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pavel.k

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Posts posted by pavel.k

  1. 55 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

    Russian nukes has been a great excuse to do nothing for years and even now with Russian running drone-assisted genocide they serve as great excuse to do as little as possible.

    Iran having nukes will make a lot of people happy (but deeply concerned publicly), because it will make Iran untouchable and thus nothing can be done. It is great when nothing can be done, because then we have to do nothing!

    But maybe I'm too negative.

    Yes, from my personal view the nuclear threat from russia side was used by West much more than by russian propaganda - with great relief - we must do nothing to keep safe our citizens.

  2. 28 minutes ago, dan/california said:

    The news blackout makes good military sense, but bleep me it is crazy making. Game bone maybe? pretty please? sugar on top and an open ended pre order? We just pay you now and all you have to do is throw a bone a week?

    He wrote just "good news". No great, or fantastic or mind blowing, like we heard during Kupiansk offensive. So i would not expect any miracles.....but still hoping for 😁

  3. 52 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

    UKR soldier writes Russians are attcking on Davydiv Brid direction (their attacks started three days ago) and judging to his words in comment "I just don't want to tell all what I know", likely enemy has some success. 

    I hope main UKR forces regrouped for attack from another direction (Snihurivka?) and left just blocking force there.

  4. 10 minutes ago, Huba said:

    And here's an answer from Zelensky:

    Now I wonder if that was agreed somehow with at least some key members - I really hope it was. It's not going to happen while the hostilities are ongoing, but has to happen after. Having clear prospect of NATO membership makes UA negotiation position stronger IMO. I'm sure that PL will support the application.

    Are terrorist attacks on the applicant territory the reason to block application? There is no war, it is just SMO...

  5. 18 minutes ago, JonS said:

    you literally said nuclear war is the better option

    He didn't mean it literally.

    I am for the full NATO engagement in Ukraine since beginning of the invasion. Not doing it is a betrayal of western civilization and humanity. Negotiating with terrorists while letting them to execute attrocities is a road to hell. That is how i see it.

    Now you can switch me to ignore.

  6. 29 minutes ago, Huba said:

    The plot thickens. Either RU wanted to (crudely) convey a message, or just failed at destroying the cable, an SW - PL electric interconnector. Let's wait for the reaction, but either way  our gov won't be amused. 

     

    Russians usually screw up everything and have a very bad karma now. Is it possible they was using maps without gas pipes and blow up them accidentally? 😂

  7. 21 minutes ago, keas66 said:

    I am continually baffled by the Anti-American Paranoia that emerges from otherwise quite reasonable folks  in all manner of forums  and otherwise civilized countries - who generally owe the continued existence of their Countries ( historically )  in a large part due to the efforts of America .

    Yes, this anti-americanism is like a religion. It is widespread among all the educated-level an live-quality classes. And it is to a great benefit of totalitarian regimes. Is this the russian propaganda bigest masterpiece (ongoing for more than 20 years)?

  8. 16 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

     

    Interesting. There is a crazy theory going around that the Russians "might" actually "lose" the annexionation referendum in Kherson in order to justify a retreat across the Dnieper, and do so "honorably". You know, as if they are following the command of the people, rather than another gesture of "goodwill". 

    I find the theory interesting, and the fact that there is so limited participation might give some wings to the theory. Still, the problem with it is that then they should also techically retreat from all of the territories of the Oblast east of the Dnieper, in order to keep consistent (Althougth since when have the Russians care about coherence), which would put the AFU very close to Crimea, so thats highly unprobable.

    Unless, they also fail the referendum in Zaphorizie. Who knows, maybe the russians are about to try to finally descalate and are trying to save face. We give back Zaphorizie and Kherson, and pretty please, let us keep the Donbass. And the current mobilization and nuclear threats is just they using the good old "escalate to descalate" practice of old soviet thinking.

    Or maybe not. I personally think the contrary really, that escalation is far more likely, and i would not be surprised if this mobilization is not really thought to fight Ukranie, but rather wathever conventional force NATO throws at them in case they go ahead with the full declaration of war and probable release of strategic weaponry.

    Still, a curios theory, thats why I decided to post it here. Any thoughts? It would definitively be a 180 turn from what most of the world thought this was going to go.

     

    It came to my mind too that Putler can use referendums to retreat with "honor". But when mobilization was declared i refused this option.

