We could be in Syria well before 2007

[lucero1148]

Watching CNN's breaking news this morning onthe UN investigation of the Lebabese former PM Hariri the Syrians and their Lebanese cohorts were seriously implicated inthe assassination. Sec of Stayte C. Rice wouldn't say how far the US would go to punishing Syria (using force wasn't out of the question).

Personally I doubt that the US would invade Syria but the writing is on the wall that if the situation permits taking the "crusade into Syria isn't far-fetched.

all best

Patrick

[RMC]

It would be interesting to see how BFC react to an actual operation in Syria. Do they pick another area? I suspect they want to stay in the realm of the hypothetical. Having a hypothetical scenario that doesn't match to one that actually occurred in the same time frame might look silly.

I can't see them making a game based on an alternate OIF in which 4th ID went through Turkey and the Turks tussled with the Kurdish Peshmerga in the north.

[Sirocco]

Originally posted by lucero1148:

Sec of Stayte C. Rice wouldn't say how far the US would go to punishing Syria (using force wasn't out of the question).

I didn't know Lebanon was a US protectorate?

[combatplus2]

Hm - BFC may be keeping the "Backstory" in a kind of rough-draft mode, for good reason...

[Battlefront.com]

Yes, the backstory is being kept "flexible". We already had the Lebanon pullout change the story once

Funny to think that last week we had people saying this was too hypothetical, now this week we have people wondering if we have a backup plan in case military action happens sooner!

And yes, we have a backup plan. But for the sake of the game, not to mention world stability, we hope that nothing fundamentally undermines our storyline. I say that because the likely reasons why we'd have to change the story are definitely NOT GOOD for anybody in real life.

Steve

[(fgm) falco]

Perhaps if the BFC think tank(sic) are concerned about Shock Farce too closely imitating real life they could design a game which features US forces capturing Osama Bin Laden......??

- falco.

[lucero1148]

Lebanon certainly isn't a US protectorate but with US interests in that region very high you can see the process of "realpolitik" as it's played today. Already there have been skirmishes between US and Syrian troops on the Iraqi /Syria border with Syriuan troops KIA. Rice's response by not saying no to military action against Syria is a polite form of brinkmanship. Warning Syria in an oblique way to reign in it's ambitions in Lebanon.

In regards to switching SF to another Mid East scenario that would be a shame as Syria would be quite an interesting opponent to fight against.

Would Iran be suitable? There's always the scenario of taking out their nuclear plants before they're capable of making a nuke. I don't think a real war with Iran would be over as quickly as Iraq.

As for CMSF to change to a hunt for Bin Laden that wouldn't be very interesting. That's an intelligence/police action game with very little actual combat fighting or tactics involved.

[aka_tom_w]

This was posted in the "back story" thread.

It looks like the hypothetical 2007 timeframe may not wait that long.

According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the skirmishing has already started.

[(fgm) falco]

Hmmm - 'very little actual combat fighting'....would that not be the perfect setting for an American army??

Or how about Combat Mission: 'Shlock Farce' - The Hunt for Bin Laden...??

- falco.

[V]

Originally posted by Sirocco:

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by lucero1148:

Sec of Stayte C. Rice wouldn't say how far the US would go to punishing Syria (using force wasn't out of the question).

I didn't know Lebanon was a US protectorate? </font>

[lucero1148]

Falco.

LOL. that's was good.

What's going in Syria/Lebanon makes the backstory for CMSF all the more relevant and reason to keep Syria as the point of action. My thoughts at least.

All best

Patrick

[dalem]

Originally posted by (fgm) falco:

Hmmm - 'very little actual combat fighting'....would that not be the perfect setting for an American army??

Or how about Combat Mission: 'Shlock Farce' - The Hunt for Bin Laden...??

- falco.

Put it back in your pants, needle-schlong.

-dale

[Battlefront.com]

Yeah, don't feed the trolls. And as any student of the continuing war on terrorism (note I don't use capital letters) should know, OBL has been marginalized and perhaps even made completely irrelevant. Capturing him would be a short term PR boost for the US and the West, but it would likely have zero effect on anything else. The time to take him out was 10 years ago while the movement was still forming, not now after the movement has spread and decentralized.

