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Damascus, "Should you touch it with a barge pole".


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I'm not sure where to post these news stories and conjecture on backstory as related to CMSF, and Austin Bay has a good post at Strategy Page worth a look;

From "The Beirut Spring" to Toppling Assad

by Austin Bay

January 17, 2006

Two events sparked Lebanon's 2005 "Beirut spring," that "street revolution" of protests and pro-democracy demonstrations which ultimately forced Syria to end its two-decade-long military occupation of Lebanon.

The first revolutionary fire-starter was Iraq's historic January 2005 election. The Iraqis trek to the polls, despite the threats of terrorists, encouraging democrats throughout the Middle East, but particularly in Lebanon.

Murder, however, provided the ultimate spur. Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was a Lebanese nationalist with the guts to challenge Syria's vicious and corrupt Assad regime. The Valentine's Day 2005 assassination of Hariri pushed hundreds of thousands of Lebanese into the streets.

Lebanese of all political and religious stripes suspected the orders to kill Hariri came from Syria. The assassination was clearly an act of terror designed to thwart Lebanese nationalist goals and democratic aspirations -- and continue Syrian control...

[...]

...Unlike rogue Iran, Syria lacks oil cash. It's an economic basket case and vulnerable to economic pressure. Unlike North Korea, it cannot seal itself in a Stalinist shell. TV satellite dishes dot too many Syrian roofs. Assad can kick journalists out of Damascus, but Syria's borders are permeable.

On its own, an international judicial inquiry won't topple Assad. However, the Syrian military, pressured by U.N. investigators, squeezed by economic sanctions and goaded by a government in exile, just might.

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more foder for the back story angle -

The Enemy of Your Enemy Is Sometimes Your Enemy

By Michael Totten

18 Jan 2006

BEIRUT -- Syria’s exiled former Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam ratchets up his own personal war against Bashar Assad’s ruling Ba’ath Party regime every couple of days. First he implicated Assad in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Then he flirted with the Muslim Brotherhood, Syria’s Sunni Islamist opposition. He openly called for a popular uprising to topple Assad. And now Khaddam has plans to form his own government in exile...

[...]

...Khaddam has since released his own Communiqué numbers one through four.

If he ever does decide to repudiate his past -- a most unlikely event -- few should believe him. Fifty years as a career hardliner Baathist, jailer, murderer, and imperial overlord is a lot. But he hasn’t even tried to defect in a convincing sort of way or say he’s become a new man in his dotage. He thinks it’s all about Bashar Assad. But it’s not. Changing Syria’s moustache-in-chief isn’t the point, especially if the “new” one is the protégé of the late Hafez Assad, the worst Syrian Baathist of all.

Christopher Dickey recently interviewed him for Newsweek. When asked if he thinks he will ever go back to Syria, Khaddam said “Yes, I will be back. And it’s not in the distant future that I’ll be back.” For once the interests of Bashar Assad, the West, and the people of Lebanon are in alignment whether they know it or not. Abdul Halim Khaddam must never go back to Syria.

He is and always has been a tyrant who would be as bad or worse than the current ruler of Syria. At best he’s a useful tool with a short shelf life. Assad is now on the defensive more than ever before. And that’s great. But Khaddam can only be useful if he is pitched over the side right away. He’s no Ahmed Chalabi, as dubious as even that distinction might be. Those who are shopping for a high profile Syrian dissident or Assad replacement need to keep looking. This isn’t the guy.

Michael J. Totten is based in Beirut, Lebanon. He is a TCS columnist whose work has also appeared in the Wall Street Journal, the LA Weekly, and Beirut’s Daily Star.

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more foder for the back story angle -

The Enemy of Your Enemy Is Sometimes Your Enemy

By Michael Totten

18 Jan 2006

BEIRUT -- Syria’s exiled former Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam ratchets up his own personal war against Bashar Assad’s ruling Ba’ath Party regime every couple of days. First he implicated Assad in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Then he flirted with the Muslim Brotherhood, Syria’s Sunni Islamist opposition. He openly called for a popular uprising to topple Assad. And now Khaddam has plans to form his own government in exile...

[...]

...Khaddam has since released his own Communiqué numbers one through four.

If he ever does decide to repudiate his past -- a most unlikely event -- few should believe him. Fifty years as a career hardliner Baathist, jailer, murderer, and imperial overlord is a lot. But he hasn’t even tried to defect in a convincing sort of way or say he’s become a new man in his dotage. He thinks it’s all about Bashar Assad. But it’s not. Changing Syria’s moustache-in-chief isn’t the point, especially if the “new” one is the protégé of the late Hafez Assad, the worst Syrian Baathist of all.

Christopher Dickey recently interviewed him for Newsweek. When asked if he thinks he will ever go back to Syria, Khaddam said “Yes, I will be back. And it’s not in the distant future that I’ll be back.” For once the interests of Bashar Assad, the West, and the people of Lebanon are in alignment whether they know it or not. Abdul Halim Khaddam must never go back to Syria.

He is and always has been a tyrant who would be as bad or worse than the current ruler of Syria. At best he’s a useful tool with a short shelf life. Assad is now on the defensive more than ever before. And that’s great. But Khaddam can only be useful if he is pitched over the side right away. He’s no Ahmed Chalabi, as dubious as even that distinction might be. Those who are shopping for a high profile Syrian dissident or Assad replacement need to keep looking. This isn’t the guy.

Michael J. Totten is based in Beirut, Lebanon. He is a TCS columnist whose work has also appeared in the Wall Street Journal, the LA Weekly, and Beirut’s Daily Star.

