later indicated that he would share the solution that they ultimately implemented. Maybe we can pester him into posting it. I think it will be one of the more interesting aspects of CMx2 - reconcilling 1:1 graphical representation of units with LOS/LOF that is not 1:1. </font>
  5. Originally posted by SSgt Viljuri:

    Hortlund wrote: </font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr /> Do not kid yourself about the usefulness of light infantry vs a modern army.

    If you are talking about mech heavy forces vs. light infantry, in depends entirely on territory.

    If engagement distances are only a few hundred meters at max, and usually much shorter, the mech heavy force will suffer considerable casualties, even if we wouldn't be talking about any FDF Jaeger Battalion v. A2-yellow scenario.

    ;) </font>

  6. Originally posted by Hortlund:

    </font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by Cary:

    </font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by Hortlund:

    Do not kid yourself about the usefulness of light infantry vs a modern army. The battle only looks equal because the modern army chooses to fight with one hand tied behind its back.

    Grozny? Kabul?

    I'll grant you, the Israelis may be in that treacherous middle zone: just enough to be ineffective. </font>

  7. Originally posted by Hortlund:

    Do not kid yourself about the usefulness of light infantry vs a modern army. The battle only looks equal because the modern army chooses to fight with one hand tied behind its back.

    Grozny? Kabul?

    I'll grant you, the Israelis may be in that treacherous middle zone: just restrained enough to be ineffective.

    But the purest of hearts and the loftiest of goals does not excuse one's guilt for starting an unsuccessful war.

    [ August 02, 2006, 08:45 AM: Message edited by: Cary ]

  8. Originally posted by Battlefront.com:

    Cary,

    </font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Kidnapping and selling children, tossing people out of heliocopters? Torture, rape, murder is not improved by a classy uniform or VTOL capabilities.

    In a world of absolutes, you'd be correct. Pretty much every nation on this planet today has some history of terrorism if you want to view it that way. The French attack on Greenpeace, British occupation of Northern Ireland, Switzerland's blind eye to money trails, Canada's problems in Somalia, UN having dictators represented in the Human Rights council, the US's wonderful trackrecord during the last 50 years of supporting pretty much any tyrant that sat on oil or stood in the way of the Soviets or Chinese gaining influence, etc., etc. In such a world view a few bad eggs means the whole hen house is a complete loss.

    .... snip....

    BTW, I heard an interesting perspective on Hamas that explained a lot in a way I had not heard before. The political wing was just about to make a deal with Fatah and Israel. Hamas' military wing, controlled by Demascus, did not see that in their best interests so they ordered the fighters out into the streets to do battle with the PA's security forces. When that didn't derail things enough they captured the first Israeli soldier. Israel, unfortunately, took the bait. Hezbollah has been trying to get Israel to attack Lebanon for a while now, so seeing how easy it was to get Israel to overreact they did the same. The sad thing about this is that the Paletinians, Lebanese, and Israelis are all paying the price for this idiotic struggle that will never, ever end unless violence is abandoned by all sides.

    Steve </font>

  9. Originally posted by c3k:

    Dear God!

    Are some of you SERIOUSLY equating hooded, video-porning thugs who decapitate their drugged and bound captives with sawing knives, swords, and power tools to be on par with the actions of various militaries?

    Debate terminology all you want, but let's keep a little focus on what differentiates the actions being talked about.

    Ken

    Kidnapping and selling children, tossing people out of heliocopters? Torture, rape, murder is not improved by a classy uniform or VTOL capabilities.

    It's just that some of these militaries have been a little shy about photography.

    [ August 01, 2006, 02:02 PM: Message edited by: Cary ]

  10. My experience of board wargames: the difference between Move-combat and Move-combat-move is huge. MoveA, MoveB,CombatA,MoveB may not be as big as allowing overruns, but it's still potentially significant.

    "I think" "in most cases" only "minor" effects
    -- a playtester's nightmare of a sentence.

    Perhaps HC's response will be "sure, sounds great." Fine. But it seems worth realizing the extent of the change you propose.

