Battle for Libya!

[SD Smack]

So currently I have seen a ZSU-23-4, a BMP-1, an early T-72, trucks with Dshks, trucks with ZU-23s and dudes wearing jeans and toting AKs all on CNN/FOX/etc......

now where else have i seen these before????

SPOILER FOLLOWS

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CMSF

But you guys already knew that, huh?

Steve-o

[LongLeftFlank]

Yes, airpower aside my guess is the Yanks are probably out of pocket other than SpecOps advisers / FACs.

That's why I suggested the French; they have a solid track record in Africa and know how to coordinate with local militias. They are also unlikely to overstay their welcome.

So what's the leanest AdT force I could airlift / sealift over to Benghazi (or Tobruk) that could reliably take down Gaddafi's brigade-sized force of T-72s, Shilkas and Grads? Once Gaddafi's heavy weapons are gone, (along with his air force which the Enterprise CAG could exterminate in 3 days), the better motivated rebels will make short work of his infantry.

Work with me here. Let's go shopping!

1. For the core force, my pick is the French Marines' light mech regiment (RICM). In addition to the Milans (jeep and ground mounted), their AMX-10 armoured cars combine a tank-killing 105mm punch with high mobility and low maintenance in the desert. They're eggshells with hammers, sure, but if they stand off in the desert they're likely to be pretty safe. I doubt Gaddafi's forces have much reliable ATGM.

2. For artillery support, those CAESAR wheeled 155mms might work but may be overkill -- I'd go with a couple of batteries of good old fashioned towed 120mm mortars. Easier resupply too.

3. For air support, unless Malta or Italy can be persuaded to host the French ALA, we're probably best leaning on the Enterprise CAG. So some US FACs are needed on the ground to coordinate. That would probably suit Uncle Sam anyway, to know what's going on firsthand.

Helos (Gazelles and Pumas) are tempting for tank killing and medevac, but create a huge incremental logistical headache. I'm assuming the battle is going to move several hundred miles fairly quickly (Benghazi to Tripoli) and can't be supported from a single base.

4. A reinforced battalion of combat engineers, able to perform a full range of tasks (including combat!) as the force advances towards Tripoli, and to provide essential services both for the French force and the rebels. Everything from mine clearing to restoring local utilities. These guys will likely have the most challenging job of all!

5. Logistical train, which per the above, needs to be fully mobile and able to pull its own security (this is bandit country). Probably heavily dependent on helicopter airlift flying in by night from either Sicily or ships offshore (maybe that's where the medevac is). Although Gaddafi has Exocets and the like.

OK, that's my force. I claim I can be boots on the ground in a week.

What am I leaving out (lots of course)? What would you bring? Bring it!

[SD Smack]

LLF....

Good force selections. Obviously you would be facing older Russian technology (BMP-1/T-55) but would you face any kind of unconvientional forces (I would think yes but thats just me) I honestly have been out of the loop when it comes to this crisis.

So what would be a good OPFOR for LLFs forces (or whatever BLUEFOR you decide to go with!)

Steve-o

[LUCASWILLEN05]

I think it would depend on what kind of operation was under way If a limited operation to protect Benghazi and stop Gaddafi's army cold then perhaps a Marine Amphibious Brigade from the Americans working with French or NATO reinforcements coming in later. You might have to start with the US Marines as they are closest to the theater of operations.

If a more extensive operation aimed at regime change I am sure the US would be able to deploy heavy armoured units from Europe of CONUS if a couple of divisions were required. Alternatively or in addition one of the Marine Divisions landing near Tripoli should be able to do the job pretty quickly. The heavy armour is just to make things quicker or if things go wrong.

Additional air support can be flown from Spain, France and Italy. Or you could deplloy a couple more carriers.

[LongLeftFlank]

What's floating offshore now? Is there a Marine combat unit on the Kearsarge?

Another source of heavy armour is the Egyptians. But as we've discussed previously the Libyan rebels would look askance at them - they would definitely need to leave promptly upon victory.

[Damian90]

If a more extensive operation aimed at regime change I am sure the US would be able to deploy heavy armoured units from Europe of CONUS if a couple of divisions were required.

