AAR Terif (Axis) vs Avatar(Allies) LC-gambit turn 1 strategy

[Terif]

Allies got 200 UK, 1000 USA, 4000 Russia bonus mpps.

This game is to prove that the LC gambit T1 strategy doesnt work when axis player knows what he does

For further informations have a look at:

http://www.battlefront.com/discuss/ultimatebb.php?ubb=get_topic;f=18;t=003783;p=1

Ok, here the detailed AAR after the game is finished – Avatar surrendered when Paris had been conquered in August 1940 – the normal time frame against an aggressive french defence and UK nearly lost everything (despite Allies having luck above average) - like expected.

Axis turn 1:

Denmark attacked, polish army in the north destroyed, units operated west, subs raiding

Allies attack LC and occupy the 4 LC hexes.

Axis turn 2:

With my standard opening strategy I would have had 12 damage vs the french army SE of Brussel (only 80-90% chance to destroy it). Since I knew what was coming I dedided to improve the odds closer to 100%....i.e. operating Rundstedt west and placing army + AF in cities. So expected damage to the army is:

LC corps (extra supply ordered via port, i.e. transport + unload) 1 damage (river); army 2 damage (river); corps 1 (river); tank 3 (Brussel) + 3 AFs with 2 damage each. Even if they would take maximum damage of 4 in the intercepts, they still have 2 damage vs the army with the higher supply/command. So in summary it is 13 damage.

With this variant Poland needs in average 0.5 turns longer than with my standard strategy, but thats worth it to increase chances close to 100% in the west. With a more optimized strategy even 14 damage are possible, but this would delay Poland another turn – and thats not worth it...

French army (str. 9) SE of Brussel destroyed, Germany still had a corps and an AF as reserve (i.e. German forces did one point damage below average).

Another polish corps destroyed, Denmark is very lucky and still at str. 7 – most axis attacks did minimum damage until now.

Both UK AFs intercepting from London supported by Monti. Report shows UK disbanded 2 ships to buy him.

2 french corps move into LC and strengthen the line.

Axis turn 3:

Again not much damage in Denmark, so Germany decides to kill a french corps in LC instead. LC corps moves into the gap. 2 more polish ground units and the polish AF destroyed.

Axis turn 4:

Axis subs found in the Atlantic, UK cruiser damaged (2 ships, 2 carriers attacking – the french fleet moved towards Med and LC). Subs attack both carriers and do 3 damage each before they are sunk in the next turn.

German air busy with Denmark, so no kill in the west this turn. Denmark surrenders. Finally every single polish unit is destroyed, Warsaw captured and Poland surrendered.

Until now Allies had some luck with Denmark and Poland – they usually surrender one turn earlier, i.e. Paris would fall also one turn earlier – in the following turns luck was distributed more even.

Due to LC gambit and moving the Med units, Italy joins at the end of the turn. One turn earlier than Avatar expected and he is not prepared (southern France is open). Therefore we make a cease fire in Italy, so he has his extra turn and can establish his planed defence line.

Axis turn 5:

Allies DoW Iraq and UK occupies both oilfields.

Readiness: USA –14%, Russia 36%.

Germany buys 2 additional AFs with the Denmark/Poland plunder.

Following turns:

Now every turn at least 3 AFs can fly airstrikes while 1-2 AFs are reinforcing. UK AF in London forces intercepts whenever possible to use the anti-air bonus. Once they try to kill a german AF positioned in LC – without success. Since Germany only used 2 HQs they also only were able to bring 5 ground units into battle. Italian units filled the gaps.

A french cruiser is bombarding outside LC, 3 french ships in the Med together with the Med carrier and 4 UK ships are bombarding too. Italian Navy stays in its winter ports east of Rome...

After a while 2 UK carrier move towards LC, but Luftwaffe strikes first. Unfortunately they survive 3 airstrikes, but probably they had been repaired (subs damaged them both to str. 7). UK only was able to build one additional corps for France – all other mpps went most probably into the air war.

Since Germany killed 1-2 Korps/turn and UK couldnt provide ground units, Allies had to retreat from time to time to avoid breakthroughs.

Finally Germany reached the outskirts of Paris in July 1940 (2 hexes next to Paris conquered). Allies counterattack and kill one of the 2 german armies there, but only with an airstrike of an already damaged UK airfleet near London. That´s the expected opportunity: Germany kills the UK AF in the counterattack with direct airstrikes.

Meanwhile Allies disbanded 3 french ships to be able to afford enough corps for the defence. When Germany reached Paris, the italian fleet moved out of ports in the Med and sunk a british battleship.

In the following naval battle Italy lost 2 battleships, but UK also lost 2 ships, the Med carrier damaged and cut off by corps transports. Earlier in the war intelligence reported 2 further UK ships moving towards Alexandria – so they had no chance to escape any more too.

August 25, 1940:

Paris conquered and France surrenders. Allies did not evacuate despite Germany was already in the vicinity of Paris since 3 turns, had 2 armies next to it and 5 AFs in striking range. So no UK unit escaped, Brest and Bordeaux not occupied.

In the end UK had only 2 ships left (one of them damaged) near England, 2 nearly dead carriers and one AF in London + Monti. (the cut off ships in the Med were as good as lost...).

Iraq now only was a nice birthday present for Axis....plenty of time (USA-14%; Russia 36%) to prepare Barbarossa – or to do a Sealion (no UK defences left).

Avatar surrendered when France surrendered.

Conclusion:

This LC gambit turn 1 lite strategy is only a normal LC gambit with all its disadvantages, but without the advantages (it doesn´t give a good defence line behind the Rhine and Allies don´t get the plunder). It is extremely short term oriented (especially together with Iraq) and in the end it is only a huge disadvantage against a good and experienced axis player.

Nevertheless, like with the normal LC gambit it is possible to kill new/unexperienced/uncautious/extremely unlucky players with this strategy. But like against the normal LC gambit: some training and everyone can win against it without much problems – long term it is a sure winner for Axis, if they reach Paris.