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Possible Bug with reinforcements?

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I have a scenario that I've designed where there is a 2% each turn of reinforcements arriving and five possible types of reinforcements (after turn 1.) In other words each turn the game should try five times to "roll" a 2% or less and depending on which reinforcement gets the roll I may get one of five different types of tank as reinforcement or I could get multiple reinforcements in one (if I'm really lucky.) The problem is that I've played they scenario at least 20 times now and I've NEVER gotten the reinforcements before turn 10. Is the chance cumulative? The reinforcements always seem to arrive around turn 25 or later (out of 30 turns.) I would think if the chance wasn't cumulative they would arrive at various times during the game not just towards the end.

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