Nope, POMCUS magazines are getting empty, there are only two armor battalions with MBT's and IFV's in Germany, while whole heavy component of US.Army is getting back to CONUS, the only POMCUS magazines that will have heavy equipment will be one in South Korea and one in Kuwait or Saudi Arabia.

In simpler words, HBCT's and Heavy Armor-Mechnized Divisions are getting back to US, not to mention of tons of heavy equipment not used by any unit. So they can send HBCT's from CONUS anyway.

But in reality nothing such will happen and Ghadaffi is allready a winner.

[LongLeftFlank]

Sadly, you're right. Wouldn't take much to tip the balance though.

Chadian militias handed Gaddafi's ass to him in the 1980s using US-supplied TOW launchers on Toyota 4x4s - they could also move faster than the T55 turrets could traverse.

Gaddafi's son's praetorian brigade has matching uniforms and a better paint job on their vehicles but strip away or checkmate that heavy firepower and they're no more combat effective than the rebs -- less, probably.

The rebels could even live with the fixed wing threat (which looks pretty inaccurate) if they could just gain a ranged AT capability.

[LongLeftFlank]

And that's why I advised against heavy mech; it just takes too long to deploy and sustain. Sure it's the "safe" thing to send per the Powell doctrine but in the absence of time a light force with robust AT capability should get the job done.

I just realized the 105mm Strykers would make a nice standin for the AMX-10s. Which NATO infantry most closely matches the French Marines? (where have all the French players gone btw - you'd think they would chime in).

[Damian90]

Gaddafi's son's praetorian brigade has matching uniforms and a better paint job on their vehicles but strip away or checkmate that heavy firepower and they're no more combat effective than the rebs -- less, probably.

This is not actually true, Ghadaffi's Army is very effective.

Let say this straight, rebels and their leaders are no better than him, they will loose and it is probably better situation than Ghaddafi being killed and some of these rebel leaders would take leadership.

It was mistake for west to take anyones side. Ghadaffi can do something, unpredictible when he will finally win.

[abneo3sierra]

What's floating offshore now? Is there a Marine combat unit on the Kearsarge?

Another source of heavy armour is the Egyptians. But as we've discussed previously the Libyan rebels would look askance at them - they would definitely need to leave promptly upon victory.

There is a Marine unit not too far offshore...enough to probably stop the Libyan army from winning, but probably not enough to make them lose.

[LongLeftFlank]

Dude, there you go again with the politics here. I don't really want to argue about whose side we should take, just how "we" might go about it if we did.

[LongLeftFlank]

This is not actually true, Ghadaffi's Army is very effective. win.

I suppose you're right inasmuch as using 125mm tank guns and direct fire BM21s to level rebel fighting positions from a safe distance has so far proved "effective" in the desert.

But we'll see just how much the Robed One's soldiers love him (or fear his son) when they have to move into Benghazi to root out the rebels (who know they will die if they lose) and bring those tanks into RPG / IED / car bomb range. That's an infantry fight and even highly motivated and trained Western armies find it hard to pull off. Fallujah. Grozny.

And trying to bomb/shell the city into submission won't work either, although I predict they try it once they get a first bloody nose. At which point I predict you will see enormous civilian suffering live on Al Jazeera and a heightened call for intervention. Sarajevo.

P.S. First target will be the drinking water supply for 1 million people.

Little kids will die first, of dehydration and dysentery, live on TV. God help them.

[LongLeftFlank]

Still think we'll somehow be able to turn a blind eye to that? I hqve a 4 year old and I tear up just thinking about it....

[abneo3sierra]

Still think we'll somehow be able to turn a blind eye to that? I hqve a 4 year old and I tear up just thinking about it....

I agree...I am quite surprised nothing has been done yet. As for your post above, I also agree...it is one thing using your army to fight lightly armed/unarmed mobs, and tribal fighters in Chad, quite another to bring it toe-to-toe with a western force...western armies would quite easily smash the Libyan army, our main problem has been against people who fight more like the rebels there are fighting...in Libya, those people would be on OUR side. A few mobile ATGM units, a way to knock out artillery..so that it may fire one round, but is destroyed before it can fire a second...this starts to play games with the enemy army, makes them afraid to race up in their T-72s, which we showed in Iraq are unable to stand up to modern anti-tank armament, makes the artillery crews more concerned with staying alive themselves, rather than killing civilians...not to mention, it trickles down to the same effect mentioned with the rebels..if you can convince the Libyan side THEY will lose, they start thinking of things such as "war crimes trials" etc...it is a force multiplier...and we would only need a small amount of it...so does not require really a large armored force from the US, or from anybody...A US Marine contingent could air assault into the area, hold vital positions, control a beachhead, expand it inland quite rapidly, and quickly have the Libyan Army fighting in two directions, or, could just land in already held rebel territory, and help them hold on there. The latter is a more likely scenario because it gives more credence to the "we are helping them" line, whereas the former could be seen as an invasion....however, for strictly military goals, I would prefer the former.