  9. 1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

    In the future I hope that NATO appends its charter to allow forces to be deployed at the invitation of a country that believes it is at risk of being attacked by Russia.  Article 4 and 5 would apply to such cases.  That is the sort of thing that was not in place for February.

    Steve

     

    I hope it will implement soon, because seeing that terror and genocide almost over the fence and not being able to prevent it,  is killing me inside. Donating money to arm Ukraine is not helping me anymore.

  10. 47 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

    NATO will go to war, if there's no other option left. Apart from that I think your post is ill-informed and unfair. NATO responds, it doesn't provoke.

    Yes, i am uninformed, as Steve explain to me.
    But i would not call it provocation but prevention. And i think prevention is better than reaction, especialy if we are talking about nuclear tabu. As we see Russians understand to the force and not to the words.

  11. 15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    This is all very incorrect.  First, NATO, the US, and to some degree Europe tried to stop the invasion by making it clear to Putin that there would be massive consequences.  The US explicitly stated that if Putin invaded that the US would flood Ukraine with weapons.  Privately and publicly Putin was warned of dire economic sanctions, including being cut off from SWIFT.  This was a huge "red light", not a "green" or even "yellow" light.

    Putin chose to ignore all of this because, as we now understand, a) he thought he could win fast and painlessly, b) he thought there was far more reluctance within NATO countries to isolate Russia, and c) there were considerations for his actions that go way beyond Ukraine (regime stability, thoughts of legacy, hatred of Ukraine, etc.)

    NATO has no agreement with Ukraine, therefore it is not designed to protect it or any other nation from harm.  To station NATO "tripwire" forces in Ukraine without Ukraine having NATO membership would be problematic for sure.  It would also have complicated the whole concept of Article 4 and 5.  Individual member countries could have put in forces, but they would not necessarily have the backing of NATO if fired upon.

    The concern was that Putin would see any tripwire force as an act of aggression.  It would, in fact, "prove" that 20+ years of distorted, paranoid ramblings about NATO "aggression" were accurate.  So much so that putting tripwire forces in place might have caused Putin to attack instead of backing down.

    Nope, as imperfect as the NATO response might have been, overall it handled the situation correctly.

    In the future I hope that NATO appends its charter to allow forces to be deployed at the invitation of a country that believes it is at risk of being attacked by Russia.  Article 4 and 5 would apply to such cases.  That is the sort of thing that was not in place for February.

    Steve

     

    Then I am truly uninformed. Thanks for the explanation.

  12. Frankly i have poor feeling about NATO. It behave or at least looks like a scared bunch of politicians.
    NATO had a solid informations that Russia is going to invade Ukraine and yet it was declaring loudly no intervention. So it practically gave a green light to invasion. If it would demonstrate its power and will to fight, invasion would be probably canceled. They had several months to prepare for it.
    And now they are just waiting for tactical nukes to be launched by Russians. And if it will happen (i really hope that not but current NATO attitude is raising probability every day), they will start to debate what to do...
    Right now there should be flying B-52s and B-1s along the border from Baltics down to Turkey every day, SEAD strike packages should occasionally be locking SAM radars from behind the borders, NATO fleets cruising Turkey and Romanian waters in Black See and Ground forces beeing ready at borders to invade Belarus.
    These should be the backdrops of the ongoing war in Ukraine. Russians would be scared to make any bad move, Russian population would have fear from NATO finally for true reasons.
    Then i would be sure that NATO is able to protect Europe.  

  13. My previuos little crazy suggestion to infiltrate into Bryansk, Orel and Kursk had not any feedback understandably. 🙂
    But what about going to Troitske through Urazovo by taking this little piece of Russia federation? It is much shorter distance with good road.
    What would be Russia reaction? Would be Putler forced to begin general mobilization due this very little slice of taken territory or even use it as justification for use of tactical nuke?

    image.thumb.jpeg.745ae3785a20fcc624ebf2b6f87652f2.jpeg

  14. 46 minutes ago, Huba said:

    Solovyov's program. Guest openly says, even highlights, that they are in fact at war. He argues that RU should recognize existence of Ukrainian nation and negotiate peace ( not give back "liberated" territories though). I'm speechless:

     

    Millions of Russians just heard for the first time, that Ukraine can defeat them and it can lead to collapse of Russia Federation? It has to be a huge shock.

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