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First Shot Hit Probability


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Following hit probabilities are maximum possible under ideal conditions with 35% average range estimation error (typical figure on firing ranges is 25%, so 35% includes some things that don't show up during practice and is 40% higher than training average):

1.

no trunnion cant (gun higher on one side, which throws round to side, impacts low velocity more than high and has greater impact at long range)

2.

target elevation same as gun (shooting at a target point below gun lowers hit %, above gun increases %, greater impact at close range)

3.

no wind (wind drift is long range problem)

4.

only errors are range estimation and some factors associated with gun (jump, gun sight misalignment, aim point is not center of mass, etc, which are long range concerns)

5.

stationary, fully exposed target in clear area

Panther 75

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97% at 500m, 65% at 750m, 35% at 1000m

Tiger E 88

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90% at 500m, 52% at 750m, 27% at 1000m

Nashorn 88

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98% at 500m, 72% at 750m, 41% at 1000m

PzKpfw IVH 75

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83% at 500m, 45% at 750m, 23% at 1000m

Sherman 75

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68% at 500m, 32% at 750m, 16% at 1000m

Following is difference between an elite and average crew firing Panther 75:

Elite (10% average range estimation error) 100% at 500m, 96% at 750m, 77% at 1000m

Average (25% avg. range estimation error)

99% at 500m, 78% at 750m, 47% at 1000m

Difference between elite and average crews is quite large at 1000m.

CM figures appear to be very conservative, and more so at 500m and for elite crews.

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