    [ July 31, 2006, 02:54 PM: Message edited by: Cary ]

  11. Originally posted by TaoJah:

    I agree with this proposal : you should be able to move and attack seperatly per unit in the understanding that all your movement is gone once you move.

    And I don't understand the logic of the people that are against it. You don't get more recon, you don't get more attacks, you can't attack from the same spot with more units then now...

    Exactly why does this change things so badly ?

    1) your proposal sounds different from the two other proposals out there -- nobody's been entirely clear about what they would like to change to: PzG's a good start, but the fact that SeaMonkey disagrees with Dougman4 over whether it changes game dynamics suggest that even the supporters of "later move or fire" disagree over exactly how to implement the change. (your proviso that "all your movement is gone once you move" suggests a similar internal confusion -- did you mean "all your movement is gone once you attack?"

    2) As to your specific proposal, I move up to Rostov with unit A, I move behind Rostov with unit B, finding an air unit. Then I forego an attack with unit A because unit B has given me extra information. This appears a subtle change in game mechanics. But "Subtle" changes can ripple through the whole game.

    Bottom line, your proposal gives the moving player the opportunity to perform more recon before conducting his attacks. This leads to less "fog of war" and more effective turns on the part of the initiative player.

    The game's already offense dominant, your suggestion only increases the effectiveness of the offense.

    [ July 31, 2006, 11:22 AM: Message edited by: Cary ]

  12. Originally posted by SeaMonkey:

    Just to add to the tactical argument of this feature. You could now perform bounding recon or overwatch which I believe is a valuable lesson applied even to today's combat formations.

    Yeah I know this is a grand strategic game, but aren't the best games the ones that capture the flavor of all the scales?

    Here you are contradicting Dougman's long and impassioned argument that later move or fire wouldn't change the game dynamics.

    As to your second point... no.

  13. Originally posted by John Kettler:

    Cary,

    From a variety of political perspectives and countries, here's the elephant in the strategic corner, an elephant of which most people know nothing.

    Here's part of it

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/GF04Ad07.html

    here's some more

    http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2003/9/23/171350.shtml

    This goes into matters in considerable detail

    http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/marxism/2005w07/msg00380.htm

    the energy angles

    http://www.wsws.org/articles/2005/apr2005/ind1-a12.shtml

    Venezuelan situation

    http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/2006/Feb/trinkunasFeb06.asp

    brief summary of the emerging alliance

    http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/1786.asp

    detailed analysis of the new Russian energy model

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/HG18Ag01.html

    the Russian-Venezuelan alliance (note date)

    http://www.antiwar.com/ips/marquez.php?articleid=3731

    This wraps things up neatly.

    http://www.olavodecarvalho.org/english/texts/communist_noose.htm

    Make no mistake. The alliance described is a very big deal, by just about any metric you choose to apply: energy and mineral resources, nuclear and conventional weapons, manpower, technology base, advanced energy tech, exotic weapons, etc., and is getting more powerful and assertive by the day.

    Regards,

    John Kettler

    John,

    Thank you, interesting stuff. The alignments these articles point out are quite significant, but I think we're too prone to forget that, even if we cling to alliances and rivalries, most other nations accept the aphorism: "no permanent allies, no permanent enemies, only interests." It is just a corollary to the even older aphorism: "the strong do what they will, the weak what they must."

    That said, many countries seem to be seeing it in their interest to rein in or deter the United States -- I remember it coming out in a discussion with a couple of Indian servicemen that their nuclear test in the early '90s had nothing to do with Pakistan, and everything to do with the lessons of GWI -- don't fight the U.S. without nukes, and consequently, don't believe that you can even be a regional power without nukes.

    The problem, of course, is that we, like Germany in 1900, may take these repeated alignments as systematic encirclement. At least in that case, the German belief that Russia, France, and Britain were conspiring against them did nothing but solidify the "conspiracy" -- certainly we know the story from the other side; the growing power of Germany simply made the defensive arrangements and cooperation necessary.