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more foder for the back story angle -

The Enemy of Your Enemy Is Sometimes Your Enemy

By Michael Totten

18 Jan 2006

BEIRUT -- Syria’s exiled former Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam ratchets up his own personal war against Bashar Assad’s ruling Ba’ath Party regime every couple of days. First he implicated Assad in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Then he flirted with the Muslim Brotherhood, Syria’s Sunni Islamist opposition. He openly called for a popular uprising to topple Assad. And now Khaddam has plans to form his own government in exile...

[...]

...Khaddam has since released his own Communiqué numbers one through four.

If he ever does decide to repudiate his past -- a most unlikely event -- few should believe him. Fifty years as a career hardliner Baathist, jailer, murderer, and imperial overlord is a lot. But he hasn’t even tried to defect in a convincing sort of way or say he’s become a new man in his dotage. He thinks it’s all about Bashar Assad. But it’s not. Changing Syria’s moustache-in-chief isn’t the point, especially if the “new” one is the protégé of the late Hafez Assad, the worst Syrian Baathist of all.

Christopher Dickey recently interviewed him for Newsweek. When asked if he thinks he will ever go back to Syria, Khaddam said “Yes, I will be back. And it’s not in the distant future that I’ll be back.” For once the interests of Bashar Assad, the West, and the people of Lebanon are in alignment whether they know it or not. Abdul Halim Khaddam must never go back to Syria.

He is and always has been a tyrant who would be as bad or worse than the current ruler of Syria. At best he’s a useful tool with a short shelf life. Assad is now on the defensive more than ever before. And that’s great. But Khaddam can only be useful if he is pitched over the side right away. He’s no Ahmed Chalabi, as dubious as even that distinction might be. Those who are shopping for a high profile Syrian dissident or Assad replacement need to keep looking. This isn’t the guy.

Michael J. Totten is based in Beirut, Lebanon. He is a TCS columnist whose work has also appeared in the Wall Street Journal, the LA Weekly, and Beirut’s Daily Star.

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Dirtweasle,

It certainly opens up the possibility of the syrian people believing that the US is trying to put a figure head puppet in charge and that resulting in the Syrian people and army putting up far more resistance than was expected.

I am not saying that the US would be trying too, just that Syrians might think they were.

Peter.

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Dirtweasle,

It certainly opens up the possibility of the syrian people believing that the US is trying to put a figure head puppet in charge and that resulting in the Syrian people and army putting up far more resistance than was expected.

I am not saying that the US would be trying too, just that Syrians might think they were.

Peter.

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Dirtweasle,

It certainly opens up the possibility of the syrian people believing that the US is trying to put a figure head puppet in charge and that resulting in the Syrian people and army putting up far more resistance than was expected.

I am not saying that the US would be trying too, just that Syrians might think they were.

Peter.

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Hoping that the Syrian Special Forces and Secret Police would pose any type of threat to a conventional invasion verse a Russian’s favorite enemy is wishful thinking. The Iraqi equivalents were much better equipped and far more experienced and they used the only tactic available to them, disbanding. I would venture to say that some joined the insurgency because they preferred to keep on working at their only marketable trade. Special Forces is a money making profession and there are many Saudi’s (and others including Iran) willing to pay for terrorist attacks in Iraq. Their overall effect does not amount to much and is lost in the sea of amateur attacks.

The population will be the same story as Iraq, with the Arab fighter showing his individual bravery, lack of education and large amounts of religious zeal mixed with plenty of propaganda. Overall just another mess unless they decide to use the B-52’s. I do not expect to see full-scale warfare, which we have not yet seen in Iraq, coming to pass unless Israel faces a real threat from Iran or if Iran decided to overtly invade Iraq. I would think a US invasion of Syria would be more of a political statement aimed at Iran and some political factions in Saudi Arabia.

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Hoping that the Syrian Special Forces and Secret Police would pose any type of threat to a conventional invasion verse a Russian’s favorite enemy is wishful thinking. The Iraqi equivalents were much better equipped and far more experienced and they used the only tactic available to them, disbanding. I would venture to say that some joined the insurgency because they preferred to keep on working at their only marketable trade. Special Forces is a money making profession and there are many Saudi’s (and others including Iran) willing to pay for terrorist attacks in Iraq. Their overall effect does not amount to much and is lost in the sea of amateur attacks.

The population will be the same story as Iraq, with the Arab fighter showing his individual bravery, lack of education and large amounts of religious zeal mixed with plenty of propaganda. Overall just another mess unless they decide to use the B-52’s. I do not expect to see full-scale warfare, which we have not yet seen in Iraq, coming to pass unless Israel faces a real threat from Iran or if Iran decided to overtly invade Iraq. I would think a US invasion of Syria would be more of a political statement aimed at Iran and some political factions in Saudi Arabia.

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Hoping that the Syrian Special Forces and Secret Police would pose any type of threat to a conventional invasion verse a Russian’s favorite enemy is wishful thinking. The Iraqi equivalents were much better equipped and far more experienced and they used the only tactic available to them, disbanding. I would venture to say that some joined the insurgency because they preferred to keep on working at their only marketable trade. Special Forces is a money making profession and there are many Saudi’s (and others including Iran) willing to pay for terrorist attacks in Iraq. Their overall effect does not amount to much and is lost in the sea of amateur attacks.

The population will be the same story as Iraq, with the Arab fighter showing his individual bravery, lack of education and large amounts of religious zeal mixed with plenty of propaganda. Overall just another mess unless they decide to use the B-52’s. I do not expect to see full-scale warfare, which we have not yet seen in Iraq, coming to pass unless Israel faces a real threat from Iran or if Iran decided to overtly invade Iraq. I would think a US invasion of Syria would be more of a political statement aimed at Iran and some political factions in Saudi Arabia.

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