Offering for Big Al and Nupremal

[thetwo]

Hello Again.

I've been quiet lately, reading and watching. I'm impressed by the work you two have been putting into your mods and eagerly await your efforts.

Al, I'm happy to see that you are allowing for delayed activation of the US and USSR. That's rare and nice to see. It brought to mind another "primer" I started writing a couple months back, then dropped.

So, for you and Nupremal, I've put in the time to polish it up and get it ready. Even if it is of no use to you, it might be of intrest to those who play your mod, so they understand why delayed activation makes sense.

I hope these prove of some use.

[thetwo]

Part I

One thing that may be lost in playing the default scenario for Storm of Steel and many other wargames, is that both Germany and Japan had control over the pace of events. Ultimately an inept pattern of thinking they both fell into is what I call, inevitability.

Germany: Hitler had control of the European war and, while he was short on resources, an argument can be made that time was on his side. It is rare that I run into a wargamer or even a historian who can tell me what Roosevelt was hoping for in order to trigger the United States entry into the war. They think of what happened (old patterns) as inevitable too. Please recall the United States' splitting the Atlantic Ocean in half and the U.S. Navy helping to escort convoys to the U.K. At the halfway point the convoys would be transferred to the Royal Navy. Roosevelt was trying to generate a Lusitania event and wanted it badly, with the U.S. Navy as bait. Even when a U.S. warship was torpedoed, Roosevelt could not get the result he wanted. As far as the Soviet Union was concerned, Stalin didn't want war and was content to pull the strings of others. I call it the “indifference of size.” (Both the USSR and US were exemplars of this attitude.) At the time the Germans invaded in 1941, the Soviets had 32,000 tanks. (Interesting note: 1941 German production was 1 tank/day, Soviet was 30 tanks/day.) German invasion preparations included staging 15,000 railroad car loads to the frontier. This had to be noticed. Hitler had control of events, but believed the contest with the Soviets was inevitable. His own rhetoric told him so. He had time and and he blew it.

Japan: Here we have more evidence. Despite the published reports of what was happening in China, the American people were unmoved. This was not because the victims were Asian or because the perpetrators were Asian, as some have theorized. What was happening in Europe only registered in small communities as well. The U.S. could not be moved to war by the leaders alone, regardless of world events. Hence, the reason Roosevelt was projecting the U.S. Navy so provocatively into the Atlantic. Japan was fighting the China War for a decade and there was no meaningful response from anyone. Good evidence of control over the pace of events.

The Japanese, in my opinion, made the mistake, too, of thinking in terms of inevitability. Picture the events of December 1941, without their attacking any U.S. bases. No attack on the Philippines, Guam, Wake, Pearl Harbor. Can you imagine the frustrated rage in Washington? The American people's likely response? It's not our problem.

[thetwo]

Part II

From these foundations, can we project what would have happened, had the Axis powers behaved with more intelligence and restraint? I believe so.

We have extensive documentary evidence from the Soviet Union to support exactly what Stalin was thinking and his goals. One of the most interesting of which is The Mitrokhin Archive. A rare glimpse inside the KGB and how the Soviet leadership was thinking. Stalin did not see Hitler as a threat. Right up until the German invasion, the Soviets were suppliers of raw materials TO the Germans. In Stalin's mind the enemies of the Soviet Union were the United States and Great Britain. Germany could do as it wished and Stalin wanted Germany to succeed. Even if Germany completely dominated non-Soviet Europe, Stalin was unlikely to consider Germany a direct threat to the Soviet Union. Whether a German Empire built on warfare could have lived at peace is another question.

Nazi Europe. A German empire of Europe, with the British Isles occupied, would probably have resulted in a Cold War between German Europe on the one hand and the U.S. and the remnants of the British Empire on the other. This would be the result of the plain reality that the UK could not feed itself and the Germans could let them starve or allow food shipments in. If food shipments were allowed in, then no embargo against Germany could be airtight. In essence, the population of the UK would be held hostage.

This empire would have been shaky, but it could have endured several generations before it collapsed, in spite of the relatively low number of Germans. We have enough evidence to support this both from the example of the Soviet Union itself, and the number of collaborators the Germans were able to find in occupied countries. If the Germans were able to get the European economies humming again, their cronnies might have been in stronger positions, at least in the short term.

Stalin would have loved this kind of tense atmosphere. He liked playing puppetmaster. The West would have been so preoccupied with their own problems that he would have been left undisturbed. At least that is how he would have seen it. He also had so many agents infiltrated into the government and scientific agencies of the US and UK that he knew more about what was going on within them, than many people in those same organizations. Stalin also had at least one agent in Hitler's OKW nearly from the moment it was formed (We still don't know who it was.).

