Anon052
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Posts posted by Anon052
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At the moment there are a lot of videos of russian warcrimes and executions of ukrainian POW emerging. Nothing new. But I think this could be some kind of new systemic directive. Any thoughts? Or could be just the fact that constant drone coverage makes it more obvious.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1761873688545120568
The unit in the second videos that does the mock executions calls themselves 'executioner" and publishes proudly their videos of warcrimes.
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There are talks that russia now uses a satellite guided missile-system similar to HIMARS with range up to 120 kms. Did anyone hear something? The surge in russian precision strikes on trains and similar targets way behind ukrainian lines points in that direction. If true it would be very bad news.
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3 hours ago, Lethaface said:
FWIW in the video and text this subject is addressed; I'd say the complexity of the operation was overestimated / bit of a myth.
According to a dive instructor interviewed in the video, who teaches people to dive at the depths involved (70-80m) in the Baltic sea, this is a complicated dive, but not 'overcomplicated' and well doable for experienced divers. It is his dayjob to train people to do this. He told he was laughing a bit when he heard the same things you post on the news after the attacks.
They mention minimum of ~50kg of explosive per charge. So a group of 5-6 experienced divers with professional diving equipment could in theory very well have done this from a small boat like that sailing boat.
One interesting bit also featured is that one harbour master in the area said that it was quite an achievement to do dives like that without anyone noticing (coastguards, navies).
According to the research German police have found traces of the same explosive (HMX) that was used for the attack on a table in the ship, which itself was located after info from the MIVD source. Phone numbers / e-mail addresses involved with hiring of the ship point to Ukrainian individuals.All in all I think it's safe to conclude that either someone really wanted to make it look like Ukraine did it, or Ukraine/Ukrainians did it.
The ship involved in the evidence could have well been the ship that did it, but could also be part of a larger effort or just a ruse to make it look like Ukrainians did it.
I read the newsarticle Seedorf posted that somehow claimed new kind of evidence surfaced but everything in there was identical to the investigative report that was published in germany more in depth roughly a month ago and was discussed here too. The german investigative report was very onesided and ignored a lot of evidence that pointed in russian direction and it failed to plausibly establish how the Andromeda could do the northsteam sabotage. The only new "fact" in the dutch article was that traces of the explosive HMX was found at the site of sabotage. I am no forensic expert but there are different reasons I would be highly sceptical of this fact. But even if true. HMX would be one of the most probable explosives that one would use for such a bombing by diver. And if the Andromeda was a false Flag, then it would be very easy for the perpetrator to plant the same kind of explosive that was used in the bombings.
You say the complexity of the operation was overestimated. Do you have any idea what kind of complexity is needed to do this kind of operation? I work in UXO,UXB, ERB disposal in the northsea, baltic sea and rivers. I work on specialised ships and with divers (most of them with navy background) that do exactly this kind of work that would be needed for the northstream sabotage.
The complexity of this operation is a LOT more than just being able to do the dive. The equipment needed just to do the simple dive ignoring all of the other specialised equipment: on the ships I work on this equipment is located in containers that are half as big as the Andromeda. All those gastanks alone do take a lot of room. You need a lot more of those for a deep sea diving suit/ hard-hat than you would for a simple diving suit.
The first problem the divers had to overcome is to find the pipelines and then the right locations for the bombing. This alone is a very big problem. To locate those you need a depth sonar or a submersible. Good luck instaling those on the Andromeda. In those depths it is pitch black. Those divers have to work completely blind. They are trained to do so but they still need instruction by those one the ship with exactly this kind of equipment that the Andromeda lacks. And on top of that they did this on the same day at three different locations. And they did the dive on a very instable plattform which means high chance of death.
Then there is the question of the explosives. The theory that was presented in the investigative report was that only a small amount was used. There exist seismic profiles of those explosions and those hint at a bigger amount of explosives used. It is not conclusive evidence but it points in another direction.
Not one of the divers I work with thinks its realistically possible to do the northstream sabotage from the Andromeda in a short amount of time.
There is more I could write but it is already late here I have to work very early tomorrow.
One thing I have to say. The reporting on northsteam really does remind me on the reporting in german media about MH17 after it happend. The media tried to be "neutral" but it was mostly pointing in ukrainian direction and sometimes it was just reciting russian propaganda. Even after Bellingcat could show exactly what BUK was used by which unit german media ignored this evidence. It was only after the dutch reports with conclusive evidence were published that the reporting did change.
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I found this article about the problems of NATO training of ukrainian troops very interesting.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/ukraine-russia-training-nato-west-military/
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3 hours ago, poesel said:
Quite the contrary. The documentary displays the facts as far as they are known to the public and refrains from presenting a conclusion. But it does list the options. That includes those that most of us probably dislike.