Steve

[(fgm) falco]

Re:Dalem.

Wasnt aware it was OUT of me pants as a matter of fact but....hang on,..just a minute...ah I see - It was just wishful thinking on your part. I understand now.

- falco

[Seanachai]

Welcome to Cambodia...

Well, at least 10-15 years from now, we're going to be able to get some kick-arse Levantine food in this town...

[mazex]

Originally posted by Battlefront.com:

The time to take him out was 10 years ago while the movement was still forming, not now after the movement has spread and decentralized.

Steve

Well, 20 years ago the CIA helped train him and arm him so wouldn't that have been a good opportunity? Those where the days when the extreme fundamentalist muslims gathered in Afganistan like they gather in Iraq today to fight another superpower taking care of regional interests, trained, armed and cheered by the CIA... Has anyone seen "Before the rain"? I really recommend it, it's a lot about the properties of circles...

[RSColonel_131st]

At any rate, I would think that while maintaining the current force levels in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US doesn't have the option of invading Syria anyway.

It's all hypothetical. Rice may hiss and booh at the Syrians, but there aren't enough boots on the ground to present a credible threat of invasion.

There's always the Airforce and Navy, of course, for other kinds of nasty things.

[Abbott]

This morning’s headline at CNN.

.

.

Article at CNN

.

.

UNITED NATIONS (CNN) -- U.N. investigators have found "converging evidence" of Lebanese and Syrian involvement in the February killing of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, a released report has concluded.

.

.

(Snips)

including the brother of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad –

(the Syrian president ) The president told CNN that any Syrian involved in the plot "would be considered as a traitor and most severely punished." "It is treason," he said.

In addition to Maher Assad, the Syrian president's brother, those investigating Hariri's death accused Assef Shawkat, the president's brother-in-law; Jamil al-Sayyed, head of Lebanese intelligence; Hassan Khalil, former head of Syrian intelligence; and Bahjat Suleyman, a personal friend of the Syrian president, as participating in planning the assassination

Syrian officials have denied any involvement in the assassination.

[ October 21, 2005, 06:35 AM: Message edited by: Abbott ]

[aka_tom_w]

Originally posted by RSColonel_131st:

At any rate, I would think that while maintaining the current force levels in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US doesn't have the option of invading Syria anyway.

It's all hypothetical. Rice may hiss and booh at the Syrians, but there aren't enough boots on the ground to present a credible threat of invasion.\

How true is this?

I don't know what military capability (boots on the ground) the US has left (in reserve).

How many men/units/tanks/Strykers would it take to invade Syria?

how much does the US have not committed Iraq and Afghanistan?

Did they move the armour from Korea to Iraq?

I remember hearing abuot a HUGE redployment of at least one whole armoured division from South Korea to Iraq?

What's left to fight with?

just curious

-tom w

[Panzer76]

Bah, while I doubt US has the manpower to put boots in sufficent numbers on the ground in Syria now, it would not matter if they had. Why? Because with GWB falling and record low approval rates in the US, I don't think the US voters would be too keen on sending their boys to yet another quicksand deployment.

[Vanir Ausf B]

Originally posted by V:

Syrian intelligence knows exactly what is happening within their own borders and could break the Sunni insurgencies back from within it's own borders whenever it wants. Or should I say whenever it has too?

No. Less than 10% of insurgents in Iraq are foreign.

EDITED for clarity.

[ October 21, 2005, 07:20 AM: Message edited by: Vanir Ausf B ]

[hellfish]

Originally posted by Panzer76:

Bah, while I doubt US has the manpower to put boots in sufficent numbers on the ground in Syria now, it would not matter if they had. Why? Because with GWB falling and record low approval rates in the US, I don't think the US voters would be too keen on sending their boys to yet another quicksand deployment.

But if GWB isn't worried about reelection and with the Dems so disorganized...