    Perhaps the neoconservative's scheme of the Global War on Terror is an attempt to slip this noose, if so they are subtler than I imagine. And certainly, I have to give the current administration credit for our recent accomodation with India over nuclear power and nuclear weapons (as well as hints of an accord with Russia over nuclear waste), though these moves can be criticized, they do help to synchronize our interests with these states to some degree.

    I think the bottom line, however, is that the United States likely confronts a choice: either a Bismarckian or a Wilhelmian foreign policy. You can probably see my preference.

  14. Originally posted by John Kettler:

    Particularly bearing mind that Syria is part of a powerful alliance--Russia, India, China, and Venezuela. Russia is no longer not broke but, as one oil analyst put it the other night, "drowning in money," allowing it to fund all sorts of advanced technical nastiness, rebuild and reequip its badly deteriorated military, and flex its muscles in ways subtle and not so. Putin's ever increasing tightening of control domestically and emphatic rejection of external complaints about his policies point, IMO, to a more interventionist Russia, and Syria has long been THE key Middle east ally to Russia.

    I have been hammering away at themes and variations of this issue for months

    here in thread after thread, and now, it seems,

    current events have made my argument for me.

    Regards,

    John Kettler

    Russia, India, China, and Venezuela? Huh?

    Russia's certainly doing the Russia thing, which is slowly and quietly returning to great power status, but I'm somewhat skeptical that you've got much of an alliance here.

    Agreed, Putin's a sharp operator, and certainly not to be trusted. But I suspect they have bigger fish to fry than Syria or Venezuela. And if they wanted to hurt the U.S., their best approach would be to attack the currency instead of pinpricking some MEU in Syria or, for that matter, Iraq or Afghanistan.

  15. Originally posted by LtCol West:

    Regarding US infantry squad firepower, I wonder if a difference in range, accuracy, and lethality is going to be modelled between a M-16A4 rifle and a M-4 carbine.

    The US Army is issuing M-4s, usually with Aimpoint reticles, as a standard infantry weapon while the Marines deferred to the M-16A4 rifle with 4X ACOG scopes. I think that all of the Army light infantry and Stryker formations have M-4s.

    The M-4 is very mobile in urban environments and for CQB. It is also very convient when mounted in vehicles. But the shorter barrel reduces muzzle velocity and there have been plenty documentation about reduced performance, especially at beyond 300 meters.

    Would this matter in game terms?

    I'd imagine this is a difference between firefight and tactical scale.
  16. Just to clarify: Rolend and Dougman, you both seem to be arguing for this change as a U/I enhancement so you get fewer "Doh!" moments when you click off a unit.

    I guess the only reason I'm cautious is that where and how units move is a game mechanic as well as a U/I feature -- units' behavior changes when you make the whole move-fire routine more forgiving. Not least, it seems, such a mechanic would allow three or more units to attack from a single space where only two could previously. Such a change is significant.

  17. I don't know MBT at all well -- you'll have to fill me in: do you think it had an "edge of the world problem" simulating company-scale engagements? Part of the problem, I might imagine, is that you should be getting battlefield effects from interactions occuring at beyond the front-line units- tactical range: counterbattery fire, "counter-C3I" fire, and the whole panoply of engagements that occur over the horizon but that might critically shape engagements of the company level or higher.

    I'm not sure if I've made clear what my concern might be, so I'll try to be more specific. I guess the question I might have is whether the 5km scale that you mention doesn't leave a significant amount out, basically because, arguably, there's a much tighter connection between the company and the division or corps in modern warfare than there was a half century ago. Because divisional assets can to the support of the company so much more easily now than 1/2 a century ago, essentially the battle area extends 20km back from the forward line of troops (in each direction....).

    Is this relevant? Perhaps not, but it may be difficult to achieve the "historical result" of an engagement between a company+ of M1A1s and a company of T84s without either a) accounting for whats going on 20 km back, or B) "fudging" the data.

    (One thing that suggests this might be in issue is the fact that the losses of Abrams and Bradleys in Desert Strom didn't seem to differ all that much: something else was going on than just good armor and good targeting). I may be misconceiving this fact, and perhaps this is a mis-guided concern, but it seems worth considering....

    [ July 27, 2006, 02:44 PM: Message edited by: Cary ]

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