I watched the documentary and I find it really bad. In german I would say "tendenziös" the english meaning would be tendentiously. A lot of known information was not presented. If this was intentional or just bad research I can not say but especially the spiegel has lost a lot of journalistic credibility in recent years and had a pro russian tendency. Not long ago they did an article where their only source was a russian spy so they published direct russian propaganda and similar events.
They somehow forgot to mention in the documentary that Diana D. is a russian national, that wasn't born in Ukraine/crimea and only got an ukrainian passport in 2001. After she went to crimea she did a lot of pro russian activity. In the documentary she was portrayed as ukrainian and they found it not strange that she appeared in russia after the bombings.
And I don't know why they missed the seismic profiles of the explosions that clearly contradicts their assumption that only a small amount of explosives was used.
Some of the conclussions they draw there are not very logical. I would like to see how they picture the Andromeda doing the work on 4 pipelines in short amount of time on open sea. I work with specialised ships/ shipcrews that work in bomb disposal. The amount of specialised equipment needed to only work in depths of 5-10m with explosives is really high. I asked some of the divers if they think it was possible to do the work needed from Andromeda. They laughted in my face. Most of the divers have navy background......
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The symbolism is strong with this one. Exactly 2 month ago the wagner group started their rebellion/coup. So with russian fixation on dates I would assume along with videomaterial that cleary hints that this was ordered by the Putin/the Kremlin.
The reports state that both Utkin and Prigoshin were in the plane and their bodies got identified after the crash....
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A month ago there was heavy fighting at the Antonovsky Bridgehead. Since then I didn't hear any news from there. I am wondering what happend there. Am I correct to assume no news means that the ukrainians retreated?
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4 hours ago, Simcoe said:
Also, seems like there was a lot of footage of Russian lancet drones hitting air defense systems this past month. I wonder if the attacks on Kiev and attrition at the front are hampering their ability to provide AA cover.
With both of those in mind. How the hell do you get through a regenerating minefield and no AA cover?
There was a video that showed a loitering munition hit on an IRIS-T SLS mounted radar near the southern front.
My question to those more knowledgable than me. How many of those radars are in a single IRIS-T SLS system? One? Does the loss of the radar take the entire system out of the game?
I have read that the IRIS-T SLS proved to be very effective near the front in bakhmut earlier this year, where it took down several aircraft. How important do you think in the wider context is the loss of one system (there were 2 systems sent to ukraine at the moment I think)? Especially for the southern offensive. The positioning near the front means that it was used to cover the spearheads?
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If anyone had any doubts that russia is behind the destruction of Kakhovka Dam:
It was not the only dam they destroyed in the occupied southern regions. There seem to be clear strategy to flood the south to hinder the offensive. Most people have no Idea of the severity of the longterm consequences(past the flooding) for the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam alone. It completly ruins the argricultural economy of the south. This is a complete desaster. I can't find the right words.
This has to be one of the most effective scorched earth strategy in history.
The silence of UN and ICRC is damning. No international help from NGOs at the moment.
There HAS to be a western response.
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2 hours ago, dan/california said:
Is it just me, or does Lukashenko look rather less than well in this picture?
Perhaps he had a very special cup of tea?
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I hope this isn't true, this would be a major shift and very shortsighted:
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3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Video of busses related to forced deportations, which is on going act of genocide.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/1391o9h/berdyansk_today_a_lot_of_evacuation_buses/
Steve
Exactly. A shiver runs down my spine with these kind of acts even more than any individual case of torture, rape and execution ever could. What I don't understand that there is not more international outrage and pressure. When this happend inKherson there was practicly no international reaction. I did not read about it in any detail in german media.
I fear to imagine what happens to those people. Does any one has information on what happened to those in Kherson?
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Just now, Beleg85 said:
Video reortedly seems to be taken last year (didn't see it, enough sick things around). Pro-wagnerite Z channels seem pretty openly distributing it...odd. Lately another video with beheaded bodies (perhaps postmortem) lying around transporter leaked, as well as another with skull on some tree. May be purpose terror tactics.
Yeah I saw this too. Not only were the heads cut of but hands were too. Comments were suggesting that they were international legion und they cut of hands and heads to make identification impossible.
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A warning. At the moment there is a video circulating social media that show the gruesome beheading of an ukrainian prisoner of war with a knife. I have seen a lot but this is one of the most traumatizing videos I have ever seen. DO NOT WATCH.
I have no idea how anyone can do such things to another living being. I wouldn't even do it to my worst enemy. The culture that breeds such behavior is deeply sick. I really wish nato would do a lot more to end this bloodshed as quickly as possible. Not doing it hurts us a lot more than most are realising.
Worse, ordinary russians are celebrating this video.....
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A story on how some officers in the russian army treat their own female medics. What a disgrace. Hope this will seriously impede the flow of new medics into the army and be a factor that helps with a systemic collapse.
