Russia 2015 - The Strongest Muslim Military Power

[undead reindeer cavalry]

i somehow had missed this and was a bit surprised when i read it in a Finnish military analysis.

by 2015 the majority of conscripts in Russia will be Muslim.

so how many decades does it take for Muslims to creep up the chain of command? in 2050 half of the generalship is Muslim?

what a wonderful array of tongue-in-cheek hypothetical future wargame scenarios this allows.

[Sergei]

Actually that quote is from Paul Goble, it was just mentioned in the defence ministry's report. Only about 9 % of the young men called for army actually show up, so I wonder if Goble's prediction is based on actual conscript demographics or on conscription aged men's demographics? Either way it sounds quite surprising.

[FAI]

i somehow had missed this and was a bit surprised when i read it in a Finnish military analysis.

by 2015 the majority of conscripts in Russia will be Muslim.

so how many decades does it take for Muslims to creep up the chain of command? in 2050 half of the generalship is Muslim?

what a wonderful array of tongue-in-cheek hypothetical future wargame scenarios this allows.

Do you have a link ?

[JonS]

The other day I heard - or probably mis-heard - on the radio that Russia is going to an all voluntary/professional army.

[Stalins Organ]

Which will make it easier for good Moslems to join if someone says it's their holy duty.......

[gunnergoz]

Actually, I think that is one of the major reasons they want to convert to an all-volunteer, professional military. It will be more reliable, but at the same time can work for the "highest bidder" (the government, presumably) and will likely recruit mostly from the cities of the core Russian heartland. You need technical people in a modern army and they can get fewer of them from remote, less developed hinterlands. The cities generate all the political enthusiasm for the government (by its agitprop activities) and can so be counted upon to generate large numbers of enthusiastic recruits. And, as a bonus, most of these recruits will be - guess what - non-Muslims.

[Sergei]

Do you have a link ?

The Finnish Defence Ministry analysis that made the news here is here but it's available only in Finnish. Paul Goble's claims from 2006 can be read in this article. I still can't find anything about what those figures are based on, though.

[Tero]

Actually, I think that is one of the major reasons they want to convert to an all-volunteer, professional military. It will be more reliable, but at the same time can work for the "highest bidder" (the government, presumably) and will likely recruit mostly from the cities of the core Russian heartland. You need technical people in a modern army and they can get fewer of them from remote, less developed hinterlands. The cities generate all the political enthusiasm for the government (by its agitprop activities) and can so be counted upon to generate large numbers of enthusiastic recruits. And, as a bonus, most of these recruits will be - guess what - non-Muslims.

An added bonus is they would not have insurgents and guerillas trained in their equipment and doctrine in the more volatile border regions.

[Bigduke6]

Yeah, but how many of Russia's Muslims have ever been inside a mosque, prayed, learned even two words of Arabic, etc. etc.?

Russia is overwhelmingly secular and increasingly urbanized country. This is not a good breeding ground for Muslim fundamentalism. As the Goble article correctly points out, the single largest Muslim ethnicity in Russia - the Tartars - are by the standards of most of Islam not even believers. Mohammed named it as a no-no, and the Tartars do it: They eat pork, their women dress immodestly, no one attends the mosque, the official holy/rest day if there is one is on Sunday not Friday, school and law is secular, the Tartar language is dying if not dead already, and so on. Speaking generally, Russia's Tartar community could care less about the Kremlin stomping all over Muslim rights, what makes the Tartars mad is mostly Russian oligarch monopolizing Tartarstan's oil and gas reserves.

You draft or hire into the army kids from a community like that, you are not building a Moslem 5th column in the Russian army, you are if anything just giving work to the more violent or less-well-connected members of a provincial youth group.

As to Goble's reference to all those Caucausian "Moslems" living in Moscow, for the most part and again speaking very generally, they are Azeris involved somehow in the truck farming industry, or Tadjiks working as dirt labor in construction. Again, these ethnicities are so secular so as to be arguably Moslem only in name. The chances of the children of these immigrants, were the city of Moscow actually to allow them to be come residents - which at present it most xenophobically does not - of becoming fundamentalist Moslems within the ranks of the Russian army are so low as to be laughable. A kid brought up in an environment like that would be first and foremost a threat to a military employing him, as that kid would assume all authority is corrupt and the only people you can trust in the world are blood relatives. Which is a problem for the sergeants trying to make the recruits into soldiers, but hardly limited to the recruits whose parents sometime in the past originated in a technically Moslem community.