[LongLeftFlank]

Good post. Gaddafi's army can't really hold a "front"; it seems more like a bunch of guys in pickups and jeeps (like the rebels) following a bunch of tanks and HW around. Seems like a single wave of well chosen air strikes could

seriously impair their mobility. Hell with the tanks; the repair shops and fuel bowsers. The desert aint any kinder to T72s than it is to M1s.

Thinking back to 1991 when Saddam sent that tank regiment across into Saudi. ISTR it was largely air that took them out. And that was 20 years ago!

[Boche]

+ Noble Mariner just ended so there has been significant presence in the straight.

maybe that could come into place.

[Damian90]

Thinking back to 1991 when Saddam sent that tank regiment across into Saudi. ISTR it was largely air that took them out. And that was 20 years ago!

Seems like urban legen, air force were ineffective largely in taking out armored targets in 1991, 1999 and 2003.

And yes I'm serious, despite whole that air superiority propaganda many good articles in military press and some books written in US states that air forces effectivenes is overestimated.

As for Loyalists and rebels, unfortunetly for rebels, loyalists have upperhand also in urban combat, they prooved it. NATO air strikes don't change situation much. Only land invasion can change something but, I think nobody want second Iraq or Afghanistan, so land invasion is highly unrealistic scenario.

[LongLeftFlank]

Haven't seen evidence of loyalist effectiveness in MOUT, so if you have any I'd be interested. Pummeling rebels from a distance in small towns and oil complexes is one thing; rooting them out of a built up area is another.

I just look at the photos; they're a real rag tag bunch. Little evidence of the kind of elan it would take to fight house to house against do-or-die opponents. I'm sure some of them are brave enough but guts alone isn't enough; would they die for the guys on their left and right? Do they have the discipline to do room clearing drill or proper overwatch moving dowm a street? What about when the chips are down, sniping is all around and that T72 has just erupted in flames cooking its crew alive? And the wounded aren't getting medevac or anything stronger than qat or raki? Is what the Leader is paying you worth that? I don't know the answer but I've seen nothing that says to me at least some of these guys are badass commandos....

[Damian90]

Haven't seen evidence of loyalist effectiveness in MOUT, so if you have any I'd be interested. Pummeling rebels from a distance in small towns and oil complexes is one thing; rooting them out of a built up area is another.

I don't know what are You calling small towns, as for Libyan standards the towns where fightings occured were rather standard sized.

I just look at the photos; they're a real rag tag bunch. Little evidence of the kind of elan it would take to fight house to house against do-or-die opponents. I'm sure some of them are brave enough but guts alone isn't enough; would they die for the guys on their left and right? Do they have the discipline to do room clearing drill or proper overwatch moving dowm a street? What about when the chips are down, sniping is all around and that T72 has just erupted in flames cooking its crew alive? And the wounded aren't getting medevac or anything stronger than qat or raki? Is what the Leader is paying you worth that? I don't know the answer but I've seen nothing that says to me at least some of these guys are badass commandos....

Only person that calls them "badass commandos" is You.

Still rebels are loosing and Ghadaffi's forces don't need to go inside bigger cities, they can only circle them and isolate + attacking outskirts will force rebels to spend ammo, after some time they will be forced to surrender.

