Taliessyn
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Posts posted by Taliessyn
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33 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
That's a possibility that's been nibbled at a few times in the last dozen pages. Stability is the common goal for all of these players, no matter how much power they want for themselves. It seems they understand that they risk everything if Russia goes into civil war mode, so nobody wants to push it too far. Not even Putin, which is probably why he settled on a very risky future instead of trying to fight this out. As we've pointed out since the start of this war, Putin's options to flee Russia suck and he knows it.
Steve
I think a useful metric to test this theory will be consequence. Putin has bowed and disposed of many an oligarch in his time, but it feels like something has definitely shifted in the power dynamic.
Soly looks positively restrained here:The test will be the weeks and months ahead I imagine - by all reasonable measure it should be relatively easy to effect vengeance against the mutineer.
It seems out of the realm of possibility that this can go unpunished - unless the Sword of Damocles isn’t hanging exactly where people expect.
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I have a fantastical left field theory that the objective of this “coup but not coup” was actually successful in its aims.
• What if the intention was to communicate very clearly the limits of Putins political power in a dramatic way - a succinct message to the man himself about the consequences of continuing the death spiral he is intent on steering Russia into?
• What if there actually was sufficiently widespread, embedded support - but no desire to affect the instability of a full blown transfer of power?
Supremely unlikely since the plotters would be in immense danger, but also an intriguing idea, and one that can be tested by watching Putins behaviour in the next few weeks. If it’s business as usual then that’s that, but if there is a slow rollback on some of the insanity?
Again, most probably complete fantasy, - but I have such delight in thinking of Putin being cowed and having to play some of the puppet he has turned others into for so long.
And nothing about this makes sense. Prig is a shrewd operator. He must know the danger he is in. Forever. -
5 hours ago, Kinophile said:
I've been looking for AutoCAD dwgs of the bridge for days, to no avail. Usually with a large infrastructure project like this you'll find studies and sometimes even the actual construction drawings. Engineering or Architectural journals will do an article on the thing, with some stripped down cross sections, plans, etc, maybe an interview with the Engineer/Architect.
With the Kerch - nothing. Nada.
Not a good sign at all when engineers attached to a project either 1) don't want to talk about it or 2) are not allowed to.
Still, there are enough photos from the construction that can give a good idea of how it was slapped together, e.g.:
Thats the railway span on the right.
Better over-head view of the railbed construction.
The above image gives a good sense of just how far apart the road & railway sections are. I assume the lower roadway in the above pic is just a construction access road, removed after completion.
Above gives your basic concrete &steel beam/platform construction.
Typical road section.
I think the reason there are no design resources is "by design"
Red an intersting article while looking into the bridge (from a while ago - during construction):
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russia-s-crimea-bridge-could-collapse-anytime/
One of the comments from the article: "Russian construction engineer Yury Sevenard expressed identical concerns about the geology, seismic activity, and extreme weather conditions. And in December 2016, Yury Medovar from Russia’s Academy of Sciences said that the bridge is being built without a proper design, since nobody wants to take responsibility for it."
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7 hours ago, dan/california said:
Just nationalize it, and then send him back to South Africa...
I can think of 14 other ways the U.S. government can make him a lot less wealthy if it sets it mind to it. Cutting off the electric vehicle subsidy for any car costing more than forty grand comes immediately to mind. Can we charge him with a Logan act violation while we are at it?
We don't want him back thanks. In fact we'll send you his conman of a father, Errol, so you can complete the set.
So discounting a full on nuclear response if one of the so called "Red Lines" are crossed (which seems more bluster than anything else) - how likely is it that Putin actually carries through with orchestrating a meltdown of Zaporizhzhya? Seems like he's been using it as a "hybrid" threat for a while now - but it also seems much more likely than an overt attack. Scorched earth or more bluster?
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3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Check out this BBC article about the cause of the bridge blast:
The basic tone is pretty good. It's saying "slow down a bit! Let's not immediately rush to accept Russia's official explanation", which is the first time I've seen that in the MSM. Kudos. However, the boat bomb theory is one of the easiest to rule out.
Seems like they grabbed one guy who had a different opinion, said "wow, that's so interesting!" and went to press without getting other opinions. Pretty sloppy reporting.
Steve
Long time player / lurker -
I watch SubBrief religiously on youtube, Aaron is a former submariner who has great knowledge about Navy matters - seems to think it was a barge with explosives. Nothing definitive here of course, and he probably has an ingrained bias towards a Naval explanation - but something more to throw into the pot:
(from comments: "it has been a long time but here is my take, the explosion was low yield , think ammonium nitrate-fuel oil (AN-FO). It is designed to push up rather than fragment the bridge, Lifting the section off of its supports. this explains the lack of visible damage, the burn on the top was the truck laden with ordinance.or something with bang potential and was a secondary , this explains the guard rails, large sparklers ect."
Also a Naval perspective on the Gas line sabotage:
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If you in the mood for an audiobook/ podcast series, I thoroughly enjoyed Dan Carlins 'Ghosts of the Ostfront"
He is an incredibly vivid storyteller.
http://www.dancarlin.com/product/hardcore-history-ghosts-of-the-ostfront-series/
Try his World War 1 series for free if you want to check him out.
http://www.dancarlin.com/product/hardcore-history-50-blueprint-for-armageddon-i/
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Hey Fry.
I got mine set up last night and its working great. I had a similar issue to you. Bascially solved it by manually copying the save file ( the first one without numbers ) into incoming saves in your battlefront folder in my documents ( my opponent started the game - if you start I believe its outgoing? ).
Then in CM helper add a game and point it to the save file that is now in either your outgoing or incoming save location.
In CM helper, right click the game and click - create dropbox. This should set up a dropbox folder for you named the same as the game.
Once that is done open the save in Combat mission and load it. Pick your forces and click done - which should generate a new save.
CM Helper at this point should copy the save to dropbox automagically and work as advertised from there on out.
Sorry if these instructions are rubbish. It is still early where I am and I needs more coffee so that the fuzzybrain stops.
If you still struggling PM my skype details and see if I can help get yours sorted. Provided time zones align and all that.
Cheers
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I'm also in South Africa. Cape Town.
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I'm keen. Targothrow@gmail.com
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Delving further into the realm of conspiracy, what if Wagner is not necessarily in exile, but in a convenient and “neutral” position in Belarus to serve as a “check” for the time being. A reminder?
Further, Luka is shrewd, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the co-operation between him and prig runs deeper. Wagner presence helps reinforce his political situation in Belarus. He graduates from “Junior partner” Is there an angle for Luka here?
Deep end for sure, but interesting hypotheticals. Not exactly occams razor I’ll admit, but so many opportunistic players who’s to say?