[Andrew H.]

Originally posted by Battlefront.com:

And yes, we have a backup plan. But for the sake of the game, not to mention world stability, we hope that nothing fundamentally undermines our storyline. I say that because the likely reasons why we'd have to change the story are definitely NOT GOOD for anybody in real life.

Steve

CM:Operation Chesterfield - Following the surprise Syrian invasion of Canada, establishment of the Caliphate of Canuckistan and the outlawing of hockey, and over the objections of US citizens who feel that freeing Canada is "not worth it" as well as certain Europeans, who believe that "the sanctions should be given more time to work," a US-led "coalition of the swilling" fights its way into Ontario in an attempt to free the province from its Syrian overlords.

[Dirtweasle]

Originally posted by mazex:

Well, 20 years ago the CIA helped train him and arm him...

UBL? IIRC, the CIA funded the Afghani local or homegrown fighters through the Pakistan version of the CIA. They bought weapons and supplies in vast quanity for the mujahedeen. The mujahedeen had different leadership, not Usama bin Laden.

While the charges that the CIA was responsible for the rise of the Afghan Arabs might make good copy, they don't make good history. The truth is more complicated, tinged with varying shades of gray.

-- CNN

In short, it's likely at least some small amount of material support from CIA through the Pakistanis got to UBL it would be a great exaggeration to say he was trained by or a creature of CIA.

The let's blame everything bad that happens on the CIA' school of thought vastly overestimates the Agency's powers, both for good and ill

-- Holy War, Inc.: Inside the Secret World of Osama bin Laden

...Bin Ladin and his comrades had their own sources of support and training, and they received little or no assistance from the United States.

-- 911 Commision report

Bin Laden has never had any relation with America or American officials. Claims of relation with CIA or other American departments are all unfounded. Since the late seventies he had strong anti-American feeling. He committed himself and family and advised all friends to avoid buying American goods unless it was necessary. He was saying very early in the eighties that the next battle is going to be with America. ... No aid or training or other support have ever been given to bin Laden from Americans. Bin Laden would bring money from individuals donating straight to him. The weapons he had were either captured from the Soviets or bought from other factions.

-- PBS Forntline

[Chops]

More news about Syria -

U.N. Report Sees Syrian Involvement in Hariri's Death

By Robin Wright and Colum Lynch

Washington Post Staff Writers

Friday, October 21, 2005; Page A01

A U.N. investigation has implicated senior Syrian and Lebanese officials in the assassination of Lebanon's leading reformer in a move that U.S. and European officials expect will generate new international pressure on the Syrian government of President Bashar Assad.

In blunt language, the report by German prosecutor Detlev Mehlis concluded that the Valentine's Day bombing of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri and 22 others "could not have been taken without the approval of top-ranked Syrian security officials and could not have been further organized without the collusion of their counterparts in the Lebanese security forces."

The report faulted Damascus for failing to fully cooperate with the probe and cited several officials, including Foreign Minister Farouk Charaa for attempting to mislead the investigation by providing false or inaccurate statements. Nevertheless, Mehlis said many leads now point directly to Syrian security officials.

The findings have been eagerly awaited by U.S. and European officials. Along with a second U.N. report on Lebanon due in days, key members of the Security Council hope to use the findings to increase pressure on the Assad government to end years of meddling in Lebanon and to generally change its behavior both at home and throughout the region, including ending support for extremist groups.

Mehlis concluded that the complex assassination plot involved several months of preparation and was conducted by a sophisticated group with "considerable resources and capabilities." Although the primary motive was political, some of the perpetrators may have been motivated by issues involving fraud, corruption and money laundering, he added.

Syrian officials have repeatedly denied any role in Hariri's slaying. Earlier this week, Syrian Ambassador Imad Moustapha said, "We are absolutely categoric in saying we had nothing to do with Hariri." Messages to Syrian officials in Washington and at the United Nations were not returned last night.