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13 minutes ago, akd said:
Part 2 (we actually saw part of this earlier with UKR tank and BMP catching Russians fleeing back down tree line):
Brutal. At the beginning there was a very close assault on the ukrainian trench. The combats only a few meters apart. It seems to have failed after one russian got shot and direkt artillery hit. But there is a cut. Seems to be that the russians got away?
Would be interessting to know how big the casulties where here. Later in the tank attack everything is blurred.
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There is a new story about the northstream sabotage in german Focus.
I did find the article only in german: https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/neue-spur-fuehrt-nach-russland-mit-greifarm-u-boot-steuerten-russische-militaerschiffe-nord-stream-pipelines-an_id_189278264.html
This new story is much more plausible then the sailing yacht story. The article states that on september 19 there were bigger maneuvers of the russian baltic fleet. It seems at least 3 russian ships (the article states that there could be 6 russian ships in all, all six ships were named in the article) used those maneuvers as cover to reach the location of the bombings and were active there. This activity was detected by different swedish and danish patrolships. The russian ships had specialised equipment like cranes and submersibles and there were espionage ships that covered the activity.
I myself work a lot in the port of Hamburg in explosive ordance disposal of ww2 ordnance from specialised ships. This yacht story seemed like a bad joke to me. I can't imagine how they handled the explosive from a yacht without a crane.
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35 minutes ago, poesel said:
FWIW the news about the NS explosions didn't make a big splash here in Germany. It was reported and clearly stated that we still don't know who was behind it. Even the rainbow press refrained from finger pointing. That is all.
It is still early and in social media it does look different lots of talking about "bad Ukraine". I don't know if I read the same articles, but there was a lot of subtile finger pointing to a pro-ukrainian-Group and connections to Kiev and lot of talking about no hints of false flag.
This seems to be typical of saboteurs to leave behind a business card. Yeah right.
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4 hours ago, fireship4 said:
Surely Chechnya would become iffy if he kicked the bucket...
and
Dear The War Zone, thank you for a picture on which we can base our future tracer mods, compensating of course for the camera exposure, which we will glean from metadata, and that right soon:
Video available in the article: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/incredible-video-of-soldier-in-ukrainian-trench-totally-unfazed-by-withering-fire
I was very sad to read on twitter, that a longer version of this clip excists where this brave soldier is killed later on. There was no link so I hope it is not true.
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36 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:
Damn, WWI just with assault rifles. Guy used like 3 weapons during encounter and it seems he eliminated 1 enemy certainly +2 probably, on top of a vehicle in the background. Rambo. It seems they tried to storm the trenches but missed him and were flanked
More Ukrainian brigades are being formed- 10 Feb. new 13th Jaeger Brigade started to be organized.
OMG. This is one of the most intense videos I have seen from the war. Not easy to see exactly what is going on. Is it russians storming the trenches (it seems so from the comments)? Where do you see a vehicle(which sec)? Everything is so fast, hard to see the details. The detonation at the start seems to be from a autocannon.
Hope the guys did survive and not that the the videofootage was collected from their bodies.
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This looks very bad for SpaceX and Musk:
It seems the russians use new drone jamming systems that work.
I just hope there will be enough pressure on SpaceX to revert this change. I don't know how important Starlink is for Ukraines drone war but it could seriously hamper Ukraine.
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2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:
Also notice that at the very end of the video, the guys lower their weapons and stop shooting at the drone. But the drone is not crashing at that moment. It's just starting to move away. If they were really trying to shoot it down, they'd keep firing as long as it remained in sight. It could be that they lower the rifles to reload of course.
That being said, could there be summary executions in the AFU? Yes I believe so. The video posted recently of the British volunteer returning from Ukraine said several of the foreign volunteers had been quick to start looting the moment they got the chance after a Russian missile attack.
And the time this Video was released is very suspicous. Just after Putin stating that the ukrainian army is executing their men for desertion.
This Video needs to be georeferenced, to see where it was taken.
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5 hours ago, chris talpas said:
Why the reluctance on Zelensky’s part to admit it was an accident and move on?
No one is blaming Ukraine, but continuing to say it isn’t theirs is doing them no favours.
The only thing that makes sense is that they (ukraine) genuinely believe that it was NOT their missile or at least their political leaders.
A ukrainian missile wouldn't need the same response from NATO than a russian one.
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21 minutes ago, paxromana said:
A Russian missile not hitting anything important ... Shock! Horror! Stop the Presses!
They tried to hit a nuclear power plant. I do not find this funny. We just can be glad they hit nothing important. This is a new level of escalation. I just hope the criminals will get everything they deserve.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by Anon052
Macron can't be re-lected. He is in his second term and in France there is a two-term limit. And the presidental elections are three years away....so this makes the rest of this analysis questionable.