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The importance of luck


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The force set off just before midday of the 28th February and by 1600 hours they were in sight of the farm. Then heavy fire was directed at them and shortly afterwards they were attacked by dive bombers. The effect of the enemy action reduced the strength of the squadron to nine tanks of which a whole troop of was held up in a wadi. The squadron leader, however, ordered his 1st Troop, commanded by Captain E D (Gin) Hollands, D.C.M., to press forward into the farm area. Holland's tank and the Coldstreams achieved this but then became pinned down. More German parachutists had landed and two German tanks were seen approaching from the next valley. Hollands radioed for assistance which came in the shape of another Churchill tank commanded by Second Lieutenant J C Renton. When orders came through to clear the pass at all costs. Two Churchills, commanded by Captain E D Hollands and Lieutenant J G Renton made a 1,500 yard dash across an exposed causeway which was covered by an 88mm gun. Firing at a range of about 200 yards this gun got off two rounds, and missed on both occasions, before it was charged by the tanks and the crew ran away.

Next followed a difficult climb up a steep and winding track more suited to goats. It was slow going with tight corners and a rocky surface to negotiate while working their way to the top. From the crest, with incredibly accurate fire, they destroyed the two approaching tanks, two anti-tank guns and all the enemy's transport. A s dusk was falling and Hollands and Renton were ordered to rejoin their squadron. On the journey back the leading tank stalled and had to be given a tow start - not an easy operation at the best of times. Before rejoining their squadron, Hollands, Renton and their crews, rescued badly wounded crewmen from a knocked out Churchill.

arguably the 88 was the only lucky bit but

During the operation, there being no need for A/P shells, a considerable amount of 6-pdr HE ammo was expended. Of particular interest, on 10th April fire from Churchills BESAs successfully downed a Messerschmitt 110 - the first (and possibly the only) occasion that fire from turret mounted guns had accomplished this feat. The pilot baled out landing almost on top of one of 'B' Squadron's tanks.

Two of B Squadron's personnel had been hurt while under attack from the Luftwaffe. Both incidents were the result of a once-in-a-million happenstance. Driver "Paddy" Hember had his right arm broken when a shell had hit exactly on the tip of one of the conical bolts, affixing the appliqué armour, propelling it into the driver's compartment As usual, when fighting in the mountains, the 6-pdrs were loaded with HE. By chance, a shell from an attacking Messerschmitt went right up the gun's barrel, causing it to fire - the operator (his name eludes me) suffered a broken left shoulder when he was in the way of its recoil.

You can read it here - and the benefits of a go anywhere tank:

http://www.northirishhorse.net/articles/13-4.html

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I'd like to re-state that the recent thread about game-killing immobilisation in the CMx2 Forum, and the original thread started by me in the CM:BB forum - made clear, rather repetitively, I thought, that the realism or otherwise of some kinds of luck were irrelevant to the game-design issue at, er, issue.

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I am not having a go at you Paul. I have often said here and WeBoB that players under-rate luck as it applies to real war and to the game.

My pet hate is people who design symmetrical maps or play mirrored and insist that it is "fairer". Somehow the desire to make the game more chesslike is innate in some people and despite a lot of evidence that the Germans have greater weapons, greater purchase options, and cheapness they insist a game will be equal.

Incidentally even buying something as simple as a German infantry gun could result in one battle the gun having 10HC, and the next person zero HC on purchasing the same unit. And despite some people telling me that having 10 more HE shells is fair enough I think they are talking ballocks in terms of tactical usefulness of said gun.

And then Lady Luck will affect kills etc. And believe it or not commanders are not equal either!!! : )

I play it for fun, and I play it quickly. Playing a single game slowly with deep analysis one might feel aggrieved that all your deep thought is brought to nought by "luck". The answer IMO is to play it quickly so that you have more games for Lady Luck to spread itself. Either that or change the game to revise Luck - and I know which option is more open to the individual player : )

Paul this is not aimed at you - I have anti-luck merchants in WeBoB. I also play more games than 99% of players - reasonably badly so that people are happy to continue playing me : )

BTW for extreme in game luck at the end of a long game I managed in the penultimate turn to get a first-time hit on a Churchill XI with a 5% shot. Churchill XI's are worth 355points so from defeat to victory in one shot - but thats life. : )

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I think this *was* anti 'me'. You've started two 'same themed' threads here - on the subject I just raised in CM x 2. BFC closed that thread, but you wanted to keep talking about it.

Chess vs 'crap-shoot' - I've expressed my opinion. Long, and hard. In those threads.

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Absolutely not you. If you can peruse WeBoB or probably search the Archive here you will find I have often said these things over the past 4 years. I cannot allow you to feel that important that I have deliberately gone after you personally rather than the subjects you raised are valid thoughts for any thoughtful gamer. : ) *

I do tend to be boring - witness my bocage threads. I am even more boring on luck as so many players think it was their superior generalship that has won the day. As for the quoted items I posted they are part of my ongoing campaign for people to realise that RL war is a very random business.

It is easy to forget after several years playing that not everyone who plays is a grog. I have sponsored 4 players in the last quarter and none of them is a WW2 grog. One is a Napoleonics grog with 200+ books! However as noobies are still coming into play CMx1 it is right that there is plenty of anecdote for them to read.