But Mehlis said the slaying followed a "growing conflict" between Hariri and senior Syrian officials, including Assad. Tensions came to a head during a 10-to-15-minute meeting between the two men on Aug. 26, 2004. The Syrian leader informed Hariri that he wanted to extend for three years the term of Lebanese President Emile Lahoud, a close ally of Damascus, in defiance of the Lebanese constitution -- a move Hariri firmly opposed.

Mehlis's report included excerpts of interviews and statements about the meeting, including several by Hariri's associates and his son, alleging that the Syrian president threatened Hariri if he opposed the plan. Saad Hariri said his father told him that Assad said: "This extension is to happen, or else I will break Lebanon over your head."

In a conversation between Hariri and a Syrian deputy foreign minister tape-recorded on Feb. 1, the former prime minister recalled the meeting with Assad as "the worst day of my life." Hariri then told the Syrian official that Lebanon would no longer be ruled from Syria.

Walid Mouallem, the Syrian official and a former ambassador to Washington, warned Hariri that Syrian security services had him cornered and not to "take things lightly," according testimony given to the commission. Two weeks later, Hariri was dead.

When the commission tried to follow up these leads, Syria refused to provide substantive information, Mehlis reported. Assad refused to be interviewed. And interviews conducted last month produced "uniform answers" that contradicted the weight of evidence, he added.

The commission cited one witness's testimony that a white Mitsubishi with a tarpaulin over its flatbed was used as the bomb carrier and crossed into Lebanon from Syria three weeks before the attack. It was driven by a Syrian army colonel, the report said. The day before the bombing, the same witness said he drove a Syrian officer to the St. George area of Beirut on a "reconnaissance exercise" -- in the area where the assassination took place.

The report listed several officials who witnesses alleged knew about or played an advance role in the assassination. They included Gen. Jamil Sayyed, Gen. Mustapha Hamdan, Gen. Raymond Azar -- senior Lebanese officials who have been arrested -- and Gen. Rustum Ghazali, Syria's most recent intelligence chief in Lebanon. The day before the assassination, the report said, witnesses allege that Ghazali met with the head of Hariri's protection detail, emerging "badly shaken."

Another witness said Hamdan had accused Hariri of being pro-Israeli and had said, "We are going to send him on a trip, bye, bye Hariri." After Hariri's assassination, the witness was "strongly reminded not to discuss the conversation with anyone," the report said.

The report also cited an allegation by one witness against Assad's brother-in-law, Maj. Gen. Asef Shawkat. The unidentified witness told the commission that Shawkat forced an Islamic militant, Abu Adass, to record a tape claiming responsibility for the bombing two weeks before it occurred, to create the misimpression that the attack was the act of a lone suicide bomber.

Peppered with riveting detail, the report said Syrian and Lebanese intelligence officials wiretapped Hariri's phone.

But the 54-page report said the full picture would require a more extensive investigation, and called for the international community to help Lebanese authorities continue the probe. U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan announced late yesterday that he will extend the Mehlis mandate to Dec. 15.

The Bush administration said it would not immediately comment. "We intend to read and study it tonight very carefully and decide tomorrow in consultations with other interested governments what the next steps will be," said U.S. Ambassador John R. Bolton. Diplomats expect the report to lead the Security Council to consider action, however.

A second U.N. report on Lebanon is expected next week. It will focus on the implementation of Resolution 1559, which calls for the end of Syria's meddling in Lebanon and the disbanding of armed groups that are tied to Syria.

To follow up on both reports, the United States and other nations have been discussing language for two resolutions that could be introduced as soon as next week to hold the perpetrators to account and add new pressure on Syria, according to U.S. and U.N. officials.

Mehlis's probe included more than 400 interviews and reviews of more than 16,000 pages of documents. Among those interviewed was Ghazi Kanaan, the former Syrian intelligence chief in Lebanon, who committed suicide last week.

Mehlis warned that many Lebanese fear the international community may not follow through, leaving them vulnerable to the return of Syrian military and intelligence services and a revenge campaign. Recent bombings and assassinations have been carried out "with impunity," deterring potential witnesses from testifying, he said.