For the United States, there was a real possibility that the war would end before the American public awakened to the need for action. This was Roosevelt's frustration. There was nothing he could do about it and I am still amazed at how much he got away with. That's not counting his allowing British intelligence to operate in the U.S., including assassinations. The country would not be moved and The Greatest Generation almost slept through the war.

[thetwo]

Part III

What does all of this mean for in-game diplomacy, activations, and economics?

U.S.

When I've designed my own European scenarios, I've included annual budget increases that ramp up American defense spending every October. The U.S. public was immune to outside influences, but Roosevelt was clever about spreading Federal money around to congressional districts. This money funded infrastructure, tooling, and capacity enhancements as well as actual production to support Great Britain. Roosevelt was a savvy politician. So a 10% annual increase in readiness each year might be reasonable.

The trick is what will push the U.S. into war. If the designer opts for a Go/No Go on a Japanese attack, then he must allow for an alternative or plan for what happens if the U.S. never activates. That could have interesting repercussions all its own.

The Germans had some motive to attack U.S. naval ships, but were not stupid enough, or desperate enough to give Roosevelt the kind of incident he needed. Also there were no other direct American interests at risk in the Atlantic. We can consider a German inspired activation unlikely, unless Hitler's combination of Parkinson's, end-stage syphilis, and stupidity combine.

In the Southwest Pacific in December 1941, if the Japanese don't attack the U.S. the situation gets very confused. American ships would have been ordered to stand off and not get involved. Japanese ships would have been attacking British, French, Dutch, and Australian ships. The message traffic in and out of Pacific Fleet headquarters would have been informative. Some commanders would have wanted to engage, others wanting to pick up survivors. Some American ships would have been ordered into ports under attack to take off American citizens. A real mess. The possibility of a night action with "unidentified ships" would have been at least moderate. But as long U.S. territory wasn't attacked, it was not probable that the American public would rouse to war.

With that said, what triggers can be built in, to make a playable and enjoyable, reasonably accurate experience.

1. Surprise attack, maybe duplicating Taranto Raid script. Also scripts requiring U.S. to keep most fleet units in or near harbors, before the war, would seem applicable.

2. Allow Japan to avoid declaring war on U.S., but possibility, in first three months after declaring war on someone else of accidental "night naval engagement" that increases activation. For this to occur, U.S. naval forces would have to forward deployed, i.e. pushing the Japanese, just the way Roosevelt would do it.

3. Japanese invasion of Java and atrocities reported back to U.S. with only a week or two delay. Escaping survivors and victims both include American military and civilians. This replicates real events and news stories. They would not be enough to drive the country to war, but could nudge activation.

4. AP wire story out of Pearl Harbor of American cruiser being ordered by Japanese naval units not to pick up survivors of H.M.A.S. Canberra after it was sunk in action with Japanese fleet units. When U.S.S. Chicago tried to close and rescue the survivors it was fired upon by the Japanese. Frustration and anger among U.S. Navy. Allies furious at American abandonment of survivors. This would work well if U.S. units are crowding the Japanese. Could even write event so that Chicago was sunk as well.

5. American submarine attacked and believed sunk while training in "waters off Indonesia." Not a large activation amount, but still an uptick.

6. Japanese interference with or sinking of convoys to Russia. Not a large uptick each turn, but would be cumulative. Could generate atrocity stories if played up right in the press, too. Only works if Russia in war and some kind of special Lend Lease legislation is imagined that allows supplying it before U.S. entry.

With these and others, I think a designer can make a creditable effort on U.S. war entry.

[thetwo]

Part IV

U.S.S.R.

As the Germans learned, only after the 1941 invasion, the Soviet Communists were single-minded in churning out the tools of war. In combination with the size of the Soviet Union it made for a formidable foe. Not an unbeatable one, however. Field Marshal von Manstein was correct that the Soviet Union could, even with U.S. aid, be bled to death.

The U.S.S.R did not have foreign possessions, extensive trade, or the desire to project military power directly. None of the normal modes of activation apply. Even military buildups along its borders didn't get its attention historically. Stalin knew his country, its history with invaders, and he took a long view. In other words, an Asian mentality, rather than European.

To activate Stalin's realm you have to present him with a threat. There are two ways to do this.

If Stalin perceives a threat from the Main Adversary (U.S. and U.K.), if they are about to triumph over Germany, Stalin is much more likely to jump into the war against the U.S. and U.K., seizing Germany for himself in the process, than actually allying with Germany. If pushed he might ally with Germany, but it wouldn't be his first choice. Stalin was on his own side, first and foremost.