There are of course the Chechens and the Ingush, who relatively speaking respect Islam more than say the Azeris or the Tartars, but far more important have retained the tradition that a key aspect to the definition of being Chechen or Ingush, is resisting Russian culture. Which is not to say the Chechen and Ingush do a perfect job of it, for every angry youth willing to fight the Russians there are probably five or ten that just want to get on in life, and would only fight the Russians if the Russians did something nasty to said youth's extended family. And even there the recruiting problem is not as bad as one might expect, as the Chechens especially retain the tradition that a man must be a fighter, and if you go recruiting in a community like that you are going to get a useful percentage of young men willing to join up any army, just for the chance to shoot weapons and hopefully kill some one.

Indeed, during Russia's late war in Georgia they sent something like a battalion of ethnic Chechens to clear villages defended by Georgians, and the Chechens by all accounts went through the Georgians like Patton through the Ruhr valley. This is additional evidence, I would say, that Russia's "Muslim problem" may not be as dangerous as some might like it to be.

[Sergei]

You need technical people in a modern army and they can get fewer of them from remote, less developed hinterlands. The cities generate all the political enthusiasm for the government (by its agitprop activities) and can so be counted upon to generate large numbers of enthusiastic recruits. And, as a bonus, most of these recruits will be - guess what - non-Muslims.

How's that? There's millions of Muslims even in Moscow right now. It's not like all Russian Muslims are goat herders.

Besides, you're ignoring the fact that military service helps to unite the population - although in places like Russia where the majority uses excuses to avoid draft it doesn't quite work in that way. But if a military represents a minority, the majority is going to feel overwhelmingly hostile to it. It's the same as with a homogenous police force in a heterogenous society.

[Secondbrooks]

An added bonus is they would not have insurgents and guerillas trained in their equipment and doctrine in the more volatile border regions.

If i recall correctly (and info i've had is correct) Chechens didn't receive combat training in Red Army. They all were trained into support roles, like engineers and supply. And they didnt' receive firearms training of any kind, they didnt' have firearms given to them atall in army. So it isn't necessary to make professional army to evade then risks breeding insurgents, and professional army itself isn't capable to out-line insurgency. During Russia era this might have changed as slavic white guys are not interested in military duty but try to make everything to evade it, so less appealing ethnic minorities might have had change for firearms and combat training. What i've read and seen of russian military i'm not supprised evasion of draft, it's harsh place to be for people who has got used to better and doesn't have problem to say "screw you and you stupidities. I'm off". General problem in west as well.

Russia already should be professional army to great degree, i believe first estimation was 2008 or 2007. Still due some reasons they are not. I believe they haven't chosed yet what is best road for them to take and there is strong supporting sides for both conscritption and professional force and it's not certain which one in the end prevails. War in Georgia might change general attitude in ranks of those who makes the choosing. Besides most problem with-in Russias military service is harsh conditions of service. Rookies used as hookers, high suicidical rate (altought most might be murders and manslaughters actually), beathing (one guy lost his manly things because of this last year!), bad food, 'soldiers' mothers'-organisation to inform all this etc. All-voluntary force ain't much doing better for that if service conditions and reputation of Red Army are not getting better, they (general-staff) just ends up wondering from where the hell they manage to get all those recruits they need on annual basis.

[luderbamsen]

TBH, this smacks of scaremongering. Now that the Red (i.e. Communist) Menace has evaporated, someone's looking for a new bogeyman to get all riled up about. Seriously, I've read more believeable stories from John Kettler.

[Michael Emrys]

...the Chechens by all accounts went through the Georgians like Patton through the Ruhr valley.

You mean the Chechens avoided the Georgians altogether?

Patton's Third Army was not involved in the fighting in the Ruhr Valley. That was the First and Ninth Armies' show. Patton crossed the Rhine well to the south and ended the war in Czechoslovakia.