[abneo3sierra]

The Libyan Army is not really an army, as a European or American would describe it. It is composed as of spring 2010:

11 Border Defense Zones

4 Security Zones

1 Presidential Guard Regiment

8 security battalions

3 SSM brigades

54 launchers total, ~400 Scud B

Scud C brigades deactivated (36 launchers, 100 missiles)

8 Armored Battalions

8 Mechanized Infantry Battalions

5 Infantry Battalions

5 Para-Commando Battalions

7 Air Defense Battalions

20 Artillery Batteries (probably 5-6 Artillery Battalions)

EQUIPMENT

MBT 300 T-72/62/55

RECON 120

APC/AIFV 400/400 BMP-1

ARTY 300 (T, SP, MRL, HM)

ARMY AVIATION

1 Observation Squadron SA316, AB-206 (1/5)

1 medium transport Squadron Mi-8/17 (20)

1 Heavy Transport Suqadron (Super Frelon) (10)

3 Anti-Tank Squadrons Mi-25/35 (40)

Note however that some of these units have gone over to the Rebel side, some have deserted, training levels are believed to be abysmal, and many mechanical items are in low supply.

A safe assumption is near half of this, in workable condition at any time. The army has not trained to fight "as an army" in quite awhile, which also makes a large difference.

[Dietrich]

air force were ineffective largely in taking out armored targets in 1991, 1999 and 2003.

"Ineffective largely"? So even in OIF, most of the LGBs, JDAMs, Mavericks and Hellfires either failed to seriously damage their targets or missed them entirely? :confused:

[abneo3sierra]

"Ineffective largely"? So even in OIF, most of the LGBs, JDAMs, Mavericks and Hellfires either failed to seriously damage their targets or missed them entirely? :confused:

damian is a tank crewman I think...there is ongoing debate between them and the Air Force over who is most effective....while air assault KNOWS, it really is us....

[Damian90]

"Ineffective largely"? So even in OIF, most of the LGBs, JDAMs, Mavericks and Hellfires either failed to seriously damage their targets or missed them entirely?

There is no problem with effectiveness of warheads, there is problem with finding targets.

I read some books written by guys being there, on the ground, I was also shocked that they confronted so many AFV's.

And this doesen't have anything to do with my interest in AFV's.

This is actually normal that using air forces in attacking AFV's is just waste of air forces capabilities and potential. Use them to attack roads, bridges etc.

While fighting with AFV's left to other AFV's, infantry and artillery.

Former Yugoslavia, NATO air forces were abale to destroy only 14 tanks from at least 200 used there by Serbs.

In 1991 also most tanks were destoryed by tanks and IFV's equipped with ATGM's.

This may be shocking for some people, but actually such is reality. I was also amazed how well is fooling fly boys.

[abneo3sierra]

There is no problem with effectiveness of warheads, there is problem with finding targets.

I read some books written by guys being there, on the ground, I was also shocked that they confronted so many AFV's.

And this doesen't have anything to do with my interest in AFV's.

This is actually normal that using air forces in attacking AFV's is just waste of air forces capabilities and potential. Use them to attack roads, bridges etc.

While fighting with AFV's left to other AFV's, infantry and artillery.

Former Yugoslavia, NATO air forces were abale to destroy only 14 tanks from at least 200 used there by Serbs.

In 1991 also most tanks were destoryed by tanks and IFV's equipped with ATGM's.

This may be shocking for some people, but actually such is reality. I was also amazed how well is fooling fly boys.

Joking aside, you are pretty correct...in general anyway, you cannot win a war from the air, you need people on the ground..air is a "neutralizing" force, but contrary to what most air power proponents would have you believe, that is about it...and that is not a bad thing...we can make decisions on the ground, much better than a fighter jock flashing over at 450kts...this is also why it is correct that *finding* the targets is the main problem for air assets. I cannot speak for Damien, but from an infantry perspective, it is often nerve-wracking when "friendly" air flies over, until you actually know for sure they are going after the bad guys...maybe stupid, but I do not trust entirely the judgment of the Air Force, no matter how well trained, how capable their sensors and weapons, I keep coming back to the fact they are flashing over awfully fast...and from the top...hey, I have black hair also

[Damian90]

If I would be an infantryman, I would rather want to have support from MBT's, IFV's or other AFV's and artillery than from fly boys.

Not to mention that in current conflicts tanks are even better for infantry support fighting with insurgents than air forces or artillery because they are more precise and do a lot less damage and non combatant casualties than a JDAM or artillery barage on some houses.

Still however stupid politicans don't see that. Best example? Netherlands, their MoD wan't to completely sold all tanks and left ground forces without them, argument is they need money for other purposes... like buying much more expensive planes?