* BTW I was actually agreeing that bogging was not very nice in CMBB in that thread of yours. And I am sure you will find it in many many of my posts dating back over the years.

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Luck is important. I had a JPzIV/70 hit the front of a ISU122 causing no damage while the return round gave a partial pen, forcing the JPzs crew to bail (hit chance: 10%, kill chance: none). That happened over 1200m distance and saved my right flank (the ISU was on the left flank).

It is a game based on random numbers. Even though in the long run luck will be equally distributed a single battle usually does not have enough (30+) deciding incidents to eliminate luck.

But do not overestimate luck. If you always blame losing on bad luck, you might be a gambler that takes any chance without considering the involved risks. Remember that even in poker luck ain't everything.

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Even though in the long run luck will be equally distributed a single battle usually does not have enough (30+) deciding incidents to eliminate luck.

I like to believe that it is true .......

A good reason for my preference for large battles. I have great trouble understanding why one would play battles with a couple of tanks per side as any unfortunate incident makes a considerable difference to the out come. If you have a dozen tanks then generalship has a greater part to play. : )

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I like to believe that it is true .......

A good reason for my preference for large battles. I have great trouble understanding why one would play battles with a couple of tanks per side as any unfortunate incident makes a considerable difference to the out come. If you have a dozen tanks then generalship has a greater part to play. : )

Actually, I find the reverse to be true. Because it is a game, with no consequence whatsoever for failure, we tend to play a little too loosely, and my experience is the larger the force the more reckless we play.

While we would sweat every detail with only a couple of platoons and one tank to use, we would also not bat an eye over losing three tanks from a much larger pool if it meant locating the enemy's MLR.

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Being a very rare visitor to the CMSF forum, and an occasional visitor to CMBB, I thought it quite interesting to have the topics raised here. I can see why participants to the huge thread in CMSF might feel jaded (I sped-read some but not all of it) but I don't think that it should preclude the raising of interesting anecdotes here.

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Kingfish

I understand exactly what you are saying and agree the point. However it is a game for fun for a lot of people rather than a tool to recreate the real feel. It is also not a substitute chessboard either.

Your tank and platoon level sounds fine but my great fear of a bogging or being shot through a building which is apparently solid make me wary of investing time in tiny battles. The coarseness of the scenery and its effects to my mind make it unsuitable for small actions if you are seeking realism. I am not saying that just because an infantry unit has only unit fire power one target at a time that this is a fatal flaw just that with unrealistic buildings and blocky terrain it should be played at a more numerous unit level.

The increasing size of battlefields in each iteration of CM suggests that. The ability to purchase battalions suggests that bigger games are the better option.

PS test playing tomorrow!

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Feel free to modify as you see fit. My HD died last weekend and with it went everything I worked on and/or saved for the last 4 years. Those scenarios are now yours.

Disaster! I've enjoyed your efforts hugely Kingfish, are you planning on rebuilding the rig so you can keep on with the work?

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I'm back up and running, sorta, but problems with the sound card means the rig goes back in the shop yet again.

The loss of the scenarios is really not that big a deal. Its only a game, IMO.

What really slapped me was the 4 years of family pictures now locked in a small metal box I can't access. The local geek tells me there are places to send it to retrieve the data, but expect to pay thru the nose. Not in the cards at this time.

How many times I told myself I'd backup the data, how many times I put it off for another day...

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My pet hate is people who design symmetrical maps or play mirrored and insist that it is "fairer". Somehow the desire to make the game more chesslike is innate in some people and despite a lot of evidence that the Germans have greater weapons, greater purchase options, and cheapness they insist a game will be equal.

Well I'm one of those people. I like it when the odds are even, chesslike, everything else is up to skill and luck. Lately me and my PBME-mate have had a hard time with Shock Force (trying to get some sort of balance in TO&E). Eagerly waiting for the CM Normandy game as our saviour...

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I bought a small program for not a lot of money and it recovered most of my family pics. The trouble is I cannot remember what the program was called ....

Try a free Linux distro, anything that can boot from a CD. I've saved a few unreadble HD's (according to Win XP) with PC Linux OS for instance.

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Playing a single game slowly with deep analysis one might feel aggrieved that all your deep thought is brought to nought by "luck".

then again there are fellows who take statistical inevitability as just random luck. or guys who justify simulation of feature X by realism of having X take place, even if directly related, possibly far more important, features Y and Z are not simulated at all.

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Clearly, there is a luck factor programmed into determing combat results, friendly fire and accidents. Most evident to AI players who are doing exceptionally well. Also comes into effect with computer experience bonus (although with CEBs those enemy conscripts, greens and regular troops can frequently outshine the best of my troops). Over time, I have sustained some really improbable casualties mostly lucky kills against highly skilled leaders. Once in a while I have good luck while firing from tanks on the move, or getting a keyhole shot throough teh corner of a building. My tendancy is to notice the bad luck more than the good. There are a number of ways that intuitive actions influence luck. Best example is in aircraft attacks on armor. By closing with the enemy on the ground, it's not uncommon to have less experienced pilots bomb their own, while more experienced pilots will hold fire while executing their limited number of strafe/bomb runs.

The "it must suck to be him" rule is a constant in combat, and an all-too-often experience in CM play. Oh yeah, the luck often comes into play during closing seconds of a turn. "Tsh happens" in CM as often as not as on the battlefield.

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