Michael

[Stalins Organ]

the single largest Muslim ethnicity in Russia - the Tartars - are by the standards of most of Islam not even believers. Mohammed named it as a no-no, and the Tartars do it: They eat pork, their women dress immodestly, no one attends the mosque, the official holy/rest day if there is one is on Sunday not Friday, school and law is secular, the Tartar language is dying if not dead already, and so on. Speaking generally, Russia's Tartar community could care less about the Kremlin stomping all over Muslim rights, what makes the Tartars mad is mostly Russian oligarch monopolizing Tartarstan's oil and gas reserves.

So they're prime territory to be bought back into the fold - there's nothing so devoted as the reformed sinner....

[gunnergoz]

How's that? There's millions of Muslims even in Moscow right now. It's not like all Russian Muslims are goat herders.

Besides, you're ignoring the fact that military service helps to unite the population - although in places like Russia where the majority uses excuses to avoid draft it doesn't quite work in that way. But if a military represents a minority, the majority is going to feel overwhelmingly hostile to it. It's the same as with a homogenous police force in a heterogenous society.

And how many of those urban Muslims are enthusiastic about Putin's nationalist regime? How many of them would be happy to join a professional military that would probably be used to put down their fellow Muslims in the border regions?

My point is simply that a non-conscript military can be far choosier about who it takes in and who it leaves out; and that the choices will reflect what the regime feels are in its best interest.

I don't have hard data to back this, unfortunately, just my gut feeling of what would happen.

Your second point about the military representing the minority is well taken - the Russians have not in recent history had to deal with a non-conscript military. They may find it not to their liking. The "pros" may be far more likely to pull the trigger on a demonstration than were the conscript tankers that yielded for Boris Yeltsin years ago. The mystique of the Red Army and its proletarian roots, its heart beating with that the ordinary worker - all that imagery is going to go away after the first few times that the "New Red Army" cracks down on civil protest.

[Sergei]

And how many of those urban Muslims are enthusiastic about Putin's nationalist regime? How many of them would be happy to join a professional military that would probably be used to put down their fellow Muslims in the border regions?

As in, Georgia? Or maybe Ukraine or Belarus? Poland, even Estonia?? Those are the ones that Moscow has had the most disagreements with lately.

And you're making the assumption that Russia's army has a choice between an all-Caucasian force or all-Caucasus force. It's not all too likely that they have that luxury, unless they scale down to the level where they equal Vatican in the amount of tank divisions.

Just playing the devil's advocate here, having no more references than you. But life would be dull if we knew what Russia was up to beforehand.

[Affentitten]

You mean the Chechens avoided the Georgians altogether?

Patton's Third Army was not involved in the fighting in the Ruhr Valley. That was the First and Ninth Armies' show. Patton crossed the Rhine well to the south and ended the war in Czechoslovakia.

Michael

AS well as making diversions to rescue his son.

[gunnergoz]

My comments are based upon the assumption that, if things get really dicey, the regime will fall back upon the Red Army to keep its rule and quell major unrest. Of course, by then, you are on the verge of civil war anyway. But my thinking is that if it happens to Russia, it will be a civil war fought along ethnic lines to some degree, and secondarily along economic ones. Just my guess, though - and not something I see happening any day soon.

[Affentitten]

And that would be perfect for Putin to unite all his people. Enemies within, enemies without....the great Stalinist recipe.

[Bigduke6]

Jeez, trip me up on a historical reference, how polite is that? I was on a roll.

Sigh.

Ok, please amend that to read:

"The Chechens went through the Georgians like Patton went across the Rhine at Nierstein - on the run, and well before the opposition knew what hit them"

You mean the Chechens avoided the Georgians altogether?

Patton's Third Army was not involved in the fighting in the Ruhr Valley. That was the First and Ninth Armies' show. Patton crossed the Rhine well to the south and ended the war in Czechoslovakia.

Michael

[Rob Ross]

Complete And Utter Bollocks

[gunnergoz]

Complete And Utter Bollocks

Sorry, my tin foil hat is in the shop getting re-lined and I find myself suddenly unable to read your mind like I usually can.

[Michael Emrys]

AS well as making diversions to rescue his son.

Son-in-law.

Michael

[Michael Emrys]

Jeez, trip me up on a historical reference...

Always glad to help.

:D:D

Michael