Germany as enemy was way down on his list of priorities. For him to perceive Germany as a threat, he'd have to see that Germany was dominant on the continent, secure from internal and external enemies in Europe, AND that Germany might ally with the WEST. That would have terrified Stalin.

No matter how you decide to manage Soviet entry, for good or ill, you are confronted with one truth, Stalin is the only opinion maker that matters. So, what would make his involvement so essential that if he didn't, his own survival would be at stake (or he would think it was)?

1. Outright invasion of Soviet territory. May or may not be a good idea. A single opponent invasion was historically a poor choice. Invasion makes more sense if it is attacked from both sides, however as a planned effort, to remove a dangerous foe.

2. Stalin would not like to have the Allies in possession of a post-war Germany. If the Allies were to launch an invasion of the continent and the USSR were not yet in the war, Stalin might jump in to grab what he could as fast as possible.

3. German possession of the Suez Canal would not, in and of itself, move the Soviets into belligerence, but would set the stage for some interesting possibilities. There would be a general anti-British, anti-French backlash amongst the Egyptian, Arab, Turk, Armenian, Kurdish, and Persian populations. With undercurrents of mutual hate and distrust amongst those groups. Then most of those populations overlap into the southern Soviet Union. In addition, the power vacuum left by the collapse of the British Egyptian Army, would give Stalin a priceless opportunity to seize Iran, at least. Iraq and Saudi Arabia might be quickly snapped up too. Warm water ports, long the Russian Imperial dream would be realized for no cost and the Main Adversary would be removed from the Soviet south western border. If the Germans moved past the Suez Canal, the Soviets would get very itchy.

4. If Germany is doing particularly well in Western Europe into 1941 and 1942, I can see Stalin starting stir up trouble with assassinations and some low-level insurrections in Eastern Europe. With the Nazis in charge it would be difficult to fund and supply, but he might try it. It wouldn't be his people dying. Supply might run through Yugoslavia or Turkey. All this might anger the Germans, but what can they do? Go to war?

5. Stalin gets bored and tries to grab off a bit more of Finland. Self-explanatory and not too bright, but could have happened.

6. Stalin fears that Germany is generating a following in its conquered countries, solidifying its power. Hard to see happening. There just weren't enough Germans. Maybe if there were enough other stress factors in the picture. Probably earliest this could have happened would have been 1943.

7. Germany might acquire an atomic bomb and is not threatened. This would be terrible scenario for Stalin. An unthreatened Germany with an atomic bomb, Stalin might risk everything to beat them down before they can get it.

8. A German attack into Turkey or Turkey joining the Axis. Any opening the Soviets could use to claim the Bhosporus, they were likely to take. Whether they would go to war or not, could be argued. I'm am absolutely sure they would not want a potential enemy to control those straights.

A common thread in the Soviet scenarios is that they generally don't generate a reaction quickly, except for a direct invasion, the middle east, or perhaps the atomic bomb. These feel right. Stalin was not going to be quick to jump in and risk it all.

[Big Al]

The problem is with so many open windows of possibilties it throws WW2 off too much. "The more complex you make the machine the easier it is to break..."

I agree if the Japs just attacked NEI there is no way the US would come into the war.

If Hitler had NOT attacked the USSR he would he probably beating UK to a pulp with focus on killing their economy.

The US would not have entered for a long time and the USSR would not have cared.

But this is a wargame and we must maintain balances. In my game with historical advancement the US should come in about mid 1942. The USSR 1943 is when their troops would be reorganized and prepared to attack. If I dont do either of these the game will draw out into a perfect scenario for the Axis.

Now when this scenario is completed I might make a Z-plan scenario that starts in 1944 with the planned German navy and the war winning plan placed in effect.

Or a 1946 scenerio of the Z-plan where Germany has defeated her enemies and its now the US, Japan, Germany, and the USSR.

But as for WW2 you need to have functionality to make it work. I think what I did give ample room for the Germans to pursue many strategies from Sealion to Gibralter to a 1942 Barbarossa.

[thetwo]

Yeah Al, I agree. What I was offering was some ideas for trigger scripts and some background for players. Not trying to tell you how to do it. Not at all.

Your alternate Z-plan scenario could work well if you want to go for commerce warfare early too. You wouldn't have to go for a late date for the German Navy to be effective. I did this with one of my European scenarios and calculated a somewhat later and weaker British response in its building programme to counter it.

It's yours Al, do what you want.

[Nupremal]

Interesting ideas - thanks. I still feel I wish to go with the more standard inevitability scenario. There is some evidence of this too.